Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[K1052]

And the US has never attacked or invaded or dominated any of its neighbours? Really?

If the US proposes to again invade Mexico, for the first time since the mid 1800s, I will be appropriately outraged. Canada however has it coming.

 

[fskimospy]

I hate that word. It's a magic word invented to be able to evade evidence of hypocricy or lack of credibility. It doesn't actually mean anything.

It was in fact specifically invented to magically erase all the crimes of US foreign policy.

No, it’s that the rightness or wrongness of an activity is not based on who is complaining about it. It’s perfectly fine to point out that hypocrisy but it doesn’t change the fact that 1) invading Ukraine is wrong and 2) it’s implying false equivalence. The US is very, very far from perfect but compared to Russia we are looking pretty good. People like to bring up the invasion or Iraq as an example of US aggression and they are right to do so, but it caused 400,000 to 500,000 deaths. The Russian caused Ukrainian famine killed ten times that alone. This is the core of whataboutism, to obscure facts like that.

Ironically, the purpose of whataboutism is mostly the opposite of what you’re saying. It’s not to expose the hypocrisy of major powers, it’s to enable them to act without any control or consequence. When the Russians came up with this tactic it was not in the hopes that a shamed United States would behave better internationally, it was to create a situation where powers fell into two categories: 1) those too weak to inhibit Russia and 2) hypocrites who lacked the moral authority to do so.

 

[cytg111]

Russia: [repeatedly attacks, invades, and dominates its neighbors]

Neighbors: man we would sure like to find a way to stop Russia from attacking us.

Russia: any attempt to protect yourself from future attack by us is an unacceptable provocation that will lead to an attack.

This. So much this.

 

[kage69]

Maybe not New Zealand. But US lied itself into how many wars already? Putin is very direct, pretty much saying "keep NATO out of the Ukraine or there will be trouble."

You did nothing to support your assertions there, and now the whataboutisms. Yes, we'll all quite aware of what Putin's feelings on this are, it's your curious shilling and avoiding of certain facts that is more interesting here.

This is not about America lying to dominate a neighbor, and I wouldn't be supporting it if that were the case. This is about Russia playing victim to rehash settled history, and if you believe this is about security you are simply carrying Putin's water for him.

Ukraine is a sovereign state. They get the same right to determine their future as everyone else. There already is trouble - it's Putin, who thinks America speaks for other countries the way Russia does for it's vassals. Self-determination only matters if it's Russian. Let's forget for a moment that no one state can make promises for NATO. Broken promises, like what Medvedev and Putin whine about, only matter when they come from the West it seems. I seem to recall Russia promising of leave Ukraine's borders alone if it gave up it's Soviet era nuclear weapons. How did that work out? NATO is defensive, it can't go to war without members voting to do just that. Does anyone really think that all 30 members are going to vote to attack Russia, for reasons?

You are cherry picking things like a Trumpet or Russian, and it's having the predictable effect on your position. If you can't bring yourself to be honest about Putin's real fear, a successful Ukraine that shows the Russian ways of oligarchy and authoritarianism as inferior, then repeating Russian talking points is all you have.

Putin and his cronies are waging a culture war, and are prepared to kill other Slavs rather than let them determine their own future and enjoy economic success. The West is standing up to fascism and standing by democratic values and it's allies. Probably time to degauss that moral compass dude.

 

[SMOGZINN]

If Russia wasn't planning to invade, they did the Ukraine one hell of a big and expensive favor. I can't see what Russia expected to achieve if it had no intention of invading. The economic cost of relocating ~150,000 soldiers, along with massive numbers of tanks, aircraft, and various equipment from all across Russia, as well as building all the support sites needed to house and maintain troops and equipment is enormous. It's an enormous cost to pay for an empty threat, even without it handing Ukraine a tremendous victory without a shot being fired.

Ukraine has been begging the US and UK for the latest gen anti tank missiles, the famous Javelin and less famous, but equally devastating NLAW missile systems for years now. These are infantry weapons that can reliably defeat any tank Russia has. Ukraine has been facing off against Russian tanks in the Donbas conflict and suffering terribly, and these weapons would go a long way toward evening the odds there.

