Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[buckshot24]

Here are some numbers:



Looks like they're factoring it in for you.

They mentioned it but how are they factoring it in?


Anyway, I'm talking about Democrat vs Republican enthusiasm you're talking about something a little different. In 2008 there was a large gap in favor of the Democrats. It was a perfect storm for them and they took advantage. My point about a lot of the polls is that they have a sample which in some cases has a larger gap in favor of the Democrats than there was in 08'. When in reality everything looks like this gap won't be as large.

People aren't voting on Hope and Change this year, there is a record.

Here are some of the reasons I think there won't be a gap as large as 08 in favor of Democrats.

1. The majority of the population want Obamacare repealed.
2. Republican enthusiasm is 20 points higher this year.
3. Democrat enthusiasm is lower for Democrats (slightly).
4. McCain had no chance come election day keeping Republicans home.
5. Poor economy, right or wrong Obama will get more blame than the Democrats had in 08
6. Democrats aren't going to come out to vote against Bush. Bush is in Crawford.
7. Election isn't "historic". Minorities most likely won't turn out like 08.
8. Much larger anti Obama segment than 08. More voters going out specifically to vote against Obama than 08. The 2010 mid term election is evidence of this.
9. 04' had an even split Dem/Rep according to exit polls.

 

[randomrogue]

They mentioned it but how are they factoring it in?


Anyway, I'm talking about Democrat vs Republican enthusiasm you're talking about something a little different. In 2008 there was a large gap in favor of the Democrats. It was a perfect storm for them and they took advantage. My point about a lot of the polls is that they have a sample which in some cases has a larger gap in favor of the Democrats than there was in 08'. When in reality everything looks like this gap won't be as large.

People aren't voting on Hope and Change this year, there is a record.

Here are some of the reasons I think there won't be a gap as large as 08 in favor of Democrats.

1. The majority of the population want Obamacare repealed.
2. Republican enthusiasm is 20 points higher this year.
3. Democrat enthusiasm is lower for Democrats (slightly).
4. McCain had no chance come election day keeping Republicans home.
5. Poor economy, right or wrong Obama will get more blame than the Democrats had in 08
6. Democrats aren't going to come out to vote against Bush. Bush is in Crawford.
7. Election isn't "historic". Minorities most likely won't turn out like 08.
8. Much larger anti Obama segment than 08. More voters going out specifically to vote against Obama than 08. The 2010 mid term election is evidence of this.
9. 04' had an even split Dem/Rep according to exit polls.

Buckshot you can't quantify what you're looking for better than people saying they're extremely likely to vote. That's enthusiasm quantified.

Also, I had to look it up since I was hoping it wasn't true. Obamacare has been shown to actually reduce costs so repealing would increase costs. That seems silly. How many would actually like that? 52% according to Rasmussen. Hilarious.

 

[buckshot24]

Buckshot you can't quantify what you're looking for better than people saying they're extremely likely to vote. That's enthusiasm quantified.

Sure. Party enthusiasm is subjective but even if we can't quantify the exact effect this is going to have it at minimum lends some plausibility to the assertion that the gap won't be as large this year. Taken with all of my other points it builds a decent case that I may be right.

Also, I had to look it up since I was hoping it wasn't true. Obamacare has been shown to actually reduce costs so repealing would increase costs. That seems silly. How many would actually like that? 52% according to Rasmussen. Hilarious.

Whether it reduces cost or isn't what is important. Repeal has a clear majority.

 

[buckshot24]

Whats up with Gallup? Romney up 6?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx

Vs.

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

Where Obama is up 1.5%

 

[jpeyton]

I really wish I had placed some bets during the height of the Romney bounce last week.

Romney's RCP average was down to +0.4% and dropping pre-debate, and Obama easily won it last night. Even with his debate bounce, Romney never pulled ahead in Ohio or Pennsylvania according to RCP.

The race is locked up. Unless Romney gets a late October surprise, I'm going to steer clear of this thread until election day (when buckshot can give us real-time updates of Obama's win).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

 

[dali71]

The race is locked up.

Keep telling yourself that, as it will make it much more entertaining when your guy loses next month. :biggrin:

 

[buckshot24]

I really wish I had placed some bets during the height of the Romney bounce last week.

Romney's RCP average was down to +0.4% and dropping pre-debate, and Obama easily won it last night. Even with his debate bounce, Romney never pulled ahead in Ohio or Pennsylvania according to RCP.

