kage69
Lifer
- Jul 17, 2003
- 27,774
- 37,832
- 136
I thought Mr. Dresen here nailed it back in February. Nothing I've seen since then changes it.
Putin Will Leave Russia in Ruins
"Perhaps the costs to Russia in terms of regional influence, erosion of soft power, and economic hardship would be worth it so long as Russia’s military power proved strong enough to achieve its political objectives. Another disaster. Russian military losses have been immense: American intelligence estimates that Russia has lost 87 percent of active duty troops it had prior to its invasion (over 300,000 killed or injured) and up to two-thirds of its tanks. Russia’s naval embargo of Ukraine, intended to interrupt grain exports, has been broken—by a nation without a navy and accomplished mainly through long-range rockets and self-produced naval drones.
Today, Russia’s prosecution of the war now depends on artillery shells purchased from North Korea and drones procured from Iran. Russia concentrates its military strikes on civilian buildings and infrastructure far from the front. But it is making slow advances on the battlefield as the Ukrainian army runs low on ammunition. As for the future, the Russian military will need decades to replenish its equipment and manpower. Its military exports will one day face an international market where its best products have proven to be utterly inadequate against American Javelins, HIMARS, and Patriot Missile batteries. And its generals and officials will spend the rest of their lives sheltering from international war crime indictments.
The day after the war ends, Russia’s troubles truly begin—and will last for decades. The soft power and influence of a once great nation will lie in tatters. Its economy will not quickly integrate with the rest of the world. Instead, it will confront demands for reparations and a lack of trust or sympathy from the world’s democratic market nations. Russia may be a hero and partner to other aspiring aggressive autocrats. But its real future may be that of a client state and gas station to China. Putin may despise Gorbachev for the breakup of the Soviet Union. His successors, however, will revile Putin for reducing Russia to a ruin."
Putin Will Leave Russia in Ruins
"Perhaps the costs to Russia in terms of regional influence, erosion of soft power, and economic hardship would be worth it so long as Russia’s military power proved strong enough to achieve its political objectives. Another disaster. Russian military losses have been immense: American intelligence estimates that Russia has lost 87 percent of active duty troops it had prior to its invasion (over 300,000 killed or injured) and up to two-thirds of its tanks. Russia’s naval embargo of Ukraine, intended to interrupt grain exports, has been broken—by a nation without a navy and accomplished mainly through long-range rockets and self-produced naval drones.
Today, Russia’s prosecution of the war now depends on artillery shells purchased from North Korea and drones procured from Iran. Russia concentrates its military strikes on civilian buildings and infrastructure far from the front. But it is making slow advances on the battlefield as the Ukrainian army runs low on ammunition. As for the future, the Russian military will need decades to replenish its equipment and manpower. Its military exports will one day face an international market where its best products have proven to be utterly inadequate against American Javelins, HIMARS, and Patriot Missile batteries. And its generals and officials will spend the rest of their lives sheltering from international war crime indictments.
The day after the war ends, Russia’s troubles truly begin—and will last for decades. The soft power and influence of a once great nation will lie in tatters. Its economy will not quickly integrate with the rest of the world. Instead, it will confront demands for reparations and a lack of trust or sympathy from the world’s democratic market nations. Russia may be a hero and partner to other aspiring aggressive autocrats. But its real future may be that of a client state and gas station to China. Putin may despise Gorbachev for the breakup of the Soviet Union. His successors, however, will revile Putin for reducing Russia to a ruin."
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