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Poll addicts-Updated!!!

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Originally posted by: cmdavid
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
It's the Mason-Dixon Line all over again.

If Bush wins I predict it will be the start of Civil War II because the U.S. has a good chance of not surviving another 4 years of this Regime.
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civil war? do you really believe that?
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I don't know about a civil war, but I agree with the second part of his statement. I'm not happy about the prospect, but I agree that the country may not survive another four years of the Bushwhackos. 🙁

They launched an elective war that has cost thousands of lives an trillions of dollars base on misinformation, disinformation and outright lies.

They have sold out our citizens to big corporate money. Pick your industry, whether it's energy, communications, health care, insurance, mining and manufacturing, environmental concerns, etc., etc. ad nauseum, and they have continuously lied to us about their actions.

They have thrashed the Consitutional rights of U.S. citizens on U.S. soil.

If anything they say is to be believed at all, it is that Bush wants to lead by religious inspiration, regardless of any scientific reality to the contrary. Anyone who leads according to myth and fantasy, instead of reality is truly scary.

The costs of all of this, whether by blunder and stupidity or evil intent, will be born by generations.

We can argue social issues for years to come, but the prime directive is to make sure there is still a country where democratic principles determine our future. The first and most important step is getting rid of the Bushwhackos. :|
 
Just because the nature of the world today I don't think civil war will happen any time in the near future, but I do find it disturbing to see the West and Northeast firmly divided with the Midwest and South. It seems to have been like this the past few elections.
 
Originally posted by: Chadder007
Originally posted by: phynet
And no, there won't be a civil war, thats just silly.
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Correct....there will just be a bunch of Riots.....according to Mrs. Edwards.
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Yeah, but riots in Boston are to be expected anyway (no matter who wins the Election). Look at the Bosox defeat over the Yanks, or how about the Pats? Many up there enjoy a good plundering, and can you truly blame them? I for one cannot.

Pliablemoose
<---nearly a decade into my recovery from being a liberal now
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Theres a saying:
If your not a liberal when your young you have no heart.
If your not a republican when your older you have no brain.
 
Originally posted by: phynet

Theres a saying:
If your not a liberal when your young you have no heart.
If your not a republican when your older you have no brain.
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My preferred saying:

"Know how to make a liberal into a conservative?"


















































Make them earn &amp; save $100K.....😉

 
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: chess9
Aimster:

My old training partner tells me that Northern Virginia will go Kerry, while the rest of the state will go Bush. He thinks it unlikely Viriginia will swing to Kerry, but it IS remotely possible. For Bush to lose a Southern state (other than FL., which really isn't the South) would be a major statement to our elected officials.

But, Ohio is the state I can't get over. Imagine Ohio going to Kerry? The mind boggles....

-Robert
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I know Bush will win, but this year I think it'll be by only 1-3%. In 2008 Virginia will probably be a swing state IMO. You're friend is right about how NO-VA is most likely going for Kerry (where I'm from) and the south is going all out for Bush.
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My town/city of 75,000 in central Virginia voted Gore 60% Bush 30% in 2000. You're also forgetting the eastern shore of Virginia. Norfolk, Virginia Beach = Kerry territory.

I think it will be VERY close in Virginia this year. The closest its ever been. The Oct 18 Zogby poll has Bush 51% Kerry 48%. Remember, Nader got 90,000 votes in Virginia in 2000. He is not on the ballot this year.
 


Well there is a lot more Kerry stickers on cars here in Louisiana than there has been till now


not in the Louisiana i live in.
 
Damn I just stepped outside into society and N-VA has a lot more Bush stickers than before. More signs, but 1 person could have bought 10,000 signs. 50/50 here. Go figure.
 
The race is tightening. Six new polls in Florida show Kerry leading in 1 poll, Bush leading in 3 polls, and two being exact ties. Excluding the Gallup poll for the moment, the average of the other five polls (Insider Advantage, Rasmussen, Strategic Vision, Survey USA, and Zogby) is Kerry 47% and Bush 48%, a statistical tie. The Gallup poll shows Bush ahead 51% to 42%, giving Bush a lead far outside the margin of error. Could Gallup be right and everyone else wrong? Who knows, but remember that in 2000 Gallup was way off, greatly underestimating Gore's vote. I'm inclined to believe the other five and say Florida is tied. Three new polls in Ohio show a statistical dead heat there too. When many polls for the same state come in on the same day, the rule is the poll with the most recent middle date wins, with ties being broken in favor of the shortest one. The first entry for each state in the Polling data file listed next to the map shows the one used on the map.
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Fron todays EV.com front page.

