Plenty of trouble afoot in Iraq

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BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
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Originally posted by: conjur
Insurgent Violence Escalates In Iraq
Over 100 Killed As Post-Election Calm Dissipates
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12417-2005Apr23.html

Hmm...but I thought there were 155,000 trained and equipped Iraqis? Why aren't they fighting back? Oh yeah...they're getting killed by the dozens.

"Inusrgent" violence, which we were told only a few weeks ago was waning, and Iraqi security force competence, which we were told only a few weeks ago was improving, are in reality both doing just the opposite.

But what does it matter? Since America has chosen to accept Bush's hideous vision there's really nothing anyone can do.

It makes them feel patriotic. Or annointed into some kind of brotherhood. A fraternity. The Official Top Secret Junior Skull and Bones Society.

Look, we've even been convinced to segragate news from Iraq in one easily ignored thread.

George is right about one thing. May God bless America. 'Cause after four years of Bush and with four more to go we really need it.

 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
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I read this interview with Dr Les Roberts who conductd a survey on Iraqi civilian casualties due to Bush's invasion. The article includes a summary of the report.

Read it and put to rest the propaganda we're being fed.

Counting the dead in Iraq

Joseph Choonara, Socialist Worker

April 20, 2005

In 2004 the US-based scientist Dr Les Roberts led a survey into deaths caused by the invasion of Iraq. His results showed that approximately 100,000 Iraqis had been killed after the invasion. He spoke to Joseph Choonara about his survey

Your research on mortality in Iraq, published in the prestigious Lancet journal, made headlines across the globe last November. What motivated you to conduct the survey?

This is about the ninth ?hot war? I?ve worked in. In most wars people are killed more by disease and disruption than by bullets and bombs. But when I read the newspaper reports on the war, all I heard about were the bullets and bombs. I didn?t think the reports were describing the suffering of the Iraqis very well.

I thought it would serve the interests of Iraqis if I described what they were really dying of. So, if we found they were dying of diarrhoea we could do something about that.

If they were dying at home in childbirth because they were too scared to go to hospital, we could do something about that. Much to our surprise we found that these things weren?t what they were dying of. Most were dying violent deaths.

Tommy Franks from US Central Command told the press that the US army ?don?t do body counts?, despite the duty of care the Geneva Convention imposes on occupying forces. You showed it is possible to make mortality estimates.

Absolutely. I was smuggled across the border into Iraq. I went with just a suitcase and $20,000 in my pocket. All it took was six Iraqis brave enough to do the survey.

During a war things are messy and the Geneva Convention imposes very few constraints. But during an occupation things are quite different.

As I understand it there are obligations for the occupying forces that are similar to the obligations of a police officer on the streets here towards the local population ? to arrest them if they step out of line, but to protect them the rest of the time.

Most of the people killed by the coalition were women and children, which implies the use of a lot of force, and perhaps too much.

As far as I?m concerned the exact number of dead is not so important. It is many tens of thousands. Whether it?s 80,000 or 140,000 dead, it?s just not acceptable.

What methods did your survey use?

What we did is not really that complicated. First we went to the ministry of health and asked them how many people were in each city and each village on 1 January 2003.

Then we randomly picked 33 neighbourhoods to visit. In each of these neighbourhoods we randomly picked a house and visited the 30 houses nearest to it.

Some of the mathematical detail may be complex, but the basic idea was to find almost 1,000 households representing the whole of Iraq.

How would you summarise your main findings?

The bottom line is that by any measure the death rate after the invasion was far higher than the death rate before.

Most of the deaths were violent and most of those deaths were caused by the coalition forces. There is little doubt that these ?excess deaths? are as a result of the invasion and not some new flu epidemic or something else.

Are there other surveys of death rates in Iraq? Do they back up your findings?

In a very prestigious journal called the New England Journal of Medicine there was an article published on 1 July 2004. Military doctors interviewed soldiers returning from Iraq.

They interviewed them because they were interested in post-traumatic stress disorder, so they asked the soldiers about stressful things that might have happened to them.

Among other things they found that 14 percent of the ground forces in the army had killed a non-combatant and 28 percent of returning Marines had killed a non-combatant.

If you work through the numbers you come up with a figure pretty darn close to our estimate in the Lancet.

There have been other surveys with similar findings. But when the media talk about our figure they almost always compare it to the lowest estimate. That estimate ? the Iraq Body Count ? was calculated by academics based on press reports.

Even though the Iraq Body Count under-reports the total number of deaths, the patterns in your Lancet survey seem to mirror the patterns in their count.

Yes, the patterns in our findings are extremely consistent. The academics that do the Iraq Body Count estimate have said right from the start that their surveillance network is not, and could not be, complete. It?s made up of the deaths that get reported in the press.

But I?m very grateful that for a year and a half, when the rest of us were afraid to go to Iraq and do anything on the ground, they were reminding the world that civilians were dying.

What was it like going round and talking to Iraqis on the ground? Did security get in the way?

Americans are so hated that I couldn?t go around talking to people. We would pick a random point in each ?cluster? ? each village or town we surveyed.

