Official Supertuesday Discussion Thread **UPDATED x2**

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: loki8481
here's my question... if Hillary pulls out a delegate win, will it give her momentum? or will the media paint it as a tie?

The delegate count is going to split fairly evenly.

Obama has won 14 states, Hillary has won 8.

Obama has proven he can win white voters, and women voters.

 

[ElFenix]

are the current california numbers due to absentee votes cast a week ago? hilldawg at 55% and obama at 33%?

 

[BrownTown]

Originally posted by: ElFenix
are the current california numbers due to absentee votes cast a week ago? hilldawg at 55% and obama at 33%?

no, Hillster pwned Obama over there, so now shes got big time momentum although it might not be over yet, but it looks like Obama is done

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Farang
Final results seem to be:


CLINTON: AR, AZ, CA, MA, NY, NJ, OK, TN
OBAMA: AK, AL, CT, CO, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, UT

Am I missing one here?

NM.

They are being extremely slow in reporting, but Obama clearly won the exit polls, getting

51% of the male vote with Clinton getting 39%.
47% to 47% among female voters.

Obama should win NM.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: ElFenix
are the current california numbers due to absentee votes cast a week ago? hilldawg at 55% and obama at 33%?

For the most part yes. Those numbers will tighten significantly though.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481
here's my question... if Hillary pulls out a delegate win, will it give her momentum? or will the media paint it as a tie?

The delegate count is going to split fairly evenly.

Obama has won 14 states, Hillary has won 8.

Obama has proven he can win white voters, and women voters.

yeah, the only real hang-up I have about the Obama state wins are the states that a democrat really has no chance of carrying no matter what, even if it was Jesus himself running on the DNC ticket.

 

[Capitalizt]

Its crazy close in Missouri between Hellary and Obama? Is MO a winner take all state? I'm praying Obama can take it.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Capitalizt
Its crazy close in Missouri between Hellary and Obama? Is MO a winner take all state? I'm praying Obama can take it.

MO is not a winner take all state... so it doesn't really matter at this point except for bragging rights.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481
here's my question... if Hillary pulls out a delegate win, will it give her momentum? or will the media paint it as a tie?

The delegate count is going to split fairly evenly.

Obama has won 14 states, Hillary has won 8.

Obama has proven he can win white voters, and women voters.

yeah, the only real hang-up I have about the Obama state wins are the states that a democrat really has no chance of carrying no matter what, even if it was Jesus himself running on the DNC ticket.

Uh....

Other than Georgia and Alabama, the rest of his states can easily be won in November by a dem.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Capitalizt
Its crazy close in Missouri between Hellary and Obama? Is MO a winner take all state? I'm praying Obama can take it.

MO is not a winner take all state... so it doesn't really matter at this point except for bragging rights.

The dems do not use winner take all, at all.

 

[Wreckem]

Bottom line is, Obamas trajectory is still upward. It looks good for Obama.

And Bill Clinton should really apologize over that comment after SC about Obama being another Jesse Jackson who won 12 primaries in '88. Obama just won 14 states in one night.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481
here's my question... if Hillary pulls out a delegate win, will it give her momentum? or will the media paint it as a tie?

The delegate count is going to split fairly evenly.

Obama has won 14 states, Hillary has won 8.

Obama has proven he can win white voters, and women voters.

yeah, the only real hang-up I have about the Obama state wins are the states that a democrat really has no chance of carrying no matter what, even if it was Jesus himself running on the DNC ticket.

AK, AL, CT, CO, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, NM, MN, MO, ND, UT

Note I'm going with Wreckem but NM we have no idea about yet, just for the sake of argument.

Bolded are nearly absolutely unwinnable for Obama. I gave him chances in the south because of the black vote and McCain isn't well liked down there. He has roots in Kansas that may come into play also. Maybe I'm being too lenient here, it is tough to predict though reds and blues have been swayed before.

So that is 9 wins and 5 'cheap' wins. Still not something to scoff at. Also remember Obama's ability to fund raise and that those donors come from all states.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481
here's my question... if Hillary pulls out a delegate win, will it give her momentum? or will the media paint it as a tie?

The delegate count is going to split fairly evenly.

Obama has won 14 states, Hillary has won 8.

Obama has proven he can win white voters, and women voters.

yeah, the only real hang-up I have about the Obama state wins are the states that a democrat really has no chance of carrying no matter what, even if it was Jesus himself running on the DNC ticket.

Uh....

Other than Georgia and Alabama, the rest of his states can easily be won in November by a dem.

I don't really see Idaho, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, or Utah turning blue any time soon.

 

[UberNeuman]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481
here's my question... if Hillary pulls out a delegate win, will it give her momentum? or will the media paint it as a tie?

The delegate count is going to split fairly evenly.

Obama has won 14 states, Hillary has won 8.

