Speculation: Ryzen 4000 series/Zen 3

[Thunder 57]

Who is they? NVidia? Or AMD? I'm advocating AMD launch their products all on the same day. I'm pointing out NVidia's constant need to one-up AMD whenever they get uncomfortably close.

Or are you referring to consoles getting a launch date. They don't need an event. Their event was months ago. They get a date, retailers put units up for sale. That simple. In COVID times, there is no physical launch event. It'll be streamed, and 99% of the people won't give a flying F about it. AMD does an announcement October 5th, launches products a week from that date. Fin.

AMD. Why hold up a launch of one product until the other is ready to go? Especially if one won't be ready till after Black Friday or December. And like I said it gets them another day of reviews and headlines/hype. Of course they could be ready around the same time and launch on the same day. That would be the exception rather than the rule though.

 

[A///]

AMD. Why hold up a launch of one product until the other is ready to go? Especially if one won't be ready till after Black Friday or December. And like I said it gets them another day of reviews and headlines/hype. Of course they could be ready around the same time and launch on the same day. That would be the exception rather than the rule though.

Sigh

What are you talking about exactly here? What product of AMD's? The consoles? AMD doesn't make those products. They make a processor and GPU, the rest is up to Microsoft and Sony. That's also not the point I was making in my earlier post. Had you actually ever bothered to listen or read AMD's statements on Zen 3 and RDNA 2, you'd know they planned on launching those before the consoles. We still don't have hard console launch dates yet. There's rumors for the 3rd week of November. You'll also want to brush up and the cat and mouse game NVidia and AMD play when it comes to competitive GPU releases.

P.S. Consoles have been in production for months and have been shipping for a while per Su's interview last month.

 

[Thunder 57]

Sigh

What are you talking about exactly here? What product of AMD's? The consoles? AMD doesn't make those products. They make a processor and GPU, the rest is up to Microsoft and Sony. That's also not the point I was making in my earlier post. Had you actually ever bothered to listen or read AMD's statements on Zen 3 and RDNA 2, you'd know they planned on launching those before the consoles. We still don't have hard console launch dates yet. There's rumors for the 3rd week of November. You'll also want to brush up and the cat and mouse game NVidia and AMD play when it comes to competitive GPU releases.

You make a lot of assumptions and have a way of trying to throw insults into your text. You have no idea what I know or don't know, and just assume I don't know much of anything. I mean everybody knows AMD doesn't make consoles, come on. You won't make many friends with that kind of attitude.

I thought it was pretty clear I was talking about Zen 3 and RDNA2 as I posted just after you and TitusTroy were talking about the same thing. AMD has done a combined launch like that one time in recent memory and it was on a "special" date. Of course it's possible they will do it again. I have stated elsewhere or maybe even in this thread I expect Zen 3 in November. I think RDNA2 will show up a bit before then, so maybe October.

 

[TitusTroy]

So a large new architecture whereby AMD dumped GCN and went for a new one isn't big. That's like saying you don't see Turing as a big change in direction because of the abysmal performance improvements it had over Pascal. I guess if you want to have a dumb, unfounded opinion you're free to have it. I don't think anyone will stop you from digging yourself a bigger hole. Zen 3 could be a total flop for all we know. It might have negligible IPC increase. We literally know nothing apart from what AMD said nearly a year ago.

It's like saying K10 and Bulldozer were trash and not big changes because their performance doesn't make it a big change.

even prior to Navi 1's release it was never expected to compete with Nvidia on the high end...this is the first time in YEARS that AMD actually is maybe trying to compete on the high end...at the very least rumors point to it competing with the 2080ti...and that might be enough based on price and ray-tracing support...who knows if it'll deliver but the hype for Navi 2 is way bigger then Navi 1

Zen 3 could theoretically be a flop but I highly doubt it...it's basically an advanced version of Zen 2...since Nvidia is set to paper launch Ampere on Sept 1st (with availability in mid-September?) AMD has the rest of the year to launch their new products

 

[A///]

You make a lot of assumptions and have a way of trying to throw insults into your text.

Which would be? And what insult? Bold it for me.

You have no idea what I know or don't know, and just assume I don't know much of anything. I mean everybody knows AMD doesn't make consoles, come on. You won't make many friends with that kind of attitude.

You're right. I don't. Your posts do the work.

