Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[fskimospy]

https://news.yahoo.com/sputnik-v-shows-higher-omicron-153134130.html

While I definitely wouldn't discount this, I maintain a pretty healthy skepticism of anything that comes out of Russia, particularly about covid. For example excess mortality figures put Russian deaths at more than double the official count.

 

[senseamp]

While I definitely wouldn't discount this, I maintain a pretty healthy skepticism of anything that comes out of Russia, particularly about covid. For example excess mortality figures put Russian deaths at more than double the official count.

It's joint study with a reputable Italian infectious disease institute.
Here's Lancet from before Omicron:

Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine candidate appears safe and effective

Denis Logunov and colleagues1 report their interim results from a phase 3 trial of the Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine in The Lancet. The trial results show a consistent strong protective effect across all participant age groups. Also known as Gam-COVID-Vac, the vaccine uses a heterologous...

www.thelancet.com

It's not some babushkas cooking something up in their moonshine stills. Russia has serious bio weapons and bio defense research.
Also, Eastern Europe and Russia pretty much DGAF about masking and quarantines, plus high density housing, plus most people using public transportation, so pretty much everyone has natural immunity and Omicron is basically a non-issue.

 

[tweaker2]

It seems to me that Putin is definitely taking advantage of the divisiveness the Repubs are fomenting here at home. It's as if they both have a vested interest in returning Trump to the White House. What a coincidence. Looks like Fucker Carlson is doing his part to accomplish that. It's also a coincidence that Carlson has been insinuating how we should be more sympathetic to Russia and their problems dealing with the war monger Biden. I wonder how many more coincidences there are in this regard.

 

[fskimospy]

It's joint study with a reputable Italian infectious disease institute.
Here's Lancet from before Omicron:

Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine candidate appears safe and effective

Denis Logunov and colleagues1 report their interim results from a phase 3 trial of the Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine in The Lancet. The trial results show a consistent strong protective effect across all participant age groups. Also known as Gam-COVID-Vac, the vaccine uses a heterologous...

www.thelancet.com

It's not some babushkas cooking something up in their moonshine stills. Russia has serious bio weapons and bio defense research.
Also, Eastern Europe and Russia pretty much DGAF about masking and quarantines, plus high density housing, plus most people using public transportation, so pretty much everyone has natural immunity and Omicron is basically a non-issue.

I never said that, I was simply pointing out that Russia has lied about covid at every turn and so we should all take anything that involves Russia with a mountain of salt. In addition, Russia has already been caught fudging the numbers on its vaccine and concealing data that could be used for independent verification. I mean it's fucking Russia, the default assumption on everything their government touches should be that it's a lie.

Also, I’m not sure where you are getting your info but high density housing is largely irrelevant when it comes to covid (crowding matters, not density), prior infection does not appear effective against Omicron, etc.

 

[Ajay]

Its too late for nuclear now .. it takes at least a decade to get a new plant up and running right? By that time frame we're running on solar and wind.

It's not too late, but is 10 years behind where it could have been to a lack of funding and the slow bureaucratic grind of the NRC in America. Newer plant designs in the 300-500 MW range can be built quicker and no longer require the massive high strength pressure domes need in PWR plants. Our government could help allot more. Out of $1.5B devoted to nuclear research, only ~$280M has is targeted at the advanced nuclear demonstration program (for next gen reactors). A pittance for a technology that, along with improved batteries, can even out power distribution via baseload power (no modern population zones drop to zero power consumption over a 24 hour day). Anyway, off topic, but a pet peeve of mine. People are just way under informed about nuclear and fearful due to past mistakes that are being addressed with impressive technological advances.

Also makes you think a couple of thoughts about why Putin is doing this now. A shift to green means that Putin's leverage is gone... I think 40%+ of Russia's BNP is energy export right?

Yes, Russia has a long term problem. But as a strategy, an energy price offensive driven by the threat of military interventionism could backfire in a way that could severely damage Russia by turning off the EU countries to reliance on Russian energy, by at least second sourcing their natural gas as they are doing already.

So this means that Putin is gonna lose a significant tool over the next 10 years. Maybe this is factoring in on the decision making to make war now.

Maybe, but if so, it's not going his way really - he can only keep this up so long and then Europe will balk. Russia wants better relations and trade with Europe, but then they pull off this shit. Some of it is about internal politics. Even Putin needs good favorable wrt to the Russian people - otherwise his power within the hierarchy is diminished. It's also a kind of self harm in my opinion. Conflicting agendas and and shifting priorities make seem to be wounding Russia - even as they pursue a path towards neutralizing Western influence and establishing a 'friendly' (lol) relationship with the Ukraine.

