Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[buckshot24]

And 6 isn't 8, the last I checked.



It wasn't a presidential election year. And this isn't 2010.

The turnout will be significantly closer to 2008 than 2010. Pretty much all of the polling is consistent on that score.

So in your world 2010 was just an anomaly and things will get back to normal in 2012. Whatever dude, we'll see next tuesday. 2008 was the anomaly.

 

[Todd33]

So in your world 2010 was just an anomaly and things will get back to normal in 2012. Whatever dude, we'll see next tuesday. 2008 was the anomaly.

I just read where you are getting all your info, you parrot. Karl Rove, almost word for word. How were his 2006 predictions? LOL, going to be fun next Wednesday, but doubt you will show your face.

 

[buckshot24]

I just read where you are getting all your info, you parrot. Karl Rove, almost word for word. How were his 2006 predictions? LOL, going to be fun next Wednesday, but doubt you will show your face.

I don't know what you're talking about. -hint- What did Rove say and when did he say it? What did I say and how long have I been saying it?

 

[jackstar7]

So in your world 2010 was just an anomaly and things will get back to normal in 2012. Whatever dude, we'll see next tuesday. 2008 was the anomaly.

2010 Turnout: ~41% of eligible
2008 Turnout: ~60% of eligible
2006 --- ~40%
2004 ~60%
2002 <40%
2000 ~55%

Seeing the pattern?


source: http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm


EDIT: Also, sure doesn't look like 2008 was an anomaly.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

So in your world 2010 was just an anomaly and things will get back to normal in 2012. Whatever dude, we'll see next tuesday. 2008 was the anomaly.

It's not "my world". It's everyone's world.

God, I'm wasting time arguing with someone who dissects polls but doesn't even understand something as basic as the difference in turnout between presidential and non-presidential election cycles.

The right's disdain for intellect, logic and education sure is obvious around here.

 

[woolfe9999]

Charles, you've said one thing which sums up this impasse succinctly:

Sorry, but if it's you against a large number of independently-operating professional pollsters, I'll go with the pollsters.

This is the old non-dilemma: do I trust the people who do this for a living, or the anonymous interwebs guy who says he knows better? Hmm.

Arguing with armchair pollsters is much like arguing with armchair climatologists who, not coincidentally, happen to be some of the same people...

 

[buckshot24]

It's not "my world". It's everyone's world.

God, I'm wasting time arguing with someone who dissects polls but doesn't even understand something as basic as the difference in turnout between presidential and non-presidential election cycles.

The right's disdain for intellect, logic and education sure is obvious around here.

Who is saying mid term elections are exactly the same as presidential elections? It's about the attitude of the electorate smart guy. 2010 was a historic blow out and yet the electorate is going to go right back to 2008. Whatever.

 

[buckshot24]

2010 Turnout: ~41% of eligible
2008 Turnout: ~60% of eligible
2006 --- ~40%
2004 ~60%
2002 <40%
2000 ~55%

Seeing the pattern?


source: http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm


EDIT: Also, sure doesn't look like 2008 was an anomaly.

Overall turnout percentages were never a point of contention. The 2008 "anomaly" had more to do with D vs R turnout.

 

[jackstar7]

Overall turnout percentages were never a point of contention. The 2008 "anomaly" had more to do with D vs R turnout.

The point is that your blowout in 2010 involved a vastly smaller % of the population.

Hard to compare that to presidential election years, no?

 

[zinfamous]

2010 Turnout: ~41% of eligible
2008 Turnout: ~60% of eligible
2006 --- ~40%
2004 ~60%
2002 <40%
2000 ~55%

Seeing the pattern?


source: http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm


EDIT: Also, sure doesn't look like 2008 was an anomaly.

...and don't forget that only ~7% of this country now approve of what 2010 brought us.

 

[buckshot24]

The point is that your blowout in 2010 involved a vastly smaller % of the population.

Hard to compare that to presidential election years, no?

The point is that it is that we shouldn't ignore 2010 when trying to figure out what the turnout will be like.