The US and UK have until now largely refused to sell Ukraine these weapons (and Ukraine has offered to pay way over the market price), out of fear it will escalate the Donbas conflict. Ukraine says it needs these weapons to defend itself if Russia tries to invade Ukraine proper, but the US/UK have taken the view that if Russia ever did that, it will take Russia months to move so much troops and equipment and will be caught by spy satellites, leaving plenty of time to rush those Javelins/NLAWs to Ukraine.

I cannot overstate how badly Ukraine wants these weapons. They begged and begged president Trump for Javelins, the entire debacle over the infamous Trump "Ukraine call"/"quid pro quo" thing, and indeed the allegations around Clinton/Biden interfering in Ukraine were all about those missiles and what Ukraine would be prepared to do to receive them. Getting those missiles is Ukraine's number one foreign policy goal.

Now Russia has spent the last few months doing exactly what the US/UK said would be make or break time for sending missiles to Ukraine. And the UK (and probably the US) have indeed followed through on their tacit promise to get Ukraine those missiles if that situation were ever to arise. It has been reported that the UK in the last few days has transported 1,500+ NLAWs and counting to Ukraine. Russia still has the air superiority, but that is why those missiles are so important to Ukraine. They have plenty of tanks and artillery, but Russian air superiority will take out the majority of those in the first hours of an invasion, leaving Ukraine's 200,000 troops mostly helpless against Russian armor. Until now.

Any Russian invasion will now take devastating casualties to their vehicles, as a lone Ukrainian infantryman only has to get within 600m of a Russian tank to destroy it. Even if Russia backs down and doesn't invade, expect Ukraine to use NLAWs in Donbas from now on. By any account Russia shot themselves in the foot with this little stunt. Do we really think they did it for nothing?

I don't think Russia actually expected the UK/US to come through with the missiles to Ukraine this fast. Russia probably expected that they had sowed enough political chaos to paralyze the US and UK into inaction for at least a few more months. If so, they badly miscalculated. But now Russia has a problem. Just about their entire foreign policy strategy is based on brinkmanship. You never know what they're going to do next. You are always wondering how crazy they really are. It makes it hard to back down now. It shows that are really scared of confronting NATO and sets the precedent that as long as NATO holds strong Russia will back down. I doubt Putin will accept that.

My expectation is that they will stay on the border of The Ukraine, rattling the saber and keeping everyone on edge, while working inside to destabilize their economy and government. Their goal will now be to get a government installed that will invite them in.

 

[senseamp]

This is likely the main purpose of this "invasion" hysteria. To politically justify sending more arms to Ukraine for purpose of trying to retake Donbas and to funnel more money to defense contractors who are sad about Afghanistan gravy train coming to a stop. The other being to cancel Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but it looks like Germany is not too hot on freezing.

 

[trenchfoot]

Russia has seen how weakened America has become due to how the Repubs have exacerbated the effects of the pandemic by, among other ridiculous ploys, refusing to mask up and get vaccinated in support of Trump and his deadly mismanagement of the pandemic. They've seen how being an open society with freedoms that don't exist there can create a stubborn state of divisiveness within itself all by itself.

The Repubs have allowed Putin to see how easy it is to sow distrust and suspicion in a nation that's as strong as the USA and will exploit it to the maximum extent. How odd it is that the Repubs are doing Putin such a great favor and they really don't care because seizing power fascist style is now their sole purpose and reason for existing, a game plan coming straight out of Moscow.

 

[fskimospy]

This is likely the main purpose of this "invasion" hysteria. To politically justify sending more arms to Ukraine for purpose of trying to retake Donbas and to funnel more money to defense contractors who are sad about Afghanistan gravy train coming to a stop. The other being to cancel Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but it looks like Germany is not too hot on freezing.

So are you saying that Russia hasn't massed troops on Ukraine's border or are you saying that Russia has for benign reasons and the US/West are exploiting that? Because if it's #1, this seems delusional. If it's #2 then Putin is an idiot because this reaction was entirely foreseeable.

You do agree that Ukraine has every right to retake its sovereign territory from the Russian invasion though, right?

 

[kage69]

This is likely the main purpose of this "invasion" hysteria. To politically justify sending more arms to Ukraine for purpose of trying to retake Donbas and to funnel more money to defense contractors who are sad about Afghanistan gravy train coming to a stop. The other being to cancel Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but it looks like Germany is not too hot on freezing.