One thing that strikes me is how measured, generally, the Biden admin has been in responding to Russia's actions. I can only imagine that there is enough intelligence that indicates Russia doesn't really want to invade the Ukraine and is really in search of a set of concessions from NATO wrt to the Ukraine, above all, even if it means stationing over 100K troops and military equipment near it's eastern border. Clearly, Russia/Putin believes losing the Ukraine to NATO is a great risk to Russian national security. That said - no one can really know what the man has in mind (as our President has said).

 

[Ajay]

It's not some babushkas cooking something up in their moonshine stills. Russia has serious bio weapons and bio defense research.
Also, Eastern Europe and Russia pretty much DGAF about masking and quarantines, plus high density housing, plus most people using public transportation, so pretty much everyone has natural immunity and Omicron is basically a non-issue.

I'd say they don't DGAF about suffering high casualties as they develop some level of natural immunity. Sacrifices have to be made, except by the rich and powerful. The people, ha, it's their lot in life.

 

[cytg111]

It's not too late, but is 10 years behind where it could have been to a lack of funding and the slow bureaucratic grind of the NRC in America. Newer plant designs in the 300-500 MW range can be built quicker and no longer require the massive high strength pressure domes need in PWR plants. Our government could help allot more. Out of $1.5B devoted to nuclear research, only ~$280M has is targeted at the advanced nuclear demonstration program (for next gen reactors). A pittance for a technology that, along with improved batteries, can even out power distribution via baseload power (no modern population zones drop to zero power consumption over a 24 hour day). Anyway, off topic, but a pet peeve of mine. People are just way under informed about nuclear and fearful due to past mistakes that are being addressed with impressive technological advances.

Maybe thats the gamble we have to take, nuclear, both in terms of climate but also in terms of geopolitics.
I've been pro nuclear for a while now also, alas.

 

[senseamp]

I never said that, I was simply pointing out that Russia has lied about covid at every turn and so we should all take anything that involves Russia with a mountain of salt. In addition, Russia has already been caught fudging the numbers on its vaccine and concealing data that could be used for independent verification. I mean it's fucking Russia, the default assumption on everything their government touches should be that it's a lie.

Also, I’m not sure where you are getting your info but high density housing is largely irrelevant when it comes to covid (crowding matters, not density), prior infection does not appear effective against Omicron, etc.

Thanks for being upfront about your prejudice that Russia is lying by default. Almost no one cares about COVID in Russia, so there is no big reason to lie about it. If published figures were 2x or half, it wouldn't make any difference. People in Eastern Europe are pretty mellow about old people dying, and most are more concerned about who gets granny's apartment.
Density leads to crowding in shared infrastructure. Maybe travel to Eastern Europe (I highly recommend Ukraine, unless you are neurotic about this war that will not happen) and take public bus/shuttle or elevator in one of those project style apartment buildings. Then you'd understand.

 

[senseamp]

I'd say they don't DGAF about suffering high casualties as they develop some level of natural immunity. Sacrifices have to be made, except by the rich and powerful. The people, ha, it's their lot in life.

Russians (Ukrainians, Belarussians, same culture) DGAF in general. Rich guy will speed drunk into oncoming lane to pass with no seatbelt on, just in a nicer car than poor guy.

 

[hal2kilo]

The 1950s called - they want their cliche back.

You seen some stripe changes no one knows about? (As in tigers).

 

[fskimospy]

Thanks for being upfront about your prejudice that Russia is lying by default.

Prejudice is by definition unfounded, and the understanding that the Russian government lies all the time is EXTREMELY well founded. Don't take my word for it, if you've ever been to Russia ask them about their government!

'Why oh why would you think the people that developed the 'firehose of falsehood' method of propaganda to be lying'? Such a mystery!

Almost no one cares about COVID in Russia, so there is no big reason to lie about it. If published figures were 2x or half, it wouldn't make any difference.

Okay then explain the over 900,000 excess deaths in Russia during covid as compared to the official death count. Are they really bad at math?

People in Eastern Europe are pretty mellow about old people dying, and most are more concerned about who gets granny's apartment.

