Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[K1052]

I presume they've moved these very expensive systems out of M39 range.

Since it is in Russia proper likely not an allowable strike even with the M39A1s if they got them. The sites in southern Crimea however...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719805781485244523

 

[IronWing]

New HIMARS ordinance just in time for Halloween

https://imgur.com/t8Ydm3g

That's just weird.

 

[IronWing]

Some numbers about North Korean ammo shipments. Seems to be a decent chunk of arty ammo.



Source



Source

Ofcause just because you have ammo, doesn't mean you have tothe means to deliver it accurately in a timely manner. The Ukrainian fire and control systems are far superior.

It's a five thousand mile rail journey from North Korea to the Ukrainian front. One would think that someone along the line would own a pry bar.

 

[K1052]

An honest appraisal of where things stand from the guy in charge. The AFU offensive is basically culminated and the Russians are fairing much worse trying to attack Avdiivka and Kupiansk. Ukraine is also putting millions of mines on its border with Russia so further incursions are going to be basically impossible from those directions.

Basically what they need are more modern planes with associated munitions, lots of counter battery radar to attrit everything shooting they can find, a shitload of drones, and newer counter drone EW equipment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719788848853483788

 

[fskimospy]

An honest appraisal of where things stand from the guy in charge. The AFU offensive is basically culminated and the Russians are fairing much worse trying to attack Avdiivka and Kupiansk. Ukraine is also putting millions of mines on its border with Russia so further incursions are going to be basically impossible from those directions.

Basically what they need are more modern planes with associated munitions, lots of counter battery radar to attrit everything shooting they can find, a shitload of drones, and newer counter drone EW equipment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719788848853483788

This grinding battle of attrition seems to be in significant part because neither side can establish air superiority, which seems to be necessary to disrupt fortifications and suppress enemy drone activity.

 

[K1052]

This grinding battle of attrition seems to be in significant part because neither side can establish air superiority, which seems to be necessary to disrupt fortifications and suppress enemy drone activity.

Long past time to rummage around Davis-Monthan and get Ukraine F-16Cs, E-2C Hawkeyes, and AH-1W Super Cobras.

 

[MrSquished]

The Russians and Israelis have a lot in common these days when it comes to targeting civilians.

 

[fskimospy]

Long past time to rummage around Davis-Monthan and get Ukraine F-16Cs, E-2C Hawkeyes, and AH-1W Super Cobras.

I wonder if that would be enough. I’m confident the US could establish air superiority there but that’s because our air assets are so overwhelming. Could any other country?

 

[Jaskalas]

Putin will never strike NATO. Ever.

There could be a situation where God Emperor Trump removes the US from NATO or renders it impotent in some way and then maybe Russia would try some shit.

That is exactly what our 2024 election is about, when it comes to foreign policy.

 

[K1052]

I wonder if that would be enough. I’m confident the US could establish air superiority there but that’s because our air assets are so overwhelming. Could any other country?

I doubt they could secure total air superiority unless the US allowed the use of systems on Russian territory. They could however push back Russian aviation and AD from much of the southern front leaving those units exposed to close air support.

 

[Drach]

I guess we will be slammed with russian bride ad's soon.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

^^^ Some Russian women are pretty sharp. Problem is they all turn into old Russian women.

 

[Young Grasshopper]

Will Ukraine have any men in the 18-40 age brackets when this war is done? These are pretty much the baby making years - so Ukraine is going to be doubly screwed down the line. Very few male experienced male workers in the 40-60 age bracket an very few male workers coming up the ranks.

Fixed that for you.

Young Ukrainians leave the country to avoid going to war

Under Ukraine’s martial law, men aged 18-60 who are eligible for military service must stay at home, but many are leaving before reaching that age

english.elpais.com

War exacerbates Ukraine’s population decline new report shows

Within one year of the war, millions Ukrainians fled their homes. By the end of January 2023, between 25% and 30% of the entire Ukrainian population was displaced within and outside Ukraine.

joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu

 

[RnR_au]

I guess we will be slammed with russian bride ad's soon.

It might get worse. There is a Ukrainian source that reckons that Russia has hatched a new scheme to do shadow mobilisation - they are now targeting debtors.

New recruitment scheme for those unwilling to join the Russian army.

The Russian army has seen a decline in interest in contract service. The Kremlin needs to look for new "cannon fodder". They have decided that debtors will become "contract servicemen". Therefore, all data on those who owe loans was transferred to the Ministry of Defense. Now the debtors will be driven into the army by threats: either pay or go to war.

In the 3rd quarter, Russian banks sold overdue debts to debt collectors for a record 75 billion rubles (~$800 million). For example, in the 2nd quarter, this amount was 41.9 billion rubles (~$450 million).

Basically, a debtor is a credit user who is about 40 years old, has secondary/higher education, has a family and needs to provide for it. This requires not only a high income, but also benefits, such as credit freezes, preferential mortgages. The Ministry of Defense tempts Russians with all this.

According to the Central Bank, the most MFI clients are in Tyva (15.3%), Altai (9.6%), occupied Sevastopol (9.4%). Debtors of other loan types mostly live in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar region, Sverdlovsk region and Bashkortostan.

Source

I haven't seen others report it.

 

[Exterous]

Putin will never strike NATO. Ever.

