Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[fskimospy]

Why are you writing off losing the center?
The Luhansk offensive will have Russians on its southern flank after Bakhmut falls.
That isn't nothing.

It’s not much either though and Russia is suffering massive and disproportionate casualties along with losing equipment they can’t replace.

Very much like WW2 only this time Russia is the Nazis. Their first punch hit hard. Each punch after that has been weaker and weaker while their enemies are getting stronger. To me their alternatives are withdrawal or collapse.

 

[rommelrommel]

Why are you writing off losing the center?
The Luhansk offensive will have Russians on its southern flank after Bakhmut falls.
That isn't nothing.

There’s a lot of ground between nothing and losing the centre. Ukraine isn’t using its reserves or manoeuvre groups, I trust them to judge how important Bakhmut is to them.

It’s a huge front, Russia wants to bleed there and Ukraine is obliging them. I suspect it’s similar to slow playing a poker hand. If they counterattacked in numbers Russia might stop pissing away their troops.

 

[K1052]

The sole factor keeping Russia from losing even worse is that the west has withheld some items that would likely trigger a complete military collapse in short order.

If Ukraine received air launched standoff range munitions, 155mm DPICM, and ATACMS the Russian front would implode quickly. About $300M worth of munitions would effectively cause the disintegration of the Russian army in Ukraine.

 

[senseamp]

The sole factor keeping Russia from losing even worse is that the west has withheld some items that would likely trigger a complete military collapse in short order.

If Ukraine received air launched standoff range munitions, 155mm DPICM, and ATACMS the Russian front would implode quickly. About $300M worth of munitions would effectively cause the disintegration of the Russian army in Ukraine.

Almost like the West wants to leave Russia enough hope to continue self destructing.

 

[Racan]

Rheinmetall eyes boost in munitions output, HIMARS production in Germany | Reuters

Do it.

 

[feralkid]

The sole factor keeping Russia from losing even worse is that the west has withheld some items that would likely trigger a complete military collapse in short order.

If Ukraine received air launched standoff range munitions, 155mm DPICM, and ATACMS the Russian front would implode quickly. About $300M worth of munitions would effectively cause the disintegration of the Russian army in Ukraine.

Well then, Let's GO, Brandon!

 

[K1052]

Well then, Let's GO, Brandon!

The administration does appear to be more open now to providing longer range strike capability. What form that will take remains to be seen.

 

[JEDI]

The administration does appear to be more open now to providing longer range strike capability. What form that will take remains to be seen.

Does the US still have some of the old 'Spooky' class gunships aka flying howitzers? They were retired in 2020.

If so, maybe give those to Ukr?

 

[kage69]

Rheinmetall eyes boost in munitions output, HIMARS production in Germany | Reuters

Do it.

Was happy to hear about the boost, but Germany really needs a permanent domestic source for gunpowder and other propellants. Here's hoping they make the 155mm happen touts suite, Ukraine is going through 90k rounds/month. No German 35mm for several months sucks but at least it will happen. Also, hats off to Herr Papperger. Not only does his crew make great stuff, they have no delusions about working with Russia outside the only language that is understood.

 

[K1052]

Does the US still have some of the old 'Spooky' class gunships aka flying howitzers? They were retired in 2020.

If so, maybe give those to Ukr?

Way too vulnerable in that environment.

They need stuff like Storm Shadow, SLAMRAAM-ER, AGM-158, AGM-154 JSOW, ATACMS, GMLRS-ER, NSM, etc.

 

[kage69]

Does the US still have some of the old 'Spooky' class gunships aka flying howitzers? They were retired in 2020.

If so, maybe give those to Ukr?

Even more of a target than the A-10 for modern SAMs and troops with lots of MANPADS. Ain't happenin.

Edit: ha what K1052 said

 

[NTMBK]

The sole factor keeping Russia from losing even worse is that the west has withheld some items that would likely trigger a complete military collapse in short order.

If Ukraine received air launched standoff range munitions, 155mm DPICM, and ATACMS the Russian front would implode quickly. About $300M worth of munitions would effectively cause the disintegration of the Russian army in Ukraine.

I have no doubt that they're effective weapons, but I don't expect miracles.

 

[Indus]

I have no doubt that they're effective weapons, but I don't expect miracles.

Well currently most of the Russian armies are concentrated near Soledar and Bakhmut. Just use a few MOAB's and level the area.

 

[K1052]

I have no doubt that they're effective weapons, but I don't expect miracles.

Post-HIMARS the Russians moved everything vital just beyond GMLRS range. The US and Ukraine know where their important assets are but they’re mostly out of reach for the moment. If they have to move back again the present front can’t be maintained.