We will all find out very soon though.
 
joshw10:

That's an interesting bit of information. I would be very surprised if Kerry won Virginia. Of course, Kerry is very strong in Ohio of all places, so maybe nutdz is right-there is a new dynamic working...but not to Bush's favor.

If I were a Republican looking at these numbers I would be very antsy. As the incumbent, Bush needs to be up by more than 5% to know he's going to win a state. This is a horse race now.

I won't be getting much sleep for the next 7 days, including being up all night at Dem headquarters next Tuesday. Ugh.... I have to talk to 200 people between now and Monday evening as well. Ouchee!!!

-Robert
 
It's unlikely, though for my part i'd be happy if either one won. If Bush wins the democrats will get another one on the chin, and serves them right for bitching these past four years about an illegit president. And if kerry wins, well what the hell did you think? Bush is a bumbling chimp.

So it's a win-win for me! In my ideal world both of them would lose.
 
Originally posted by: Pliablemoose

From the page:

The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
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IMHO, that's wildly optimistic.

Anyone undecided @ this point shouldn't be allowed to vote:|
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That's a prediction based in history; undecideds traditionally break for the challenger or opposite party.

Are you advocating for disenfranchisement?
 
He's basing those results sometimes on only one poll. The Gallup poll is extremely skewed towards Bush, so anyone who talks about a Gallup poll is way off base. Averages of National polls show Kerry ahead by one or two points. Also, these polls all skew Republican because they undersample young voters who don't have their own home phone.
 
Darkhawk28:

I'm now thinking Kerry will win by an even larger margin. Reverse Zeav's numbers.

Here's why:

1. The economy/jobs is a serious weakness for Bush, which is why Ohio is up for grabs. PA will go for Kerry for that very reason.
2. Floridians, particularly blacks and Hispanics, are some kinda' pissed over the last election. They are determined to vote in record numbers. People who didn't vote the last time are going to vote this time. We've registered over 100,000 new voters in Florida who are Democrats. We estimate the Republicans have only registered about 70,000. (However, the Republicans are more likely to vote by a few percentage points, even given the new enthusiasm for this race.)
3. Colorado is up for play and shouldn't be. The Republicans should have Colorado completely sewn up if they had done even a half-*ssed job. Although the number of delegates is small the race is symptomatic of a festering sore on the body politic.
4. The stock market is down substantially for the month-still about 300 points or so. This always favors the challenger.
5. The war in Iraq is going horribly, with Allawi blaming the U.S. for the death of about 48 new recruits and it now being reported that US troops left high grade munitions unsecured.
6. Consumer confidence is down and payrolls are down.
7. Many Americans now believe GW is not competent to lead our country. Yes, the GW is dumb mantra has some traction with voters.

On the other hand:

1. Bush is the incumbent;
2. He is a war president;
3. Voters give him high marks for fighting terrorism;
4. He's likeable.
5. He is strongly anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage.
6. He spent a lot of our money giving away perks to every pet project in the country and to the special interests, which does "buy" votes.

In my view, fear and loathing will not supplant intelligence and common sense. Kerry will win.

-Robert
 
i still dont get how catching some criminals in his backyard, having them arrested and go to jail suddenly turned pliablemoose into a conservative. imo, it sounds like he's just jerking our chain. 🙂

and it turns out that the majority of $100,000+ income earners are voting for kerry. bush supporters are mainly lower to middle income people, and not college educated.

http://ktla.trb.com/news/polit...story?coll=ktla-news-1
 
Headline in today's Orlando Sentinel:

"BLACK VOTERS LEAD ALL OTHERS IN EARLY VOTING" or something like that. I don't get the paper but saw it on my way through the grocery store.

The new law allowing early voting is a boon for the Democratic Party. Literally thousands of people who didn't make it to the polls on the ONE day previously alloted here are now going.

Bush is going to lose Florida I now believe.

-Robert
 
Originally posted by: chess9
The new law allowing early voting is a boon for the Democratic Party. Literally thousands of people who didn't make it to the polls on the ONE day previously alloted here are now going.

Bush is going to lose Florida I now believe.

-Robert
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I totally 100% agree with you, Robert. Bush is going down. He's disenfranchised millions of voters, in Florida alone, and they've been waiting 4 years to roast this turkey.

And the polls don't reflect the influx of new voters, the young ones who use cell phones (rather than landlines, as polls are conducted with), who it seems lean very favorably toward Kerry all over the US.

 
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