Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[First]

So while Obama will clearly win with probably over 300 electoral votes based on the state polls as of today, it is less clear when we will actually get a final popular vote total in part due to Sandy's effect on the heavy Dem-leaning northeast. Looks like New York and possibly counties in New Jersey will keep polling stations open well past election day to get final vote tallies.

But other than that looks like this thing is going to be boringly predictable.

 

[buckshot24]

1. The independent numbers don't make any sense, especially given that they have self-declared "moderates" the exact opposite.

I'm sure moderates are taken from both parties.

2. They screened out a LOT of registered voters. Far more than in their previous poll. (In fairness, screening more makes more sense closer to the election, but it was still a large number compared to other polls, AFAIK.)

I think other polls aren't screening enough. Some of them at 98% of registered voters marked as likely is absurd.

3. I find it hard to believe that Obama and Romney are tied in the same poll that Obama has a +6 approval rating. In their previous poll, Obama lead by 3 and his net approval was only +1.

Were the approval ratings with registered voters or likely?

Me, I don't like the poll because of the partisan gap.

 

[jackstar7]

So while Obama will clearly win with probably over 300 electoral votes based on the state polls as of today, it is less clear when we will actually get a final popular vote total in part due to Sandy's effect on the heavy Dem-leaning northeast. Looks like New York and possibly counties in New Jersey will keep polling stations open well past election day to get final vote tallies.

But other than that looks like this thing is going to be boringly predictable.

Except that you have it backwards. Romney is going to all but sweep the EC (save for CA and OR and a couple other super-liberal states) and so we need people to vote Obama to just reign in Romney's victory, so he doesn't misinterpret his victory as a call for extremist governing.

Vote Obama for a moderate Romney!

 

[First]

Except that you have it backwards. Romney is going to all but sweep the EC (save for CA and OR and a couple other super-liberal states) and so we need people to vote Obama to just reign in Romney's victory, so he doesn't misinterpret his victory as a call for extremist governing.

Vote Obama for a moderate Romney!

Lol, you sound just about as desperate as the wingnuts in here. Sadly they're not being a purposeful caricature. Well played sir!

 

[jackstar7]

Just trying to do my part.

 

[Moonbeam]

Well, even I would consider that to be too generous towards Obama.

Any idea what his track record last time was? It was better than 97% as I recall on all his calls.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Gallup today after a week's vacation: +1 Romney.

Big move towards Obama in a week. Either it actually happened or they realized they were in right field and corrected.

 

[woolfe9999]

Gallup today after a week's vacation: +1 Romney.

Big move towards Obama in a week. Either it actually happened or they realized they were in right field and corrected.

I doubt Gallup intentionally corrected. There may be some sampling error involved. Also, the overall trending in national polling has shifted toward Obama across the board, though obviously not by as much as that one poll has shifted.

 

[Todd33]

Gallup today after a week's vacation: +1 Romney.

Big move towards Obama in a week. Either it actually happened or they realized they were in right field and corrected.

The pollsters are herding so as not to look wrong.

 

[zinfamous]

I'm sure this has been discussed before--here and probably in other threads--but does anyone else feel that Romney has been completely invisible over the last week?

I honestly forgot he was a candidate!

Not sure how much of it was due to media forgetting to pay him any attention (probably has a lot to do with it) and Romney's own lack of effort to be heard (probably a significant enough influence).

 

[jpeyton]

I'm sure this has been discussed before--here and probably in other threads--but does anyone else feel that Romney has been completely invisible over the last week?

I honestly forgot he was a candidate!

Not sure how much of it was due to media forgetting to pay him any attention (probably has a lot to do with it) and Romney's own lack of effort to be heard (probably a significant enough influence).

Hurricane Sandy shut Romney's campaign down. He went from the headlines to being irrelevant in a single news cycle, while Obama was getting his knob polished by Christie on national TV.

 

[First]

Poor RealClearPolitics, still not updating their Gallup results.

 

[buckshot24]

They typically lag a bit on updating that list.

 

[Todd33]

Hurricane Sandy shut Romney's campaign down. He went from the headlines to being irrelevant in a single news cycle, while Obama was getting his knob polished by Christie on national TV.

God hates Mormons.

 

[buckshot24]

Obama is getting a bump from the hurricane, I think that much is obvious. He might only lose by 50 EC votes now.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Obama is getting a bump from the hurricane, I think that much is obvious. He might only lose by 50 EC votes now.

He was ahead even before the hurricane. But I don't really care what nonsense you people say to console yourselves tomorrow night.

 

[First]

lol hurricane Sandy.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Obama is getting a bump from the hurricane, I think that much is obvious. He might only lose by 50 EC votes now.

You do realize if Romney loses, I'm going to take every single quote you've ever made since the election started and create the most epic fail thread we've ever seen in P&N history?

 

[First]

SurveyUSA has Obama up 5 in Ohio.

This thing couldn't be more over.

 

[First]

You do realize if Romney loses, I'm going to take every single quote you've ever made since the election started and create the most epic fail thread we've ever seen in P&N history?

You do realize this troll will make excuses for why he really didn't say what he said, right? It's the troll way.

 

[buckshot24]

You do realize if Romney loses, I'm going to take every single quote you've ever made since the election started and create the most epic fail thread we've ever seen in P&N history?

OMGOSH I'm scared. Obama will win 537 EC votes.

 

[buckshot24]

I have been using quite a few IF/THAN statements throughout the thread, even in your sig I have an IF.

 

[Pens1566]

I have been using quite a few IF/THAN statements throughout the thread, even in your sig I have an IF.

You mean "IF/THEN"???

 

[Engineer]

Poor RealClearPolitics, still not updating their Gallup results.

Now updated.

 

[abaez]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html