 

[JEDI]

Even more of a target than the A-10 for modern SAMs and troops with lots of MANPADS. Ain't happenin.

Edit: ha what K1052 said

so basically Spooky/A-10 can only be used once anti-air has been destroyed like the US did to Iraq?

 

[RnR_au]

so basically Spooky/A-10 can only be used once anti-air has been destroyed like the US did to Iraq?

When infantry can be anti-air, its a little hard these days.

 

[brycejones]

so basically Spooky/A-10 can only be used once anti-air has been destroyed like the US did to Iraq?

The A-10 is probably a bit more survivable but gun ships like the c-130 always required air superiority to be successful.

 

[Brovane]

so basically Spooky/A-10 can only be used once anti-air has been destroyed like the US did to Iraq?

Bingo. Basically now days with the easy availably of MANPADS, close Air Support can be really dangerous fighting against any near peer adversary. The US got away with using A-10's in Iraq and Afghanistan because the insurgents really didn't have MANPADS. The USAF has known this for a couple of decades which is why they have tried to get rid of the A-10 and focus on precision weapon systems. Why risk a pilot in a A-10 when you can just use a unmanned MQ-9 Reaper and drop a JDAM or destroy them with a Hellfire missile? Our you can have a B-52 orbiting at 40,000 ft with a bomber bay full of JDAM's.

 

[kage69]

so basically Spooky/A-10 can only be used once anti-air has been destroyed like the US did to Iraq?

More or less. Even then though, MANPADS still a huge threat. The last Spectre we lost was actually in Iraq, helping protect Khafji from Saddam. Crew was on egress out after shredding Iraqi formations. Sun was coming up (Spectres are night fighters) and they were getting ready to leave but Marines needed urgent help. They wheeled back in to work and were hit by a single shoulder launched missile. No survivors.

 

[Jaskalas]

Team Treason would like to remind us all exactly who they are.
Allowing Ukrainians to be killed is a #1 MAGA priority, and by extension, a Republican priority.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619809716464656387

 

[rommelrommel]

Team Treason would like to remind us all exactly who they are.
Allowing Ukrainians to be killed is a #1 MAGA priority, and by extension, a Republican priority.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619809716464656387

I would put it as helping Russia win more than anything. MAGA loves their authoritarian performatively masculine strongmen. Putin is really their ideal leader. Nominally a democracy, but he always wins somehow. Hates gays, minorities, and other cultures, is a pretend Christian, we could probably go on a while.

 

[RnR_au]

Somewhat offtopic, but now that Germany can import large amounts of 'liquid sunshine', they have begun investing in Australia. A couple of recent articles;

Australia and Germany fund first stages of two gigawatt scale green hydrogen projects

Australia and Germany funding will lay the groundwork for two gigawatt scale green hydrogen projects in Australia, and a ground-breaking electrolyser technology.

reneweconomy.com.au

“World first” solar methanol plant to feed off Port Augusta solar thermal project

“World-first” solar methanol plant that will tap into Port Augusta solar thermal project one of four green fuel projects funded by Australia and Germany.

reneweconomy.com.au

Timeline seems to be deliveries by 2030 at the latest.

Nordsteam might be able to pump again after a Russian loss, but Germany (and Europe) won't be caught short again.

 

[Perknose]

Somewhat offtopic, but now that Germany can import large amounts of 'liquid sunshine', they have begun investing in Australia. A couple of recent articles;

Australia and Germany fund first stages of two gigawatt scale green hydrogen projects

Australia and Germany funding will lay the groundwork for two gigawatt scale green hydrogen projects in Australia, and a ground-breaking electrolyser technology.

reneweconomy.com.au

“World first” solar methanol plant to feed off Port Augusta solar thermal project

“World-first” solar methanol plant that will tap into Port Augusta solar thermal project one of four green fuel projects funded by Australia and Germany.

reneweconomy.com.au

Timeline seems to be deliveries by 2030 at the latest.

Nordsteam might be able to pump again after a Russian loss, but Germany (and Europe) won't be caught short again.

What I also like here is Western investment in resource rich Australia as opposed to China moving in.

 

[feralkid]

Team Treason would like to remind us all exactly who they are.
Allowing Ukrainians to be killed is a #1 MAGA priority, and by extension, a Republican priority.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619809716464656387

What a pathetic blow monkey.

 

[JEDI]

So far Iran says a military installation in Tehran was attacked by "small drones."

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/28/middleeast/drones-attack-iran-military-plant-intl-hnk/index.html

They have not accused anyone in particular as of this hour. But if it was a military attack, I suppose Israel is a good first guess.

Apparently, it was isreal:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/30/middleeast/drone-strikes-iran-isfahan-intl/index.html

Wouldn't this lead to Iran declaring war on Isreal if true?