Some polls now have Romney ahead.

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buckshot24

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
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jackstar7 said:
You should really focus on presidential elections is the point being made. Especially due to the higher turnout.
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I haven't seen any appreciable differences in party make up in either case. But even if I did the numbers line up to near parity between those saying they are democrats or republicans.

The entire point is that 2008 was the exception, as far as party identification is concerned, not the rule.
 
F

Farang

Lifer
Jul 7, 2003
10,913
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buckshot24 said:
Lol

Ok, that is very interesting spin. Is that why Clinton was in Minnesota as well?
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It's not spin, I think it's a valid assessment. I understand the other view is that PA is opening as the nation as a whole goes towards Romney--my view is that if this were the case, you'd see the rising tide elsewhere. That is not what I am seeing. It doesn't make sense for him to spend his time in PA if he is winning OH.. it's like Obama going to NC. It's a vanity state.

Basically if Romney were making progress in OH, or they felt he was winning there.. he would stay there and lock it down
 
First

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
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Farang said:
It's not spin, I think it's a valid assessment. I understand the other view is that PA is opening as the nation as a whole goes towards Romney--my view is that if this were the case, you'd see the rising tide elsewhere. That is not what I am seeing. It doesn't make sense for him to spend his time in PA if he is winning OH.. it's like Obama going to NC. It's a vanity state.

Basically if Romney were making progress in OH, or they felt he was winning there.. he would stay there and lock it down
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Yeah that's def desperate. Dems have like 1M registered voter advantage there and huge amounts of ground game advantage. They've spent no time in the state and are still up over 5 points. That shit is through. Might as well say Obama's taking NC if Romney thinks he's taking PA. Hell even Kerry won PA by 2.5 points.
 
jackstar7

jackstar7

Lifer
Jun 26, 2009
11,679
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And yet, 2000 looks a lot like 2008:

2000 – 39D, 35R, 27I

Just a slight shift of R to I to get the '08 numbers.


So again, anomaly not found.


In fact, the trend I see is that 2010 had low D turnout comparatively, again making it the outlier.
 
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buckshot24

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
91
Farang said:
It's not spin, I think it's a valid assessment. I understand the other view is that PA is opening as the nation as a whole goes towards Romney--my view is that if this were the case, you'd see the rising tide elsewhere. That is not what I am seeing. It doesn't make sense for him to spend his time in PA if he is winning OH.. it's like Obama going to NC. It's a vanity state.

Basically if Romney were making progress in OH, or they felt he was winning there.. he would stay there and lock it down
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I think they feel they are going to win Ohio. They most likely have internal polls showing this.

Why is anybody going to Minnesota do you think?
 
F

Farang

Lifer
Jul 7, 2003
10,913
3
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buckshot24 said:
I think they feel they are going to win Ohio. They most likely have internal polls showing this.

Why is anybody going to Minnesota do you think?
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I think Minnesota makes the most sense as a preemptive move. Obama campaign feels they have a durable electoral advantage. Romney campaign also sees this. They see Romney campaign try to 'expand the map' as a secondary strategy, and move to cut it off.

What Minnesota doesn't seem to be, in my view, is a strategy that aims to create a new electoral college scenario because the campaign thinks their options are twindling. If that were the case I think it's more likely they'd try to re-engage NC as they shifted resources to VA
 
C

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
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Every poker player knows that if you're playing 5-card draw and the guy next to you says he is happy with the five he got dealt initially, that always means that he has a killer hand.
 
buckshot24

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
91
Farang said:
I think Minnesota makes the most sense as a preemptive move. Obama campaign feels they have a durable electoral advantage. Romney campaign also sees this. They see Romney campaign try to 'expand the map' as a secondary strategy, and move to cut it off.

What Minnesota doesn't seem to be, in my view, is a strategy that aims to create a new electoral college scenario because the campaign thinks their options are twindling. If that were the case I think it's more likely they'd try to re-engage NC as they shifted resources to VA
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And you're saying that you aren't spinning?

If they were trying to crush mitts map they would go after states where Mitt absolutely has to win, not a state that hasn't gone Republican since 1972. Only in spin rooms does campaigning in blue states less than a week out show weakness of the Republican candidate.
 
buckshot24

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
91
jackstar7 said:
As I believe has been shown in this thread, he actually was not right in '08. You should look into that.
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Your article points out how right he was in 2008 when it comes to party identification. Plus he was very close with the popular vote as well.
 
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