I thought it was pretty clear I was talking about Zen 3 and RDNA2 as I posted just after you and TitusTroy were talking about the same thing.

If this is the case not once did I infer AMD would launch it on two different dates. Did you mix me and him up and reply to me thinking I was him? I stated AMD would announce Big Navi/RDNA2 and Zen3 on the same day. Titus casted doubt on that happening. You replied to me asking me why AMD would release one but not the other. I never said they'd do that. Please find where I said it because I was calling him out on his silly believe that two big launches wouldn't be done on the same day.

AMD has done a combined launch like that one time in recent memory and it was on a "special" date.

AMD has sometimes selected special dates for new products to align with the product(s). In July, on the 7/7 anniversary AMD launched the XT line up. 7 days after that they announced the Threadripper Pro processors, 7 days after that they announced the Ryzen 4000 APU lineup for OEMs.

Of course it's possible they will do it again. I have stated elsewhere or maybe even in this thread I expect Zen 3 in November. I think RDNA2 will show up a bit before then, so maybe October.

Historically, modern consoles have launched very close to November:

PS1: September 1995
PS2: October 2001
PS2 Slim: November 2004
PS3: November 2006
PS3 Slim: September 2009
PS4: November 2013
PS4 Slim: September

Xbox: November 2001
Xbox 360: November 2005
Xbox One: November 2013

 

[A///]

even prior to Navi 1's release it was never expected to compete with Nvidia on the high end...

I never said it did. The 5700XT rides uncomfortably close against a 2070. If it didn't, NVidia wouldn't have released those Supers so fast within weeks just to undermine AMD, or change pricing. If they weren't competitive, why did NVidia go through all that trouble? AMD and in the past, ATI was competitive at times with NVidia. Rarely did they outright beat NVidia.

his is the first time in YEARS that AMD actually is maybe trying to compete on the high end...at the very least rumors point to it competing with the 2080ti...and that might be enough based on price and ray-tracing support...

You start with rumors and then segue into it being fact-esque in an odd manner by painting it to be true based on AMD's take on ray-tracing and the price that's been floated. Right. Did you somehow miss the benchmarking AMD showed last summer against NVidia's best during Computex? If we're going to label and box things, I don't think RDNA2 is going to be a big change for AMD, because they'll be hitting product goals of a 2 year old video card. That isn't impressive. I'd consider it big if they were rubbing up against a rumored 3090 or Titan. See how that works?

Zen 3 could theoretically be a flop but I highly doubt it...it's basically an advanced version of Zen 2...

It was a silly example to point out the silliness of your own statements. Zen 3 per AMD's press briefings is a new core design, a change in CCX as well as how caches work. There could be numerous other changes. AVX 512 may be available for some reason. It could have a 50% IPC lead over Zen 2 because AMD's team claimed the results would be like a new architecture. Who knows.

since Nvidia is set to paper launch Ampere on Sept 1st (with availability in mid-September?) AMD has the rest of the year to launch their new products

Everyone does a paper launch with hardware to follow a short time later. Even Apple who can command companies at their whim to supply them first and overpay to get it done in time. AMD has between September 1st and November. They need enough lead time to get quarterly sales in. I'd expect Zen 3 and RDNA2 to be announced and launched in either the latter half of September or throughout October. It'll give AMD a nice padded 4th quarter which should drive their stock ticker up even more. The current XT lineup will have some carry over for the end of the third fiscal quarter. I can't comment on Milan. I have as I said in another thread an itchy feeling that the rumors of AMD thinking of a new naming scheme makes sense if they were going to launch Zen3 based mobile processors to OEMs "soon" after the desktop launch given their purchase of increased capacity and possible backroom dealings they have with TSMC since they're now a premium TSMC partner.

 

[TitusTroy]

You start with rumors and then segue into it being fact-esque in an odd manner by painting it to be true based on AMD's take on ray-tracing and the price that's been floated. Right. Did you somehow miss the benchmarking AMD showed last summer against NVidia's best during Computex? If we're going to label and box things, I don't think RDNA2 is going to be a big change for AMD, because they'll be hitting product goals of a 2 year old video card. That isn't impressive. I'd consider it big if they were rubbing up against a rumored 3090 or Titan. See how that works?