I would show our Iraqi team how to pick a random point in a town, how to use a Global Positioning System to draw a map of the town and drive to the right point, how to find the few houses closer to the point.

Always in the first few houses there?s some that are a bit quirky. There might be a cousin visiting and you have to decide whether you include him in the sample. We worked through the first few clusters together to go through those issues.

I?d walk around on the street with our interview team. Then I?d go get in a car and hide, and the Iraqis would visit the houses by themselves. I was almost never out in public.

My driver had three brothers so he had access to four different cars and he would pick me up in a different one each morning. We?d leave at different times and use different routes.

I only went out with the interviewers for the first eight days. On the eighth day the police picked up our interviewers while I was in the car watching and that was a pretty bad experience.

After that we were convinced that interviewers knew what they were doing, and they didn?t want me there. For about 15 days I just stayed in a hotel room and didn?t go out.

Did the US forces cause trouble?

Things then, and I think still now, were so stressful that any vehicle would be searched by local police, in some areas by insurgents and by coalition forces or their Iraqi colleagues.

In many areas the police are unofficially on the opposite side to the local Iraqi forces. It?s always stressful when you come up to a checkpoint.

Did you get a sense of the wider cost of war, beyond the question of mortality?

I study mortality ? that?s something I know. Talking to workers from non-governmental organisations, my colleagues and my driver, I would ask if things were better. They said some things were better but they were really worried about security.

Most of them hate the Americans, most want the coalition troops gone. But because things are in such a flux they are also surprisingly hopeful about the future.

Two thirds of all violent deaths in your survey were in one city ? Fallujah. Why were the deaths so concentrated in this city?

The city was shelled extensively in the weeks before we were interviewing. We went and attempted to interview 30 households. Almost half of the houses we went to were empty.

We skipped over them and went to other houses. We think that our findings, if anything, underestimated the number of deaths because of the number of empty and destroyed houses. Some of the families probably fled, but many are probably dead.

Of those families sticking around in Fallujah, a quarter lost a family member in the few months leading up to the interview. Who knows how many have died since the assault on the city in November.

I get very angry about the coverage of Fallujah. I heard a show last week on public radio in the US. They said that it is believed that half the 200,000 people who used to live in the city had returned. Well, the ministry of health told us the population used to be 310,000.

The US press has been manipulated. Things don?t sound as bad if you say that 50 percent rather than 30 percent of the population are back.

During the invasion of Fallujah, Pentagon spokespeople said again and again that they believed 3,000 to 5,000 mainly foreign combatants were left in the city and that most of the civilian population had left.

Well, they went in, they killed a lot of people ? estimates range from 600 to 2,100 ? and they captured 1,600 prisoners.

Only 30 of the prisoners were identified as foreign combatants ? only 2 percent of those captured. In my country no one was held to account for what was either a lie or an absurd intelligence failure.

I know terrible things happened in Fallujah, but no one has been given a chance to get good information about what is going on.

What was the reaction to your survey when it was published?

The coverage in the press varied enormously. It was very different in the US and in Europe. I had more interviews with European newspapers and radio shows than I did with American ones. The interviews I had in America were with the left wing, marginal media, which doesn?t have a very wide audience.

What about political responses?

In Britain foreign secretary Jack Straw issued a press statement attacking the findings. I was quite pleased that in Britain the compassion of the British people demanded an explanation from what was the second biggest member of the coalition that invaded Iraq.

I?m disappointed that there has been no similar protest or demand for explanation in the US. On the day of the presidential elections, if you believe the polls, 60 percent of the US public believed that evidence of weapons of mass destruction had been found in Iraq.

In Britain I understand that almost no one believes that.

Right from the start the US public was behind the invasion. After 9/11 there was a certain retaliatory mentality in the public which didn?t exist in Britain. People in Britain were against it from the start.

Our press is also much more ?embedded? than yours. If you listen to the BBC you get a less jaundiced view than in the mainstream US media.

Your survey was published just before the US presidential election. You might have expected the Democrats to have an interest in raising its profile.

I can?t really speculate about that, but they didn?t. Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry voted in favour of the invasion of Iraq. Most of the Democratic Party went along with this. That makes them at the least complacent in this fiasco.

I get the impression from things you?ve said that you were opposed to the war. What impact did the survey have on you personally?

I?m not a pacifist. I?ve worked in places where I?ve wanted UN peacekeepers to come. I think there are problems in the world for which a military response might be appropriate.

But I think that in my country, in particular among the leaders of my country, there is a grossly inadequate understanding of what a horrible thing war is, and all the misery and suffering that goes with it. My country went to war much too flippantly. Our data strongly supports that.

I went to Iraq hoping I?d find fewer deaths. It certainly never occurred to me that I?d find more deaths caused by coalition forces than by non-coalition forces. Listening to the press in my country that would have been an unbelievable thing.

I?m convinced that the war has been a dismal failure. People in my country might not know that for years to come. But we?ve sown the seeds of hatred to an enormous extent.