Obama has proven he can win white voters, and women voters.

yeah, the only real hang-up I have about the Obama state wins are the states that a democrat really has no chance of carrying no matter what, even if it was Jesus himself running on the DNC ticket.

These days, they'd find Jesus is a dirty lib...

 

[nageov3t]

woot. Missouri called for McCain

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481
here's my question... if Hillary pulls out a delegate win, will it give her momentum? or will the media paint it as a tie?

The delegate count is going to split fairly evenly.

Obama has won 14 states, Hillary has won 8.

Obama has proven he can win white voters, and women voters.

yeah, the only real hang-up I have about the Obama state wins are the states that a democrat really has no chance of carrying no matter what, even if it was Jesus himself running on the DNC ticket.

AK, AL, CT, CO, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, NM, MN, MO, ND, UT

Note I'm going with Wreckem but NM we have no idea about yet, just for the sake of argument.

Bolded are nearly absolutely unwinnable for Obama. I gave him chances in the south because of the black vote and McCain isn't well liked down there.

So that is 9 wins and 5 'cheap' wins. Still not something to scoff at. Also remember Obama's ability to fund raise and that those donors come from all states.

AK is Alaska. Which is winnable by a Dem in November.

NM will go Dem in November. Immigration will win it for them. Plus its been trending Dem the past three cyles.

AL, GA, and UT are the only completely unwinnable states. ND can be won by a Dem. There House Rep and both Senators are Dems.

 

[miketheidiot]

so obama won the swing states basically?

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481
here's my question... if Hillary pulls out a delegate win, will it give her momentum? or will the media paint it as a tie?

The delegate count is going to split fairly evenly.

Obama has won 14 states, Hillary has won 8.

Obama has proven he can win white voters, and women voters.

yeah, the only real hang-up I have about the Obama state wins are the states that a democrat really has no chance of carrying no matter what, even if it was Jesus himself running on the DNC ticket.

Uh....

Other than Georgia and Alabama, the rest of his states can easily be won in November by a dem.

I don't really see Idaho, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, or Utah turning blue any time soon.

Uh, Kansas has been trending Dem. They have a Dem governor(who endorsed Obama). The Rep and two Senators for ND are Dems.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: sirjonk
If Hillary doesn't finish off Obama tonite, and it for sure looks like that isn't going to happen, then she's gonna have problems down the stretch, as Obama seems to be out raising her 3 to 1, and his momentum is still growing. Still, she may maintain a delegate lead, MI/FL will likely be seated at the convention, so who the hell knows what's going to happen.

Yes, if they don't seat MI/FL than they can kiss those states goodbye in the general election. And if Obama squeaks by in the delegate count and Hillary loses because MI/FL are deprived of their votes, it will not only kill Obama but tear apart the Democratic party.

noone is going to give a shit about that when the general election comes around. Except maybe you and a few other bitter partisans.

Sorry mike, but it's a major concern of the party. If they didn't seat the delegates, it would piss off enough dems/independents that it would risk giving the state to the Reps. Just the mere risk of losing florida isn't worth it. You can say only partisan hacks would care, but you'd be wrong. Most pundits/opinions I've read indicate they think it would be extremely unlikely for the DNC to give the middle finger to Florida democratic voters.

Here's Howard Dean:
http://www.mgwashington.com/in...rida-and-michigan/433/
There will be delegates?from Florida and Michigan

Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Looks like Democrats from Florida and Michigan may yet be wearing funny hats and waving signs in Denver.

Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean all but told Wolf Blitzer on CNN just now that at Florida and Michigan Democrats will be seated.the party?s national convention in Denver in August. The states were stripped of their convention delegates for jumping ahead of the Democrats? calendar for primaries and caucuses.

Dean was still cagey and refused to predict all will be well. But he did say the two states will ask for reinstatement, and it will be up to the credentials committee and the convention itself. ?At the end of the day we want a unified party, including Florida and Michigan,? Dean said.

He also said it was not in the party?s best interest to have a divided convention, as Democrats did in 1968, 1972 and 1980.

That ?resulted in losses each time,? he said.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481
here's my question... if Hillary pulls out a delegate win, will it give her momentum? or will the media paint it as a tie?

The delegate count is going to split fairly evenly.

Obama has won 14 states, Hillary has won 8.

Obama has proven he can win white voters, and women voters.

yeah, the only real hang-up I have about the Obama state wins are the states that a democrat really has no chance of carrying no matter what, even if it was Jesus himself running on the DNC ticket.

AK, AL, CT, CO, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, NM, MN, MO, ND, UT

Note I'm going with Wreckem but NM we have no idea about yet, just for the sake of argument.

Bolded are nearly absolutely unwinnable for Obama. I gave him chances in the south because of the black vote and McCain isn't well liked down there.

So that is 9 wins and 5 'cheap' wins. Still not something to scoff at. Also remember Obama's ability to fund raise and that those donors come from all states.

AK is Alaska. Which is winnable by a Dem in November.

