Speculation: Ryzen 4000 series/Zen 3

[A///]

GPU leaks usually starts when the AIB partners starts completing their cards. Since there are one of those might mean there will initially be only AMD-secured channels - no AIBs involved. This was the situation with Radeon VII - nobody knew it was coming since the job was done by AMD themselves.

Both Navi 21 (Sienna Cichlid) and Navi 22 (Navy Flounder) are being rather actively brought up in open source drivers. This means the release is close.

You may be onto something here. I recall being told before the "press" reported it that AMD was skipping blowers on their in-house cards and going for axial cooling and not waiting on AIBs. This long delay in getting the product specs and hardware to AIBs you mention falls in line with what I'd been told and later reported by various blogs and news sites. Given modern cases and just how improved fans have become over the years, the worry of axial coolers using warm or hot air isn't a huge issue anymore. We'll have to see in the coming weeks then.

 

[A///]

You wouldn't want to release Zen 3 and trigger system build hype with RTX 3000 out and no alternative of your own. I bet we get everything in October.

That's a valid point, didn't think of it this way. Besides we have precedent with the 07/07 launch last year.

If anything they might release the GPU earlier (as people can upgrade it first and then replace the rig) but only when the schedules are off more than a month. Considering Console ramp-up is eating up wafers till at least september/october and it takes more to assemble a GPU (from a working die) they can't really be that far apart.

That is a very good point @GoodRevrnd!

Gideon, the 7/7 release was graced with the XT line for processors. What date would be useful to announce a major product release stack? They'd need to do it well in advance of Black Friday and Christmas to capture as many sales as they can. Also enough lead time to deal with shipping services who are already bogged down with deliveries due to..

 

[A///]

AMD focus is high margins markets. And that's server/Epyc market first.
We only get Ryzen almost sooner because bad yields of Epyc chiplets can be good Ryzen chiplets.

Mobile requires chiplets with very good yields for lower power consumption, and those in first months of production will go to Epyc.

That's not really true. EPYC doesn't share silicon with any of the mobile Ryzen products. AMD has, at least in the past, been financially limited in what risks they want to take with their new Zen-based designs. You are correct in asserting that the highest margins are in the server market, which is why AMD prioritized their entire design effort towards server/workstation products (EPYC). Lower-margin, high-volume efforts (mobile, low-power) get short shrift. That's been the case up through Renoir. Renoir's adoption appears to have been quite enthusiastic, though, and if OEMs are privately asking AMD to bring Zen3 to the mobile market as quickly as possible, then maybe AMD will reprioritize development efforts.

Does Zen 3 abandon monolithic design for chiplets? Zen mobile has been monolithic up until now unless something was changed. He's only right on Epyc binning, and even then, it isn't like it's hard to bin for it since Epyc has strict requirements and they don't play fast and loose with chiplets. If OEMs approached AMD and asked them to deliver Zen 3 mobile earlier than they planned because their internal figures show Ryzen is more popular with buyers, then that is believable. If AMD succeed with Zen 3 and then Zen 4 12-16 months post launch of Zen 3, then it is very likely AMD will be in the position to dictate to OEMs what they should do like their competitor can.

I'm more curious if AMD will look into revitalizing the K12 project down the line.

 

[soresu]

I'm more curious if AMD will look into revitalizing the K12 project down the line.

It would probably require a full rebase on the coming v9-A standard anyways, to say nothing of the likely lack of chiplets in its original design.

At this point they would probably be better off starting over from scratch, even if using K12 as a sounding point for the design.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Does Zen 3 abandon monolithic design for chiplets?

Raven Ridge did not share silicon with Naples/Summit Ridge. Picasso did not share silicon with Pinnacle Ridge. Renoir did not share silicon with Rome/Matisse. Cezanne will not share silicon with Milan/Vermeer.

 

[A///]

Raven Ridge did not share silicon with Naples/Summit Ridge. Picasso did not share silicon with Pinnacle Ridge. Renoir did not share silicon with Rome/Matisse. Cezanne will not share silicon with Milan/Vermeer.