Report summary

The survey found that the risk of death in Iraq was 2.5 times greater after the invasion.
Two thirds of all violent deaths were reported in the city of Fallujah. But even if this data is excluded, the risk of death still increased 1.5 times.
The survey estimates that 98,000 more deaths than would normally be expected took place in Iraq in the 17.8 months following the invasion. This figure excludes the Fallujah data. The figure is higher if the Fallujah data is included.
Before the invasion the main causes of death were from natural causes like heart attacks, but after the invasion violent deaths increased by 58 times. These violent deaths accounted for most of the ?excess deaths? in Iraq in the period studied.
Most of the violent deaths were at the hands of the coalition forces, mainly through air strikes. Violent deaths were widespread and reported in 15 of the 33 areas studied. Most of the people said to have been killed were women or children, according to those interviewed.
Mortality Before and After the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: Cluster Sample Survey was published in the Lancet. The authors are Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi and Gilbert Burnham. The report is available from the Lancet website. Go to www.thelancet.com (requires free online registration).

Speaking at a special lecture at London?s School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine last week, Les Roberts said that the Lancet was chosen because it was the most highly regarded medical journal in the world, with the tightest peer-review procedures.

 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
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And it's not getting any better:

Iraqi forces desert posts as insurgent attacks are stepped up
http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...sSheet=/news/2005/04/25/ixnewstop.html
Iraqi army and police units are deserting their posts after the recent escalation in insurgent attacks, according to reports from around the country yesterday.

The end of a relative period of calm after the election has posed the first real test for the embryonic security forces since coalition troops started cutting back on their military operations in February.

[...]

On the Syrian border, US troops in the Sunni city of Husaybah report mass desertions. An Iraqi unit that had once grown to 400 troops now numbers a few dozen who are "holed up" inside a local phosphate plant.

Major John Reed, of the 2nd Marine Regiment, said: "They will claim that they are ready to come back and fight but there are no more than 30 of them on duty on any given day and they are completely ineffective."

In Mosul, which has been a hotspot since insurgents fleeing Fallujah effectively overran it last year, residents have complained to newspapers that police now rarely patrol and only appear in response to attacks.

But greatest concern has focused on Madain, the town 14 miles south of Baghdad that in the past few weeks has been at the centre of the biggest crisis amid conflicting claims of ethnic cleansing.

Residents say that since a series of tit-for-tat kidnappings began three months ago police have effectively abandoned the town.

Sunni and Shia communities say two to three people have been disappearing each day since, blaming either elements of the Shia Badr Brigade and Sunni Ba'athists for the kidnappings.

When a convoy of police did try to install order, insurgents ambushed.
Someone might want to inform the Pentagon and the Propagandist. They're convinced there are now more trained Iraqi soldiers than "coalition" forces over in Iraq. Yeah...right. And I'm as rich as Bill Gates.


Terrified US soldiers are still killing civilians with impunity, while the dead go uncounted
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=632439


Marines From Iraq Sound Off About Want of Armor and Men
http://nytimes.com/2005/04/25/internati...f79ca337a2ec9&ei=5094&partner=homepage

What was that amendment the other day? Oh yeah...an amendment to increase armor for our troops in Iraq. Voted down by Republican Senators.



And what does the Propagandist feel about all of this?
more certain than ever on Iraq war
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/04/24/MNGDTCEA991.DTL
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
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Bad News in Iraq Pushing U.S. to More Active Political Role An AP News Analysis
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBU4LV4Z7E.html
WASHINGTON (AP) - Rising casualties, well-coordinated rebel attacks and the failure of Iraqi politicians to form a new government are pushing U.S. leaders toward a more active role in Iraqi politics. The recent surge in violence suggests a hands-off approach may not be enough and democracy in Iraq is still an open question.

The inability of rival factions to name a new transitional government has extended a leadership vacuum, played into the hands of an emboldened Iraqi insurgency and slowed momentum created by the Jan. 30 elections.

It has also clearly frustrated President Bush's national security team, despite the president's own repeated assertions that democracy didn't come overnight to the United States and can't be expected to flower quickly in Iraq.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other top U.S. officials in recent days have undertaken a coordinated campaign to persuade leading Kurdish and Shiite politicians to come together and form a new government.


"We're going to continue to say it is important to keep momentum in the political process," Rice told reporters in Crawford, Texas, after Bush's meeting on his ranch with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Abdullah - a session in which recent developments in Iraq were high on the agenda. "It's a two-way street," she added.

Rice said she and other administration officials had had "broad discussions with all the parties in the region" about the new government, particularly the participation of the Sunni Arab minority, the party of Saddam Hussein.

Despite the increased U.S. pressure, Iraqi politicians failed again Monday to end the nearly three-month deadlock.

"All of us, but none more so than the Iraqis, I think, are eager for the process to move forward and to have a government that can act on the challenges facing Iraq," said State Department spokesman Adam Ereli.

What the future holds for Iraq "is a remarkably open question" right now, said Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It's particularly open when you remember that the administration went to war thinking that this whole period of stability operations and nation-building would last about three months."

