Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[dullard]

Crazy market today. Small cap madness.

Need more info. I haven't been watching too closely today. But the small cap funds that I did look at didn't move much. Seemed like some RoaringKitty madness though and a slight pullback in Crypto.

Today's Morningstar data is above showing no significant change in small caps. https://www.morningstar.com/

 

[FelixDeCat]

Need more info. I haven't been watching too closely today. But the small cap funds that I did look at didn't move much. Seemed like some RoaringKitty madness though and a slight pullback in Crypto.
View attachment 113811
Today's Morningstar data is above showing no significant change in small caps. https://www.morningstar.com/

Today Quantum stocks were hitting all time highs, including that flea-bitten LAES which I dumped at 6.40 went over 9.00:

(UMAC, RKLB and ZENA are not quantum)



Battery stocks were also on fire: (STI was circled by someone else its their watch list).

(I hold a position in ABAT which I will be selling tomorrow)



All these stocks are have a market cap under $1B to $10B.

Rigetti is on everyones watchlist for anyone who wants exposure to quantum. It, like everything else, is absurdly overvalued. Supposedly they have recently put together a working device with more computing units.

Because the sector has gone up hundreds of percent in the last few months, the pullbacks have been pretty violent, buyer beware.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Speaking of battery stocks, I traded this one earlier this year. Sold way too soon not understanding its potential:




On the day I noticed it, it was up on a government contract, rising from 40 cents to 1.4. I bought in the next day under 2 and sold for a small loss thinking it was an overpriced dog (I still think its an overpriced dog) that would be held back because it was already a $100M market cap and I did not think sales justified that price.

Had you bought the first day under $1.00 (and assuming you did not sell), you would be sitting on gains of 500% to 1000% in 30 days. Today the MC is over $1B !

I would love to buy puts on KULR but there are better opportunities out there than try to short the stock.

 

[Brainonska511]

Speaking of battery stocks, I traded this one earlier this year. Sold way too soon not understanding its potential:

View attachment 113941


On the day I noticed it, it was up on a government contract, rising from 40 cents to 1.4. I bought in the next day under 2 and sold for a small loss thinking it was an overpriced dog (I still think its an overpriced dog) that would be held back because it was already a $100M market cap and I did not think sales justified that price.

Had you bought the first day under $1.00 (and assuming you did not sell), you would be sitting on gains of 500% to 1000% in 30 days. Today the MC is over $1B !

I would love to buy puts on KULR but there are better opportunities out there than try to short the stock.

This whole post is a good example of why most people shouldn't buy and sell individual stocks (and why they should just stick with index funds). For most people, it's just a fancier form of gambling.

 

[FelixDeCat]

This whole post is a good example of why most people shouldn't buy and sell individual stocks (and why they should just stick with index funds). For most people, it's just a fancier form of gambling.

Yes, but it is interesting to note sector movements none-the-less. Battery technology stocks as a whole have been on fire along with Quantum this quarter. Spotting trends early and holding the best sometimes pays off or can lead to losses. You never know.

I remember the early AI boom of 2023, anything AI was on fire. I bought a stock one day for $3 and sold the EXACT same day for over $20. Total junk stock but man those gains....

 

[FelixDeCat]

And now for the 2025 thread:

Discussion - ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

2024 Thread: https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/official-2024-stock-market-thread-💰.2616677/ Here we go again...

forums.anandtech.com

 

[Brainonska511]

Yes, but it is interesting to note sector movements none-the-less. Battery technology stocks as a whole have been on fire along with Quantum this quarter. Spotting trends early and holding the best sometimes pays off or can lead to losses. You never know.

I remember the early AI boom of 2023, anything AI was on fire. I bought a stock one day for $3 and sold the EXACT same day for over $20. Total junk stock but man those gains....

Yes, gambling.

 

[Charmonium]

I think EVs are just a stop gap so we can get off the guzzlene. But hydrogen is a much better option. You can get a full tank in just minutes. EVs might get there with super-capacitors, but with hydrogen, you don't have a couple tons worth of batteries. No need for rare earth metals either. And while with EVs you still have pollution from the generation of electricity, hydrogen is completely clean.

The only problem with it is finding a way to split water molecules in a cost effective way. But I don't think we'll need to wait too long for that.

 

[repoman0]

And while with EVs you still have pollution from the generation of electricity, hydrogen is completely clean.

The only problem with it is finding a way to split water molecules in a cost effective way. But I don't think we'll need to wait too long for that.

yeah, powered by electricity generated in the exact same way as the electricity used to charge EVs, lol. Some blend of non-renewables and renewables, trending toward the latter over time hopefully.

 

[Brainonska511]

I think EVs are just a stop gap so we can get off the guzzlene. But hydrogen is a much better option. You can get a full tank in just minutes. EVs might get there with super-capacitors, but with hydrogen, you don't have a couple tons worth of batteries. No need for rare earth metals either. And while with EVs you still have pollution from the generation of electricity, hydrogen is completely clean.

The only problem with it is finding a way to split water molecules in a cost effective way. But I don't think we'll need to wait too long for that.

Most hydrogen is made from fossil fuels, and storage and delivery is a nontrivial problem.

Range issues and learning to charge for most people *should* be a non-issue. If you have any sort of off street parking with a plug nearby, you can get ~50 miles of charge overnight with a standard outlet, and if you install a 240V circuit, you can easily do double overnight: more than enough for almost anyone except supercommuters. For longer travel, stopping every 150-200 miles of driving for 10-20 minutes of charging shouldn't be a big deal.

The real way forward is to reduce car dependency overall. We can't physically keep cramming more and more personal automobiles into the places people want to live, and we can't just build more highways and other associated infrastructure because there physically isn't enough space.

 

[biostud]

I've been 100% passive and ended at 19,40%,with a variation between -1% to 23%, so overall a very good year.
My best performing index fund was US growth with 45% and my worst was Danish C25 with -1%.
Hopefully 2025 will be better for European stocks.

 

[Brainonska511]

Ending the year with a ~23.5% return per Vanguard's YTD performance chart, with a 10-year return of ~10.5%. The index fund–only portfolio continues to be a winner.

 

[FelixDeCat]

My "gambling" (trading) account had a very bad year. Started with 25k and went to near zero by mid November. 😞

Deposited money to bring it back up to $624. Then the Quantum and Battery revolution began and I came along for the ride!



In one month, I made $19,200, or 6,892%. That includes withdrawing $690.




Assuming this trajectory holds on a monthly basis, I should have more money than Elon Musk by next Christmas.

Or be totally broke again.
😆 🤣 😂


Edit..Future returns are unpredictable as every trade is different with different outcomes. There is no guarantee money will be made and the chance of loss is pretty high considering the volatile nature of some stocks. Investing long term in good companies is a better strategy than what I did here.

 

[brianmanahan]

up %18.1 for the year... not terrible

everything feels so expensive though

 

[biostud]

Ending the year with a ~23.5% return per Vanguard's YTD performance chart, with a 10-year return of ~10.5%. The index fund–only portfolio continues to be a winner.

I started in 2018, and I get a total of 72,6% since then, so similar to your 10,5%/year. (~11.5%/year)

 

[Indus]

Wrong thread