Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[biostud]

I hear that Victoria Gold is cheap right now.

I have three index funds that my other kids have, so I'll buy the same for the next one.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I hear that Victoria Gold is cheap right now.

Bankruptcy special deal!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Whole market is has been in sell-off mode lately.

Eeeeexellent..

 

[Red Squirrel]

Not exactly stock related but one of the mines here is having some unusual movement. Kinda reminds me of the Victoria Gold incident but not remotely as bad.

Movement in wall is why closure of lookout at Hollinger Pit is ongoing, work halted - My Timmins Now

We now know why the Hollinger Open Pit lookout remains closed at the height of the visitor season in Timmins. Newmont Porcupine external relations manager Gerry Stinson says increased movement […]

www.mytimminsnow.com

Going to delay operations for a bit though.

 

[FelixDeCat]

100 shares SERV at 15.00

 

[FelixDeCat]

100 SAVA 14.50

 

[AdamK47]

Futures up bigingly hugely right now.

Watch the short sellers deflate the market after the open.

 

[biostud]

Futures up bigingly hugely right now.

Watch the short sellers deflate the market after the open.

There are ups and downs, but in the long run the trend is always upwards.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Beautiful day! 😀

 

[FelixDeCat]

100 SAVA 14.50

Traded for calls, now 22.00

 

[FelixDeCat]

Fed hinting at rate cuts. 😞

 

[biostud]

Fed hinting at rate cuts. 😞

Obviously as the inflation is going down.

 

[dullard]

Fed hinting at rate cuts. 😞

The fed said on Dec 13, 2023 that they are projecting three cuts in 2024 (number of cuts, amount of cuts, and timing of cuts would vary with additional data of course). This recent hint of cuts shouldn't come as any surprise to anyone. The early 2024 data was all too strong for early 2024 cuts or to go with more than three cuts. So, of course the likely outcome would be up to three cuts back loaded at the end of 2024.

There are three Federal Open Market Committee meetings left in 2024. They probably won't do all three cuts in a row--it'll likely be spread out a bit more into early to mid 2025. But, you should have been well prepared for this to happen at the end of 2024.

In preparation, I locked in a 13 month 5.2% CD earlier this week. This was with money that I needed shorter-term so stocks weren't a wise choice for it.

 

[AdamK47]

Fed hinting at rate cuts. 😞

I forgot about the fed meeting today.

 

[Red Squirrel]

We need higher rates, the high inflation from previous years doesn't just disappear. We're still suffering from it now.

 

[Brainonska511]

We need higher rates, the high inflation from previous years doesn't just disappear. We're still suffering from it now.

So that we can trigger a big recession, have unemployment spike, and wages become depressed? I'm sure that will ease the suffering.

 

[Red Squirrel]

So that we can trigger a big recession, have unemployment spike, and wages become depressed? I'm sure that will ease the suffering.

If steps were taken to reduce inflation or even create deflation, it which in turn would cause costs of everything were to go down why would it cause unemployment? If anything it could reduce unemployment as companies would perhaps slow down on layoffs and cut backs and people would also have more money to spend so the economy would get a boost.

 

[Brainonska511]

If steps were taken to reduce inflation or even create deflation, it which in turn would cause costs of everything were to go down why would it cause unemployment? If anything it could reduce unemployment as companies would perhaps slow down on layoffs and cut backs and people would also have more money to spend so the economy would get a boost.

Inflation is already down, so why do we need more steps to reduce it? In the US, most people's wages have kept up or exceeded inflation, particularly at the bottom of the economic ladder. If you're feeling squeezed because your wages aren't keeping up, perhaps you need to go out and get your bag in the form of another job.

Deflation is bad because people will stop spending money: you know, the activity that drives our economies. Deflation also means falling prices, which means companies will be squeezed - so they'll have to cut costs to compensate, which means lower salaries or slashing employment.

 

[AdamK47]

Will there be a recession? Are we in a recession? Is there a recession? What is recession? Who is recession?

I have so many questions.

 

[IronWing]

Will there be a recession? Are we in a recession? Is there a recession? What is recession? Who is recession?

I have so many questions.

Of course not. We are in an election year so the party out of power will talk down the economy at every opportunity. Sometimes, 2000 for example, the politically motivated yammering triggers an actual recession by reducing consumer confidence.

 

[dullard]

If steps were taken to reduce inflation or even create deflation, it which in turn would cause costs of everything were to go down why would it cause unemployment? If anything it could reduce unemployment as companies would perhaps slow down on layoffs and cut backs and people would also have more money to spend so the economy would get a boost.

Have you studied any economics at all? Virtually all incidences of deflation come with large amounts of unemployment. This has happened repeatedly throughout history in many countries.

Why? Think about owning a business. Deflation hits. People are buying less and less of your products (since the longer they wait to buy the cheaper they can get their stuff). Your competitors are all lowering their prices. In order to remain competitive, you must also lower prices. You are stuck with a dual blow of fewer sales and the sales you have are at lower prices. What do you do to attempt to retain profits and/or stay in business? Most of the time the answer is layoffs (which works well for your business as you are selling less and thus have less work to do). You could attempt to cut salaries, but usually that just ends with people quitting. Either way you look at it, you have fewer people employed at your business.

Then that cycle perpetuates. Fewer people working at your business (and those of your competitors) means less demand for goods and services. Less demand means lower sales and lower prices. Which means even more layoffs.

 

[AdamK47]

Of course not. We are in an election year so the party out of power will talk down the economy at every opportunity. Sometimes, 2000 for example, the politically motivated yammering triggers an actual recession by reducing consumer confidence.

US jobless claims accelerating quickly. Shows weakness in the economy. Market did a 180 on the news. VIX jumped 11% in just one hour.

 

[Brainonska511]

US jobless claims accelerating quickly. Shows weakness in the economy. Market did a 180 on the news. VIX jumped 11% in just one hour.

GDP is still up, unemployment is still at historic lows, job growth has continued.

You can't decide there is a recession with a single blip of data.

 

[IronWing]

On the other hand, my leading indicator for recessions is flashing. I use the condition of gas pumps to predict recessions. More out of order pumps are a harbinger of recessions. Gas stations are currently cutting back on maintenance of their pumps so a recession may be coming.

 

[repoman0]

Good thing the fed waited all this time to cut rates, risking a recession after grinding the housing market to a halt for the past 18 months.

At least the 10 year is way down on just their comments which will provide some relief before the actual cuts happen.