It's like you are reading off of a list of Kremlin approved talking points.

The Russians move 127k troops and 30+ Iskander units to the border, 140 naval assets have been mobilized, and Russian leaders are threatening not only invading Ukraine, but even "turning the West into radioactive ash." All over a neighbor with a drastically smaller, piecemeal military that Russia is definitely not scared of, a neighbor it already invaded and has been killing people since 2014.

But the West has "invasion hysteria."

What is it that's driving you to mimic such absurdity?

 

[K1052]

It is not "invasion hysteria" to notice an army massing across your border belonging to a power that recently annexed, officially or otherwise, sizable portions of your sovereign state by force.

 

[SMOGZINN]

This is likely the main purpose of this "invasion" hysteria. To politically justify sending more arms to Ukraine for purpose of trying to retake Donbas and to funnel more money to defense contractors who are sad about Afghanistan gravy train coming to a stop. The other being to cancel Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but it looks like Germany is not too hot on freezing.

Just for the sake of argument let's say that is the point of the US/UK making this into a big deal. What is the point of Russia moving all those troops and equipment to the Ukraine border, and what would be the appropriate response to it?

 

[Denly]

If the US proposes to again invade Mexico, for the first time since the mid 1800s, I will be appropriately outraged. Canada however has it coming.

Plz, we Canadian would love to move south and bring metric and healthcare along with us. It is freezing here.

 

[K1052]

Related if I was Germany I'd maybe not shut all my nuke plants and deeply incentivize the switch over to heat pumps for home heating needs instead of going to get more wildly problematic Russian gas.

 

[K1052]

Plz, we Canadian would love to move south and bring metric and healthcare along with us. It is freezing here.

We prefer our healthcare ruinously expensive and our measurements confusing thank you very much.

 

[fskimospy]

We prefer our healthcare ruinously expensive and our measurements confusing thank you very much.

My car gets 40 rods to the hog’s head and that’s the way I like it!

 

[UNCjigga]

Related if I was Germany I'd maybe not shut all my nuke plants and deeply incentivize the switch over to heat pumps for home heating needs instead of going to get more wildly problematic Russian gas.

Hot Twitter Take: Putin wouldn’t have dared amass troops at the border if Merkel was still in power. She wouldn’t have flinched about letting NATO equipment through to Ukraine, whatever the political or economic cost to her party or country. Putin was afraid of the most powerful woman in the world.

 

[feralkid]

This is likely the main purpose of this "invasion" hysteria. To politically justify sending more arms to Ukraine for purpose of trying to retake Donbas and to funnel more money to defense contractors who are sad about Afghanistan gravy train coming to a stop. The other being to cancel Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but it looks like Germany is not too hot on freezing.

When did you first become a mind-fucked troll for Putin?

You used to be a valued voice on this forum.

Was your account hacked?

Blink twice for "yes".

 

[VRAMdemon]

IIRC after the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was talk of Russia participating in NATO operations and training sessions. NATO tried to stop being an anti-Russia force after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

It only resumed that status when Russia decided that it liked being the enemy of the world, rather than a friend. I suspect that, if Putin had simply continued to increase trade, visa acceptance, etc. between his country and Ukraine, the two countries would have progressively gotten closer and basically inseparable. Instead, his approach was like a guy who likes a girl, so he pushes her against the wall and tries to stick his tongue down her throat. He completely destroyed his future prospects.

Russia could have continued to work with NATO helping to keep peace across the planet. All those nations in eastern Europe didn’t run to the EU and NATO’s arms because of the decades of respect shown them by the Soviet Union and then Russia under Putin. You spend 40 years with your boot on your some countries neck and big surprise, they run into the arms of another.

None of Russia’s fall from grace had anything to do with anyone else. Putin just flushed it all down the toilet because he prefers to be the only guy in power, and his continued desire to enrich himself and his buddies.

 

[kage69]

Hot Twitter Take: Putin wouldn’t have dared amass troops at the border if Merkel was still in power. She wouldn’t have flinched about letting NATO equipment through to Ukraine, whatever the political or economic cost to her party or country. Putin was afraid of the most powerful woman in the world.

