Sweden's COVID response - "Oops"

[Commodus]

In follow-up to my early comment, here is the article I was talking about: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html


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Thanks -- this is why health experts have warned that the virus will be with us for a while. That doesn't mean we'll be living with lockdowns or mask wearing for that entire period, but it will mean that cases will still pop up. Get your vaccine the moment it's available, folks.

 

[soulcougher73]

We've overtaken Italy, and are about to overtake Spain, on the same metric.

UK, US and Sweden may finish "top three".

What a great Olympics this was. USA, USA, USA!!!
winning....

 

[FaaR]

The notion of achieving herd immunity quickly sounds good on a superficial level, but the reality is that it still takes a long time to achieve -- if it didn't, you'd have a full-fledged crisis with a large chunk of the population sick. All you really do by implementing a Sweden-like policy is kill a bunch of people who didn't have to die.

Sweden's strategy was never to aim for achieving herd immunity though - I don't know where that particular piece of disinformation comes from, but it has been pushed by merican reichwingers and idiot fools like Bill Maher, people who just don't want social distancing and shutdowns, so I guess it's an easy canard to point at in their propaganda war of how things should have been done in the U.S. as well.

The actual strategy was simply to suppress the peak rate of spread of the disease below hospitals' capacity to treat victims, because if you run out of intensive care beds the deadliness of this disease goes up several hundred percent. Not shutting down daycare facilities or schools was to make sure hospital staff and other essential workers did not get tied up at home watching over their small children, or having elderly grandparents pressed into service as babysitters.

Where they really effed up was keeping the disease out of elderly care homes though, which led to a relatively high death rate, but numbers can also be somewhat deceptive. Not all countries test for the disease or report statistics in the same way. It's probably going to take a lot of time before statisticians can sort everything through and figure out comparable numbers for each country, if that can even be achieved at all at this stage. Like, it seems some countries did not test elderly people who died at nursing homes for the disease, only elderly who died at hospitals. Or only tested those who died at a hospital during intensive care, but not if they died elsewhere in the hospital.

If you don't have the test data available, it will be impossible to determine true mortality rate figures. It'll be GIGO, sadly.

 

[Commodus]

Sweden's strategy was never to aim for achieving herd immunity though - I don't know where that particular piece of disinformation comes from, but it has been pushed by merican reichwingers and idiot fools like Bill Maher, people who just don't want social distancing and shutdowns, so I guess it's an easy canard to point at in their propaganda war of how things should have been done in the U.S. as well.

The actual strategy was simply to suppress the peak rate of spread of the disease below hospitals' capacity to treat victims, because if you run out of intensive care beds the deadliness of this disease goes up several hundred percent. Not shutting down daycare facilities or schools was to make sure hospital staff and other essential workers did not get tied up at home watching over their small children, or having elderly grandparents pressed into service as babysitters.

Where they really effed up was keeping the disease out of elderly care homes though, which led to a relatively high death rate, but numbers can also be somewhat deceptive. Not all countries test for the disease or report statistics in the same way. It's probably going to take a lot of time before statisticians can sort everything through and figure out comparable numbers for each country, if that can even be achieved at all at this stage. Like, it seems some countries did not test elderly people who died at nursing homes for the disease, only elderly who died at hospitals. Or only tested those who died at a hospital during intensive care, but not if they died elsewhere in the hospital.

If you don't have the test data available, it will be impossible to determine true mortality rate figures. It'll be GIGO, sadly.

Sorry, you're right that it wasn't Sweden's real goal -- the "kill more people so I can go to the mall" camp definitely saw it as the key to herd immunity, though.

I think we can safely say that COVID-19 has been particularly vicious in retirement/long-term care homes. Virtually every affected country I've seen has reported the virus ravaging these homes the moment it gets inside. It's like being trapped in a cage with a lion that hasn't eaten lately... it's just a matter of when you get hurt and how badly.

