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Orange stain second term results thread

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A house in my neighborhood that has a truck parked in the driveway with one of those back window stickers with the different colored stripes for cops, firefighters, etc, had a No Kings flag up this weekend.
 
Quinnipiac:

Trump gets a small bump in overall approval (maybe because of the “ceasefire”), but his econ numbers hit a record low.

Lots of pessimism that peace will last in Israel.

Dems in Congress have a substantial rise in approval, but still in the shitter.
IMG_5382.jpeg

And these generic ballot numbers are quite interesting.

IMG_5383.jpeg

poll.qu.edu

Who Is More Responsible For The Government Shutdown? Voters Blame Republicans Slightly More Than Democrats, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Trump Numbers Spike On Handling Of Israel - Hamas Conflict, Hit New Low On Economy | Quinnipiac U

"The GOP takes the harder hit for the grinding government shutdown while the Democrats, despite a miserable approval rating, get the nod on which party should control the House," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
poll.qu.edu poll.qu.edu
 
Roger Wilco said:
Quinnipiac:

Trump gets a small bump in overall approval (maybe because of the “ceasefire”), but his econ numbers hit a record low.

Lots of pessimism that peace will last in Israel.

Dems in Congress have a substantial rise in approval, but still in the shitter.
View attachment 132449

And these generic ballot numbers are quite interesting.

View attachment 132450

poll.qu.edu

Who Is More Responsible For The Government Shutdown? Voters Blame Republicans Slightly More Than Democrats, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Trump Numbers Spike On Handling Of Israel - Hamas Conflict, Hit New Low On Economy | Quinnipiac U

"The GOP takes the harder hit for the grinding government shutdown while the Democrats, despite a miserable approval rating, get the nod on which party should control the House," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
poll.qu.edu poll.qu.edu
Click to expand...
So that's saying generic congressional ballot is D+9. If that turned out to be the case that's about the same as 2018 when it was a blowout.

@gothuevos is on suicide watch I'm sure. Actually, my bet is he will find another poll that is less favorable and quote that one.
 
fskimospy said:
So that's saying generic congressional ballot is D+9. If that turned out to be the case that's about the same as 2018 when it was a blowout.

@gothuevos is on suicide watch I'm sure. Actually, my bet is he will find another poll that is less favorable and quote that one.
Click to expand...

Yep. Putting aside the shortcomings of generic ballot polling for Congress (generic approval is always lower than their specific candidate), those are awful #s for the GQP.
 
Pens1566 said:
Yep. Putting aside the shortcomings of generic ballot polling for Congress (generic approval is always lower than their specific candidate), those are awful #s for the GQP.
Click to expand...
It's also over a year before the election so it doesn't mean much as tons could happen between now and then. It's still bad to be down this far though.
 
fskimospy said:
It's also over a year before the election so it doesn't mean much as tons could happen between now and then. It's still bad to be down this far though.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately for the GOP most of the paths for turning this around depend on Trump becoming a totally different person and not progressively worse and more objectionable to the electorate. If I could lay money on which of these are going to happen it is not a close call.
 
K1052 said:
Unfortunately for the GOP most of the paths for turning this around depend on Trump becoming a totally different person and not progressively worse and more objectionable to the electorate. If I could lay money on which of these are going to happen it is not a close call.
Click to expand...
I think if the economic situation turned broadly positive the GOP’s situation would improve significantly. I don’t see many plausible ways that happens though.
 
K1052 said:
Best thing that could happen to him is if SCOTUS says the tariffs are illegal.
Click to expand...
Until the insane presidential immunity ruling, I thought that the Supremes would be willing to sacrifice Trump to help the Party overall. I was wrong; the Supremes are determined to destroy the Republic even if they destroy the Party in the process.
 
IronWing said:
Until the insane presidential immunity ruling, I thought that the Supremes would be willing to sacrifice Trump to help the Party overall. I was wrong; the Supremes are determined to destroy the Republic even if they destroy the Party in the process.
Click to expand...

I for one would not decide that the President could literally pull a Glock and put one in my brain pan and that it would be legal if he said the words "official act".
 
Did he designate BLM and Antifa as domestic terror organizations yesterday?

I guess a no kings protest.... is antifa/blm in his mind right?

So political opposition is now criminalized in the US.

Welcome to Moscow
 
K1052 said:
Best thing that could happen to him is if SCOTUS says the tariffs are illegal.
Click to expand...
I think it’s fairly likely they will because their commitment is not to Trump but to the Republican Party.

That will create a shit storm though as they will have to figure out how to untangle all this.
 
fskimospy said:
I think it’s fairly likely they will because their commitment is not to Trump but to the Republican Party.

That will create a shit storm though as they will have to figure out how to untangle all this.
Click to expand...

Or at least that their commitment to Trump ends where their investment accounts begin, as evidenced by them not letting him fire Fed governors (and especially Powell). Yanking the tariffs will send equities into the stratosphere.
 
I know the headwinds are very, very strong against this type of scenario…but more and more I’m wishing for some major third party to shake things up with the aim of reuniting the country between the ‘26 midterms and ‘28 election. This party would have to be most concerned with major reforms to realign the 3 branches of government with constitutional principles, reigniting economic prosperity for the 98% of Americans not in the top 2%, and getting billionaire/corporate dark money out of politics. Unfortunately, that last item makes this more of a pipe dream (can’t start a party and field candidates in every house race in all 50 states without some major billionaire mojo) so I’d be happy to get 2 out of 3.

I’m done waiting for Democrats to reform their own party and guillotine the old guard—and even if they could, I don’t think independents would join a more progressive D party.
 
UNCjigga said:
I know the headwinds are very, very strong against this type of scenario…but more and more I’m wishing for some major third party to shake things up with the aim of reuniting the country between the ‘26 midterms and ‘28 election. This party would have to be most concerned with major reforms to realign the 3 branches of government with constitutional principles, reigniting economic prosperity for the 98% of Americans not in the top 2%, and getting billionaire/corporate dark money out of politics. Unfortunately, that last item makes this more of a pipe dream (can’t start a party and field candidates in every house race in all 50 states without some major billionaire mojo) so I’d be happy to get 2 out of 3.

I’m done waiting for Democrats to reform their own party and guillotine the old guard—and even if they could, I don’t think independents would join a more progressive D party.
Click to expand...
A third party is completely unrealistic when you actually look at party structure and winner take all. The parties are basically a conglomeration of state and local parties, and ballot access is controlled by state laws (not the parties). A third party would need to fight a huge uphill battle for ballot access, then convince people to throw their vote that way. A very tall order.

Want to change the party? Participate in primaries and support your desired candidates. The parties are not static in ideology or candidates. If you want change, the best thing would be to get people to wear an existing party like a skin suit.
 
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