Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Pens1566]

While a bit of overkill, it may just be helping run Ukraine supply logistics safely while watching out for Russian movements. At least 2-3 US Army blackhawks running trips along Polish side of Ukraine border also, and there were at least a couple large military transport deliveries into the area in eastern Poland over past 12 hours, possibly more.

Possible, but kinda negates the purpose/strength of it in the first place. There would need to be a pretty cumbersome "translation" in order to get that info to a non-mated system

I have to wonder how much of this is cat and mouse and how much is "hey, look we're up here and we know what you're doing". They're sometimes showing certain platforms and sometimes not. Like the disappearing global hawk coverage in the black sea ... Also, if JSTARS is up there's a whole slew of units that feed on their target data. But none of it is Ukrainian. At least not in an automated fashion.

 

[Pens1566]

Why not fast track the Ukraine's membership into NATO. Like before the end of today. Then let NATO do their thing to the Russian forces surrounding the country.

Won't see it, just not in the cards. Sweden and Finland are a different story though.

I'm not even sure NATO is around (in it's current mission) after the long term consequences of this shake out. One way or another, this is going to radically change the power structure in Europe.

 

[ivwshane]

I don’t think I’ve seen the world united this much before in my life time. No matter what Putin does at this point he’ll be a loser. If his plan was to build up Russia to what it once was, well he fucked that up under his tenure. If it was to test the US, nato, or whatever other entity he perceived as a threat, he fucked up. Even if he succeeds in overtaking Ukraine he’ll suffer in the long run. In fact the only thing he’s succeeded in is killing people needlessly.

 

[Ajay]

There's a JSTARS over Poland right now. First I've seen so far ... that seems to be a shift in our posture. They're really close to the border, might be expecting some spillover. Because I don't think Ukraine has anything that would be compatible. I guess they could be relaying target info old school, but ... that's a stretch to use JSTARS for.

With a 250km range - this is for NAT0 purposes; which may include scanning delivery routes for moving NATO weapons into Ukraine. Curious what sort of penetration we have with CIA handlers into eastern Ukraine.

Eh, @Dave_5k scooped me.

 

[kage69]

Swiss going financial scorched earth on Vlad.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498294560824467461

Now THAT is impressive.

You lost the Swiss Vlad. The Swiss.

 

[Dave_5k]

Former NATO supreme allied commander of Europe (SACEUR) air command, a retired 4 star US Air Force general, in favor of no-fly zone:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498081883149807621

 

[vi edit]

I don’t think I’ve seen the world united this much before in my life time. No matter what Putin does at this point he’ll be a loser. If his plan was to build up Russia to what it once was, well he fucked that up under his tenure. If it was to test the US, nato, or whatever other entity he perceived as a threat, he fucked up. Even if he succeeds in overtaking Ukraine he’ll suffer in the long run. In fact the only thing he’s succeeded in is killing people needlessly.

Driving his economy into the ground. Chewing through billions in military hardware. Destroying billions in personal property.

Only to get punched in the face on the global stage.

 

[fskimospy]

Just read something that reminded me - while of course the idea that Putin wouldn't have done this because he was scared of Trump's unpredictability is ludicrous, it would have had a lot of impact on what we're seeing now. What actions/sanctions would other countries be willing to implement if they thought the US would betray them at any moment? Probably a lot less. One of the less frequently mentioned weaknesses of the Trump administration was that it was incapable of making binding commitments because nobody believed them.

 

[fskimospy]

Former NATO strategic air commander of Europe (SACEUR), a retired 4 star US Air Force general, in favor of no-fly zone:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498081883149807621

As this article mentions this is essentially a declaration of war on Russia. If you guys want to declare war just say it, don't pull this half-ass no fly zone shit.

I'm going to say war with Russia is a bad idea.

 

[Dave_5k]

As this article mentions this is essentially a declaration of war on Russia. If you guys want to declare war just say it, don't pull this half-ass no fly zone shit.

I'm going to say war with Russia is a bad idea.

Agreed, I don't favor war with Russia.

However, from Russian side, the extreme economic sanctions are bordering on an act of war already. They may not see as bright of a line between economic and military actions as does the West.

 

[fskimospy]

Agreed, I don't favor war with Russia.

However, from Russian side, the extreme economic sanctions are bordering on an act of war already. They may not see as bright of a line between economic and military actions as does the West.

I don’t agree and even if they did what is Russia going to do? Are they going to invade NATO countries? That would get them obliterated. Are they going to launch nukes? That gets Putin taken out back and shot.

