Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[K1052]

Some word emerging that NATO will deploy, for the first time ever apparently, its high readiness force to the east.

 

[rommelrommel]

I think 3% casualties would be considered a great victory in Moscow.
Remember the dead were considered deserters in the Great Patriotic War. Their families were often times sent to Siberia (internal exile) for their crime.

That's not true. If it were, the entire population of Russia would have been in Siberia. Towards the end of WW2 desertion was hardly even a crime and typically just resulted in assignment to more dangerous role.

 

[hal2kilo]

Some word emerging that NATO will deploy, for the first time ever apparently, its high readiness force to the east.

Make a show of force on Russia's border. That will get the attention from the Ukraine.

 

[fskimospy]

Yet Fox is now complaining that the US isn't doing enough. Anything for the continuous negative picture about Biden.

There seems to be no attempt to square the ideas that Biden isn't doing enough to stop Putin from invading Ukraine and also invading Ukraine is fine.

 

[Pens1566]

Some word emerging that NATO will deploy, for the first time ever apparently, its high readiness force to the east.

Yeah, saw (former) ambassador McFaul confirm that earlier.

 

[Jaskalas]

No, the US promised that the UNITED STATES would not violate Ukraine's sovereignty, not that it would defend Ukraine against all others that attempt to do so.

Ah, I see. We agreed not to do something that we would never do anyway.
"I promise not to grow a third arm". Lovely...
Thank you for clarifying our duplicity.

Back to the big picture. If the Eastern Bloc is willing to attack nations, and no one is going to lift a finger to stop them. Why shouldn't most the planet join Russia and China?

 

[Pens1566]

Ah, I see. We agreed not to do something that we would never do anyway.
"I promise not to grow a third arm". Lovely...
Thank you for clarifying our duplicity.

Back to the big picture. If the Eastern Bloc is willing to attack nations, and no one is going to lift a finger to stop them. Why shouldn't most the planet join Russia and China?

Because there's no alliances protecting Ukraine. Cross the border into Poland and there's going to be a light show ...

 

[hal2kilo]

There seems to be no attempt to square the ideas that Biden isn't doing enough to stop Putin from invading Ukraine and also invading Ukraine is fine.

It's psychopathic.

 

[Paratus]

‘We are here to liberate you but will kill your families if you resist’ is quite a slogan.

He just wants to remind them of his love.

edit @K1052 beat me by a mile

 

[Roger Wilco]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497265439335931916

 

[fskimospy]

Ah, I see. We agreed not to do something that we would never do anyway.
"I promise not to grow a third arm". Lovely...
Thank you for clarifying our duplicity.

How is it duplicity? We promised not to do something and we didn't. If anything this is an example of the US acting honorably in accordance with its international obligations.

Back to the big picture. If the Eastern Bloc is willing to attack nations, and no one is going to lift a finger to stop them. Why shouldn't most the planet join Russia and China?

Because 'joining' Russia means consigning yourself to economic stagnation as a vassal state of a poor country centered on an increasingly obsolete industry.

Moreover, Russia has already attacked most of its neighbors that are not in NATO so there aren't that many more places to attack. If they decided to attack a NATO country that would be the end of Putin.

 

[Jaskalas]

Because there's no alliances protecting Ukraine. Cross the border into Poland and there's going to be a light show ...

I never said they'd attack NATO.
Least not before securing the rest of the unaffiliated nations.
Russia could easily join borders with... Iran. Just drive straight south.

To say nothing of China's ambitions.

 

[interchange]

Ah, I see. We agreed not to do something that we would never do anyway.
"I promise not to grow a third arm". Lovely...
Thank you for clarifying our duplicity.

Back to the big picture. If the Eastern Bloc is willing to attack nations, and no one is going to lift a finger to stop them. Why shouldn't most the planet join Russia and China?

From Wiki:

1. Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.[17]
2. Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to influence their politics.
4. Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
6. Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.

Sounds like meaningful promises that were upheld. It is true that the US was much less of a threat of direct force than other signatories. So what?

 

[Pens1566]

I never said they'd attack NATO.
Least not before securing the rest of the unaffiliated nations.
Russia could easily join borders with... Iran. Just drive straight south.

To say nothing of China's ambitions.