The latest images from Iraq have been vivid and disturbing. They include Monday's attacks on an oil truck convoy and pumps in the north and coordinated Sunday car bombings that claimed dozens of lives in Tikrit and Baghdad. Also: the downing of a helicopter carrying civilian contractors and the shooting of the sole survivor; suicide bombings in a soccer stadium and at a military recruitment site; the claim by Iraq's new president that 50 bodies fished from the Tigris River had been Shiite hostages; and new kidnappings.

The pattern of violence shows that attacks are shifting to non-U.S. targets, especially Iraq's fledgling security and police forces. It also shows increased coordination. In Sunday's attacks, for instance, militants used a second set of bombers to attack crowds that formed in response to the first blasts.

The new violence comes as several key coalition partners are scaling down their deployments, further complicating Iraqi efforts to achieve stability.

A move by Australia to buck the trend drew praise Monday from Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

"The issue before the world's democracies is no longer whether one supported military action against Saddam Hussein. Rather, it is about helping the Iraqi people establish their own country, in a new era of stability and democracy," McCain said.

Australia has about 300 troops in Iraq and began deploying an additional 450 this month to protect Japanese soldiers conducting humanitarian work in southern Iraq.

Administration officials have been stepping up their involvement in prodding Iraqi leaders to form a new government.

Rice spoke Friday by phone to Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani and met Friday at the White House with Adil Abdul Mahdi, a senior Shiite politician slated to be one of Iraq's new vice presidents, U.S. officials said.

Bush spoke by phone with Iraq's new prime minister earlier in the month, and Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld also have been involved in the process of reaching out to Iraq's new leaders. Rice's top deputy, Robert Zoellick, made a surprise visit to Iraq last week.

"It's definitely a tense moment, no doubt. It is also true that the kind of improvement that looked like it might have been occurring in much of the postelection period seems much less solid now," said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior foreign policy analyst at the Brookings Institution.

"I think Americans' tolerance for casualties might ultimately waver if there is no visible sign of progress in Iraq," he said.
Ya think?

At least there is finally some recognition that things are FUBARed in Iraq and that more troops are needed in order to maintain security. But, from where will those troops come? The Iraqi security forces are turning into the Keystone Kops.
 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
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Also, after over TWO YEARS Bush still can't secure the six miles of roadway from Baghdad to Baghdad Airport.

Should be no problem securing the other 171599 square miles of Iraq. :roll:

Toughest commute in Iraq? The six miles to the airport.

By Jill Carroll and Dan murphy

BAGHDAD ? Samson has been delivering supplies to US military bases for a year. It's a good business that sends him to Baghdad International Airport daily. He reads Psalm 91 before every trip.

Samson, a native of Madras, India, pulls out his dog-eared, hardbound Bible and reads his favorite verse. "A thousand shall fall at thy side, and ten thousand at thy right hand; but it shall not come nigh thee."

He prays because the four-lane, six-mile stretch of road leading from central Baghdad to the country's main airport remains one of the most dangerous stretches of highway in Iraq, if not the world. It functions as a critical supply line into and out of the country, traversed daily by US military convoys as well as Iraqi and foreign businessmen, journalists, and aid workers.

So why is this vital strip of concrete, which takes only minutes to travel, still so difficult to protect?

One answer is that despite numerous US military checkpoints, the insurgents know that this is a "target rich" route that is the heart of military and contractor supply routes, and they continue to challenge every security measure devised.

Last Wednesday, three foreign contractors were killed in an ambush on the road. Two more died a day later when a suicide car bomber exploded.

Aid worker Marla Ruzicka was killed a week ago when a car bomber targeting a convoy on the road near her vehicle exploded. And an Italian intelligence agent was shot in March by US soldiers when he was shuttling a journalist to the airport who had just been freed by insurgents.

"All aircraft come only for Americans," Samson says. "So ... for people going and coming from the airport, because everyone knows they work for the Americans" they're a target. "Everyone working for the Americans must be killed, this is what they think."

Rebel violence has surged in recent weeks as political momentum generated by the Jan. 30 election has waned. Twin car bombings killed 22 people Sunday, and more than 180 Iraqi security personnel have died in the past six weeks. Iraqi politicians again delayed naming a government Monday, prolonging a three-month political vacuum.

During that same period, the airport highway has been scarred with fresh scorch marks from car bombs and roadside bombs. The land surrounding the road is flat and lined with scrubby palm trees and brush. The US military has cleared the wide highway median to keep insurgents from hiding in the vegetation. But stopping car bombers from cruising the stretch, looking for armored cars or military vehicles, is harder.

"So many times [an attack] happened just before I got to the place or just after I was there," Samson says, declining to give his full name for fear of retribution. He says driving armored cars for protection can often makes matters worse. "You are [asking] people to hit you because they know we are working for the Americans."

The danger of the airport road also speaks to the wider problem of securing a country in the face of a dispersed and committed insurgency blended within the civilian population.Millions of cars traverse Baghdad's roads every day, and just a handful of them are carrying suicide bombers. For the Iraqi government and US forces, it's a needle-in-the-haystack problem with few practical solutions. There is limited US military manpower for adding checkpoints, but even if it was logistically possible, stopping every car on Baghdad's roads would bring the city to a grinding halt and make the airport journey even longer than it is now.