Density leads to crowding in shared infrastructure. Maybe travel to Eastern Europe (I highly recommend Ukraine, unless you are neurotic about this war that will not happen) and take public bus/shuttle or elevator in one of those project style apartment buildings. Then you'd understand.

I've been to Eastern Europe, thanks! Speaking of Ukraine, remember when the Russian government repeatedly and egregiously lied about their invasion of Crimea? lol.

Since crowded infrastructure leads to more covid, I'm excited to hear your explanation of Tokyo and Singapore, btw. The whole 'density = covid' thing is a myth that was debunked like a year and a half ago.

 

[senseamp]

Prejudice is by definition unfounded, and the understanding that the Russian government lies all the time is EXTREMELY well founded. Don't take my word for it, if you've ever been to Russia ask them about their government!

'Why oh why would you think the people that developed the 'firehose of falsehood' method of propaganda to be lying'? Such a mystery!


Okay then explain the over 900,000 excess deaths in Russia during covid as compared to the official death count. Are they really bad at math?


I've been to Eastern Europe, thanks! Speaking of Ukraine, remember when the Russian government repeatedly and egregiously lied about their invasion of Crimea? lol.

Since crowded infrastructure leads to more covid, I'm excited to hear your explanation of Tokyo and Singapore, btw. The whole 'density = covid' thing is a myth that was debunked like a year and a half ago.

Official COVID death counts and excess deaths are different in all countries. It's not evidence of malice. We know COVID increases death risk in following year. If someone recovers from COVID and then dies from heart attack that maybe related to COVID after effects, that's not counted as a COVID death, but it's excess mortality. Asia has a strong masking culture even before COVID, and they are much more socially centered and receptive to public health measures. If you go to Japan during flu season, many people are wearing masks to not infect others.You really should travel more and not be making bold claims out of position of ignorance.

 

[fskimospy]

Official COVID death counts and excess deaths are different in all countries. It's not evidence of malice. We know COVID increases death risk in following year. If someone recovers from COVID and then dies from heart attack that maybe related to COVID after effects, that's not counted as a COVID death, but it's excess mortality.

The gap for Russia is much larger than the gap for most other countries. How do you explain this?

Asia has a strong masking culture even before COVID, and they are much more socially centered and receptive to public health measures. If you go to Japan during flu season, many people are wearing masks to not infect others.

In NYC mask culture is now very strong yet we still see much higher infection rates than Tokyo and Singapore. It's because the whole density thing is a long debunked myth. NYC's problem is CROWDING, not DENSITY.

You really should travel more and not be making bold claims out of position of ignorance.

I've been to nearly 40 countries and visited every continent except for Antarctica. Specific to this conversation I've visited both Russia and Singapore, so kindly shut up with the whole 'you should travel more' shit.

I think it's kind of funny that you think it's prejudiced to think the Russian government lies about everything when quite a lot of Russians will tell you the exact same thing, haha.

 

[senseamp]

The gap for Russia is much larger than the gap for most other countries. How do you explain this?



In NYC mask culture is now very strong yet we still see much higher infection rates than Tokyo and Singapore. It's because the whole density thing is a long debunked myth. NYC's problem is CROWDING, not DENSITY.


I've been to nearly 40 countries and visited every continent except for Antarctica. Specific to this conversation I've visited both Russia and Singapore, so kindly shut up with the whole 'you should travel more' shit.

I think it's kind of funny that you think it's prejudiced to think the Russian government lies about everything when quite a lot of Russians will tell you the exact same thing, haha.

Reporting standards are all over the place around the world, and probably varies a lot by region in Russia, same as by state in the US. Never ascribe to malice what can be explained by incompetence.
Did you take train, subway, bus, shuttle or elevator in Russia? They don't care about crowding.
All people will tall you their particular country's politicians are crooks and liars.

 

[fskimospy]

Reporting standards are all over the place around the world, and probably varies a lot by region in Russia, same as by state in the US. Never ascribe to malice what can be explained by incompetence.
Did you take train, subway, bus, shuttle or elevator in Russia? They don't care about crowding.
All people will tall you their particular country's politicians are crooks and liars.

Uhmm, where is this mythical subway system where people care about crowding?

As far as what ‘all people’ say this is untrue. It’s also just untrue in an objective sense. While all governments have corruption, Russia’s is basically a mafia family.

 

[kage69]

Reporting standards are all over the place around the world, and probably varies a lot by region in Russia, same as by state in the US. Never ascribe to malice what can be explained by incompetence.
Did you take train, subway, bus, shuttle or elevator in Russia? They don't care about crowding.
All people will tall you their particular country's politicians are crooks and liars.

