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Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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IEC said:
Allan Lichtman's 13 keys model says POTUS will be Harris.

Historically September and October are bad months. Perhaps we will see a short-term jump coinciding with rate cuts. I'm a bit leery of what happens afterwards.
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I set up a fond for each of my kids, and our fourth child is expected to arrive around September 10th 🙂
 
AdamK47 said:
Not until tech companies get everyone returned to the office.
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I personally haven't looked much, but anecdotally from people I've talked to on the subject that remote jobs are tough to come by. But the numbers drawing unemployment still remains very low which suggests there are still a lot of people in their pre-pandemic role and still WFH.

Kind of makes you wonder the people complaining on Reddit, etc, about not finding a job are only looking at remote jobs and striking out. Then their unemployment runs out.

If the DOJ is serious about going after nVidia... yeah that could crash the stock market.
 
Full time jobs that pay enough to cover the ever increasing costs of living are getting harder to come by now, and definitely remote ones are even more rare as most companies want people back in the office. It's also at a point where a minimum wage job is hardly worth it, because just the cost of going to the job, having clothes appropriate for it etc is higher than what you'll make. Also most of those are being taken up by immigrants now, as the government pays their salary.

Speaking of jobs, they just announced that unemployment rate up to 6.6% today.

financialpost.com

Canada’s unemployment rate rises to 6.6% in challenging market for job seekers

Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.6 per cent in August, with 1.5 million Canadians unemployed last month. Read more
financialpost.com financialpost.com

They dropped the interest rate though, so at least going into debt is a bit cheaper! 😛
 
Holy carp.... I just thought of something else...besides the market continuing to tank because it perceives a much larger slowdown than expected, Kamala's much needed tax hikes on corporations and individuals but crazy price control plan (see Nixon's WIN plan from the early 70s).... but now you have figure in something else..

Budget drama.

The debt limit was suspended until 1/1/2025. There is already grumblings if Kamala wins and its likely she will, the Republicans will refuse to raise the debt limit again. So after the sharp pull back that happens when a Democrat wins and only 60 days until another possible government shutdown, the lame duck Biden will be the only one to deal with Republican hold outs to increase our gargantuan national debt of $35T. 😱

I still see another 10 to 20% decline from here until next Feb or March 2025.
 
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Those of you that put politics as the major driver for the market (even with the election) will miss out by making moves based on your own biases.
 
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.75 isn't off the table yet. Since they're switching to prioritizing the labor market, it's probably not a bad idea to be more aggressive than they might otherwise choose. If it turns out in hindsight that it premature, just skip a couple of months. Absolutely NO ONE thinks this is going to be a one or 2 cut deal. THIS is the new trend so trying to swim against the current is not wise.
 
FelixDeCat said:
Holy carp.... I just thought of something else...besides the market continuing to tank because it perceives a much larger slowdown than expected, Kamala's much needed tax hikes on corporations and individuals but crazy price control plan (see Nixon's WIN plan from the early 70s).... but now you have figure in something else..

Budget drama.

The debt limit was suspended until 1/1/2025. There is already grumblings if Kamala wins and its likely she will, the Republicans will refuse to raise the debt limit again. So after the sharp pull back that happens when a Democrat wins and only 60 days until another possible government shutdown, the lame duck Biden will be the only one to deal with Republican hold outs to increase our gargantuan national debt of $35T. 😱

I still see another 10 to 20% decline from here until next Feb or March 2025.
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Anyone look at politicians trades before and after the debt ceiling 'negotiations'?
 
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