RE: Seattles passing game.
The short summary: Wilson is struggling (but finding ways to win) but it is easy to see why he is struggling: Seattles OL is horrible at pass blocking (e.g. against the Rams, who had 1 sack all season, gave up 3 sacks in 5 plays!), the pedestrian receivers from 2013 lost Tate and Harvin with no impact additions, and they are on their 4th string TE. Play calling has been bad (even players not names Harvin complaining). And as much as Harvin was a head case (?) the pass game was a LOT better with him on the team.
Now read on if you like statistics and breakdown from someone who watches the games:
It was nice to see the Seattle Offensive Coordinator (Darrel Bevell) stick with the run the last couple weeks. Maybe lost in the 350 yard rushing game is how bad the Seattle pass game has been the last 4 weeks. What happened 5 weeks ago? Bye-bye Harvin. Passing game should have been better, right, if Harvin was such an issue?
Comparing Seattles first 5 games to the last 4 games:
Wilsons TD-to-INT ratio dropped from 4:1 (Great! 8TD to 2INT) to 1:1 (Bad! 3TD to 3INTthis is bad even for a backup).
Passer rating has dropped from 101.0 (average of the rating for the first 5 games; Top10 rating) all the way down to 76.3 (bad!).
Wilson Completion Percentage dropped from 66.2% (Top 10) to 58.3% (Bottom 5 among league starters season average). Pete Carrol wanted Wilson to hit 70% this year and he started off well (near 705 first 4 games) but the last 4 games he has dropped off. Wilsons last 4 games only edge out the season percentage for the unspectacular performances by Cam Newton (58.1hurt and no receivers), Geno Smith (56.2benched), Mike Glennon (57.6benched). A lot of QBs, on middling teams or middling QBs, are doing a bit better (Blake Bortles 63.3, Austin Davis 63.4, Kirk Cousins 61.8, Teddy Bridgewater 60.4, Derek Carr 61.1, Brian Hoyer 58.5, Colin Kaepernick 61.9).
What happened after week 5?
As everyone knows Seattle traded Percy Harvin.
It would be easy to blame this all on injuries but to counter that look at who Seattle faced the first 5 weeks versus who they faced the last 4 weeks.
5 Games With Percy: Passer Rating of 101.0, 978 yards (196 ypg), 8 TD, 2 INT, 66.2% completion (92/139), 7.04 ypa Opponents in this 5 game stretch? 4 teams in the hunt for the playoffs (Denver, San Diego, Green Bay, Dallas) and Washington
4 Games Without Percy: Passer Rating of 76.3, 863 yards (215 ypg), 3 TD, 3 INT, 58.3% completion (70/120), 7.19 ypa Opponents in this 4 game stretch? Bottom Feeders Oakland (0 wins), St. Louis (2 wins), Giants (3 wins), and Carolina.
Percy obviously did something (or a lot of somethings!) to motivate the trade. You have to put that on Harvin. But they obviously werent using him right (less than 2 weeks @ NY Jets and he had 120 yards receiving; when a player can drop a bill after 2 weeks of practice with a completely new team you know they have talent that can be used), Seattle had a predictable screen game because they rarely took Harvin down field (making screens less effective which, even if you buy the argument Harvin cannot run routes (I don't buy this from watching him) you still need to keep teams honest), and even when he was only used as a decoy (which helped the team) he provided hidden net yards (e.g. teams kicking the ball out of bounds). And even his stats are misleading; e.g. the 3 called back TDs against Washington. Or, for example, the screen plays were sooo bad Harvin was getting contact on average <2 yards after the catch on screens which is poor design (It was so bad against the NYG this weekend Doug Baldwin yelled at the OC and said NO MORE SCREENS!) Seattle did a horrible job executing screens with Harvin as DBs didnt have to respect him going down field and Seattle was so predictable in the bunch formations (screen to Harvin!) We werent seeing fake screens and then deep tosses to the receivers faking blocks or using the natural pick action of the bunch to fake a screen and then have Harvin release deep or to the outside.