Nvidia always puts out new products to put a damper on AMD's new product line regardless of how competitive they are...you keep saying you never said that Navi 1 was competitive to Nvidia's high end yet keep asking why Nvidia released Super versions etc which implies that you do think it was competing...my entire point about Navi 1 is that it should not be compared to Navi 2...you keep bringing in all these other aspects

if Big Navi is comparable or slightly better then a 2080ti it'll be a big win...no 2 ways about it...it doesn't need to compete against the 3090 or whatever Nvidia's new high end Ampere is...depending on price and RTX performance this would be considered a success

one minute you say they will launch Zen 3 and Big Navi together and another sentence you are hedging your bets...which is it?

 

[A///]

Nvidia always puts out new products to put a damper on AMD's new product line regardless of how competitive they are...

NVidia release products on a regular schedule. NVidia's Super line was what RTX 2000 should have been, and it cut into AMD's announcement by a few days. There was the launch, and the back and forth pricing fumble.

.you keep saying you never said that Navi 1 was competitive to Nvidia's high end yet keep asking why Nvidia released Super versions etc which implies that you do think it was competing.

Because you seem incapable of reading posts thoroughly I'll highlight, color and bold the following.

You didn't, but you implied two large releases would never be announced on the same day. Neither did I say or make claim Navi/RDNA1 was meant to compete with a 2080ti or 2080. It competed well with a 2070 until NVidia's little "Aha!" moment. There was no Computex this year. CES is all digital for 2021. There's no real date to announce things. Everything launches around the date of console launches. It makes sense to announce everything on the same day. What's actually stopping AMD here? Nothing.

Edit: You have several people in this thread addressing your erroneous claims based on your feelings and not logic.

...my entire point about Navi 1 is that it should not be compared to Navi 2...you keep bringing in all these other aspects

Again, what the heck are you talking about? Does that mean we can't compare GCN to RDNA? RDNA is a whole new micro-architecture from GCN. RDNA2 is an iterative upgrade of that architecture, of RDNA1.

 

[TitusTroy]

Again, what the heck are you talking about? Does that mean we can't compare GCN to RDNA? RDNA is a whole new micro-architecture from GCN. RDNA2 is an iterative upgrade of that architecture, of RDNA1.

I'll put it in basic terms...Navi 1 was meant to compete at the low/mid range...Navi 2 nicknamed Nvidia killer is rumored to compete on the high end...understand now?

 

[A///]

I'll put it in basic terms...Navi 1 was meant to compete at the low/mid range...Navi 2 nicknamed Nvidia killer is rumored to compete on the high end...understand now?

Imagine a 2070 and 2070 Super being called a midrange model. So what was the point of the RX5500, 5500XT, 5600, 5600XT, 5700, 5700XT cards? Why have so many different models? Imagine being so blinded by your own lack of research you make such comments when benchmarks are freely available.

The AMD Radeon RX 5700 XT & RX 5700 Review: Navi Renews Competition in the Midrange Market

www.anandtech.com

If RDNA just matches a 2080ti, then it's still trash if we go by your logic. It isn't competitive at all. The 2080ti came out in September 2018. By your own "whimsical" logic, RDNA2 is a massive complete failure because it just about matches a 2+ year old card by the time it comes out.

 

[TitusTroy]

Imagine a 2070 and 2070 Super being called a midrange model. So what was the point of the RX5500, 5500XT, 5600, 5600XT, 5700, 5700XT cards? Why have so many different models? Imagine being so blinded by your own lack of research you make such comments when benchmarks are freely available.

The AMD Radeon RX 5700 XT & RX 5700 Review: Navi Renews Competition in the Midrange Market

www.anandtech.com

you do realize the title of the article you linked to actually calls them 'Midrange' cards lol

the September 2018 date is totally irrelevant...the 2080ti today in August 2020 is still a high end card...you don't seem to understand at all...and I will repeat if Big Navi 2 matches or exceeds 2080ti performance at a much lower price then yes it is a huge win

this is the Zen 3 speculation thread, can you please get back on topic

 

[A///]

you do realize the title of the article you linked to actually calls them 'Midrange' cards lol

this is the Zen 3 speculation thread, can you please get back on topic

And Tom's says Top Gaming GPUs.

