Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[IronWing]

Setting marginal rates is a joke with all the loopholes. We need a consumption tax and cut government spending by 50%.

Close the loopholes.

 

[dullard]

Setting marginal rates is a joke with all the loopholes. We need a consumption tax and cut government spending by 50%.

The two bolded portions of your quote are not compatible.

Consumption tax is basically one giant loophole. The wealthy end up paying nearly 0% of their income/wealth towards consumption tax. (1) They don't spend much of their income/wealth so the tax that could be paid is already small in comparison. (2) They can easily buy most stuff abroad so it would likely have no consumption tax--and almost no one ever pays use taxes even if required. (3) The things they do buy here that have any significant value historically have almost always been excluded from consumption taxes--housing, property including commercial/industrial real estate, stocks/bonds, collectables like art, much gold/silver (as long as it isn't in jewelry format), etc.

 

[AdamK47]

Besides housing, US inflation is going down and also a good explanation why you really don't want deflation in the end of the video (lots of colorful language in the video)

Is this guy ever positive or happy?

 

[biostud]

Is this guy ever positive or happy?

Not about the fed or the fear mongering youtubers, but if you listen to his positions about how the stock market is going and that you should keep doing sound investments then he is very positive.

I like him, although it can be a bit repetetive sometimes

 

[AdamK47]

The embiggening of the market is proceeding in a perfectly cromulent manner.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The two bolded portions of your quote are not compatible.

Consumption tax is basically one giant loophole. The wealthy end up paying nearly 0% of their income/wealth towards consumption tax. (1) They don't spend much of their income/wealth so the tax that could be paid is already small in comparison. (2) They can easily buy most stuff abroad so it would likely have no consumption tax--and almost no one ever pays use taxes even if required. (3) The things they do buy here that have any significant value historically have almost always been excluded from consumption taxes--housing, property including commercial/industrial real estate, stocks/bonds, collectables like art, much gold/silver (as long as it isn't in jewelry format), etc.

Then we can have a Federal Sales Tax on all "luxury" items such as paintings/sculptures valued over $250,000, new and used cars priced over $125,000 and homes over $5,000,000. Lets say 10% luxury tax.

 

[dullard]

Then we can have a Federal Sales Tax on all "luxury" items such as paintings/sculptures valued over $250,000, new and used cars priced over $125,000 and homes over $5,000,000. Lets say 10% luxury tax.

The problem is that has been tried and was an example of a disaster of tax policy touted in all of my economics textbooks. Just a tiny 10% sales tax decimated the US boat/yacht industry. Here is a quick summary:

The Day the U.S. Cruiser Industry was Murdered | BoatTEST

boattest.com

On November 5, 1990, the U.S. Congress took careful aim at the boating industry with a 10% luxury tax on new boats costing more than $100k and fired. Before the law was repealed more than two and a half years later, no fewer than eight major builders had gone out of business. The rest were on life support. By 1999, at least six more had thrown in the towel. The whole category of the business was so weakened that in the years to follow, at least nine more builders of large boats died a merciful death.

In August of 1993, the tax was rescinded.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The problem is that has been tried and was an example of a disaster of tax policy touted in all of my economics textbooks. Just a tiny 10% sales tax decimated the US boat/yacht industry. Here is a quick summary:

The Day the U.S. Cruiser Industry was Murdered | BoatTEST

boattest.com

I remember the early attempts at a luxury in the early 90s and how it caused problems for some back then.

But times are different and I think it's time to try again. Trust me, the art market, Ferrari /Lamborghini market and luxury mansion markets are resilliant and will survive despite rich people people bitching about it.

We live in a time now where practically everyone is a millionaire or multi millionaire so let them pay.

 

[dullard]

We live in a time now where practically everyone is a millionaire or multi millionaire so let them pay.

That is where property/wealth/death taxes come in to play. Those types of taxes make the millionaires pay. Sales taxes do not.

Say something like a 1%/year tax on art / vehicles / yachts over $250k and homes over $5 million.

 

[Brainonska511]

I remember the early attempts at a luxury in the early 90s and how it caused problems for some back then.

But times are different and I think it's time to try again. Trust me, the art market, Ferrari /Lamborghini market and luxury mansion markets are resilliant and will survive despite rich people people bitching about it.

We live in a time now where practically everyone is a millionaire or multi millionaire so let them pay.

You are literally the Arrested Development "didn't work for them/it could work for us" meme.

And why should anyone trust you? You clearly have some of the worst ideas when it comes to taxes and monetary policy.