One security consultant working for a Western media company in Baghdad says he advises his clients to keep their eyes peeled, wear body armor, and avoid private security details "like the plague." These convoys are the biggest targets on the road, he says. But for high-profile clients, the consultant says, it's still better for them to ride in armored cars, because the assumption is they're already being targeted.

The airport road is a direct link to the US headquarters in the secured Green Zone. But rather than risk the road, US diplomats fly by helicopter from the airport to the Green Zone.

Many Iraqis who aren't going to the airport have to traverse part of the road to get around Baghdad. "If I have people with me and we take the airport road [the passengers] start praying from the entrance until the end and after we take an exit from the road they say 'hamdulillah alsalameh,' " says taxi driver Radee Taha, using the Arabic expression used after someone has returned safely from a trip.

Mr. Taha's brother was shot earlier this month when he was on the airport road, sending his car flipping several times. But it wasn't insurgents this time. He says the gunfire probably came from private security guards in an armored SUV. Jittery security details and soldiers can also pose a hazard on the road.

"After the accident of my brother I will not take the airport road again," Taha said.

? Wire services contributed to this article.

 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
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I wonder how our Italian "coalition partners" feel about this?

What a surprise.

US soldiers exonerated in Baghdad airport shooting incident

Posted on : 2005-04-26| Author : Alan Cross
News Category : General

WASHINGTON: Army investigators have exonerated the U.S. troops, who killed an Italian intelligence agent in Iraq on March 4 in a stray incident.

The soldiers, manning a road leading to the airport in the Iraqi capital, had shot at and killed Nicola Calipari, a veteran Italian intelligence officer, who was rushing to the airport along with an Italian journalist, Giuliana Sgrena, whom he had got released from Iraqi captors. Sgrena was held hostage by Iraqi insurgents after she was kidnapped in February following her interviews with Iraqi refugees.

An U.S. army officer said the investigators found the troops did nothing wrong and will not be disciplined.

The death of Calipari had caused tension between the United States and Italy, one of Washington's staunchest allies in Iraq. Italian authorities refused to accept the report.
The report found that the soldiers had followed approved procedures, when they opened fire on the car carrying Calipari and Sgrena. The duo were coming to Baghdad airport to board a flight for Rome when the troops fired on them. Calipari threw his body in front of Sgrena to protect her.

The soldiers at the checkpoint told investigators that the car was being driven at high speed and failed to stop in spite of warnings. However, this contention has been disputed by the Italian officer, who was driving the car, and Sgrena herself.

Italian Foreign Minister Gianfranco Fini later told the country's Parliament that neither the car was speeding nor was any warning given to the occupants. On the contrary, he said Calipari had alerted U.S. authorities that they would be traveling to the airport to board the flight.

However, Army Gen. George W. Casey, U.S. commander in Iraq, had told journalists that he had no reason to believe that U.S. officials were alerted of the car and its occupants.

 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
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The Italians vigorously refute that, though. Getting to be a sticky situation between us and them.
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Iraqi forces desert posts as insurgent attacks are stepped up
http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...sSheet=/news/2005/04/25/ixnewstop.html
Iraqi army and police units are deserting their posts after the recent escalation in insurgent attacks, according to reports from around the country yesterday.

The end of a relative period of calm after the election has posed the first real test for the embryonic security forces since coalition troops started cutting back on their military operations in February.

On average 20 Iraqis and two coalition soldiers have died every day this month.
 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
8,363
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Thanks to George W. Bush, ?Civil War? Is No Longer a Taboo Phrase in Iraq

Luke Baker, Reuters

BAGHDAD, 27 April 2005 ? Civil war. It?s a phrase everyone in Iraq has strenuously avoided for the past two years.

Yet now, with no government formed three months after elections, and tensions deepening between Iraq?s Muslim sects and other groups, it?s on many people?s minds. Several clashes between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in events apparently unrelated to the two-year-old anti-US insurgency have highlighted the danger in recent months.

Whereas once politicians were not willing to utter the term for fear of dignifying it, it is no longer taboo. ?I do not want to say civil war, but we are going the Lebanese route, and we know where that led,? says Sabah Kadhim, an adviser to the Interior Ministry who spent years in exile before returning to Iraq after Saddam Hussein?s overthrow. ?We are going to end up with certain areas that are controlled by certain warlords ... It?s Sunni versus Shiite, that is the issue that is really in the ascendancy right now, and that wasn?t the case right after the elections.?

In Madaen and other mixed Sunni-Shiite towns on the rivers south of Baghdad, rival groups have been carrying out revenge attacks since before the January polls, police said. This month more than 50 bodies have been pulled from the Tigris River. In the poor Shiite district of Shuala in western Baghdad, there has been a series of car bombings and killings, apparently related to tensions with Sunni militants in the neighboring district of Abu Ghraib, one of Iraq?s most violent. Similar violence has hit towns north of Baghdad, such as Baquba, where Sunni and Shiite mosques have been bombed.