Best Graphics Cards for Gaming in 2022

Here are the best graphics cards for gaming, from high-end to budget solutions.

www.tomshardware.com

Mid range would be a 1660ti, 2060, 2060 super, etc. I've been on topic far longer than you have. You came waltzing in and posting nonsense. You kept misreading everything I posted just to push your view. Have fun in whatever blitzed reality you live in, sport.

 

[TitusTroy]

And Tom's says Top Gaming GPUs.

Mid range would be a 1660ti, 2060, 2060 super, etc. I've been on topic far longer than you have. You came waltzing in and posting nonsense. You kept misreading everything I posted just to push your view. Have fun in whatever blitzed reality you live in, sport.

dude just take the loss and move on lol...the article you linked to actually calls them Midrange cards lol...and yet you are arguing that they are not midrange lol

can we get back to Zen 3 speculation...

 

[A///]

And ignored/blocked. No time having to babysit someone through something only for them to get every dang detail wrong and mix up posts either on purpose or because they just don't care.

 

[Shmee]

Both of you, cool it, and get back on topic. This is a Zen 3 thread, not for RDNA2 or Geforce 3000 cards, we even have separate threads about those.

A/// and TitusTroy, please stop the arguing, this is your warning.

 

[NostaSeronx]

I've been getting some inclinations that Zen3 has been pushed to 5nm. Anyone on 5nm this year(2020) is actually paying less for final wafers than on 7nm/7nm+.

There however appears to be a trick maybe? TSMC might have slipped in a 5nm higher-perf/low-density/high-yield RTO lib for RTO'ing 7nm+. [Access to HM-Fins/BEOL-mitigations for higher Fmax/Fsustained]

7nm+ EUV fab doesn't have access to the pellicle replacement: particle blower goes ptooey! and no pellice is needed for Mobile or HPC.

Much how Excavator was done on two nodes 28nm/20nm. So, was the 19h Zen3 on 7nm/5nm. Development of both implementations occurred at the same time. With the 5nm parts getting better yields sooner than later.

 

[A///]

I've been getting some inclinations that Zen3 has been pushed to 5nm. Anyone on 5nm this year(2020) is actually paying less for final wafers than on 7nm/7nm+.

There however appears to be a trick maybe? TSMC might have slipped in a 5nm higher-perf/low-density/high-yield RTO lib for RTO'ing 7nm+. [Access to HM-Fins/BEOL-mitigations for higher Fmax/Fsustained]

7nm+ EUV fab doesn't have access to the pellicle replacement: particle blower goes ptooey! and no pellice is needed for Mobile or HPC.

Much how Excavator was done on two nodes 28nm/20nm. So, was the 19h Zen3 on 7nm/5nm. Development of both implementations occurred at the same time. With the 5nm parts getting better yields sooner than later.

So keep mobile Zen3 on 7nm or move to 7nm+? Honestly, I'd normally say this was a super crazy theory but I've also been pondering this. We know that when Huawei got the ban, there was a huge allotment of wafers that AMD and Apple snatched up, then came the others. If you also consider in the number of consoles Microsoft and Sony expect to ship in N time period, then you're left wondering how AMD wouldn't face shortages once again even if they bought all the allotment. There was some rumor a few weeks ago about TSMC developing a special node but it was mis-attributed to being for AMD only when I doubt that's the case. If it was, then it says something about their relationship. PC Gamer reported it, but as usual Reddit and HOCP tore it apart. The general consensus was that TSMC designed a variant of the 5nm node for AMD first, but to be used by whatever partner wants it and can pay for it. Again, I'm not 100% sure on the claims' veracity but it's very interesting. You're maybe the fifth person I know who's said something like this and it's something I'd been keeping to myself because it didn't make much sense initially, and I'm pretty sure I was several beers in during a heatwave here a while back when it popped into my head.

AMD best-buds, TSMC, designed an 'enhanced' 5nm node for its future Ryzen chips

And potentially for its RDNA 3 graphics cards too.

www.pcgamer.com

The idea of a 5/5 launch is out the window, and moving to 5nm now would allow AMD to get rid of some growing pains than if they went on a new node for AM5 for Zen4. I think AMD may go with 5nm+ for Zen 4 or 5, and then slowly move to 3nm? One thing I hadn't read until just now was I was under the impression that Apple was only moving their SoC for their mobile devices to 5nm, but it seems like the press is saying they'd be going with TSMC's 5nm node. And since Apple has a relatively quick ramp to full ARM, it makes a lot of sense to me, Nosta. Apple would effectively pay off 5nm in the long run and make it cheaper for AMD and others to use. TSMC did state back in December their yields for 5nm test runs were >80% which was impressive. It makes a lot of sense. Another reason for AMD to be so silent for so long. If AMD do pull it off, they'll be 2 "generations" ahead of Intel.