 

[zzyzxroad]

I think Brazil is going to be the place where we see what the virus looks like unchecked. They are barely testing and numbers are starting to spike. I assume their healthcare system is not as well equipped as us and Europe? They probably also dont have the sourcing power of the US or Europe for PPE and medical equipment?

 

[Bitek]

WTF? Sweden is a US puppet state?

A
Umm, no. Conservatives in the USA were largely pointing to Sweden as the go to method of reaction to the virus. That's all I got out of that post.

Yes, for quite some time, Republicans pointed to Sweden as this alternate model (as opposed to lock downs) in the pandemic response as a way too keep the economy open.

Of course it was based on questionable science at best, and way to early to see the results. However, even as the death toll piled up, they still pushed it.

IDK if trumpers finally backed off, but it was never about the science and keeping people safe, it was always about the money and fuck all hell about regular people.

 

[Bitek]

Sorry, you're right that it wasn't Sweden's real goal -- the "kill more people so I can go to the mall" camp definitely saw it as the key to herd immunity, though.

I think we can safely say that COVID-19 has been particularly vicious in retirement/long-term care homes. Virtually every affected country I've seen has reported the virus ravaging these homes the moment it gets inside. It's like being trapped in a cage with a lion that hasn't eaten lately... it's just a matter of when you get hurt and how badly.

Yes, NJ has actually deployed the national guard to LTC facilities and has made it a specific focus of combating the severe outbreak they had, in addition to the lockdowns. The rates in NJ have dropped precipitously and NJ is moving quickly on reopening.

 

[Starbuck1975]

Sorry, you're right that it wasn't Sweden's real goal -- the "kill more people so I can go to the mall" camp definitely saw it as the key to herd immunity, though.

I think we can safely say that COVID-19 has been particularly vicious in retirement/long-term care homes. Virtually every affected country I've seen has reported the virus ravaging these homes the moment it gets inside. It's like being trapped in a cage with a lion that hasn't eaten lately... it's just a matter of when you get hurt and how badly.

The Swedish model would have worked had they moved more assertively to isolate and protect at risk populations, which was their original intent.

It will be interesting to revisit the long term political, mental health and educational implications of Sweden’s approach.

 

[cytg111]

The Swedish model would have worked had they moved more assertively to isolate and protect at risk populations, which was their original intent.

It will be interesting to revisit the long term political, mental health and educational implications of Sweden’s approach.

??????!?!!!!!!!!???!??????????????


OK THEN NOSTRADAMUS


Why tf is it SO hard, sorry impossible, for some people to admit they were wrong?

Also Sweden is not a shithole country, people are not living paycheck to paycheck, they would have been fine with a lock down.

 

[SmCaudata]

The Swedish model would have worked had they moved more assertively to isolate and protect at risk populations, which was their original intent.

It will be interesting to revisit the long term political, mental health and educational implications of Sweden’s approach.

How would it work? Do the caretakers at the LTC facilities not leave? How do you think it gets into the facility in the first place?

Now, if they ran like old catholic hospitals where the sisters lived on site, I could see this strategy having merit, but without effort to keep the care workers free from disease it was a lost cause. I can't belive that advisors didn't point this out.

In the end, I belive Sweeden made the bet that having more die now, was better long term. We will see.

 

[cytg111]

Finland, Denmark, Norway are each ranging from 200 to 500 deaths and is mostly virus free now and open up again with few restraints... Sweden is at 4.5K+ and still going strong, herd immunity no where in sight plus noone wants to open their borders into sweden... so thats a problem.

 

[Starbuck1975]

??????!?!!!!!!!!???!??????????????


OK THEN NOSTRADAMUS


Why tf is it SO hard, sorry impossible, for some people to admit they were wrong?

Also Sweden is not a shithole country, people are not living paycheck to paycheck, they would have been fine with a lock down.

Every nation’s experience is different. Our knowledge workers have largely been immune to dealing with pandemic beyond some inconveniences, while our gig economy working class got hit hard.

Sweden did make a choice, and they are not a shithole, which means they will learn, adapt and be in a better position the next time something like this occurs, kind of like how South Korea benefitted from its previous lessons.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

The Swedish model would have worked had they moved more assertively to isolate and protect at risk populations, which was their original intent.