 

[kage69]

As this article mentions this is essentially a declaration of war on Russia. If you guys want to declare war just say it, don't pull this half-ass no fly zone shit.

I'm going to say war with Russia is a bad idea.

I'm with you. Feels like Putin's folly is making some people get a little too cowboy here. I think they're already pushing it with a NATO AWACS they sent over Ukraine.

Say Russia shoots that down, killing 20-30 NATO crew members? Now what? Drones can't compete with the view of an AWACs, but they could still help give Ukrainians recon and warning.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Things going as expected.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498316098416037888

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498323405254262792

 

[Pens1566]

I'm with you. Feels like Putin's folly is making some people get a little too cowboy here. I think they're already pushing it with a NATO AWACS they sent over Ukraine.

Say Russia shoots that down, now what? Drones can't compete with the view of an AWACs, but they could still help give Ukrainians recon and warning.

I haven't seen anything about AWACS over Ukraine. JSTARS is over Poland right now, but that's a different thing entirely.

 

[pmv]

I'm with you. Feels like Putin's folly is making some people get a little too cowboy here. I think they're already pushing it with a NATO AWACS they sent over Ukraine.

Say Russia shoots that down, now what? Drones can't compete with the view of an AWACs, but they could still help give Ukrainians recon and warning.

I don't feel as confident as some seem to that Putin couldn't survive giving an order for nuclear strikes. I don't see how anyone not part of the (decidedly opaque) Russian state apparatus can be that certain how people involved would react. I feel very nervous about any measure that could risk starting a gradual escalation to that point.

On the other hand, I am now feeling as if, after decades of the West crying Wolf, and comparing every enemy of the day - from Nasser to Saddam, by way of Milosovic and Kim Jong Ill - to Hitler, maybe Putin is actually the real thing. A nutcase with near-absolute control of a genuinely dangerous military power - if only because of the nuclear arsenal.

 

[ccryder]

I'm with you. Feels like Putin's folly is making some people get a little too cowboy here. I think they're already pushing it with a NATO AWACS they sent over Ukraine.

Say Russia shoots that down, killing 20-30 NATO crew members? Now what? Drones can't compete with the view of an AWACs, but they could still help give Ukrainians recon and warning.

Where did you see there was AWACS over Ukraine?

 

[vi edit]

Just read something that reminded me - while of course the idea that Putin wouldn't have done this because he was scared of Trump's unpredictability is ludicrous, it would have had a lot of impact on what we're seeing now. What actions/sanctions would other countries be willing to implement if they thought the US would betray them at any moment? Probably a lot less. One of the less frequently mentioned weaknesses of the Trump administration was that it was incapable of making binding commitments because nobody believed them.

It also helps not having a President compromised and backed by Russian funds that are getting locked right now.

 

[kage69]

Looks like Russians are hitting back. Toyota just suspended domestic factory operations as one of their main suppliers just got cyber attacked.

 

[kage69]

Where did you see there was AWACS over Ukraine?

My source was incorrect looks like (and I'm thrilled) there's 2 of them and they are not allowed to leave Polish and Romanian airspace. SAMs don't care about international borders though, I hope Putin doesn't shoot at them anyway and give the standard encroachment/location dispute. He's looking for a way to arrest his descent into failure and spread some it the opposition.

Hurry up and off this guy Russia.

 

[Motostu]

I'm with you. Feels like Putin's folly is making some people get a little too cowboy here. I think they're already pushing it with a NATO AWACS they sent over Ukraine.
...

I have a feeling this is a term that is going to stick when people refer back to this event.

 

[Ajay]

Things going as expected.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498323405254262792

Heh, after He and the oligarchs got as much of their own holdings out of the country as possible.

 

[Zorba]

IOC now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498313299305377798

This is the third time in 14 years they've used the Olympics as cover for the start of a war. Kick them out until Putin is gone.

 

[IronWing]

With a 250km range - this is for NAT0 purposes; which may include scanning delivery routes for moving NATO weapons into Ukraine. Curious what sort of penetration we have with CIA handlers into eastern Ukraine.

At this point, I think the CIA could random dial Ukrainian numbers and ask folks what's going on in their areas.

 

[sportage]

What the hell happened over at Fox? Suddenly, they are actually dumping on Putin, praising Ukraine, cheering the Biden sanctions, and acting like a news organization should act. Have they lost their mind? This is not like Fox, not at all. Mommy, they're scaring me.

 

[Muse]

Driving his economy into the ground. Chewing through billions in military hardware. Destroying billions in personal property.

Only to get punched in the face on the global stage.

The man is indeed a cautionary tale.