Apple going to Apple Silicon is probably the best thing for AMD. It'll put pressure on TSMC to ensure future nodes are flawless and provide decent ROI for architects to work off of. I wonder if AMD will save more money/increase margins per monolithic and per chiplet now if all this is even remotely correct.

There was that pesky rumor of AMD focusing on shorter times between releases, around a 12 month mark unlike their current 12-17 month one.

Edit: It makes sense when you consider that AMD prefers to keep mobile on monolithic for performance reasons, and Zen3 mobile is supposed to be "drastically different" that it may very well kick back TigerLake into the neolithic era of computing.

 

[NostaSeronx]

So keep mobile Zen3 on 7nm or move to 7nm+?

Zen3 APU(K19.5/Cezanne) should be N5x, Zen4 APU(K19.4/Rembrandt) should be N5xE. Based on the info being bashed against my boxes. The decision to also support 5nm is a 2018 thing. If Apple launches so will Cezanne, as AMD is in that premium crowd.

Rembrandt was originally Zen3, but it is now Zen4/RDNA3.

Renoir sisoft in extremely late 2019 => Renoir paper launches in january 2020.
Cezanne sisoft in mid-2020 timeframe => Cezanne paper launch can be anytime after sisoft.

 

[A///]

Zen3 APU(K19.5/Cezanne) should be N5x, Zen4 APU(K19.4/Rembrandt) should be N5xE. Based on the info being bashed against my boxes. The decision to also support 5nm is a 2018 thing. If Apple launches so will Cezanne, as AMD is in that premium crowd.

Rembrandt was originally Zen3, but it is now Zen4/RDNA3.

Renoir sisoft in extremely late 2019 => Renoir paper launches in january 2020.
Cezanne sisoft in mid-2020 timeframe => Cezanne paper launch can be anytime after sisoft.

Sounds about right. I hadn't thought much far out further than Cezanne to be frank with you. Thoughts on desktop Ryzen? Align with my theory or different? The entire situation with how silent AMD have been and how there hasn't been even a trickle of rumor since last year is nothing short of incredible. I get not wanting to hype up any product if there's any chance at disappointment, but I haven't seen something like this in a long time.

 

[TitusTroy]

I've been getting some inclinations that Zen3 has been pushed to 5nm. Anyone on 5nm this year(2020) is actually paying less for final wafers than on 7nm/7nm+.

I haven't heard that anywhere but it would be amazing if true...unfortunately I don't see it...I think Zen 3 will be 7nm+...

TSMC’s Process Is Hitting Yields For 7nm+ Ready For AMD Zen 3

TSMC’s Process Is Hitting Yields For 7nm+ Ready For AMD Zen 3

There was some good news for AMD last week, TSMC has announced that it is well on track in coping with the high volume of requests for 7nm+ chips. TSMC

www.wepc.com

 

[Thunder 57]

Sounds about right. I hadn't thought much far out further than Cezanne to be frank with you. Thoughts on desktop Ryzen? Align with my theory or different? The entire situation with how silent AMD have been and how there hasn't been even a trickle of rumor since last year is nothing short of incredible. I get not wanting to hype up any product if there's any chance at disappointment, but I haven't seen something like this in a long time.

Since we're back on topic my guess is that AMD did a decent job of plugging any leaks. The best example I can come up with right now is the Threadripper chipset leak. Not long after we got word of disinformation from both AMD and Intel. I guess the WRX80 did come to exist in the TR Pro lineup, which I don't recall being leaked ahead of time.

 

[Thunder 57]

I haven't heard that anywhere but it would be amazing if true...unfortunately I don't see it...I think Zen 3 will be 7nm+...