A simple "no" would have sufficed. It was clear the discussion was about mobile parts. No brainer to assume chiplet doesn't share the same silicon as mobile parts. I also never suggested it did. The user who quoted me was talking about chiplets when chiplets aren't used for mobile Ryzen.

It would probably require a full rebase on the coming v9-A standard anyways, to say nothing of the likely lack of chiplets in its original design.

At this point they would probably be better off starting over from scratch, even if using K12 as a sounding point for the design.

It's a rare discussion piece. I've brought it up with people in chatrooms and on Twitter and the usual response is a "What are you talking about?" It'll be interesting if AMD ever decides to update it and release something but who knows.

 

[coercitiv]

no way...no chance...these are huge releases, you're not going to release both together...you need to give each product its own time in the spotlight

Just like they gave Zen 2 and Navi their own time in the spotlight... on the same day in July 7 2019.

 

[DrMrLordX]

A simple "no" would have sufficed. It was clear the discussion was about mobile parts. No brainer to assume chiplet doesn't share the same silicon as mobile parts. I also never suggested it did. The user who quoted me was talking about chiplets when chiplets aren't used for mobile Ryzen.

@Mk pt errnoneously suggested that server parts and mobile parts would compete for chiplets based on binning/voltage characteristics. I responded to him to remind him that they use completely different silicon, making such a competition impossible.

 

[A///]

@Mk pt errnoneously suggested that server parts and mobile parts would compete for chiplets based on binning/voltage characteristics. I responded to him to remind him that they use completely different silicon, making such a competition impossible.

Yeah, and I responded with my rhetorical at him. I didn't realize I'd included you in the quote, my bad. I read his reply yesterday morning after I'd gotten out of bed and wtf'd at it and forgot to post until earlier tonight. Though I can't blame him/her for thinking chiplets were used across the landscape of AMD products.

 

[raghu78]

people here keep saying late 2020 for Zen 3 but I think it'll be September/October...main reason being that AMD is also releasing a new generation of GPU's in late 2020 and they aren't going to release both Big Navi and Zen 3 in the same month...Big Navi is rumored to be coming in October/November...so it only makes sense for Zen 3 to be released in September

AMD launched Zen 2 and RX 5700 series GPUs together. I would think AMD want to launch Zen 3 and RDNA2 together. They key contest this fall is Ampere vs RDNA2.. It would not surprise me if AMD want to make the bold claim of the world's fastest gaming platform provided they have the products to backup that claim, which I think is possible.

 

[Kenmitch]

I'll guess annonced 9/9 with 9 total skus split between cpu/gpu. Available 10/10 with a 10th hail mary jaw dropper sku....lol

 

[moinmoin]

It's a rare discussion piece. I've brought it up with people in chatrooms and on Twitter and the usual response is a "What are you talking about?" It'll be interesting if AMD ever decides to update it and release something but who knows.

I think the opportunity to make a difference in the ARM market is gone for AMD. Nuvia is trying to bring better than Apple efficiency and performance to it, and AMD is better off focusing on the x86 market and keeping it dominating in the server market.

I do think AMD is still actively using and working with ARM internally, just only for auxiliary purposes like the Security Processor etc.

 

[mikk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1295391582951096320

Renoir 156 mm² die size.

 

[A///]

I think the opportunity to make a difference in the ARM market is gone for AMD. Nuvia is trying to bring better than Apple efficiency and performance to it, and AMD is better off focusing on the x86 market and keeping it dominating in the server market.

I do think AMD is still actively using and working with ARM internally, just only for auxiliary purposes like the Security Processor etc.

I must have missed something from last weeks report. Aside from the benchmarks Nuvia published and claimed performance, do they have a physical product that can be third party verified or was that a "just trust us" headline grab?

 

[A///]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1295391582951096320

Renoir 156 mm² die size.

Wrong thread. You need to post that in the following thread. The Zen 2 APUs/"Renoir" discussion thread.

Zen 2 APUs/"Renoir" discussion thread

What do you expect from Zen 2 APUs/"Renoir"?

forums.anandtech.com

Ryzen 4000 APU and Renoir are Zen 2 based, this is the Ryzen 4000/Zen 3 thread. APUs and Mobiles are one generation ahead in naming.