 

[buckshot24]

...and don't forget that only ~7% of this country now approve of what 2010 brought us.

Republicans won't lose the house and they may gain the senate.

 

[First]

Republicans may gain the senate.

lulz troll.

 

[jackstar7]

The point is that it is that we shouldn't ignore 2010 when trying to figure out what the turnout will be like.

I thought 2010 was an anomaly though? Or are you saying it was the norm?

 

[Charles Kozierok]

The point is that it is that we shouldn't ignore 2010 when trying to figure out what the turnout will be like.

Yes, we should.

2010 was "historic" because there was low Dem turnout. That doesn't mean you can then turn around and say that 2010 being "historic" means that 2012 will also be "historic".

As for the senate, which seats are the Republicans going to gain?

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Back in the land of reality, several new swing state polls out today, all of them except for the hack Rasmussen showing Obama with leads. Just like the last couple of days.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Republicans won't lose the house and they may gain the senate.

I am unaware of any credible path by which the Republicans could retake the Senate, so please enlighten us with which seats you expect to pick up that would make that possible.

 

[Farang]

I'm convinced the media keeps calling this a toss-up in the name of "fairness" and/or to boost their ratings. Politico has a video up with two analysts talking about how polls aren't always accurate. They go on to show CNN's final Ohio poll, which had Kerry up by 4. Then Bush won by 2, 'more than anyone predicted.'

Then I checked the RCP average for Ohio in 2004. It was something like 2.1. CNN was the only one that had Bush in front, the rest were around Bush 1-3.

 

[buckshot24]

I thought 2010 was an anomaly though? Or are you saying it was the norm?

As far as Republican vs Democrat it wasn't too far out of whack with historic levels.

2004 CNN exit polls

R 37
D 37
I 26

2008 CNN exit polls

R 32
D 39
I 29

2006

D 38
R 36
I 26

2010

D 36
R 36
I 28 (voted Republican 56-38)

2008 is the election that was out of whack. Historically party ID is pretty even and I see no reason to believe that it won't be this year as well. 2008 was an anomaly.

 

[buckshot24]

I am unaware of any credible path by which the Republicans could retake the Senate, so please enlighten us with which seats you expect to pick up that would make that possible.

No thanks. We'll see next Tuesday.

 

[xBiffx]

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1143a11TrackingNo11.pdf

Partisan divisions in this survey, Democrats-Republicans-independents, are 32-28-36 percent among likely voters. Partisan divisions in the 2008 exit poll were 39-32-29 percent.

Another poll with some pretty silly party figures. Still, it shows a tie which is probably what they were going for. One way to explain the sampling.

 

[Todd33]

As far as Republican vs Democrat it wasn't too far out of whack with historic levels.

<Numbers without links>

2008 is the election that was out of whack. Historically party ID is pretty even and I see no reason to believe that it won't be this year as well. 2008 was an anomaly.

It would be nice to see what you are posting, exit polls and what? Links?

 

[First]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/31/dick_morris_romney_will_win_in_a_landslide.html

Dick Morris predicts Romney wins the popular vote by 5-10 points and finishes with over 300 electoral votes. lol, it's going to be epic watching these losers make excuses next week.

Meanwhile another ABC News/Wash Post poll shows Obama up 1, giving him the lead in the RCP average, with all state polls over the past 24 hours (save for Rasmussen der) showing Obama holding 1-8 point leads in OH, WI, PA, MI, NV, IA, CO, VA & FL.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Meanwhile another ABC News/Wash Post poll shows Obama up 1, giving him the lead in the RCP average, with all state polls over the past 24 hours (save for Rasmussen der) showing Obama holding 1-8 point leads in OH, WI, PA, MI, NV, IA, CO, VA & FL.

That's because there's a conspiracy to oversample Democrats! This election is just like 2010! It was historic! Romney will win 400 EVs!

 

[buckshot24]

It would be nice to see what you are posting, exit polls and what? Links?

CNN exit polls.

2004
2006
2008

CNN's site for this year isn't loading right but they have the results in a picture on the site.
2010