TSMC’s Process Is Hitting Yields For 7nm+ Ready For AMD Zen 3

TSMC’s Process Is Hitting Yields For 7nm+ Ready For AMD Zen 3

There was some good news for AMD last week, TSMC has announced that it is well on track in coping with the high volume of requests for 7nm+ chips. TSMC

www.wepc.com

I wouldn't take anything Nostra says too seriously. AMD clarified this some time ago.

 

[NostaSeronx]

Thoughts on desktop Ryzen? Align with my theory or different? The entire situation with how silent AMD have been and how there hasn't been even a trickle of rumor since last year is nothing short of incredible.

I haven't heard that anywhere but it would be amazing if true...unfortunately I don't see it...I think Zen 3 will be 7nm+...

TSMC’s Process Is Hitting Yields For 7nm+ Ready For AMD Zen 3

TSMC’s Process Is Hitting Yields For 7nm+ Ready For AMD Zen 3

There was some good news for AMD last week, TSMC has announced that it is well on track in coping with the high volume of requests for 7nm+ chips. TSMC

www.wepc.com

The Milan/Vermeer situation is a bit more awkward than the mobile side. Any actual volume is probably only going to be on 5nm.

7nm+ and 5nm were done at the same time. Primary do to lower support of 7nm+ and higher support of 5nm. Points to 5nm EUV being where all Zen3 is going to be. It also helps that N5 will eventually be capable of being fabbed in the US. Fab 18 also is pure 5nm currently, w/ a slotted capacity of 120K wafer starts per month after 2021. 14nm at GloFo only went up to 40K~50K wafer starts, for example.

Opposite scenario of Excavator 20nm => Excavator 28nm. 5nm is high volume, high yield, and has a competitive discount(financial horsepower neigh?).

 

[A///]

The Milan/Vermeer situation is a bit more awkward than the mobile side. Any actual volume is probably only going to be on 5nm.

7nm+ and 5nm were done at the same time. Primary do to lower support of 7nm+ and higher support of 5nm. Points to 5nm EUV being where all Zen3 is going to be. It also helps that N5 will eventually be capable of being fabbed in the US. Fab 18 also is pure 5nm currently, w/ a slotted capacity of 120K wafer starts per month after 2021. 14nm at GloFo only went up to 40K~50K wafer starts, for example.

Opposite scenario of Excavator 20nm => Excavator 28nm. 5nm is high volume, high yield, and has a competitive discount(financial horsepower neigh?).

I'm trying to work my head around the pros and cons of running Vermeer on 5nm while running Milan on 7nm+. The chiplets in the Epycs are top cream, so they may not totally benefit from a shrink. IIRC one of TSMC's 7nm+ variants supposedly brings in 10% lower energy use or around there. That may be useful especially if AMD can also improve clocks for Epyc. Makes sense to run Vermeer on 5nm since they'll have a better idea but as you said it's still a weird situation because they're running multiple nodes of chiplets they may not actually be able to fully bin. Unless they go 5nm everything?

I thought the TSMC AZ plant was to supply US contractors who worked in the defense industry alongside the armed forces? That's the common argument because it was rumored it was for Intel, but it didn't make sense. It's not a big plant either from what I've been told.

 

[A///]

Since we're back on topic my guess is that AMD did a decent job of plugging any leaks. The best example I can come up with right now is the Threadripper chipset leak. Not long after we got word of disinformation from both AMD and Intel. I guess the WRX80 did come to exist in the TR Pro lineup, which I don't recall being leaked ahead of time.

So what I had heard was that AMD was planning on it and had some stuff down. The whole situation made sense later on as it was a persistent rumor. It got a revival not long before 7/14. In the same manner the XT line was initially and even up until launch regarded as pure speculation. The base TR doesn't make a whole lot of sense as it's a fairly restricted workstation system that really is held back by its capabilities compared to the competing product. Though the competing product doesn't offer as good performance as AMD can. A pimped out P620 should provide amazing performance for years to come. It's going to be a while until next-gen hardware on AM5 and future Intel hits their stride. People also thought the 3990X was a BS product until it was announced. Granted no one believed that MSI leak either.

LGA1159 doesn't exist, but the major Intel "leak" from a few weeks ago makes me wonder if that material had been accessed a long time ago to make fake slides. I'm going to go for the best I can with Z3. I may invest in Threadripper with the next Zen version or Zen 5. It'd be more of a show piece than something I can say will get a lot of use. I'd be okay with a 4950X. Like, more than okay.