gorcorps
aka Brandon
- Jul 18, 2004
- 30,739
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45-1 works out to ~3.5:1 for each game. Probably closer to 3:1 for the Pats game. Obviously, NE has a higher chance of winning, but the Broncos have the pieces to make it a fight.
The last time they played, Denver put up 160 some rushing yards in the 1st quarter and was up 9 points. Then, of course, they turned the ball over 3 times leading to 17 NE points to put the game out of reach. Historically this season, Denver doesn't turn the ball over that much so the 13 point spread is too high, if we're just talking about probabilities.
The key to beating NE has always been to control the time of possession to keep their crazy offense off the field and put tons of pressure on Brady with a 4 man rush. Denver has the possibility to do it with the run game and with Dumervil/Miller.
So while NE should win the game, they should have won the SB in 2007 too when the spread was 12.5.
Agreed. Without the silly mistakes that would have been a much closer game. If Denver has learned and McGahee can hold on to the damned ball they have more of a shot than people are giving them credit for. They already proved they can score on the defense, now they need to prove they can score more AND learn how to stop them from doing the same. Brady needs to be pressured or he'll be spot on all day.