Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[IEC]

Lol the root cause of the BSOD is such amateur hour. The c-00000291-*.sys boot-start driver that has to load before Windows can boot was shipped as ALL NULL. For over an hour. To prod. Which caused a null pointer dereference to crash Windows with a BSOD.

 

[jpiniero]

Lol the root cause of the BSOD is such amateur hour. The c-00000291-*.sys boot-start driver that has to load before Windows can boot was shipped as ALL NULL. For over an hour. To prod. Which caused a null pointer dereference to crash Windows with a BSOD.

That really shouldn't cause a BSOD.

 

[IEC]

That really shouldn't cause a BSOD.

Supposedly it is programmed in C++. It's admittedly been years since I touched anything in C++, but I remember well enough the less-than-graceful crashes if you weren't thorough about input and error handling.

CrowdStrike chaos: The null pointer is to blame

Following the IT outage caused by a faulty CrowdStrike update, initial analyses of the memory error reveal a fundamental failure on the part of CrowdStrike.

www.heise.de

 

[Red Squirrel]

That really shouldn't cause a BSOD.

Guessing because of the fact that it's AV software it probably interacts deeper at the system level. We had a similar issue at work with CyberArmor and PGP. If you install both of those on the same system, CyberArmor would basically go haywire and render the whole system unusable as it would refuse to allow even system files to load. I think it was detecting PGP as a threat, since that program probably also had hooks into the system, for allowing to decrypt files etc.

But yeah a NullPointerException is such as amateur mistake it's crazy that made it into prod.

 

[FelixDeCat]

With Biden pulling out of the race, that introduces uncertainty. Monday will be interesting.

 

[AdamK47]

With Biden pulling out of the race, that introduces uncertainty. Monday will be interesting.

The odds of Biden winning was poor. A sports betting site (because people bet on everything) had these odds yesterday.

Biden was 9/2 to be elected as President on Wednesday morning but has since ballooned out to 7/1, while his price of 1/4 to be the Democratic nominee has flown out to 5/4.

Harris has conversely come into 9/2 for presidency from 12/1 on Wednesday, with a stab at being the Democratic nominee looking increasingly likely at 11/10 – in from 9/2.

PRESS RELEASE: Kamala Harris now favourite over Joe Biden to be Democrat nominee

Harris 9/2 from 12/1 to win election; Biden out to 7/1 from 9/2 Biden was 9/2 to be elected as President on Wednesday morning but has since ballooned out to 7/1, while his price of 1/4 to be the Democratic nominee has flown out to 5/4. Harris has conversely come into 9/2 for presidency from 12

www.starsportsbet.co.uk

 

[AdamK47]

Tesla down over 7% in after market. Google down 2%. Futures down.

 

[jpiniero]

Americans Need A Six-figure Salary To Afford A Typical Home In Nearly Half Of U.S. States | Bankrate

The salary Americans need to afford a typical home has increased across the country, a new Bankrate study found.

www.bankrate.com

Article is from April, but it's crazy looking at the median housing sales price across the country. Esp states you can't imagine there are that many high paying jobs.

 

[Charmonium]

Consumer spending seems to have slowed. And since more than 60% of the US economy is consumer spending, that's not great news. So a Sept. Fed rate cut will be more than welcome. That's exactly how it's supposed to work - as the economy slows, make money cheaper to stimulate the economy.

This might be the first time in our history that we end up with a relatively flat business cycle - as opposed to the wild swings we've seen throughout history.

According to the Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS), active listings have been on a pretty well defined upward trend since 2022, but apparently that hasn't been sufficient to meet demand. I think builders have been much more cautious than in the past but such high prices should stimulate more production. But we probably won't see any sharp increase.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Consumer spending seems to have slowed. And since more than 60% of the US economy is consumer spending, that's not great news. So a Sept. Fed rate cut will be more than welcome. That's exactly how it's supposed to work - as the economy slows, make money cheaper to stimulate the economy.

This might be the first time in our history that we end up with a relatively flat business cycle - as opposed to the wild swings we've seen throughout history.

According to the Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS), active listings have been on a pretty well defined upward trend since 2022, but apparently that hasn't been sufficient to meet demand. I think builders have been much more cautious than in the past but such high prices should stimulate more production. But we probably won't see any sharp increase.

Market has had a nice pullback since hitting its highs.

 

[IEC]

Consumer spending seems to have slowed. And since more than 60% of the US economy is consumer spending, that's not great news. So a Sept. Fed rate cut will be more than welcome. That's exactly how it's supposed to work - as the economy slows, make money cheaper to stimulate the economy.

This might be the first time in our history that we end up with a relatively flat business cycle - as opposed to the wild swings we've seen throughout history.

According to the Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS), active listings have been on a pretty well defined upward trend since 2022, but apparently that hasn't been sufficient to meet demand. I think builders have been much more cautious than in the past but such high prices should stimulate more production. But we probably won't see any sharp increase.

All real estate is local. YMMV.

Austin TX MSA is a good example. 12,000 existing homes for sale (50% above pre-pandemic norms) and 8000+ new construction homes for sale. Not to mention nearly 10% vacancy in multi-family. Inventory is sky high and prices are dropping. But they need to drop further to be affordable to locals.

 

[JTsyo]

Tesla down 10% now. Guess that's what happens when you profits drop by 45%.

 

[FelixDeCat]

All real estate is local. YMMV.

Austin TX MSA is a good example. 12,000 existing homes for sale (50% above pre-pandemic norms) and 8000+ new construction homes for sale. Not to mention nearly 10% vacancy in multi-family. Inventory is sky high and prices are dropping. But they need to drop further to be affordable to locals.

