Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Could be another 50% fall from here.

 

[ultimatebob]

Could be another 50% fall from here.

Honestly, I expect a lot of companies to post good Q1 earnings next week, and then things start going back up.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Honestly, I expect a lot of companies to post good Q1 earnings next week, and then things start going back up.

Except that the majority of companies have already reported.

 

[brianmanahan]

 

[jpiniero]

Have to say that Friday surprised me. I thought they were done selling until the Fed decision.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Nope.

 

[AdamK47]

Bought a bunch of ETFs in the very last few minutes of regular trading on Friday. Not going to sell anytime soon. We'll see how things pan out over the coming months.

 

[Brainonska511]

Announced today: Series I savings bond rate for the next 6 months is 9.62%

 

[dullard]

Announced today: Series I savings bond rate for the next 6 months is 9.62%

I haven't researched details of individual bonds much. Is a Series I a floating interest rate? Meaning that someone would sign up at 9.62% and then it can rise or fall over the next 30 years? So, if inflation somehow stopped, we'd be trapped into a bad bond for 30 years or have to sell at a bad time to sell bonds? Of course, that is a big "if".

 

[repoman0]

I haven't researched details of individual bonds much. Is a Series I a floating interest rate? Meaning that someone would sign up at 9.62% and then it can rise or fall over the next 30 years? So, if inflation somehow stopped, we'd be trapped into a bad bond for 30 years or have to sell at a bad time to sell bonds? Of course, that is a big "if".

The terms are far more forgiving than that. Have to hold for a year, penalty for selling early (before five years) is forfeiting the final three months of interest. Exempt from state taxes but counted as income on federal, either paid annually or deferred until redemption. It’s a decent deal but not amazing especially for higher tax brackets. $10k per year per SSN is kind of limiting too.

 

[jpiniero]

I haven't researched details of individual bonds much. Is a Series I a floating interest rate? Meaning that someone would sign up at 9.62% and then it can rise or fall over the next 30 years? So, if inflation somehow stopped, we'd be trapped into a bad bond for 30 years or have to sell at a bad time to sell bonds? Of course, that is a big "if".

• The interest is compounded semiannually. Every six months from the bond's issue date, interest the bond earned in the six previous months is added to the bond's principal value, creating a new principal value. Interest is then earned on the new principal.
• You can cash the bond after 12 months. However, if you cash the bond before it is five years old, you lose the last three months of interest. Note: If you use TreasuryDirect or the Savings Bond Calculator to find the value of a bond less than five years old, the value displayed reflects the three-month penalty; that is, the amount of the penalty has been subtracted already.

 

[Brainonska511]

The terms are far more forgiving than that. Have to hold for a year, penalty for selling early (before five years) is forfeiting the final three months of interest. Exempt from state taxes but counted as income on federal, either paid annually or deferred until redemption. It’s a decent deal but not amazing especially for higher tax brackets. $10k per year per SSN is kind of limiting too.

It's good if you were thinking of putting money into a short term CD, or just have some cash lying around that you don't want to invest but don't need for at least a year. Even with the 3 month interest penalty for early redemption, it's still a better deal than any CD or savings account. That's how I'm viewing my own holding at the moment.

I'd also note the variable rate is only for 6 months, and you only get the current rate for 6 months. So if inflation goes back down, the rate will fall as well.

 

[repoman0]

It's good if you were thinking of putting money into a short term CD, or just have some cash lying around that you don't want to invest but don't need for at least a year. Even with the 3 month interest penalty for early redemption, it's still a better deal than any CD or savings account. That's how I'm viewing my own holding at the moment.

I'd also note the variable rate is only for 6 months, and you only get the current rate for 6 months. So if inflation goes back down, the rate will fall as well.

Don’t get me wrong, I already threw my $20k in for the year. Sure beats my usual semi-weekly market buy ins that do nothing but lose lots of money. Hopefully eventually I’m thanking myself for buying in all the way down.

 

[jpiniero]

Odds still heavily favor double-triple-double hikes. That would be 2-2.25 in July. The odds will definitely change after the meeting so stay tuned.

For comparison, it got to 2.25-2.5 before Trump finally got his wish to cut rates and continue pumping after stocks slid.

 

[PlanetJosh]

On Cnbc cable news today an analyst who correctly predicted a number of bear and bull runs from Feb 2020, 2021 and 2022 said the markets will probably have a bull run of 7-10% in May. He said it's only a short term prediction just for May and after that things could turn bearish.

Can't find a link for him and didn't catch his name when watching it. He says the reason for a May bull rally is he thinks the Fed will use softer language Tues and Wed. I know these kinds of predictions can be a dime a dozen. But his track record for two years is good.

The main reason I tend to believe him is because I want to get out of this rut I'm in with Nvidia (NVDA). It's not doing so well after I bought a ton of it at $201 a share some days ago.

 

[KB]

Odds still heavily favor double-triple-double hikes. That would be 2-2.25 in July. The odds will definitely change after the meeting so stay tuned.

For comparison, it got to 2.25-2.5 before Trump finally got his wish to cut rates and continue pumping after stocks slid.

The market has priced in several 50 point hikes and [perhaps one 75 hike. Since we are already seeing demand destruction and a lower GDP from only a 25 point rise, I don't think we see many more hikes than what the market has planned. I see 2% FFR as the limit

 

[jpiniero]

The market has priced in several 50 point hikes and [perhaps one 75 hike. Since we are already seeing demand destruction and a lower GDP from only a 25 point rise, I don't think we see many more hikes than what the market has planned. I see 2% FFR as the limit

It's not about inflation, it's about killing the so called "Great Resignation"... forcing people back into the office, etc. I don't know how high it would need to go to make that happen but 2% doesn't seem like anywhere near enough. I think we will find out tomorrow if they are going to go through with this. Rates will probably not stay moderate for that long though, just long enough.

Also the GDP loss might have been more from the Russia ban.

 

[JTsyo]

I haven't researched details of individual bonds much. Is a Series I a floating interest rate? Meaning that someone would sign up at 9.62% and then it can rise or fall over the next 30 years? So, if inflation somehow stopped, we'd be trapped into a bad bond for 30 years or have to sell at a bad time to sell bonds? Of course, that is a big "if".

I looked into these a few weeks back. The interest rate for this is made from 2 parts. A fixed (currently at 0%) and a floating. Buying this gives you the floating for the next 6 months and then whatever the new rate is. You can sell between one and five years and take a 3month interest penalty, sell after five for no penalty or hold it for the entire 30 year term.

 

[FelixDeCat]

AMD beats.


Short it.

 

[PlanetJosh]

^ That seems to be the new logic in general since the end of last year. Like with NVDA beats back then. It hit my long on it really hard. Of course after a month or so it went back up but I had dumped all of it before it recovered. And now I'm back in it waiting for the Fed comments tomorrow.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The Fed should raise by 1% today.

 

[ultimatebob]

The Fed should raise by 1% today.

I doubt that they'll raise by that much in one shot, even though they probably should. I'd expect half a point.

 

[AdamK47]

The Fed should raise by 1% today.

Let's go in for a hard landing.

 

[AdamK47]

0.50%

Yields down. Stocks up.

What a shocker

 

[jpiniero]

0.50%

Yields down. Stocks up.

What a shocker

Flat now. Them turning off the money printer is the bigger deal.