If Obama wins FL, it means he's probably going to get OH, NV, CO, and VA as well.Did the EC out back during the summer; had Obama winning 272-268. Don't really feel any different. Basically he only wins Florida but that's enough. I also had the Popular Vote being very close; but now I think Romney will win. Either way the PV will be within a percent.
House stays R, Senate stays D.
269-269 would be hilarious but not gonna happen. Remember they don't have to vote Romney-Biden if that happened.
Yup, this is indeed the most likely scenario. Not just based on Silver's polling model either, you can look at RCP's (more right-leaning) aggregation model and see that Obama will get to 303 without toss-ups at this point (though RCP leaves out a couple Virgina polls over the past couple weeks, don't know why).I'm going to completely abdicate personal effort and just run with Silver's numbers, Obama by 303 or 332 depending on whether Florida flops back into Obama.