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Post your personal 2012 election predictions here!

W

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
This is just for fun to see who can come closest to predicting the outcome. Let's keep arguments about polls to any of the several extant threads addressing those issues. Here, you can post predictions about POTUS and/or Congress. You can just pick a winner, or indicate popular vote margins, and/or state-by-state predictions. So long as its a prediction rather than an argument, it's fine.

Here's mine (POTUS ONLY):

Popular vote: Obama wins by .5%
Key battleground states:

PA: O+3.5
WI: O+3
NV: O+2
OH: O+1
NH: O+1
IA: O+1
CO: too close to call (could swing either way)
VA: R+.5
FL: R+2
NC: R+3.5

All other states to go as generally forecast by pretty much everyone.

Obama 281-290 Romney 248-257

Note that these projections are not the same as fivethirtyeight or any other aggregator. They lean closer to Romney than any of the 7 poll aggregators. I have my reasons for this but I'd rather discuss reasons in another thread.
 
I have the right to change it until election day, just off the top of my head at the moment:

Popular vote: Obama wins by 2%
Key battleground states:

PA: O+6
WI: O+4.5
NV: O+4
OH: O+2.5
NH: O+1.5
IA: O+4.5
CO: O+0.5
VA: O+1.5
FL: R+2.5
NC: R+4
 
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Obama wins; regardless of the actual margins, it will be heralded as a landslide victory for Democrats, a universal mandate, and complete 100% support of Obamacare by all Americans.

GOP keeps the House; Dems keep the Senate, but lose a seat or two.
 
loki8481 said:
Obama wins; regardless of the actual margins, it will be heralded as a landslide victory for Democrats, a universal mandate, and complete 100% support of Obamacare by all Americans.

GOP keeps the House; Dems keep the Senate, but lose a seat or two.
Click to expand...

And Republicans will again say they didn't nominate someone conservative enough and pick an even more moderate in 2016 to get crushed by Hillary.
 
My prediction: Obama wins electoral college 303-235, just barely missing in Florida and losing NC and IN handily (4-8 points or whatever). That means Obama will also take NH, CO, NV, IA, MI, PA, WI and of course OH in my prediction. I could definitely see him taking FL though, that's 50-50 worst case, for the 332 electoral vote total.

I'd say he wins the popular vote by 2%+. Which is roughly 2.5M people. Which is less than I would have said a month ago before the first debate.
 
In terms of the Senate, Dems will keep the majority, and I'd say they are extraordinarily likely to pick up a seat, possibly more. But I'll say they pick up a seat and have 54 total with I's like Bernie Sanders and the new guy King in Maine caucusing with Dems.

Repubs definitely keep the house, but I can see Dems picking up double digits there. Probably only 8-12 seats, lots of razor thin margins there I'm sure.
 
woolfe9999 said:
This is just for fun to see who can come closest to predicting the outcome. Let's keep arguments about polls to any of the several extant threads addressing those issues. Here, you can post predictions about POTUS and/or Congress. You can just pick a winner, or indicate popular vote margins, and/or state-by-state predictions. So long as its a prediction rather than an argument, it's fine.

Here's mine (POTUS ONLY):

Popular vote: Obama wins by .5%
Key battleground states:

PA: O+3.5
WI: O+3
NV: O+2
OH: O+1
NH: O+1
IA: O+1
CO: too close to call (could swing either way)
VA: R+.5
FL: R+2
NC: R+3.5

All other states to go as generally forecast by pretty much everyone.

Obama 281-290 Romney 248-257

Note that these projections are not the same as fivethirtyeight or any other aggregator. They lean closer to Romney than any of the 7 poll aggregators. I have my reasons for this but I'd rather discuss reasons in another thread.
Click to expand...

I'm going with your list except I think Obama can pull off Virginia, especially if the turnout is heavy in Northern Virginia. That governor scares the crap out of em.

Edit: Also, Democrats retain Senate majority, Republicans retain House majority. Oh boy, more Boner.
 
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loki8481 said:
Obama wins; regardless of the actual margins, it will be heralded as a landslide victory for Democrats, a universal mandate, and complete 100% support of Obamacare by all Americans.

GOP keeps the House; Dems keep the Senate, but lose a seat or two.
Click to expand...

I'm right here with loki8481. An Obummer win by a decent margin, a 49-51 Democrat Senate (i's caucus as D's)split and a Republican majority in the House.
 
Obama wins but with a very thin margin, probably with fewer than 300 total EVs. Dems gain a seat or two in the Senate, GOP keeps the House.
 
I am praying for a 269\269 tie. It would be a laugh riot to see Romney\Biden in the WH.

But I expect Obama to win with the electoral college with a pretty close popular vote.
 
Obama wins popular vote by about 2%

He wins Ohio by about the same margin and takes PA and WI by 3-4%.

For my (mild) upset, I'm going to go with Obama winning Florida. I think they're a hurricane prone state who will approve of how he's handled Sandy.

I won't make a EV prediction, but obviously if Obama wins OH, PA, and FLA, he's getting to 270. I would guess somewhere around 320 EVs.
 
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I think Obama wins with a comfortable margin. I really hope the Dems can pick up some senate seats and take the majority in the house though.
 
Regardless of who wins the popular vote, the electors will surprise everyone by declaring a unanimous victory for Rick Perry. Some sage soul here convinced me that Rick Perry WILL be our next president some months ago.
 
Genx87 said:
I am praying for a 269\269 tie. It would be a laugh riot to see Romney\Biden in the WH.

But I expect Obama to win with the electoral college with a pretty close popular vote.
Click to expand...
Interesting conundrum, how would the secret service deal with a fist fight between the pres and the VP? Both details start beating the crap out of each other?
 
uclaLabrat said:
Interesting conundrum, how would the secret service deal with a fist fight between the pres and the VP? Both details start beating the crap out of each other?
Click to expand...

That would be awesome, hopefully the Secret Service would shoot and kill them both and we'd have the House Speaker as President.
 
I know this won't be popular and will be torn to pieces on AT but, I travel throughout the US regularly and see a lot of the US cites, smaller towns as well as rual areas. I have a feeling there are going a lot of surprised people here on AT on election night. If what I have seen and heard in my travels since August holds true, and it did in '08, I forsee a pretty large victory for.....Romney/Ryan.

I honestly don't believe either of these two are the best choice for our country and quite frankly, still am unsure how I will vote. I doubt it will matter much in any event and the economies both here and abroad will dictate what happens most of the next 4 years.
 
IDK and won't be surprised no matter who wins. The more I've read/heard about polling and their methodologies the more I've lost confidence in them. I doubt they have much value in terms of predicting the vote. I'm almost as curious about how accurate they turn out to be as I am to see who wins the election.

Fern
 
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