Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,892
5,777
136
Allan Lichtman's 13 keys model says POTUS will be Harris.

Historically September and October are bad months. Perhaps we will see a short-term jump coinciding with rate cuts. I'm a bit leery of what happens afterwards.
I set up a fond for each of my kids, and our fourth child is expected to arrive around September 10th :)
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,438
5,936
136
Not until tech companies get everyone returned to the office.

I personally haven't looked much, but anecdotally from people I've talked to on the subject that remote jobs are tough to come by. But the numbers drawing unemployment still remains very low which suggests there are still a lot of people in their pre-pandemic role and still WFH.

Kind of makes you wonder the people complaining on Reddit, etc, about not finding a job are only looking at remote jobs and striking out. Then their unemployment runs out.

If the DOJ is serious about going after nVidia... yeah that could crash the stock market.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,948
12,856
126
www.anyf.ca
Full time jobs that pay enough to cover the ever increasing costs of living are getting harder to come by now, and definitely remote ones are even more rare as most companies want people back in the office. It's also at a point where a minimum wage job is hardly worth it, because just the cost of going to the job, having clothes appropriate for it etc is higher than what you'll make. Also most of those are being taken up by immigrants now, as the government pays their salary.

Speaking of jobs, they just announced that unemployment rate up to 6.6% today.


They dropped the interest rate though, so at least going into debt is a bit cheaper! :p
 
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biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,892
5,777
136
Our mortgage is going down from 4% to 3% in 2025, saving us ~$70 after taxes each month.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,883
2,378
126
Holy carp.... I just thought of something else...besides the market continuing to tank because it perceives a much larger slowdown than expected, Kamala's much needed tax hikes on corporations and individuals but crazy price control plan (see Nixon's WIN plan from the early 70s).... but now you have figure in something else..

Budget drama.

The debt limit was suspended until 1/1/2025. There is already grumblings if Kamala wins and its likely she will, the Republicans will refuse to raise the debt limit again. So after the sharp pull back that happens when a Democrat wins and only 60 days until another possible government shutdown, the lame duck Biden will be the only one to deal with Republican hold outs to increase our gargantuan national debt of $35T. :eek:

I still see another 10 to 20% decline from here until next Feb or March 2025.
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,637
3,422
136
Those of you that put politics as the major driver for the market (even with the election) will miss out by making moves based on your own biases.
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,637
3,422
136
Investors are betting on a 50 basis point rate cut. Pricing it in.

I think we'll get 25 points and there will be pullback.
 
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Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,114
3,229
136
.75 isn't off the table yet. Since they're switching to prioritizing the labor market, it's probably not a bad idea to be more aggressive than they might otherwise choose. If it turns out in hindsight that it premature, just skip a couple of months. Absolutely NO ONE thinks this is going to be a one or 2 cut deal. THIS is the new trend so trying to swim against the current is not wise.
 

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,114
3,229
136
It seems that demand for Apple's new product cycle might be kinda 'squishy.' Nobody likes squishy. Well jelly donuts i guess.
 

bookem dano

Senior member
Oct 19, 1999
247
9
81
Holy carp.... I just thought of something else...besides the market continuing to tank because it perceives a much larger slowdown than expected, Kamala's much needed tax hikes on corporations and individuals but crazy price control plan (see Nixon's WIN plan from the early 70s).... but now you have figure in something else..

Budget drama.

The debt limit was suspended until 1/1/2025. There is already grumblings if Kamala wins and its likely she will, the Republicans will refuse to raise the debt limit again. So after the sharp pull back that happens when a Democrat wins and only 60 days until another possible government shutdown, the lame duck Biden will be the only one to deal with Republican hold outs to increase our gargantuan national debt of $35T. :eek:

I still see another 10 to 20% decline from here until next Feb or March 2025.
Anyone look at politicians trades before and after the debt ceiling 'negotiations'?
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,883
2,378
126
There is no reason to rush rate cuts. None. But then I argue for none at all. People always want a free lunch.