Seattle fans/local media have been quick to blame Harvin for so many issues they overlook how bad pass protection has been (contra the slogan Cable can turn bums into Pro Bowlers when the line has 2x first rounders and 2x second rounders) and have forgotten had bad play calling was in the SD and DAL games. RE: Coaching. It isn't just how the OC used Harvin and fed (or starved) Lynch. Seattle's special teams coaching was a dumpster fire against the Rams when they gave up a punt return for a TD, a 75+ yard KO return, and an obvious Punt fake on 4th and 3. Seattle lost that game after Wilson put up 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing. And the team still struggled to turn red zone chances into TDs. Way too many FGs.
The bottom line is everyone thought the 2013 receivers were pedestrian. Now take out Tate and Rice, take away Harvin, and take away the top 2 TE (Zach Miller and Anthony McCoy) and add to non-impact rookies and that is what the 2014 receivers look like. Add in a minus-offensive pass blocking line with Wilson pressured >40% of the time. Whatever the issues were/werent the stats indicate Seattle was much better passing game with Harvin. The eye test says the guys they have now are not very good. Wilson has a rookie (Richardson) who hasnt figured out he needs to box out the defender (one pick against NYG) and the reminder that as nifty as Doug Baldwin he isnt Tate, or even Harvin, when it comes to high pointing the ball. Baldwin is a good complimentary receiver, but not an X or #1. Not to mention Baldwin has had a ton of drops this year when he had only 2 last year. If 2013 receivers were pedestrians then the 2014 group are geriatrics or on life support. As for Wilson, he is still balling and finding ways to win but this years Seattle offense has very deep flaws. Unless Richardson and Norward emerge as impact rookies and Miller returns (ugh, they are on their 4th string TE with Miller, Anthony McCoy, and Luke Willson out) Seattle will be even more one dimensional than last years team on offense--and with a defense who took a step back (i.e. good not great) and then lost key starters for stretches (Chancellor, Wagner, Mebane, Maxwell, Lane, Malcolm Smith, etc.)
With 2x games vs. San Fran, 2x vs. Arizona, and games away at KC and Philly we will know by Week 17 if Seattle is a pretender or contender this year. Tough strength of schedule this year so if they make the playoffs no one can say they didnt earn it.
The short summary: Wilson is struggling (but finding ways to win) but it is easy to see why he is struggling: Seattles OL is horrible at pass blocking (e.g. against the Rams, who had 1 sack all season, gave up 3 sacks in 5 plays!), the pedestrian receivers from 2013 lost Tate and Harvin with no impact additions, and they are on their 4th string TE. Play calling has been bad (even players not names Harvin complaining). And as much as Harvin was a head case (?) the pass game was a LOT better with him on the team.
Now read on if you like statistics and breakdown from someone who watches the games:
It was nice to see the Seattle Offensive Coordinator (Darrel Bevell) stick with the run the last couple weeks. Maybe lost in the 350 yard rushing game is how bad the Seattle pass game has been the last 4 weeks. What happened 5 weeks ago? Bye-bye Harvin. Passing game should have been better, right, if Harvin was such an issue?
Comparing Seattles first 5 games to the last 4 games:
Wilsons TD-to-INT ratio dropped from 4:1 (Great! 8TD to 2INT) to 1:1 (Bad! 3TD to 3INTthis is bad even for a backup).
Passer rating has dropped from 101.0 (average of the rating for the first 5 games; Top10 rating) all the way down to 76.3 (bad!).
Wilson Completion Percentage dropped from 66.2% (Top 10) to 58.3% (Bottom 5 among league starters season average). Pete Carrol wanted Wilson to hit 70% this year and he started off well (near 705 first 4 games) but the last 4 games he has dropped off. Wilsons last 4 games only edge out the season percentage for the unspectacular performances by Cam Newton (58.1hurt and no receivers), Geno Smith (56.2benched), Mike Glennon (57.6benched). A lot of QBs, on middling teams or middling QBs, are doing a bit better (Blake Bortles 63.3, Austin Davis 63.4, Kirk Cousins 61.8, Teddy Bridgewater 60.4, Derek Carr 61.1, Brian Hoyer 58.5, Colin Kaepernick 61.9).
What happened after week 5?
As everyone knows Seattle traded Percy Harvin.