The race is locked up. Unless Romney gets a late October surprise, I'm going to steer clear of this thread until election day (when buckshot can give us real-time updates of Obama's win).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

Do you think all of those people who haven't decided are going to suddenly realize that Obama is their guy? Obama cannot get over 50% in fact some polls have him down to 45%. Romney is over 50% in Gallup.

 

[PokerGuy]

The race is locked up.

Yep. In fact, there's no reason for leftists (ie, democrats) to go vote, it's all locked up already

 

[mshan]

"A dramatic spiral for gasoline prices in some key battleground states comes just three weeks before the U.S. presidential elections.

Ohiovoters have watched prices at the gas pump drop by nearly 20 cents on average in the past week. At the same time, retail gas prices have plunged more than 10 cents in Wisconsin and Illinois.

Even in California, where the average gas price in the state reached the highest level on record on October 9, prices are now a lower by about a dime. Nationally, on average, gasoline prices have fallen 5 cents since last Wednesday to $3.76 a gallon.

If the steep slide in pump prices — as well as the decline in the futures market — is any indication of what is to come, voters in several states may see gasoline prices closer to the $3 mark by Election Day than recent highs around $4 a gallon, some analysts say. (Read More: Forget Renewables, We Need Cheap Oil Now—Analyst)

"I suspect that both candidates can guarantee $3 to $3.25 gal gasoline in Ohio after this week's gasoline debacle," said OPIS analyst Tom Kloza. "You will see some sharp retail drops in battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, and Nevada in the next few weeks."

A series of U.S. refinery glitches and tight supplies in some regions caused gasoline prices to surge earlier this month to the highest prices since the spring. But the switch to a less expensive winter grade of gasoline, weak refinery demand and increase of supplies in certain areas caused gasoline prices to start coming down. An unexpected increase in U.S. gasoline supplies in the past week could cause pump prices to fall even further.

November RBOB gasoline futures —a key gauge of where retail gas prices are headed—closed at the lowest price since Sept. 24 on Wednesday. Futures are 6 percent lower in just a week’s time. The rapid decline in the current session came after the U.S. Energy Information Adminstration reported domestic gasoline supplies rose in the past week, when many analysts had forecast a decline. Meanwhile, gasoline demand over the past four weeks continued decline compared to a year ago.

In the end, supply and demand is causing prices to moderate once again.

The fall in gasoline prices "is not the result of political maneuvering," Kloza said, "but just the normal rebalancing of inventories and the typical autumn sell-off."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49449346

 

[Doppel]

Do you think all of those people who haven't decided are going to suddenly realize that Obama is their guy? Obama cannot get over 50% in fact some polls have him down to 45%. Romney is over 50% in Gallup.

I know by now you know that the popular vote means nothing and that the EC is still substantially in Obama's favor, so why such confidence he'll lose? He won't. The more posts you write here about Romney winning the more painful it will be for you when he loses.

 

[buckshot24]

I know by now you know that the popular vote means nothing and that the EC is still substantially in Obama's favor, so why such confidence he'll lose? He won't. The more posts you write here about Romney winning the more painful it will be for you when he loses.

Even the Gospel according to 538 has the odds of Obama winning at a 64%. Why are you so confident? The odds that Obama wins the EC but not the popular vote are very small.

 

[woolfe9999]

Even the Gospel according to 538 has the odds of Obama winning at a 64%. Why are you so confident? The odds that Obama wins the EC but not the popular vote are very small.

It rarely ever happens that the EC goes the other direction from the popular vote, because the popular vote is almost never within a 1% margin. Right now, the popular vote polling is looking to be about that tight, so this time around it's more likely than in any randomly chosen year.

 

[buckshot24]

It rarely ever happens that the EC goes the other direction from the popular vote, because the popular vote is almost never within a 1% margin. Right now, the popular vote polling is looking to be about that tight, so this time around it's more likely than in any randomly chosen year.

538 has it at 3.8% for this election. The odds are not good even this year.

 

[Doppel]

Even the Gospel according to 538 has the odds of Obama winning at a 64%. Why are you so confident? The odds that Obama wins the EC but not the popular vote are very small.

Because 64>36.

 

[buckshot24]

Because 64>36.

64% isn't that sure of a bet. You said he "won't" lose. I wouldn't want a 64% free throw shooter coming to the line down 1 with 2 seconds left.

 

[lotus503]

64% isn't that sure of a bet. You said he "won't" lose. I wouldn't want a 64% free throw shooter coming to the line down 1 with 2 seconds left.

I would if a 36% shooter was the other choice.

 

[Doppel]

64% isn't that sure of a bet. You said he "won't" lose. I wouldn't want a 64% free throw shooter coming to the line down 1 with 2 seconds left.