NM will go Dem in November. Immigration will win it for them. Plus its been trending Dem the past three cyles.

AL, GA, and UT are the only completely unwinnable states. ND can be won by a Dem. There House Rep and both Senators are Dems.

LOL.. after posting this I knew I'd get corrected. Reds and blues are never carved in stone, though, and no matter how red Obama has real roots in Kansas and could probably compete there.

I thought AK was strongly Republican? Anyway my premise stands, he still won a bunch of Dem states.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: sirjonk

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: sirjonk
If Hillary doesn't finish off Obama tonite, and it for sure looks like that isn't going to happen, then she's gonna have problems down the stretch, as Obama seems to be out raising her 3 to 1, and his momentum is still growing. Still, she may maintain a delegate lead, MI/FL will likely be seated at the convention, so who the hell knows what's going to happen.

Yes, if they don't seat MI/FL than they can kiss those states goodbye in the general election. And if Obama squeaks by in the delegate count and Hillary loses because MI/FL are deprived of their votes, it will not only kill Obama but tear apart the Democratic party.

noone is going to give a shit about that when the general election comes around. Except maybe you and a few other bitter partisans.

Sorry mike, but it's a major concern of the party. If they didn't seat the delegates, it would piss off enough dems/independents that it would risk giving the state to the Reps. Just the mere risk of losing florida isn't worth it. You can say only partisan hacks would care, but you'd be wrong. Most pundits/opinions I've read indicate they think it would be extremely unlikely for the DNC to give the middle finger to Florida democratic voters.

Here's Howard Dean:
http://www.mgwashington.com/in...rida-and-michigan/433/
There will be delegates?from Florida and Michigan

Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Looks like Democrats from Florida and Michigan may yet be wearing funny hats and waving signs in Denver.

Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean all but told Wolf Blitzer on CNN just now that at Florida and Michigan Democrats will be seated.the party?s national convention in Denver in August. The states were stripped of their convention delegates for jumping ahead of the Democrats? calendar for primaries and caucuses.

Dean was still cagey and refused to predict all will be well. But he did say the two states will ask for reinstatement, and it will be up to the credentials committee and the convention itself. ?At the end of the day we want a unified party, including Florida and Michigan,? Dean said.

He also said it was not in the party?s best interest to have a divided convention, as Democrats did in 1968, 1972 and 1980.

That ?resulted in losses each time,? he said.

Simple. The DNC will seat a 50/50 split for both states.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481
here's my question... if Hillary pulls out a delegate win, will it give her momentum? or will the media paint it as a tie?

The delegate count is going to split fairly evenly.

Obama has won 14 states, Hillary has won 8.

Obama has proven he can win white voters, and women voters.

yeah, the only real hang-up I have about the Obama state wins are the states that a democrat really has no chance of carrying no matter what, even if it was Jesus himself running on the DNC ticket.

AK, AL, CT, CO, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, NM, MN, MO, ND, UT

Note I'm going with Wreckem but NM we have no idea about yet, just for the sake of argument.

Bolded are nearly absolutely unwinnable for Obama. I gave him chances in the south because of the black vote and McCain isn't well liked down there.

So that is 9 wins and 5 'cheap' wins. Still not something to scoff at. Also remember Obama's ability to fund raise and that those donors come from all states.

AK is Alaska. Which is winnable by a Dem in November.

NM will go Dem in November. Immigration will win it for them. Plus its been trending Dem the past three cyles.

AL, GA, and UT are the only completely unwinnable states. ND can be won by a Dem. There House Rep and both Senators are Dems.

LOL.. after posting this I knew I'd get corrected. Reds and blues are never carved in stone, though, and no matter how red Obama has real roots in Kansas and could probably compete there.

I thought AK was strongly Republican? Anyway my premise stands, he still won a bunch of Dem states.

Traditionally, yes but there has been a slight trend towards. AK really doesnt matter in the general election though.

 

[Farang]

One of my favorite parts of this race is seeing international reaction.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/

But the media reaction pisses me off sometimes, here and abroad. Clinton moves ahead? Cancels out early victories? Clinton was the one who had a bunch of early victories before Obama stacked up a bunch of mid and western states! It is completely untrue, both that and the claim that she won the night.

edit: and Yahoo! is outright lying with a headline that Clinton wins in Missouri on the front page. Unbelievable.

 

[Wreckem]

MSNBCs final estimates for delegates for the night is

Obama 841
Clinton 837


So overall Clinton has a narrow lead by ~80. All thanks to Super Delegates as Obama still leads amongst elected Democrats.

Obama has won the most states and has the most elected delegates.

Its hard to say Obama will lose momentum.

 

[Farang]

Ugh this is really unbelievable. Clinton loses the delegate race tonight, and loses Missouri.. but the biggest words on Yahoo's front page are "Clinton's huge victory" and "Clinton wins Missouri."