Wtf are you talking about? Putin just had members of the few remaining independent news orgs declared foreign agents. It's not incompetence, it's agenda. They've essentially banned independent journalism.

Russia has neither a free press nor an independent judiciary. Putin and roughly a hundred oligarchs have all the power and all the money, it's basically an oil gang that owns a military. One with a lot of butthurt over how the Cold War ended.

Dishonesty and corruption are hardly universal and they vary a lot - compare India with New Zealand for an example. More to the point though, why are you trying to BothSides the more obvious parts of modern day Russian authoritarianism? I'm a bit on the confused and you're doing me a concern.

 

[senseamp]

Wtf are you talking about? Putin just had members of the few remaining independent news orgs declared foreign agents. It's not incompetence, it's agenda. They've essentially banned independent journalism.

Russia has neither a free press nor an independent judiciary. Putin and roughly a hundred oligarchs have all the power and all the money, it's basically an oil gang that owns a military. One with a lot of butthurt over how the Cold War ended.

Dishonesty and corruption are hardly universal, compare India with New Zealand for an example. More to the point though, why are you trying to BothSides the more obvious parts of modern day Russian authoritarianism? I'm a bit on the confused and you're doing me a concern.

Maybe not New Zealand. But US lied itself into how many wars already? Putin is very direct, pretty much saying "keep NATO out of the Ukraine or there will be trouble."

 

[fskimospy]

Maybe not New Zealand. But US lied itself into how many wars already? Putin is very direct, pretty much saying "keep NATO out of the Ukraine or there will be trouble."

Except of course that Putin lied his way into the war with Ukraine that’s already been going on for like seven years.

 

[senseamp]

We'll see who's lying when there's no invasion. Of course all the hysterical politicians will claim their hysteria is what prevented the war.

 

[Brainonska511]

We'll see who's lying when there's no invasion. Of course all the hysterical politicians will claim their hysteria is what prevented the war.

If there is no invasion, why would that mean Russia wasn't lying? Why couldn't it be interpreted as Russia decided to back down because the consequences for invading their neighbors more than they already have was too high?

Why are you carrying water for a murderous, imperial regime? Is imperialism okay when it's just your neighbors?

 

[Ventanni]

World politics is purely a game of dominance hierarchy. There are no friends, just shared interests. Putin understands this, and if he feels he can invade the Ukraine without too much blow back, he will.

That said, Russia might have a small economy, but they do have a larger military expenditure than any European country. They also supply 35% of the natural gas to the rest of Europe and can use that as leverage. If anything happens, expect the May/June season.

 

[cytg111]

Plus he has an iron grip on the population .. its not as he has to worry about declining polls and the next election like his opponents.
On top of that, the Russian people have been conditioned to endure shit that would cause revolt and rise of tiki torching morons elsewhere.

All in all, he is punching above his weight ... But the entire collective west is about fed up with him now, if he keeps this up.. our politicians is gonna get the backing from the populous they need to get boots on the ground, by then Putin will have started something he may come to regret.

 

[senseamp]

If there is no invasion, why would that mean Russia wasn't lying? Why couldn't it be interpreted as Russia decided to back down because the consequences for invading their neighbors more than they already have was too high?

Why are you carrying water for a murderous, imperial regime? Is imperialism okay when it's just your neighbors?

You'll rationalize every outcome to fit your initial assumption that Putin was planning an invasion of Ukraine, while in reality it's just the US and useful idiots whipping up hysteria that even Ukraine is telling them to tone down because it's unnecessarily scaring people and hurting their businesses. But hey, continue to believe that Putin is planning to occupy a country of 40 million with 130,000 soldiers. Cool story bro. Yellow cake 2.0.

 

[sandorski]

You'll rationalize every outcome to fit your initial assumption that Putin was planning an invasion of Ukraine, while in reality it's just the US and useful idiots whipping up hysteria that even Ukraine is telling them to tone down because it's unnecessarily scaring people and hurting their businesses. But hey, continue to believe that Putin is planning to occupy a country of 40 million with 130,000 soldiers. Cool story bro. Yellow cake 2.0.

No.

 

[senseamp]

No.

Gulf of Tonkin...
Medical students in Grenada...
Yellow Cake...
Nope, no pattern here, let's continue to believe the war drums