OK he most likely won't lose. And Romney most likely will. 2:1 odds on Obama winning at the moment.

 

[buckshot24]

I would if a 36% shooter was the other choice.

touche

 

[buckshot24]

Gallup has Romney up 7 now.

 

[woolfe9999]

538 has it at 3.8% for this election. The odds are not good even this year.

Actually he has it at 6.9%. Obama wins PV, loses EC, 2.5%. Romney wins PV, loses EC, 4.4%. 2.5+4.4=6.9.

In any event, the point is that this is a trump card in the event that the PV turns out to be extremely close. Most probably the PV margin will be greater than 1%, but the polling at the moment looks tight on the PV, so it's worth pointing out that a .4% lead (if you go by RCP) may not be enough for Romney.

 

[OBLAMA2009]

Gallup has Romney up 7 now.

its not even statistically close. romney is going to win

 

[shortylickens]

The house votes for the president and the senate votes for the VP. In the house each state gets one vote, in the senate everyone votes and majority rules.

OK cool.

I dont think it matters much. Last time the electoral was close they asked for recounts over and over again.

 

[buckshot24]

Actually he has it at 6.9%. Obama wins PV, loses EC, 2.5%. Romney wins PV, loses EC, 4.4%. 2.5+4.4=6.9.

In any event, the point is that this is a trump card in the event that the PV turns out to be extremely close. Most probably the PV margin will be greater than 1%, but the polling at the moment looks tight on the PV, so it's worth pointing out that a .4% lead (if you go by RCP) may not be enough for Romney.

It has gone from 3.8% to 4.4% for Romney to win PV but lose EC.

I didn't include the opposite scenario because nobody is really talking about that.

If it turns out to be super close in the PV I fully accept that it makes a split more likely.

 

[Farang]

Gallup has Romney up 7 now.

I'm confused by this result. 1) Gallup has been Democratic-leaning relative to Rasmussen for most of the cycle, and now has swung the other way, 2) their +6 point poll can no longer be called a swing to the MoE, which I thought was a plausible explanation yesterday, 3) the poll doesn't 'feel' right relative to what we've seen to the state polling data and other national polls. The state data points to a dead heat, with Obama hanging on to Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, ties in Colorado and Virginia, and Romney pulling slightly ahead in NC and Florida. That map doesn't make sense with a national +7.

I'm disappointed in the lack of data coming out of Ohio. It could be argued that is is the only state that matters at this point.

edit: additionally confusing is Gallup's Obama approval is in the stronger end of the range it's been for a while now (50 approve) even when Obama was +6

 

[First]

Some interesting polls out today:

Gallup has Romney up 7, which like a lot of September polls showing Obama up high single digits nationally, were well outside the mean. Sean Trende at RCP guesses on Twitter that Gallup "has a day with a 1-in-1000 sample (like Romney+15), and that everything else is normal variance." Which makes sense, as Obama is up 50-44 in favorability in the same Gallup survey, and down 1 among registered voters 48-47, again in the same Gallup survey. Likely a random sample where a bunch of people self-identified as Republicans, outside the mean.

PPP started their first daily tracking poll of the election on Monday, and they have the race tied at 48-48.

Today PPP is releasing the first results from the daily tracking poll it will be running for the rest of the election, sponsored by Americans United for Change. It will be based on a three day rolling average, with 400 interviews conducted each day.

Based on interviews completed between Monday and Wednesday Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are all tied up at 48%. This represents some improvement for Obama compared to PPP's last national survey, conducted last weekend for Daily Kos and SEIU, which found Romney up 50/46.

Obama is up 51/45 with women, 62/34 with Hispanics, 87/8 with African Americans, and 57/38 with young voters. Romney is ahead 50/45 with men, 46/41 with independents, 58/38 with whites, and 53/43 with seniors.

Voters narrowly disapprove of Obama's job performance, with 46% of voters giving him good marks to 50% unhappy with how he's doing. That's actually up a little bit from a 44/53 spread over the weekend though. Americans are split right down the middle in their assessments of Romney- 47% see him favorably and 47% unfavorably. That's down from a 49/45 spread on last weekend's survey.

With less than three weeks to go until election day, this race couldn't be much more of a toss up nationally. We'll keep you apprised of the daily movement.

Another national tracking poll from IBD/TIPP Tracking has Obama moving back down into a tie with Romney 46-46, reverting down 2 points from 48%. Looks like more people went undecided. 8% undecided is high this close to the election I think.

Another Ohio poll from Rasmussen shows Obama up 1 49-48.