Just like socialism always works if you do x y z and don't do a b c right?

 

[Brainonska511]

Every nation’s experience is different

Yes, that is a true statement. But it's also very dismissive of Sweden's utter failure compared to the most comparable countries: it's immediate neighbors. They provide what is likely the closest control you'll get for cross-country comparisons.

 

[theeedude]

How is what Sweden did different from what we are doing with the reopening?

 

[Starbuck1975]

Yes, that is a true statement. But it's also very dismissive of Sweden's utter failure compared to the most comparable countries: it's immediate neighbors. They provide what is likely the closest control you'll get for cross-country comparisons.

We should also respect and acknowledge that the Swedish government and its people made that choice, as opposed to in the US, where partisan pissing matched and incompetence created an uncoordinated and disjointed response.

 

[cytg111]

We should also respect and acknowledge that the Swedish government and its people made that choice, as opposed to in the US, where partisan pissing matched and incompetence created an uncoordinated and disjointed response.

We should also respect and acknowledge Sweden's utter failure compared to the most comparable countries: it's immediate neighbors.

 

[Jhhnn]

How is what Sweden did different from what we are doing with the reopening?

That, sir, is a very good question that nobody really wants to answer. It'll be a helluva fight, but we can win it by putting the little old ladies with walkers up front & blaming the protesters.

 

[H T C]

Spotted this @ techpowerup forums:

Geografiska skillnader i hur Covid19 drabbat Sverige

4,2 avlidna i Covid-19 per 10 000 invånare i landet som helhet. Men det finns stora geografiska skillnader runt om i landet.

www.svt.se

It's in Swedish so you'll need to translate it to your own language but it has a lot of details about Sweden's death rate.

 

[Brainonska511]

We should also respect and acknowledge that the Swedish government and its people made that choice, as opposed to in the US, where partisan pissing matched and incompetence created an uncoordinated and disjointed response.

For the US, it wasn't a partisan pissing match that led to a disjointed response, especially in the time where it really mattered (ie, January to March). It was almost 100% on incompetence. I know you can't help yourself, but try not to both sides it.

And why should I respect Sweden's choice? Compared to it's immediate neighbors, they look like a bunch of morons. What's to respect about that?

 

[Jhhnn]

We should also respect and acknowledge that the Swedish government and its people made that choice, as opposed to in the US, where partisan pissing matched and incompetence created an uncoordinated and disjointed response.

It didn't have to be partisan. Trump made it that way from the start. The way Trump leads his flock is against somebody else, usually their fellow Americans. He's incapable of anything else. It's the only way he knows how to think. That makes him utterly incompetent in this situation.

 

[ch33zw1z]

It didn't have to be partisan. Trump made it that way from the start. The way Trump leads his flock is against somebody else, usually their fellow Americans. He's incapable of anything else. It's the only way he knows how to think. That makes him utterly incompetent in this situation.

Buy hey, the Dems could just keep eating shit and the snowflakes would still cry about it

 

[UNCjigga]

Hey guys, since Republicans and FOX News viewers were so appreciative of Sweden’s Covid strategy, should we assume that they also expect Trump to launch a Commission exploring why our lack of national response has failed???

Sweden's prime minister orders an inquiry into the failure of the country's no-lockdown coronavirus strategy

The number of new COVID-19 cases in Sweden, where the government opted against a strict lockdown, has increased significantly in recent weeks.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[cytg111]

Problems with Swedens covid response has the same roots as with their integration policy, en effect an religious and extreme version of "turn the other cheek". Sweden needs a little shake up. Maybe this is it.

 

[FaaR]

That link up there in jigga's post shows a faulty misinterpretation of data.

Sweden's covid cases are going DOWN, not up. Increased testing finds more infected people, but that's what you'd expect when you test more. The actual number of infected is trending downwards though, by literally every relevant measure (including hospital admissions, patients in critical care and those deceased of the disease.)