In part the tensions are the result of the long-declared intention by Sunni militants such as Jordanian Abu Mussab Al-Zarqawi to sow sectarian discord and provoke civil war. But they also reflect a natural increase in animosity between the two sects since the Jan. 30 poll, which handed power to the Shiite majority after decades of Sunni-led rule.

The failure to form a government in the immediate aftermath of the ballot, when the nation was buoyed by the fact more than 8 million people defied threats and voted, has allowed distrust to grow as all sides scramble to secure a share of power.

?The huge window of opportunity created by the success of the elections has been frittered away in the politics of personal gain and internecine squabbling,? said Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at Queen Mary University of London. He now sees politicians using the sectarian issue to leverage more power, a move that could backfire. ?Using sectarianism as a bargaining chip and for political advantage is rankly irresponsible ... it?s the sort of thing that can start a slide into civil war,? he said.

At the same time, he said conditions in Iraq did not yet resemble the conventional scenario of civil war in which various communities with militias face off against one another ? as they did in Lebanon in the 1970s and 80s. ?Iraq is more fractured and atomized than that,? he said.

Still, there are worrying signs. Several Sunni-led military units operating under the Interior Ministry?s banner and created with the support of US forces, are leading the battle against the insurgency. But if, as widely expected, a Shiite takes over the Interior Ministry when a new government is named, those units could be purged ? a course that US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warned against during a visit to Iraq this month.

The Sunni-led units could be replaced by soldiers from the Badr Organization, a militia loyal to the main Shiite party. Interior Ministry officials fear the Sunni commanders, with their well-armed and trained men, could then break away to set up rival militias. ?Both sides are sharpening their knives. They are saying, ?we?ve got to protect our own people?. It is not a good situation,? said Kadhim at the Interior Ministry.

Tensions are not limited to Sunnis and Shiites. Non-Arab Kurds, who came second to a Shiite alliance in the election, are also determined to consolidate their power. President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, wants a security role for the peshmerga, or Kurdish militia, to safeguard the Kurdish heartlands in the north. Yet he rules out civil war.

?The wisdom of the Sunni and Shiite leadership,? he told Al-Hayat newspaper yesterday, ?prevents ... the possibility of the outbreak of civil war, and this is unlikely.?

 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
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CIVIL WAR

"WHAT WE'VE GOT HERE IS FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE.
SOME MEN YOU JUST CAN'T REACH...
SO, YOU GET WHAT WE HAD HERE LAST WEEK,
WHICH IS THE WAY HE WANTS IT!
WELL, HE GETS IT!
N' I DON'T LIKE IT ANY MORE THAN YOU MEN." *
(whistle)

Look at your young men fighting
Look at your women crying
Look at your young men dying
The way they've always done before

Look at the hate we're breeding
Look at the fear we're feeding
Look at the lives we're leading
The way we've always done before

My hands are tied
The billions shift from side to side
And the wars go on with brainwashed pride
For the love of God and our human rights
And all these things are swept aside
By bloody hands time can't deny
And are washed away by your genocide
And history hides the lies of our civil wars

D'you wear a black armband
When they shot the man
Who said "Peace could last forever"
And in my first memories
They shot Kennedy
I went numb when I learned to see
So I never fell for Vietnam
We got the wall of D.C. to remind us all
That you can't trust freedom
When it's not in your hands
When everybody's fightin'
For their promised land
And

don't need your civil war
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor
Your power hungry sellin' soldiers
In a human grocery store
Ain't that fresh
I don't need your civil war
Ow, oh no, no, no, no, no

Look at the shoes you're filling
Look at the blood we're spilling
Look at the world we're killing
The way we've always done before
Look in the doubt we've wallowed
Look at the leaders we've followed
Look at the lies we've swallowed
And I don't want to hear no more

My hands are tied
For all I've seen has changed my mind
But still the wars go on as the years go by
With no love of God or human rights
'Cause all these dreams are swept aside
By bloody hands of the hypnotized
Who carry the cross of homicide
And history bears the scars of our civil wars

"WE PRACTICE SELECTIVE ANNIHILATION OF MAYORS AND
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS FOR EXAMPLE TO CREATE A VACUUM
THEN WE FILL THAT VACUUM AS POPULAR WAR ADVANTAGE
PEACE IS CLOSER" **

I don't need your civil war
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor
Your power hungry sellin' soldiers
In a human grocery store
Ain't that fresh
And I don't need your civil war
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no
I don't need your civil war
I don't need your civil war
Your power hungry sellin' soldiers
In a human grocery store
Ain't that fresh
I don't need your civil war
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no uh-oh-uh, no uh-oh, uh no
I don't need one more war

I don't need one more war
No, no, no, no uh-oh-uh, no uh-oh, uh no
WHAZ SO CIVIL 'BOUT WAR ANYWAY?
(whistle)
 

Darkhawk28

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2000
6,759
0
0
I knew (for sure) the seeds of civil war were being planted the day that Bush and Company had to "recount" (more like rig) the Iraqi elections.
 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
8,363
0
0
This can't be a good sign. If Iraq's newly elected MPs aren't safe, no one is.

But we knew that already, didn't we?

