Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
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I've been trying to stay out of this thread, but we might need an effective Joe McCarty to root the Russian garbage out of Congress.


James Comer Says Ukraine an 'Adversary' as GOP Plans Investigation

www.newsweek.com.ico
Newsweek|3 hours ago
The Kentucky Representative stressed the need for accountability to the U.S. taxpayer, but added he was "concerned" about the tide of the war.

Lol, from the Newsweek article:

"The Kentucky Representative, speaking with host Sean Hannity on Fox News about "influence pedalling,""

1673447031541.png
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,236
5,018
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Sounds like the Poles do intend to transfer 2PLs to Ukraine. Probably 3-4 other countries who would also. They technically need German approval but if those other countries join them they’d be hard pressed to deny.

edit: or maybe 2A4s or 2A5s, their fleet may not be as far along into the PL modernization than I thought possibly. They might have stopped due to deciding to buy Abrams and now Black Panthers.


Glad this is finally happening!
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,037
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Glad this is finally happening!

I think this is all part of a coordinated pressure campaign by a number of nations to get Germany to relent on tank transfers ahead of the arms group meeting later this month.

If the UK gives Challanger 2s then Germany can say they were not first and if other countries give their Leos then they can say they aren't doing it alone. This would satisfy their BS conditions.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,006
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And when Gerasimov doesn't fare any better, who replaces him? Don't think Putin understands that strategy is only part of why Russia is failing in Ukraine.
I think Russia is failing almost entirely due to a culture of systemic lying.

Putin's people lied to him about how Ukraine would welcome their invasion and then Russia's military has lied about their performance at every level, making it impossible for commanders to make good decisions. I remember reading about how one of the main reasons a bunch of Russian generals got killed is they were right by the front lines. Why were they at the front lines? They felt they couldn't rely on the reports of their subordinates.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,037
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I remember reading about how one of the main reasons a bunch of Russian generals got killed is they were right by the front lines. Why were they at the front lines? They felt they couldn't rely on the reports of their subordinates.

I seem to recall that in the Russian army, like the Soviet one that preceded it, junior officers are discouraged from taking the initiative in anything that deviates from "the plan" even if "the plan" is shit that's killing people for no reason or other opportunities arise. Russian generals operate near the front for this reason because lower ranking officers aren't generally empowered to make tactical decisions, everything has to go up the chain of command.
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,210
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I think Russia is failing almost entirely due to a culture of systemic lying.

Putin's people lied to him about how Ukraine would welcome their invasion and then Russia's military has lied about their performance at every level, making it impossible for commanders to make good decisions. I remember reading about how one of the main reasons a bunch of Russian generals got killed is they were right by the front lines. Why were they at the front lines? They felt they couldn't rely on the reports of their subordinates.

Definitely heard that. For that matter, Russia hasn't really had its newer military equipment tested against tough opponents before. When it saw combat at all, it was against enemies that couldn't put up much of a fight (Ukraine circa 2014, Chechen rebels and the like). Russia is learning the hard way that a lot of its claimed prowess falls apart when pitted against modern NATO gear.
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,382
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I seem to recall that in the Russian army, like the Soviet one that preceded it, junior officers are discouraged from taking the initiative in anything that deviates from "the plan" even if "the plan" is shit that's killing people for no reason or other opportunities arise. Russian generals operate near the front for this reason because lower ranking officers aren't generally empowered to make tactical decisions, everything has to go up the chain of command.

This is accurate, aside from it being doctrine for high ranking officers to be near the front. Generally doctrine doesn’t encourage staff officers to get themselves killed. As mentioned above, it’s the culture of lying that will get some officers to take on risk they really shouldn’t to try and succeed. The other factor was the general shortage of manpower, even among officers.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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I seem to recall that in the Russian army, like the Soviet one that preceded it, junior officers are discouraged from taking the initiative in anything that deviates from "the plan" even if "the plan" is shit that's killing people for no reason or other opportunities arise. Russian generals operate near the front for this reason because lower ranking officers aren't generally empowered to make tactical decisions, everything has to go up the chain of command.
Yes, low level commanders aren't allowed to make their own decisions in most situations but also if memory serves the more senior officers still basically have a mathematical model for how to conduct warfare, which given the state of the enemy, the terrain, troop readiness, etc. dictates how many resources an offensive will require to be successful. (I'm sure this is greatly simplified as compared to reality)

This sort of method absolutely REQUIRES accurate information though, and that's where the lying really hurts them. If your Russian subordinates report the last attack, while losing the Russians 500 soldiers, killed 1,000 of the 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers in a town you could reasonably expect that another attack of similar size would be successful. The only problem is in reality they only killed 50 Ukrainians so the next Russian attack is similarly doomed. Then the guy who ordered the attack is asked to justify his failure, considering he was given more than sufficient men and material for victory (based on lies by his subordinates). What does he do? He probably makes up his own lie that despite not taking the town they killed an additional 1,000 Ukrainians. (so now the next attack is sure to win, right?)
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,006
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Definitely heard that. For that matter, Russia hasn't really had its newer military equipment tested against tough opponents before. When it saw combat at all, it was against enemies that couldn't put up much of a fight (Ukraine circa 2014, Chechen rebels and the like). Russia is learning the hard way that a lot of its claimed prowess falls apart when pitted against modern NATO gear.
I agree, it is downright shocking how much more effective even limited amounts of NATO equipment has proven so effective. I think it also shows a big payoff from the US military's laser focus on logistics at every level where Ukraine can achieve the same or better results using 1/10th the ammunition, meaning 1/10th the ammunition needs to be built, stored, transported, etc.

I also think that because they so totally outclassed their other opponents there was never a true need for effective combined arms operations, something they have proven quite bad at.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
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I think Russia is failing almost entirely due to a culture of systemic lying.

Putin's people lied to him about how Ukraine would welcome their invasion and then Russia's military has lied about their performance at every level, making it impossible for commanders to make good decisions. I remember reading about how one of the main reasons a bunch of Russian generals got killed is they were right by the front lines. Why were they at the front lines? They felt they couldn't rely on the reports of their subordinates.
What the saying? We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,438
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Central Soledar has fallen.
Russians stormed the flanks and the situation was chaotic enough for some roughly 100 Ukrainian rearguards to be captured or killed as they held the line for others to escape encirclement.
The channel I have been following for the most detailed frontline reports, is linked below.

 
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Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
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I seem to recall that in the Russian army, like the Soviet one that preceded it, junior officers are discouraged from taking the initiative in anything that deviates from "the plan" even if "the plan" is shit that's killing people for no reason or other opportunities arise.
This is accurate, aside from it being doctrine for high ranking officers to be near the front. Generally doctrine doesn’t encourage staff officers to get themselves killed. As mentioned above, it’s the culture of lying that will get some officers to take on risk they really shouldn’t to try and succeed. The other factor was the general shortage of manpower, even among officers.
I'd just add that it is not just the army, from first hand experience, this also applies to how Russian businesses operate - you always deliver "the plan", regardless of what has changed in the marketplace or operations. And they do claim to deliver basically exactly the plan, one cannot do better nor worse than the plan... which requires a combination of inefficient spare unused capacity in manufacturing - to make sure they can always deliver the plan on production targets - as well as potentially some creative lying.