It would be easy to blame this all on injuries but to counter that look at who Seattle faced the first 5 weeks versus who they faced the last 4 weeks.
5 Games With Percy: Passer Rating of 101.0, 978 yards (196 ypg), 8 TD, 2 INT, 66.2% completion (92/139), 7.04 ypa Opponents in this 5 game stretch? 4 teams in the hunt for the playoffs (Denver, San Diego, Green Bay, Dallas) and Washington
4 Games Without Percy: Passer Rating of 76.3, 863 yards (215 ypg), 3 TD, 3 INT, 58.3% completion (70/120), 7.19 ypa Opponents in this 4 game stretch? Bottom Feeders Oakland (0 wins), St. Louis (2 wins), Giants (3 wins), and Carolina.
Percy obviously did something (or a lot of somethings!) to motivate the trade. You have to put that on Harvin. But they obviously werent using him right (less than 2 weeks @ NY Jets and he had 120 yards receiving; when a player can drop a bill after 2 weeks of practice with a completely new team you know they have talent that can be used), Seattle had a predictable screen game because they rarely took Harvin down field (making screens less effective which, even if you buy the argument Harvin cannot run routes (I don't buy this from watching him) you still need to keep teams honest), and even when he was only used as a decoy (which helped the team) he provided hidden net yards (e.g. teams kicking the ball out of bounds). And even his stats are misleading; e.g. the 3 called back TDs against Washington. Or, for example, the screen plays were sooo bad Harvin was getting contact on average <2 yards after the catch on screens which is poor design (It was so bad against the NYG this weekend Doug Baldwin yelled at the OC and said NO MORE SCREENS!) Seattle did a horrible job executing screens with Harvin as DBs didnt have to respect him going down field and Seattle was so predictable in the bunch formations (screen to Harvin!) We werent seeing fake screens and then deep tosses to the receivers faking blocks or using the natural pick action of the bunch to fake a screen and then have Harvin release deep or to the outside.
Seattle fans/local media have been quick to blame Harvin for so many issues they overlook how bad pass protection has been (contra the slogan Cable can turn bums into Pro Bowlers when the line has 2x first rounders and 2x second rounders) and have forgotten had bad play calling was in the SD and DAL games. RE: Coaching. It isn't just how the OC used Harvin and fed (or starved) Lynch. Seattle's special teams coaching was a dumpster fire against the Rams when they gave up a punt return for a TD, a 75+ yard KO return, and an obvious Punt fake on 4th and 3. Seattle lost that game after Wilson put up 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing. And the team still struggled to turn red zone chances into TDs. Way too many FGs.
The bottom line is everyone thought the 2013 receivers were pedestrian. Now take out Tate and Rice, take away Harvin, and take away the top 2 TE (Zach Miller and Anthony McCoy) and add to non-impact rookies and that is what the 2014 receivers look like. Add in a minus-offensive pass blocking line with Wilson pressured >40% of the time. Whatever the issues were/werent the stats indicate Seattle was much better passing game with Harvin. The eye test says the guys they have now are not very good. Wilson has a rookie (Richardson) who hasnt figured out he needs to box out the defender (one pick against NYG) and the reminder that as nifty as Doug Baldwin he isnt Tate, or even Harvin, when it comes to high pointing the ball. Baldwin is a good complimentary receiver, but not an X or #1. Not to mention Baldwin has had a ton of drops this year when he had only 2 last year. If 2013 receivers were pedestrians then the 2014 group are geriatrics or on life support. As for Wilson, he is still balling and finding ways to win but this years Seattle offense has very deep flaws. Unless Richardson and Norward emerge as impact rookies and Miller returns (ugh, they are on their 4th string TE with Miller, Anthony McCoy, and Luke Willson out) Seattle will be even more one dimensional than last years team on offense--and with a defense who took a step back (i.e. good not great) and then lost key starters for stretches (Chancellor, Wagner, Mebane, Maxwell, Lane, Malcolm Smith, etc.)
With 2x games vs. San Fran, 2x vs. Arizona, and games away at KC and Philly we will know by Week 17 if Seattle is a pretender or contender this year. Tough strength of schedule this year so if they make the playoffs no one can say they didnt earn it.
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