Which makes no sense at all for several reasons

1) they're already aligned on almost everything politically
2) they're already a military ally, both in terms of operations and arms sales
3) they're not a democracy that threatens to spread that same goal into Russia

Lets be honest here, Russia's real problem isn't NATO on its borders. It's having functioning representative democracies nearby that could be noticed by Russian citizens and they might start getting ideas.

 

[Leymenaide]

That's not true. If it were, the entire population of Russia would have been in Siberia. Towards the end of WW2 desertion was hardly even a crime and typically just resulted in assignment to more dangerous role.

I don't think your family was there. Mine was. What's more dangerous than being forced against German troops without a gun and told to pick one up from somebody that falls while the Russian machine guns were aimed at your back.

 

[rommelrommel]

Ah, I see. We agreed not to do something that we would never do anyway.
"I promise not to grow a third arm". Lovely...
Thank you for clarifying our duplicity.

Back to the big picture. If the Eastern Bloc is willing to attack nations, and no one is going to lift a finger to stop them. Why shouldn't most the planet join Russia and China?

I agree that the west is being forced to find its balls again, but this is a bad take. I do believe the west will fight for NATO countries absolutely and will honour other treaties. Should we all be both treaty building and in the case of everyone but the US investing more in our militaries? Yeah, we should. But to say the message to other countries is "just join the bad guys" is wrong.

 

[Jaskalas]

Sounds like meaningful promises that were upheld. It is true that the US was much less of a threat of direct force than other signatories. So what?

The scales of power are off balance. Between West and East, only East will invade and consume you. West won't lift a finger. In the coming decades you'll learn why this matters. China will take what it wants, and still we will not lift a finger.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Is this really as simple as: Putin is senile, watches Afghanistan put up minimal fight, decides holy shit America is soft now Ukraine will totally be same thing, suffers embarrassing losses across the board, realizes holy shit my amazing idea is going to be harder than I thought, and then comes to the realization that this is the end of Russia.

 

[rommelrommel]

I don't think your family was there. Mine was. What's more dangerous than being forced against German troops without a gun and told to pick one up from somebody that falls while the Russian machine guns were aimed at your back.

Actual scholars, mostly Russians at that, have debunked those stories as anything more than extreme outliers.

 

[nicalandia]

I can't believe that this thread is being derailed by a bunch of Internet Warriors that have never lift a finger to save their lives, but here they think they are some kind of John Rambo. Pathetic Fools

 

[rommelrommel]

Is this really as simple as: Putin is senile, watches Afghanistan put up minimal fight, decides holy shit America is soft now Ukraine will totally be same thing, suffers embarrassing losses across the board, realizes holy shit my amazing idea is going to be harder than I thought, and then comes to the realization that this is the end of Russia.

I don't think he's senile at all, but as all strongmen he probably doesn't listen to advisors too much and probably has a habit of putting his own judgment first. I think he both overestimates his own strength and underestimates his adversaries.

 

[hal2kilo]

Is this really as simple as: Putin is senile, watches Afghanistan put up minimal fight, decides holy shit America is soft now Ukraine will totally be same thing, suffers embarrassing losses across the board, realizes holy shit my amazing idea is going to be harder than I thought, and then comes to the realization that this is the end of Russia.

Also, thinks that everyone in America listens to traitorous Fox propaganda.

 

[Pens1566]

I don't think he's senile at all, but as all strongmen he probably doesn't listen to advisors too much and probably has a habit of putting his own judgment first. I think he both overestimates his own strength and underestimates his adversaries.

Yeah, this whole move just screams "epic miscalculation". Or, at least that's how history is likely going to show it.

 

[RnR_au]

I don't think he's senile at all, but as all strongmen he probably doesn't listen to advisors too much and probably has a habit of putting his own judgment first. I think he both overestimates his own strength and underestimates his adversaries.

There could be a good dose of groupthink going on inside the Kremlin.

Having said that, they did all the right things leading up to the invasion. $600bil in gold reserves. Lowest debt to GDP in the world and substantial foreign currency reserves. The DW news program called the Russian economy a Fortress Economy.

 

[vi edit]

When your entire schtick is bravado and bullying he painted himself into a corner and *had* to basically pull the trigger. He probably banked on hope that Ukraine would fold fast. Turns out that didn't go as planned. Now we all sit and wait to see how desperate he is to maintain that same bravado.