Gunmen Kill Iraqi Lawmaker in Baghdad

Wed Apr 27, 2005 08:27 AM ET

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Gunmen shot dead a member of Iraq's parliament outside her house in Baghdad Wednesday, Iraqi police said.

They identified the victim as Lame'a abed Khadawi, a member of caretaker Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's political party.

The attack occurred in front of her home in eastern Baghdad.

She is believed to be the first person in the 275-member National Assembly to be killed. The assembly was formed after elections on Jan. 30 this year.

Insurgents and gunmen have targeted politicians in the past. The former head of the Iraqi Governing Council, the predecessor to the interim government, was assassinated in a car bombing in May last year.

Earlier this month, Allawi survived an assassination attempt when his convoy was attacked by a car bomber.

Iraq's parliament had met for several hours earlier on Wednesday to discuss its rules and regulations and other issues. It was also expected to vote on a proposed cabinet, the next step in the formation of a new government.

The parliament meets in the heavily-fortified Green Zone in central Baghdad and prominent lawmakers are often given police escorts around the capital to protect against the risk of assassination attempts.

Khadawi was one of around 90 women elected to the assembly in January. By law, a third of the candidates on party lists had to be women.

 

Ozoned

Diamond Member
Mar 22, 2004
5,578
0
0
A Practical View (inclined to action as opposed to speculation) towers above and overshadows the
sensationalism, and the negativism, that this thread begs for...


POSITIVE IRAQ WAR EFFORTS
The SPEAKER pro tempore. Under a
previous order of the House, the gentleman
from Nebraska (Mr. OSBORNE) is
recognized for 5 minutes.

Mr. OSBORNE.

Mr. Speaker, so often
when we hear of events in the Middle
East the reports are negative, sometimes
even the discussion on the floor
reflects a great deal of negativism.
Recently, I led a delegation to Jordan
and Iraq and later to Germany.
Matter of fact, we just returned yesterday.
And I thought I would report on
what I saw there because so often soldiers
say we really wish you would go
back and tell the American people the
war we are fighting and not the one
that they see on television or in the
newspapers.
So, on previous trips, I had been
amazed at how positive the morale
was. Everyplace that I went, soldiers
seemed to be rather upbeat, pulled together,
seemed to have a sense of mission.
As we flew into the Al Asad, which is
a somewhat remote base about 90 miles
west of Baghdad out in the desert, extreme
cold, no vegetation, no trees, no
grass, as we landed there in the dust
and the sand, I thought, this is the
place where we are going to see some
people who are really pretty negative
about what is going on, and I was really
surprised.
There were 180 Nebraskans from my
home State there. That is why I went
there. They had not had a CODEL there
for at least 9 months, maybe never
there. And again I saw the same thing,
a sense of accomplishment, a real sense
of pride in what they were doing. I
pressed them, and I talked to them,
and I still got no negative comments
and no major complaints.
We went on down to Baghdad, and we
talked to General Petraeus, who is in
charge of training the Iraqi soldiers,
and General Casey, who is in charge of
the overall command there. General
Casey made the point that the infrastructure
still needs improving. Obviously,
the electricity is better, but it is
still not working all the time. Sewage
at times is not what it should be; and,
at times, their oil pipelines are getting
blown up. But, again, there is general
improvement, but they both said the
January 30 elections were truly a watershed
event. Since that time, there
has been a definite qualitative shift in
what is happening in Iraq.
I thought I would just point out some
of the things that we were told and
some of the things that we observed.
General Casey said, and General
Petraeus as well, that by the end of the
year Iraqi troops should be out in front
in all concentrations in Iraq. They
would have, in many cases, U.S.
backup, but there are right now several
areas of Iraq that are totally controlled,
with no U.S. backup, by Iraqi
forces. So the training of the Iraqis has
been excellent.
The Iraqi intelligence is improving.
Many Iraqis are now coming forward
with information regarding insurgents
that were not coming forward before.
The attacks have been reduced, and the
Iraqis are certainly much more confident
of their future.
Apparently, many of the Sunnis are
regretting not having participated in
the elections, and at this point they
are beginning to volunteer for the
army, for the police, which was something
that was unheard of a few
months ago, and the Sunnis are pressing
to get a place at the table in the
new government.
There is no shortage of Iraqi recruits
apparent at the present time. There are
roughly 100 battalions of army Iraqis,
152,000 total have been trained and
equipped, 85,000 police, 67,000 members
of the army. The Iraqis have been provided
with up-armored vehicles, body
armor, about 130,000 sets. So they are
well over halfway to their goal of
270,000 Iraqi soldiers trained.
Also, the Iraqis are performing much
better, whether they are policemen or
soldiers. The recent instigation or uprising
in downtown Baghdad by al
Sadr, where we have several thousands
of his supporters demonstrating, it was
well-orchestrated, but the thing that
we did not hear was that whole situation
was controlled by Iraqi police,
with no U.S. backup, and so we find
that they are much in control of the
situation.
We also had a chance to talk to Mr.
al Jafari, the prime minister. When we
asked him what he wanted to say to
the American people, he had just been
installed as prime minister the day before
we saw him, he said, the thing I
would like to say is we owe a debt of
gratitude to the United States and particularly
for the loss of soldiers. He
said, when you sent your soldiers over
here and the sacrifices they made, it is
something we can never forget, and
that we will always be grateful for.
We asked him if he would have an inclusive
government, if he would include
the Kurds and Sunnis and Shiites.
He said he would, and that remains
to be seen, because he is linked
with a very conservative Islamic Shiite
party that has some ties to Iran. So I
guess the proof will be in the pudding.
 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
8,363
0
0
Originally posted by: Ozoned
A Practical View (inclined to action as opposed to speculation) towers above and overshadows the
sensationalism, and the negativism, that this thread begs for...