There could be a situation where God Emperor Trump removes the US from NATO or renders it impotent in some way and then maybe Russia would try some shit. I could even see them trying some ‘push your buttons’ shit with deniability in some of the Baltics.

An invasion though? No, not so long as the US is around. The Russian army would be quickly destroyed and Putin would be killed or overthrown.

I don't know if they'd try a direct attack even if the US did leave NATO. I mean there's always room for more crazy but if they can't handle Ukrainian then I feel like the rest of Europe combined would too much to handle. Hell even if they made peace with Ukraine I think the shell of their former military would collapse in the face of the full spectrum of modern weaponry wielded by forces trained for years in how to use them.

 

[bononos]

It might get worse. There is a Ukrainian source that reckons that Russia has hatched a new scheme to do shadow mobilisation - they are now targeting debtors.



Source

I haven't seen others report it.

Russia has been snatching people off the street in more remote/poorer regions so for those regions, its seems almost like a full mobilization for them. And the latest 2023 fall conscription will now include the newly annexed territories. So far it looks like Russia has managed to contain public discontent by not mobilizing from places like Moscow.

 

[bononos]

Is no one going to talk about the new Time article?

Zelensky: TIME may be on his side, but real time, isn't

Official Ukraine narrative collapses as Zelensky’s inner circle admits to magazine that the war cannot be won militarily.

responsiblestatecraft.org

Zelensky's aides and officials are complaining about corruption, the lack of manpower which is pushing up the average soldiers' age to 43yrs, low morale etc.
This aren't things that can be ignored any longer and its probably why Russia is confident about keeping the war going despite the high casualty count.

 

[K1052]

Is no one going to talk about the new Time article?

Zelensky: TIME may be on his side, but real time, isn't

Official Ukraine narrative collapses as Zelensky’s inner circle admits to magazine that the war cannot be won militarily.

responsiblestatecraft.org

Zelensky's aides and officials are complaining about corruption, the lack of manpower which is pushing up the average soldiers' age to 43yrs, low morale etc.
This aren't things that can be ignored any longer and its probably why Russia is confident about keeping the war going despite the high casualty count.

Ukraine has real problems and has been at war since 2014. At the same time they are fending off what was once a superpower with NATO’s junk drawer which we hesitated to give them every step of the way costing them time and lives.

Also piss on David Sacks.

 

[Pipeline 1010]

Russia should probably concentrate on crossing the Dnipro before they set their sights on crossing the Atlantic.

Nah. They should just YOLO it. To the Atlantic!!!

 

[Zor Prime]

If there's any inkling of truth to that TIME's article Zelensky doesn't have to worry about Russia but a group of his own countrymen relinquishing him of his duties. After which, Grasshopper will spend the next 20 years telling everyone who gave him shit "told you so." Joking aside, it's obvious that Grasshopper is David Sacks.

 

[itsmydamnation]

Is no one going to talk about the new Time article?

Zelensky: TIME may be on his side, but real time, isn't

Official Ukraine narrative collapses as Zelensky’s inner circle admits to magazine that the war cannot be won militarily.

responsiblestatecraft.org

Zelensky's aides and officials are complaining about corruption, the lack of manpower which is pushing up the average soldiers' age to 43yrs, low morale etc.
This aren't things that can be ignored any longer and its probably why Russia is confident about keeping the war going despite the high casualty count.

your quoting team Russia, the best lies have a little truth.

Ukraine bite and hold seems to be working , its probably going to work even better during winter.
Russia is throwing equipment it cant replace at a wall.

At this rate the land bridge will get cut , Putters only chance is Trump 2024.

 

[bononos]

your quoting team Russia, the best lies have a little truth.

Ukraine bite and hold seems to be working , its probably going to work even better during winter.
Russia is throwing equipment it cant replace at a wall.

At this rate the land bridge will get cut , Putters only chance is Trump 2024.

No, its not an editorial from Sacks, Sacks was writing about the Time article. I've linked to both in my earlier post. I've quoted Sack's article because his bullet point format without any spin was helpful.
The Time article was by Shuster and the info he got was directly from Zelensky's inner circle of aides/officials. Ukraine's war is also going quite badly, you cannot dismiss an average age of 43yrs away or scandal ridden Shurma being kept on as a close advisor as Russian propaganda.

 

[Pens1566]

I don't know if they'd try a direct attack even if the US did leave NATO. I mean there's always room for more crazy but if they can't handle Ukrainian then I feel like the rest of Europe combined would too much to handle. Hell even if they made peace with Ukraine I think the shell of their former military would collapse in the face of the full spectrum of modern weaponry wielded by forces trained for years in how to use them.

I'd wager that RU couldn't handle Poland ... all on it's own.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Utter insanity

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719969572193775972

 

[fskimospy]

No, its not an editorial from Sacks, Sacks was writing about the Time article. I've linked to both in my earlier post. I've quoted Sack's article because his bullet point format without any spin was helpful.
The Time article was by Shuster and the info he got was directly from Zelensky's inner circle of aides/officials. Ukraine's war is also going quite badly, you cannot dismiss an average age of 43yrs away or scandal ridden Shurma being kept on as a close advisor as Russian propaganda.

I’m not sure if you are clear on the definition of an editorial but that is 100% an editorial, and from a guy who is basically the Young Grasshopper of Twitter.

I mean this is the guy who kept lying about how Russia only invaded because Ukraine might join NATO, which is a facially stupid idea.