Idk, Merkel was also infamous for being quite allergic to any form of risk. He probably did fear a little spite on her part, guy enjoyed bringing his dog to meetings because he knew she's frightened of them. Something of a theme with him.

Germany is so far a disappointment on this, Croatia too I suppose. I wonder if this would still be the case if it weren't for Trump's hate of NATO, love of praise and handjobs for Putin. Regardless of who heads Germany, I still expect Putin to do another partial invasion. I think he'll wait for Xi's faux Olympics to finish, then annex everything down to Odessa, just wall Ukraine off from the Black Sea entirely. Another Georgia but with tweaks. I don't think Putin is wanting to shoulder the costs of a protracted series of urban warfare campaigns, certainly not against defenders who have been preparing for the last 8 years. Kyiv is probably safe, but we'll see.

But this will all bolster NATO's resolve and cohesiveness, while underscoring it's raison d'etre like no time since the 80s. Sorry Putin, but like you with the Kuriles, the West doesn't have any interest in renegotiating long past settled wars. If you want to dictate what other countries can and can't do, you're going to have to pay for it with a lot of dead Russians. It's just a shame Ukrainians will have to die in order for the bratva of Moscow to feel safe.

 

[VRAMdemon]

Putin knows that in an election year, figuring, most likely Biden isn’t going to risk any pre-emptive military action (even with congress approval) to oppose Russia. If they do attack, Most likely, Russia is going to roll through, establish naval bases on the Black Sea, and park military formations on the Polish border. A dramatically more dangerous security situation.

It's also possible in 2024 Russia could get a Republican president who is willing to say “you know what, fuck NATO, just help yourself to whatever seems fair.” American politics isn’t the center of everything, but I have to think it may factor into this situation to some extent.

 

[Ajay]

Related if I was Germany I'd maybe not shut all my nuke plants and deeply incentivize the switch over to heat pumps for home heating needs instead of going to get more wildly problematic Russian gas.

Talk about hysteria. The Germans just up and freaked out about nuclear power and wanted it shutdown. Damned be the consequences.

 

[fskimospy]

Talk about hysteria. The Germans just up and freaked out about nuclear power and wanted it shutdown. Damned be the consequences.

Germany: climate change is an existential threat.
Also Germany: let's shut down a huge source of carbon neutral power and replace it with fossil fuels supplied by a hostile foreign power.

 

[kage69]

Putin knows that in an election year, figuring, most likely Biden isn’t going to risk any pre-emptive military action (even with congress approval) to oppose Russia.

Ukraine is not a NATO member. Nothing directly against Russia, preemptive or otherwise, has ever been on the table. Stepping into the middle of the Slavic Squabble 2.0 when there's plenty of nuclear weapons but no treaty involved? Just, no.

I think if Putin is betting on anything in an American election year it's the division, treason and chaos he helped foment/nurture as the new normal for the "American" conservatives called Trumpists. 1/6/21 has shown them to be the most succesfull threat to America to date. He is definitely counting on Congressional GQP resistance to America's interests though, money well spent there too.

 

[kage69]

Talk about hysteria. The Germans just up and freaked out about nuclear power and wanted it shutdown. Damned be the consequences.

Not all of them thankfully. Germany's largest energy player is doing a big LNG terminal where the Elbe meets the North Sea. I actually think Putin is going to help NATO consolidate it's internal debate in the coming weeks. I'd love to see France give Germany a hand in this regard. Their small reactor designs and cutting edge grid management can solve a lot of headaches and with very little carbon footprint.

America and Canada need to phase into being Europe's energy supplier, at least until alternatives take over sufficiently or Putin is gone, or both. NATO is more important than a pipeline, and has proven it's worth before. It can do so again.

 

[senseamp]

So are you saying that Russia hasn't massed troops on Ukraine's border or are you saying that Russia has for benign reasons and the US/West are exploiting that? Because if it's #1, this seems delusional. If it's #2 then Putin is an idiot because this reaction was entirely foreseeable.

You do agree that Ukraine has every right to retake its sovereign territory from the Russian invasion though, right?

Media definition of "Ukraine border" is anywhere in western Russia. Smolensk is not "Ukraine border."