Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[buckshot24]

You mean "IF/THEN"???

haha, yes absolutely.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

And you can basically put Nevada in Obama's column right now. That leaves Romney with 30/256 paths.

 

[randomrogue]

You can pretty much put Wisconsin in the Obama column too and that gives Romney 9 paths.

 

[buckshot24]

Rasmussen's party ID poll just came out for October and he has the split as a 5.8% advantage for Republicans now. Rasmussen has been pretty good in predicting turnout with this poll.

He'd have to be off by a huge margin this year if most of the polls turnout samples are right.

(before anybody jumps in and attacks me (ie. pulls a Charles) for cherry picking, I'm just posting the poll for your consideration not to prove that Romney is going to win)

 

[Charles Kozierok]

"Pretty good"? LOL.

Meanwhile, some folks are jumping the gun...

 

[WaTaGuMp]

Obama will win, that is all.

 

[First]

Now updated.

Interesting they found a way to reduce their total included aggregated polls to withhold polls that looked better for Obama and keep the RCP average at 0.4. Meh.

 

[buckshot24]

"Pretty good"? LOL.

Yeah, pretty good. Would you look at the chart and tell us where this poll has been fundamentally wrong?

Meanwhile, some folks are jumping the gun...

That's nuts. Why not wait?

 

[TraumaRN]

Rasmussen's party ID poll just came out for October and he has the split as a 5.8% advantage for Republicans now. Rasmussen has been pretty good in predicting turnout with this poll.

He'd have to be off by a huge margin this year if most of the polls turnout samples are right.

(before anybody jumps in and attacks me (ie. pulls a Charles) for cherry picking, I'm just posting the poll for your consideration not to prove that Romney is going to win)

That poll is ridiculous man. He's predicting like ~33 dem only?? Lowest turnout of Dems year over year on that whole chart? Gimme a freaking break!

You'd be hard pressed to try and convince me that dems will turn out that low. Lower than 2010. That's lol worthy.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Yeah, pretty good. Would you look at the chart and tell us where this poll has been fundamentally wrong?

I'd have to see where the actuals are coming from.

The changes in his split from 2008 to now are absolutely ridiculous.

 

[First]

Yeah Rasmussen is always interesting to look at but not particularly good at predicting elections, what with their horrid track record in the 2010 mid-terms and middling 12th place finish among polling firms in the 2008 presidential.

No one well informed takes them as anything more than a right-leaning polling firm.

 

[buckshot24]

That poll is ridiculous man. He's predicting like ~33 dem only?? Lowest turnout of Dems year over year on that whole chart? Gimme a freaking break!

You'd be hard pressed to try and convince me that dems will turn out that low. Lower than 2010. That's lol worthy.

Well, he may be off a bit but he'd have to be off by a shit load to make it more like the other polling samples are showing us. In any case he could be off by 8 points and it would be bad news for the president if independents go for Romney by as much as most polls are showing us.

 

[buckshot24]

I'd have to see where the actuals are coming from.

The changes in his split from 2008 to now are absolutely ridiculous.

I assume the actuals are coming from exit polls.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

I can't wait to make your epic fail thread buckshot. Will be glorious.

 

[randomrogue]

Buckshot why do you want Romney to win? Please don't do the whole "Obama is bad" thing. What is it that Romney can offer the country?

I'll give you a hint. "Nothing".

 

[buckshot24]

Yeah Rasmussen is always interesting to look at but not particularly good at predicting elections, what with their horrid track record in the 2010 mid-terms and middling 12th place finish among polling firms in the 2008 presidential.

They predicted 52-46 in favor of Obama in '08 and it was 53-46. Therefore they are off by 15 points this year in party affiliation? That is absolutely stupid.

No one well informed takes them as anything more than a right-leaning polling firm.

They'd have to be more than merely "right-leaning" to put out a poll like that. They'd have to be a totally in the tank GOP propagandist poll.

 

[buckshot24]

I can't wait to make your epic fail thread buckshot. Will be glorious.

I'm just giving you the poll. Did you read my disclaimer?

 

[Charles Kozierok]

They'd have to be a totally in the tank GOP propagandist poll.

Exactly what Rasmussen is.

 

[buckshot24]

Exactly what Rasmussen is.

Again, you're full of shit.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

 

[Todd33]

Rasmussen's party ID poll just came out for October and he has the split as a 5.8% advantage for Republicans now. Rasmussen has been pretty good in predicting turnout with this poll.

He'd have to be off by a huge margin this year if most of the polls turnout samples are right.

(before anybody jumps in and attacks me (ie. pulls a Charles) for cherry picking, I'm just posting the poll for your consideration not to prove that Romney is going to win)

Why would R turnout be larger than 2010 when they had the Tea Party anti-Obama low Democratic turnout year?

 

[First]

Why would R turnout be larger than 2010 when they had the Tea Party anti-Obama low Democratic turnout year?

Because he doesn't understand how polls, CV or LV models work, hence the wingnut obsession with party ID. Mark of a layman.

Make no mistake, the "Romney wins with 300+ votes" crowd will use lame Sandy and if/then excuses when Obama wins. This is their MO.

 

[Screech]

I'm rather impressed that you guys are still arguing over this when the election day is tomorrow.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

I'm rather impressed that you guys are still arguing over this when the election day is tomorrow.

It'll be more impressive when they're still arguing over it come December.

 

[buckshot24]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

But you're comparing a midterm to a presidential race!

But I'll even grant you that Rasmussen is always leaning right (silver doesn't claim this) by a few points and turnout could still be enough to blow Obama out of the office.

Rasmussen party ID

R 39.1
D 33.3

+5.8 R

then apply your universal bias factor of 3.9% and you get

R 37.1
D 35.3

R +2

Obama loses big.

Or we can even go up to 6% bias

R 36.1
D 36.3

D +0.2

Obama loses by 3-4 points.

Hell we can even go to 10%

R 34.1
D 38.3

And we have a very very close election if Independents go for Romney by double digits.

There is no evidence that Rasmussen was ever this far off in this particular poll.