 

[moinmoin]

I must have missed something from last weeks report. Aside from the benchmarks Nuvia published and claimed performance, do they have a physical product that can be third party verified or was that a "just trust us" headline grab?

You likely didn't miss anything. The main point is AMD is doing well in the server market (they reached a market share of 10% ahead of time according to the Q2 results talks three weeks ago) and for any ARM product to have decent margins would need to go in direct competition with that. What motivation would AMD have to do that instead focusing on what they currently do well?

 

[A///]

What motivation would AMD have to do that instead focusing on what they currently do well?

This is the only relevant part of your post. I'd already commented on AMD's quarterly performance earlier in a few threads. If the market starts wanting ARM processors, that will be your motivation. This may be painful for you to read, but neither Intel nor AMD dictate what the market needs. The market provides a reason for wanting a specific and or range of products. If Nuvia somehow ever come out with actual hardware and it creams Intel and AMD's then best, then there is your incentive. For the entire server market to change including proprietary software, a fine balance of chicken and egg must come to fruition. If you've got exemplary ARM processors but no good software to use them to their full extent, you're stuck with a stunted stack. If you've got amazing software but terrible ARM, there is your stunted stack.

GN made a nice video a few nights ago. AMD and NVidia get to dictate the market to a certain extent now with AMD offering up PCIE4.0 and Intel has yet to. Intel will fight an uphill marketing battle. You could retort with "Most buyers don't know that stuff and don't care," but even a first year marketing student that gets high every day could tell you consumers see a larger, shinier number and want that, not the old stuff. Even if the old generation is fine and has yet to be saturated by any GPU lest certain situations where the hardware requires a small loan.

 

[TitusTroy]

Just like they gave Zen 2 and Navi their own time in the spotlight... on the same day in July 7 2019.

Navi was never expected to compete with Nvidia on the high end...Big Navi is the first time in years that AMD is trying to stand toe to toe with Nvidia's best...the nickname for Big Navi is Nvidia Killer...

Zen 3 and Big Navi are both huge releases on their own and I highly doubt AMD would release them together...I could be wrong and if I am I'll be the first to admit it

 

[A///]

Navi was never expected to compete with Nvidia on the high end...Big Navi is the first time in years that AMD is trying to stand toe to toe with Nvidia's best...the nickname for Big Navi is Nvidia Killer...

Zen 3 and Big Navi are both huge releases on their own and I highly doubt AMD would release them together...I could be wrong and if I am I'll be the first to admit it

Navi was RDNA. RDNA was a new architecture from RTG. Navi and Zen2 were announced and shown off at Computex 2019. It uses some elements from GCN. Navi/RDNA1 was a big thing for AMD. RDNA cards were capable of touching NVidia's cards. A month after their release, NVidia countered with their Supers line. RDNA2/Navi2/Big Navi is a generational iteration of Navi/RDNA. RDNA2/Big Navi power the upcoming next-gen consoles.

Zen2 was a big upgrade from Zen and the fix, Zen+. Both were announced and shown off at Computex 2019. Here's a supercut of the entire keynote AMD delivered. You may have doubts, but history has precedent. You also seem to ignore Intel barfs up everything they work on during their Architecture Days.

 

[TitusTroy]

Navi was RDNA. RDNA was a new architecture from RTG. Navi and Zen2 were announced and shown off at Computex 2019. It uses some elements from GCN. Navi/RDNA1 was a big thing for AMD. RDNA cards were capable of touching NVidia's cards. A month after their release, NVidia countered with their Supers line. RDNA2/Navi2/Big Navi is a generational iteration of Navi/RDNA. RDNA2/Big Navi power the upcoming next-gen consoles.

Zen2 was a big upgrade from Zen and the fix, Zen+. Both were announced and shown off at Computex 2019. Here's a supercut of the entire keynote AMD delivered. You may have doubts, but history has precedent. You also seem to ignore Intel barfs up everything they work on during their Architecture Days.