Zooned,

Your practical view...

Please resubmit your search
Search results are only retained for a limited amount of time.Your search results have either been deleted, or the file has been updated with new information.

...doesn't work.

 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Originally posted by: BBond
This can't be a good sign. If Iraq's newly elected MPs aren't safe, no one is.

But we knew that already, didn't we?

Gunmen Kill Iraqi Lawmaker in Baghdad

Wed Apr 27, 2005 08:27 AM ET

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Gunmen shot dead a member of Iraq's parliament outside her house in Baghdad Wednesday, Iraqi police said.

They identified the victim as Lame'a abed Khadawi, a member of caretaker Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's political party.

The attack occurred in front of her home in eastern Baghdad.

She is believed to be the first person in the 275-member National Assembly to be killed. The assembly was formed after elections on Jan. 30 this year.

Insurgents and gunmen have targeted politicians in the past. The former head of the Iraqi Governing Council, the predecessor to the interim government, was assassinated in a car bombing in May last year.

Earlier this month, Allawi survived an assassination attempt when his convoy was attacked by a car bomber.

Iraq's parliament had met for several hours earlier on Wednesday to discuss its rules and regulations and other issues. It was also expected to vote on a proposed cabinet, the next step in the formation of a new government.

The parliament meets in the heavily-fortified Green Zone in central Baghdad and prominent lawmakers are often given police escorts around the capital to protect against the risk of assassination attempts.

Khadawi was one of around 90 women elected to the assembly in January. By law, a third of the candidates on party lists had to be women.
Damn...that sucks. I will say this, though. These people are knowingly partaking in one of the most life-threatening jobs in the world yet they still do it. I have hope for Iraq but it's because of the Iraqis themselves, not anything the Propagandist doing (or, more accurately, not doing)

Also,

US admits Iraq insurgency undiminished
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200504/s1354084.htm
The Iraqi insurgency is just as strong now as it was one year ago, the most senior US military officer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Richard Myers has admitted.

Gen Myers also insists the US and coalition forces are winning the war and is confident of military victory.

"I'm going to say this: I think we are winning, okay. I think we're definitely winning. I think we've been winning for some time," Myers told reporters.
Wow. Talk about double-speak!
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Insurgent Violence Escalates In Iraq
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s.../20050424/ts_washpost/a12417_2005apr23
BAGHDAD, April 23 -- Violence is escalating sharply in Iraq after a period of relative calm that followed the January elections. Bombings, ambushes and kidnappings targeting Iraqis and foreigners, both troops and civilians, have surged this month while the new Iraqi government is caught up in power struggles over cabinet positions.

Many attacks have gone unchallenged by Iraqi forces in large areas of the country dominated by insurgents, according to the U.S. military, Iraqi officials and civilians and visits by Washington Post correspondents. Hundreds of Iraqis and foreigners have either been killed or wounded in the last week.

"Definitely, violence is getting worse," said a U.S. official in Baghdad, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "My strong sense is that a lot of the political momentum that was generated out of the successful election, which was sort of like a punch in the gut to the insurgents, has worn off." The political stalemate "has given the insurgents new hope," the official added, repeating a message Americans say they are increasingly giving Iraqi leaders.
 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
8,363
0
0
Does anyone remember the report that came out a few months ago which stated that the "insurgency" in Iraq is fueled by the U.S. military presence?

I wonder when Bush is going to get a chance to read it. Or rather, when Kindasleazy and Andy Card get a chance to read it and tell Bush what it says. :roll:

 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Originally posted by: BBond
Does anyone remember the report that came out a few months ago which stated that the "insurgency" in Iraq is fueled by the U.S. military presence?

I wonder when Bush is going to get a chance to read it. Or rather, when Kindasleazy and Andy Card get a chance to read it and tell Bush what it says. :roll:
Don't worry. Rumsfeld to Free Saddam If He Stops Insurgence ;)
 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
8,363
0
0
Originally posted by: conjur
Originally posted by: BBond
Does anyone remember the report that came out a few months ago which stated that the "insurgency" in Iraq is fueled by the U.S. military presence?

I wonder when Bush is going to get a chance to read it. Or rather, when Kindasleazy and Andy Card get a chance to read it and tell Bush what it says. :roll:
Don't worry. Rumsfeld to Free Saddam If He Stops Insurgence ;)

OMG!!!

It's the political equivalent of a "Hail Mary" pass. :roll: