Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
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So fractions of NATO's GDP helped Ukraine stop the world 2nd's best army. Remind me again, why anyone is afraid of Russia's military?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,491
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With the belief that Ukraine has been abandoned, Russia vows to escalate and renew its offensive pushes through Ukraine.
As the first commenter says... "The US is now actively adding and abetting Russia."

ISW: The Trump administration has been applying considerable pressure on Ukraine, whose leaders continue to offer concessions and publicly declare their interest in achieving a lasting end to the war. These Trump administration policies are undermining the leverage that the United States needs to get Putin to accept any peace agreement that is in the interests of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe.

https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1897483524766359737

 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,491
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One additional thing about the SHUTDOWN of US Intel.
Trump has blinded Ukrainian Air Defense.

They will not know when to prepare for the next Russian launch. MANY more civilians are going to be slaughtered as a direct result of this action by the White House. Trump has DIRECTLY taken action to make Russian missiles more effective at bombing Europe.

Quote: What this means is American satellites will see Russian bombers carrying missiles taking off, bound for Ukrainian hospitals, power and transport infrastructure, and they will intentionally choose to sit on their hands rather than warn them it’s coming.

https://x.com/wallaceme/status/1897308472724869346

 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
19,812
6,899
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So fractions of NATO's GDP helped Ukraine stop the world 2nd's best army. Remind me again, why anyone is afraid of Russia's military?

Because they are afraid to involve their own military, and escalate the conflict.

But with how US is acting, I find it hard to believe that Ukraine can hold out much longer, without European troops taking care of the defense of cities and infrastructure away from the main battle zone.

And then we'll have a new situation on our hand...
 

misuspita

Senior member
Jul 15, 2006
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Lack of balls. Fear of acting now on a distant land and without your soldiers dieing will lead to a future conflict with Ukrainian, NK and Russian meat assaults attacking over Europe country by country.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,093
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The cut off of aid and intel to Ukraine is having an effect on the Euros too. Starting to see their defense people warily eyeing the F-35 which if the US cut off services for could become expensive paperweights. Discussions about what should be bought with European defense money increasingly centered around European products. I don't think contract cancelations are around the corner but hard to see LM being able to sell them any more than they already have. The potential for the US to secure new EU defense contracts as a whole is likely becoming pretty low.

Also willing to bet Ukraine goes shopping at Dassault or Saab instead of LM or Boeing when the time comes that they are ready to buy new jets.
 
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misuspita

Senior member
Jul 15, 2006
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Article in Romanian, Google Chrome translates reasonably well. 6 people detained for treason and negociations with Russia.

Also, Yesterday, 2 Russian embassy high military personnel were expelled from the country.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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When are they going to be used IN ACTUAL COMBAT bud? That's the question. Then you'll really know if they work or not. Doing a bunch of missile tests against your own targets don't mean shit. We know the Russian stuff works...Funny you mention the it taking out Oreshnik...Putin even gave them 30 minutes notice it would launch. Would seem like a perfect time to use it right?




To find out if they actually work against adversary munitions? What non-NATO targets have they been tested against? Do you remember Boering touting those GLDBS bombs being sent to Ukraine only to be jammed by Russia a few weeks later? Let me refresh your memory:






Not weird at all when they’re backed by 30+ countries and hundreds of billions of dollars.

What’s weird though? Those same 30+ countries getting schooled for 20 years by a bunch of goat herders with nothing but flip-flops, AKs, and a couple of rusty trucks. I guess they really nailed the art of losing wars.
Wait, so you’re saying the goat herders in flip flops are a more effective fighting force than the Russian army.

You might not be wrong, lol.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
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He's such a disgusting piece of shit. Makes cyka the joke seem principled.

Trump to revoke legal status for 240,000 Ukrainians as US steps up deportations

Bleats about stopping the killing, purposefully puts more Ukrainians in harm's way while protecting the Russians forces doing the attacking. Now he's got people talking to Zelenskyy's political opponents, even after every single member of the Ukrainian parliament told him and Putin to fuck off over elections during war. Clearly he respects the Budapest Memorandum about as much as Putin, though it is terrible that he just doesn't care about American credibility or civilians being murdered. Nothing but shit and piss in that skull of his I'm afraid.

Hurry up and die traitor.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,729
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He's such a disgusting piece of shit. Makes cyka the joke seem principled.

Trump to revoke legal status for 240,000 Ukrainians as US steps up deportations

Bleats about stopping the killing, purposefully puts more Ukrainians in harm's way while protecting the Russians forces doing the attacking. Now he's got people talking to Zelenskyy's political opponents, even after every single member of the Ukrainian parliament told him and Putin to fuck off over elections during war.

Hurry up and die traitor.

utterly criminal. this fat sack of inhuman shit can't die fast enough.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
13,501
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The cut off of aid and intel to Ukraine is having an effect on the Euros too. Starting to see their defense people warily eyeing the F-35 which if the US cut off services for could become expensive paperweights. Discussions about what should be bought with European defense money increasingly centered around European products. I don't think contract cancelations are around the corner but hard to see LM being able to sell them any more than they already have. The potential for the US to secure new EU defense contracts as a whole is likely becoming pretty low.

Also willing to bet Ukraine goes shopping at Dassault or Saab instead of LM or Boeing when the time comes that they are ready to buy new jets.

Best financial move right now is in Euro defense companies.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,868
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Whatever happens, there will be a stronger, more influential Turkey there standing with Europe to oppose Putin's imperial fantasy.

Ankara is down with any post NATO arrangement. They would see Ukraine and Syria rebuilt for people, not dictators, and have the money, influence, military industry and most importantly the will to help make it happen. More good news for Ukraine.


Turkey's Hakan Fidan, ex intel head turned foreign diplomat and who might be Erdogan's successor, has been paying attention.

“The genie is out of the bottle and there is no way to put it back,” he said of European security.“Even if President Trump decides not to withdraw from Europe at this time, it is possible that in the future someone with similar views and political ideas might consider reducing America’s contributions to European security.”
 

Udgnim

Diamond Member
Apr 16, 2008
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These Trump administration policies are undermining the leverage that the United States needs to get Putin to accept any peace agreement that is in the interests of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe.

Trump & GOP messaging has been so focused on pushing Zelensky & Ukraine for peace that it distracted me from remembering that Russia is the bad guy in this conflict

why is Ukraine getting all the pressure to pursue peace when Russia is the invading country?

unfortunately, we all know why
 
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Dec 10, 2005
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Whatever happens, there will be a stronger, more influential Turkey there standing with Europe to oppose Putin's imperial fantasy.

Ankara is down with any post NATO arrangement. They would see Ukraine and Syria rebuilt for people, not dictators, and have the money, influence, military industry and most importantly the will to help make it happen. More good news for Ukraine.


Turkey's Hakan Fidan, ex intel head turned foreign diplomat and who might be Erdogan's successor, has been paying attention.

“The genie is out of the bottle and there is no way to put it back,” he said of European security.“Even if President Trump decides not to withdraw from Europe at this time, it is possible that in the future someone with similar views and political ideas might consider reducing America’s contributions to European security.”
Waiting for the Make the Ottoman Empire Great Again movement.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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US pullback naturally creates opportunities for others to step forward to fill the gap. Erdogan has long desired improved economic and political influence in Europe, clearly they view this as their window.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,093
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The short sightedness here is just insane. SpaceX will never sell sat services to another government ever again. The governments with money will refocus on supporting competitors that will eat at them.

Screenshot 2025-03-06 at 6.51.22 AM.png
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
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The short sightedness here is just insane. SpaceX will never sell sat services to another government ever again. The governments with money will refocus on supporting competitors that will eat at them.

View attachment 119078

I think a lot of Defense companies are in the same boat when the US Govt backstabs a partner and ally. If the US government orders SpaceX to cut services then SpaceX has to cut services.

I think we have to keep in mind the distinction between different types of Starlink services currently active in Ukraine.

DOD controlled Starlink Terminals. These are Starlink terminals that have the geo-fencing controlled by the US DOD and are directly paid for by the US DOD.

Commercial Service Starlink Terminals. These are Starlink terminals paid for by civilians, different European governments, etc. They are standard Starlink service terminals and are subject to the standard TOS.

Most likely scenario is that the US Govt cuts of the DOD Starlink terminals. They can either have SpaceX de-activate them (They control the subscription) or de-activate themselves since they have greater control over the terminals per the US Govt contract with SpaceX. The US government could also order SpaceX to more strictly enforce the TOS. The current TOS

9.5 Modifications to Starlink Products & Export Controls. [...] However, Starlink is not designed or intended for use with or in offensive or defensive weaponry or other comparable end-uses. Custom modifications of the Starlink Kits or Services for military end-uses or military end-users may transform the items into products controlled under U.S. export control laws, specifically the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) (22 C.F.R. §§ 120-130) or the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) (15 C.F.R. §§ 730-774) requiring authorizations from the United States government for the export, support, or use outside the United States.


Right now SpaceX has a generous interpretation of the TOS allows them to be used for military comms. As long as you don't mount them on drones and use them for communication for active attacks on the Russians. The US Govt could order SpaceX that Starlink terminals used for military comms makes them fall under ITAR rules and take appropriate action.

This overall is the problem when you depend on one provider for the majority of your data services. Ukraine learned this the hard way when the war started and they depended on ViaSat and the Russians hacked the ViaSat terminals and bricked a bunch of them. The problem is there really isn't a good alternative to Starlink for low latency satellite data communications. Ukraine is kind of stuck until there is a good commercial alternative to Starlink or they go back to using high latency satellite data communications.
 
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