I have lived in DFW all my life. Until about 2018/9 you could still buy a relatively affordable place. Then our RE became "California'd". Ridiculous prices for lots of homes. They are pulling back somewhat but incomes in this area primarily support prices under 300k and they are above that price generally on average.

I've worked in banking since dinosaurs roamed the Earth so when I started you could get a nice starter home for 100k or under.

Earlier this year I saw a deal in Texas. The empty lot alone on a few a acres by a river was roughly in the $19,000,000 range.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Time to cover all short term short positions?

 

[thestrangebrew1]

IDK if I should start a new thread or what but say I wanted to start investing in some long-term (say like 10 years) things for my daughter if I don't have a lot to start off with, should I just open a high yield savings account and start putting what I can afford into it, or is bonds or some other item I should start with? I'm late to the game with stashing $ for my daughter but I guess starting somewhere is better than not doing anything.

 

[Chapbass]

IDK if I should start a new thread or what but say I wanted to start investing in some long-term (say like 10 years) things for my daughter if I don't have a lot to start off with, should I just open a high yield savings account and start putting what I can afford into it, or is bonds or some other item I should start with? I'm late to the game with stashing $ for my daughter but I guess starting somewhere is better than not doing anything.

How old is she and what would you anticipate the funds being used for? If schooling, a 529 is a great option.

 

[Brainonska511]

IDK if I should start a new thread or what but say I wanted to start investing in some long-term (say like 10 years) things for my daughter if I don't have a lot to start off with, should I just open a high yield savings account and start putting what I can afford into it, or is bonds or some other item I should start with? I'm late to the game with stashing $ for my daughter but I guess starting somewhere is better than not doing anything.

What is the ultimate goal for the money? Give it to her for school? Some other early nest egg?

If it's for school, a 529 is probably a good approach. If it's more general, look into a UGMA/UTMA account. In either one, given the time horizon, you could probably shoot for a 90/10 split between a total market index fund and a bond fund (maybe a little less aggressive if it's for use in less than 10 years).

 

[dullard]

IDK if I should start a new thread or what but say I wanted to start investing in some long-term (say like 10 years) things for my daughter if I don't have a lot to start off with, should I just open a high yield savings account and start putting what I can afford into it, or is bonds or some other item I should start with? I'm late to the game with stashing $ for my daughter but I guess starting somewhere is better than not doing anything.

Like others have said, a 529 is often the best option for children. The 529 plan lets the money grow tax free and in many states you get a state income tax deduction for contributions to it. State income tax rates aren't generally very high, but any amount helps. Also, most 529 plans are set up to accept small payments--you can contribute whenever you have some spare cash. Even friends and relatives can put in a small amount at any time (say as part of a birthday present). Fees also tend to be relatively low (depending on the investment you choose of course). The catch is that the money can only be withdrawn tax-free and penalty-free if it is somehow related to school (college, trade-school, private school, books, computer, whatever that is related to school). A 529 is a state plan, so all states have different rules. You'll have to look up your state's benefits / requirements.

Heck, even if you had a very short timeframe (Say to pay for school this year), a 529 plan could be great. Suppose you needed to pay for school now and suppose your state lets you deduct state income taxes on 529 contributions. Put money in now, save your state income tax, and have her withdraw it immediately for the win.

Next, if your child has income, then a Roth IRA is a great option. Children usually are in low tax brackets, so paying tax now (with a Roth IRA) means that the child is almost guaranteed to have a higher income tax bracket in retirement. I know that I'd much rather pay all my taxes in a 0% or near 0% bracket.

If there is no school plan and no income, then consider an IRA for the child.

What you invest in depends on the timeline for the money. Unless the child needs it right away, I would highly suggest a mutual fund that tracks the S&P500 or similar. That is because if the child needs money in the far future, stocks have never lost money over multiple decades and will likely do far better than any other investment option. Your 10-year plan is a difficult one to prepare for. Since stocks have lost money over a 10-year period. But, I would still probably go that route.

 

[IronWing]

Victoria Gold tanked. Guessing it's related to this news:

UPDATE: Victoria Gold confirms heap leach pad failure and damage to mine infrastructure

Company says no one was injured in landslide. Some material from heap leach pad "left containment"

www.yukon-news.com

I bought in at around $16 a few years ago... Doh. I have lot of money in there too, several grand. It dropped a while back and I was waiting to see if it recovers but guess it will be a while now. I've been working towards getting out of individual stocks actually but was not in a position to sell.

View attachment 101917

"Over two-thirds of today’s junior miners are essentially worthless, says resource speculator Rick Rule."

https://www.mining.com/video-junior-market-dominated-by-the-lame-the-halt-and-the-blind-says-rule/

 

[thestrangebrew1]

I don't know how to multi-quote (lol) but she's 14 and originally I was thinking it was probably too late to start a school fund, but it sounds like a 529 could be an option. Even if it's just for books, supplies or to help cover a portion of tuition it'd help. I'll have to look into a 529 in CA and see how that works. Appreciate the info everyone!

 

[AdamK47]

Futures swinging back and forth. It's going to be another wild day.

 

[AdamK47]

Nvidia was down 7% at around 10:15 and then up 1% at 10:55.

I'd say there is some volatility in the market today.

 

[JTsyo]

Ford taking a beating today. For the new EVs they better learn how to make them without having to constantly issue recalls.

 

[biostud]

I'm still planning on doing an investment in September for my fourth child, so a little setback before a recovery wouldn't be to bad.

 

[IronWing]

I'm still planning on doing an investment in September for my fourth child, so a little setback before a recovery wouldn't be to bad.

I hear that Victoria Gold is cheap right now.