I didn't mention anything about Zen 2...Zen 2 was a nice step up...I said Navi was never expected to compete on the high end in the GPU market and it wasn't

today AMD came out with new A520 budget Zen 2 boards (with Zen 3 support)...hopefully that means Zen 3 is close...

 

[A///]

I didn't mention anything about Zen 2...Zen 2 was a nice step up...I said Navi was never expected to compete on the high end in the GPU market and it wasn't

today AMD came out with new A520 budget Zen 2 boards (with Zen 3 support)...hopefully that means Zen 3 is close...

You didn't, but you implied two large releases would never be announced on the same day. Neither did I say or make claim Navi/RDNA1 was meant to compete with a 2080ti or 2080. It competed well with a 2070 until NVidia's little "Aha!" moment. There was no Computex this year. CES is all digital for 2021. There's no real date to announce things. Everything launches around the date of console launches. It makes sense to announce everything on the same day. What's actually stopping AMD here? Nothing.

Edit: You have several people in this thread addressing your erroneous claims based on your feelings and not logic.

 

[TitusTroy]

You didn't, but you implied two large releases would never be announced on the same day. Neither did I say or make claim Navi/RDNA1 was meant to compete with a 2080ti or 2080. It competed well with a 2070 until NVidia's little "Aha!" moment. There was no Computex this year. CES is all digital for 2021. There's no real date to announce things. Everything launches around the date of console launches. It makes sense to announce everything on the same day. What's actually stopping AMD here? Nothing.

Edit: You have several people in this thread addressing your erroneous claims based on your feelings and not logic.

my point was that I don't consider Navi 1 to be on the same level as Big Navi...a few people mentioned that AMD announced Navi 1 and a CPU launch on the same day...my point was neither of those were on the same level as far as performance or anticipation as Zen 3 and Big Navi

when I'm right about AMD announcing Zen 3 and Big Navi separately I will be expecting an apology from all the members who disagreed

 

[Thunder 57]

You didn't, but you implied two large releases would never be announced on the same day. Neither did I say or make claim Navi/RDNA1 was meant to compete with a 2080ti or 2080. It competed well with a 2070 until NVidia's little "Aha!" moment. There was no Computex this year. CES is all digital for 2021. There's no real date to announce things. Everything launches around the date of console launches. It makes sense to announce everything on the same day. What's actually stopping AMD here? Nothing.

Edit: You have several people in this thread addressing your erroneous claims based on your feelings and not logic.

I disagree. They will launch when they are ready. Why hold one up until the other is ready? Also, then you get two days of headlines rather than one. And was that edit really necessary? For us plebs not in the know it's all just guesswork.

 

[A///]

my point was that I don't consider Navi 1 to be on the same level as Big Navi...a few people mentioned that AMD announced Navi 1 and a CPU launch on the same day...my point was neither of those were on the same level as far as performance or anticipation as Zen 3 and Big Navi

when I'm right about AMD announcing Zen 3 and Big Navi separately I will be expecting an apology from all the members who disagreed

So a large new architecture whereby AMD dumped GCN and went for a new one isn't big. That's like saying you don't see Turing as a big change in direction because of the abysmal performance improvements it had over Pascal. I guess if you want to have a dumb, unfounded opinion you're free to have it. I don't think anyone will stop you from digging yourself a bigger hole. Zen 3 could be a total flop for all we know. It might have negligible IPC increase. We literally know nothing apart from what AMD said nearly a year ago.

It's like saying K10 and Bulldozer were trash and not big changes because their performance doesn't make it a big change.

 

[A///]

I disagree. They will launch when they are ready. Why hold one up until the other is ready? Also, then you get two days of headlines rather than one.

Who is they? NVidia? Or AMD? I'm advocating AMD launch their products all on the same day. I'm pointing out NVidia's constant need to one-up AMD whenever they get uncomfortably close.

Or are you referring to consoles getting a launch date. They don't need an event. Their event was months ago. They get a date, retailers put units up for sale. That simple. In COVID times, there is no physical launch event. It'll be streamed, and 99% of the people won't give a flying F about it. AMD does an announcement October 5th, launches products a week from that date. Fin.