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Post your personal 2012 election predictions here!

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,164
0
0
This is just for fun to see who can come closest to predicting the outcome. Let's keep arguments about polls to any of the several extant threads addressing those issues. Here, you can post predictions about POTUS and/or Congress. You can just pick a winner, or indicate popular vote margins, and/or state-by-state predictions. So long as its a prediction rather than an argument, it's fine.

Here's mine (POTUS ONLY):

Popular vote: Obama wins by .5%
Key battleground states:

PA: O+3.5
WI: O+3
NV: O+2
OH: O+1
NH: O+1
IA: O+1
CO: too close to call (could swing either way)
VA: R+.5
FL: R+2
NC: R+3.5

All other states to go as generally forecast by pretty much everyone.

Obama 281-290 Romney 248-257

Note that these projections are not the same as fivethirtyeight or any other aggregator. They lean closer to Romney than any of the 7 poll aggregators. I have my reasons for this but I'd rather discuss reasons in another thread.
 

Farang

Lifer
Jul 7, 2003
10,921
3
0
I have the right to change it until election day, just off the top of my head at the moment:

Popular vote: Obama wins by 2%
Key battleground states:

PA: O+6
WI: O+4.5
NV: O+4
OH: O+2.5
NH: O+1.5
IA: O+4.5
CO: O+0.5
VA: O+1.5
FL: R+2.5
NC: R+4
 
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nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,826
83
91
Obama wins; regardless of the actual margins, it will be heralded as a landslide victory for Democrats, a universal mandate, and complete 100% support of Obamacare by all Americans.

GOP keeps the House; Dems keep the Senate, but lose a seat or two.
 

nextJin

Golden Member
Apr 16, 2009
1,848
0
0
Obama wins; regardless of the actual margins, it will be heralded as a landslide victory for Democrats, a universal mandate, and complete 100% support of Obamacare by all Americans.

GOP keeps the House; Dems keep the Senate, but lose a seat or two.
And Republicans will again say they didn't nominate someone conservative enough and pick an even more moderate in 2016 to get crushed by Hillary.
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,530
271
136
My prediction: Obama wins electoral college 303-235, just barely missing in Florida and losing NC and IN handily (4-8 points or whatever). That means Obama will also take NH, CO, NV, IA, MI, PA, WI and of course OH in my prediction. I could definitely see him taking FL though, that's 50-50 worst case, for the 332 electoral vote total.

I'd say he wins the popular vote by 2%+. Which is roughly 2.5M people. Which is less than I would have said a month ago before the first debate.
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,530
271
136
In terms of the Senate, Dems will keep the majority, and I'd say they are extraordinarily likely to pick up a seat, possibly more. But I'll say they pick up a seat and have 54 total with I's like Bernie Sanders and the new guy King in Maine caucusing with Dems.

Repubs definitely keep the house, but I can see Dems picking up double digits there. Probably only 8-12 seats, lots of razor thin margins there I'm sure.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
16,351
4,314
136
This is just for fun to see who can come closest to predicting the outcome. Let's keep arguments about polls to any of the several extant threads addressing those issues. Here, you can post predictions about POTUS and/or Congress. You can just pick a winner, or indicate popular vote margins, and/or state-by-state predictions. So long as its a prediction rather than an argument, it's fine.

Here's mine (POTUS ONLY):

Popular vote: Obama wins by .5%
Key battleground states:

PA: O+3.5
WI: O+3
NV: O+2
OH: O+1
NH: O+1
IA: O+1
CO: too close to call (could swing either way)
VA: R+.5
FL: R+2
NC: R+3.5

All other states to go as generally forecast by pretty much everyone.

Obama 281-290 Romney 248-257

Note that these projections are not the same as fivethirtyeight or any other aggregator. They lean closer to Romney than any of the 7 poll aggregators. I have my reasons for this but I'd rather discuss reasons in another thread.
I'm going with your list except I think Obama can pull off Virginia, especially if the turnout is heavy in Northern Virginia. That governor scares the crap out of em.

Edit: Also, Democrats retain Senate majority, Republicans retain House majority. Oh boy, more Boner.
 
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monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,445
0
0
Obama wins; regardless of the actual margins, it will be heralded as a landslide victory for Democrats, a universal mandate, and complete 100% support of Obamacare by all Americans.

GOP keeps the House; Dems keep the Senate, but lose a seat or two.
I'm right here with loki8481. An Obummer win by a decent margin, a 49-51 Democrat Senate (i's caucus as D's)split and a Republican majority in the House.
 

ichy

Diamond Member
Oct 5, 2006
6,940
6
81
Obama wins but with a very thin margin, probably with fewer than 300 total EVs. Dems gain a seat or two in the Senate, GOP keeps the House.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,086
493
126
I am praying for a 269\269 tie. It would be a laugh riot to see Romney\Biden in the WH.

But I expect Obama to win with the electoral college with a pretty close popular vote.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
16,008
1,678
126
Obama wins popular vote by about 2%

He wins Ohio by about the same margin and takes PA and WI by 3-4%.

For my (mild) upset, I'm going to go with Obama winning Florida. I think they're a hurricane prone state who will approve of how he's handled Sandy.

I won't make a EV prediction, but obviously if Obama wins OH, PA, and FLA, he's getting to 270. I would guess somewhere around 320 EVs.
 
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Agent11

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2006
3,535
1
0
I think Obama wins with a comfortable margin. I really hope the Dems can pick up some senate seats and take the majority in the house though.
 
Feb 6, 2007
16,439
1
81
Regardless of who wins the popular vote, the electors will surprise everyone by declaring a unanimous victory for Rick Perry. Some sage soul here convinced me that Rick Perry WILL be our next president some months ago.
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
4,399
583
126
I am praying for a 269\269 tie. It would be a laugh riot to see Romney\Biden in the WH.

But I expect Obama to win with the electoral college with a pretty close popular vote.
Interesting conundrum, how would the secret service deal with a fist fight between the pres and the VP? Both details start beating the crap out of each other?
 

monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,445
0
0
Interesting conundrum, how would the secret service deal with a fist fight between the pres and the VP? Both details start beating the crap out of each other?
That would be awesome, hopefully the Secret Service would shoot and kill them both and we'd have the House Speaker as President.
 

DrewSG3

Senior member
Feb 7, 2005
330
4
81
Obama wins 290+ EVs
Dems pick up 2 seats in the senate
Dems come within 5-10 seats in the House
 

EndGame

Golden Member
Dec 28, 2002
1,276
0
0
I know this won't be popular and will be torn to pieces on AT but, I travel throughout the US regularly and see a lot of the US cites, smaller towns as well as rual areas. I have a feeling there are going a lot of surprised people here on AT on election night. If what I have seen and heard in my travels since August holds true, and it did in '08, I forsee a pretty large victory for.....Romney/Ryan.

I honestly don't believe either of these two are the best choice for our country and quite frankly, still am unsure how I will vote. I doubt it will matter much in any event and the economies both here and abroad will dictate what happens most of the next 4 years.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 30, 2003
26,916
172
106
IDK and won't be surprised no matter who wins. The more I've read/heard about polling and their methodologies the more I've lost confidence in them. I doubt they have much value in terms of predicting the vote. I'm almost as curious about how accurate they turn out to be as I am to see who wins the election.

Fern
 

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