 

[FelixDeCat]

That is where property/wealth/death taxes come in to play. Those types of taxes make the millionaires pay. Sales taxes do not.

Say something like a 1%/year tax on art / vehicles / yachts over $250k and homes over $5 million.

I hear you and I'm not trying to quibble too much. But you do know the estate tax is literally the easiest tax to beat of all, correct?

Any plain vanilla run of the mill trust will do.

So yeah, the estate tax is another pretend tax rich people point to when arguing they pay...but don't.

Taxing them on purchases is the only way to insure we collect.

 

[Brainonska511]

I hear you and I'm not trying to quibble too much. But you do know the estate tax is literally the easiest tax to beat of all, correct?

Any plain vanilla run of the mill trust will do.

So yeah, the estate tax is another pretend tax rich people point to when arguing they pay...but don't.

Taxing them on purchases is the only way to insure we collect.

We could close estate tax loopholes (and the stepped-up basis of assets upon death) anytime we got the political will to do so. Some people just love to play interference though for extremely rich people.

 

[jpiniero]

Housing def seems like it's ready to go to the moon some more*. Must be rate cut hype.



* May not be valid in some areas.

 

[Charmonium]

Housing def seems like it's ready to go to the moon some more*. Must be rate cut hype.



* May not be valid in some areas.

I don't think it's hype. A few months ago the fed cut back dramatically on asset sales (which takes money out of system and increases interest rates). So I would say there's an 80-90% chance of a cut in fed funds in September.

 

[Brainonska511]

Housing def seems like it's ready to go to the moon some more*. Must be rate cut hype.



* May not be valid in some areas.

Housing will continue to go to the moon until we dramatically build more. This is a supply problem - giving people more money for the demand side isn't going to fix it.

Though, rate cuts could potentially help some builders out.

 

[jpiniero]

I don't think it's hype. A few months ago the fed cut back dramatically on asset sales (which takes money out of system and increases interest rates). So I would say there's an 80-90% chance of a cut in fed funds in September.

That's what the odds are saying. But I'll believe it when I see it. Esp when unemployment is still within range.

 

[Charmonium]

@jpiniero - being slithery is part of the job description. Hahaha

 

[dullard]

The Trump / Biden duo started poking at the the tech bubble today. Biden mulling over stricter China sanctions and semiconductor trade restrictions. Trump implying that he wouldn't defend Taiwan from China. Net result, massive stock losses for some companies that are highly reliant on TSMC. Worst hit seems to be ASML (-12.7%) followed by Applied Materials (-10.5%), AMD (-10.2%), and ARM (-9.4%).

Question: is this a one time letting a bit of air out of the bubble? Or is it the start of a pop?

 

[JTsyo]

The Trump / Biden duo started poking at the the tech bubble today. Biden mulling over stricter China sanctions and semiconductor trade restrictions. Trump implying that he wouldn't defend Taiwan from China. Net result, massive stock losses for some companies that are highly reliant on TSMC. Worst hit seems to be ASML (-12.7%) followed by Applied Materials (-10.5%), AMD (-10.2%), and ARM (-9.4%).

Question: is this a one time letting a bit of air out of the bubble? Or is it the start of a pop?

This is more of a reaction to politics rather than economics. I think the pop would come after people realize AI isn't the General AI that they had in their minds and there's limitations on what generative AI can do for profits.

 

[jpiniero]

This is more of a reaction to politics rather than economics.

I remember reading some analysis that most of TSMC's fabs are near likely landing spots by Chinese troops in the event of an invasion by sea.

Given that pretty much every tech product not made by Intel is made by TSMC, and everything is assembled in China... you can see pretty easily how any hot war could get very ugly fast. That doesn't mean that is guaranteed to happen but it's a real risk.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I am long SQQQ looking for more rotation away from big tech and "profit taking".

 

[Red Squirrel]

Not looking good for Victoria Gold. They have a LOT of work to do before they can even resume mining.. if they even do that. There's a chance production never resumes.

Victoria Gold Corp. | Victoria Gold: Update on Eagle Gold Mine

Victoria Gold (VGCX) is Leading Yukons New Gold Rush

vgcx.com

Stocks down to penny stock status now. 77 cents.

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ might retest 469, currently 479

 

[FelixDeCat]

Hawaiian Electric skyrockets on wildfire settlement to $18

 

[AdamK47]

CrowdStrike down only 11%. I expected more. This company is going to be sued into oblivion.