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JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
FelixDeCat said:
I dont know man. With the threat of your money disappearing in a fund overnight, I would think of something else to do. Maybe you can short oil companies outright. Here are three "winners" worth shorting, as noted by Motley Fool:

www.fool.com

Why Suncor Energy, Continental Resources, and Occidental Petroleum Stocks Crashed Almost 10% Today | The Motley Fool

Saudi Arabia just crushed crude oil prices. Here are the latest victims.
www.fool.com www.fool.com

....although they dont suggest shorting outright, just to stay the hell away from oil. That might be the best bet of all.
Click to expand...
the question is what will the price of the new SCO eft be this week after they convert to the new rebalance formula?

it's $18.62 as of Fri's close.
if the price will be higher, buy now.
if the price will be lower, buy the 2x bull version (uco)
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,103
2,718
126
@ponyo

So I was tempted to buy a put or two on Nikola but got cold feet. First I saw what looked like some signs that PUTS will decline in value and the stock could go back up to $40 (speculative guess only, do not buy just on my hunch).

And now Yahoo suggests Nikola might still in fact be the next Tesla. Read this for a laugh or two:


Who knows. I currently have no position. With the heavy put volume recently, lots of people will be on the sidelines ready to buy in any drops.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
FelixDeCat said:
@ponyo

So I was tempted to buy a put or two on Nikola but got cold feet. First I saw what looked like some signs that PUTS will decline in value and the stock could go back up to $40 (speculative guess only, do not buy just on my hunch).

And now Yahoo suggests Nikola might still in fact be the next Tesla. Read this for a laugh or two:


Who knows. I currently have no position. With the heavy put volume recently, lots of people will be on the sidelines ready to buy in any drops.
Click to expand...
I'm not touching NKLA even though I know it's fraud. That short trade is so crowded that any kind of buying will cause massive short covering. You can't short NKLA because the borrow rate is insanely high. Seriously, borrow interest rate on NKLA is like 10,000%. It's impossible to short the stock because of the insane broker borrow rate. And you don't want to buy put option because the IV on NKLA is 270%. For reference, TSLA which is crazy volatile stock with daily moves over $200 a day pre-split price has IV of 109%. It's hard to make money buying options when IV is 270%. That's when you sell options and join Theta gang. But who wants to sell puts on a scam company like NKLA and actually risk getting assigned shares in this fraudulent company? Not me. Sometimes, the best play is to not play at all. So I won't touch NKLA even though I know it's 100% scam and knew for very long time. Way before this report came out.

The Yahoo finance author is a retard and don't know crap about Nikola or Tesla.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,103
2,718
126
ponyo said:
I'm not touching NKLA even though I know it's fraud. That short trade is so crowded that any kind of buying will cause massive short covering. You can't short NKLA because the borrow rate is insanely high. Seriously, borrow interest rate on NKLA is like 10,000%. It's impossible to short the stock because of the insane broker borrow rate. And you don't want to buy put option because the IV on NKLA is 270%. For reference, TSLA which is crazy volatile stock with daily moves over $200 a day pre-split price has IV of 109%. It's hard to make money buying options when IV is 270%. That's when you sell options and join Theta gang. But who wants to sell puts on a scam company like NKLA and actually risk getting assigned shares in this fraudulent company? Not me. Sometimes, the best play is to not play at all. So I won't touch NKLA even though I know it's 100% scam and knew for very long time. Way before this report came out.

The Yahoo finance author is a retard and don't know crap about Nikola or Tesla.
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This was useful information, thanks!

It would be quite the gamble to write options on the stock. On one hand you have a chance the stock is relatively stable for a while, which is great when you are short options. On the other hand you have a chance the headquarters are raided by the FBI and the stock plunges to near zero. Fun times. :)
 
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FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,103
2,718
126
The last time I remember a publicly traded company being raided by the FBI was HealthSouth back in 2003. They were a thriving health care network. The CEO Richard Scrushy sold stock just before it was revealed the company had been inflating earnings and cooking the books since 1996. It was a $1.4 billion dollar fraud.

According to Wikipedia, there were rumors and accusations of wrongdoing going back to 1998 but the stock continued to do well despite this. Finally the SEC began a crackdown in late 2002 and the stock fell from $85 to $20. Then the FBI came calling in March 2003, and raided the corporate offices.

The stock from $20 to 42 CENTS in ONE DAY:

Capture.JPG

Bankruptcy was a real possibility but they manged to survive through restructuring.

The stock was halted, delisted and traded on the OTC BB. Nine months after the raid, the stock was back up to $20. Three years later it was back on the NYSE. It has since renamed itself Encompass Health and they are doing fine.
 
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FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,103
2,718
126
FelixDeCat said:
@ponyo

So I was tempted to buy a put or two on Nikola but got cold feet. First I saw what looked like some signs that PUTS will decline in value and the stock could go back up to $40 (speculative guess only, do not buy just on my hunch).

And now Yahoo suggests Nikola might still in fact be the next Tesla. Read this for a laugh or two:


Who knows. I currently have no position. With the heavy put volume recently, lots of people will be on the sidelines ready to buy in any drops.
Click to expand...

Thank goodness I passed on those puts!
 
ultimatebob

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,134
2,450
126
So... how are we feeling about the Snowflake IPO? Anybody here get in on that?

I'd imagine that it will spike on the first few days of trading, have a quick sell-off due to profit taking, and then eventually get bought out by Google, Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, or Oracle. Most quickly growing database platforms end up going this route eventually.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
FelixDeCat said:
Thank goodness I passed on those puts!
Click to expand...
Remember bankrupt Hertz went from like $0.50 to $7. And people still bought stock of Luckin Coffee even after the accounting fraud scandal like idiots before it was delisted.

Too many people have vested interest in keeping NKLA scam going for now. And it's rarely good idea to jump in on a crowded trade. NKLA put trade is crowded as can be. Like I said, any kind of buying pressure can cause massive short squeeze and wipe out your puts.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
ultimatebob said:
So... how are we feeling about the Snowflake IPO? Anybody here get in on that?

I'd imagine that it will spike on the first few days of trading, have a quick sell-off due to profit taking, and then eventually get bought out by Google, Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, or Oracle. Most quickly growing database platforms end up going this route eventually.
Click to expand...
SNOW IPO is too hot so it's hard pass for me. Plus, it's an industry I know nothing about.

Airbnb IPO is what I'm interested in. Airbnb valuation was supposedly cut in half the last funding round after COVID-19. So if I can buy in at $15 billion valuation instead of previous $30 billion, Airbnb will get my money. I think Airbnb is longterm winner.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,103
2,718
126
ponyo said:
Remember bankrupt Hertz went from like $0.50 to $7. And people still bought stock of Luckin Coffee even after the accounting fraud scandal like idiots before it was delisted.

Too many people have vested interest in keeping NKLA scam going for now. And it's rarely good idea to jump in on a crowded trade. NKLA put trade is crowded as can be. Like I said, any kind of buying pressure can cause massive short squeeze and wipe out your puts.
Click to expand...

Thankfully my spidey sense and reading the volume numbers on the upper end puts gave me a sense of what *might* happen. Now there is talk of an SEC investigation so there is more drama to come. I still have no position.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,103
2,718
126
Too bad I was tempted back into another Covid stock today. I was planning to avoid them. ;)

I bought 1100 shares of VXRT at $6.60 at the open. Shorted $6 call when the stock was $8, covered and dumped the shares 9/15.

I also picked up 1000 SAVA @ 7.00. Added 500 more SAVA.
 
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ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
TSLA price is now about 7% higher than when S&P snubbed them and tried to market time Tesla inclusion into S&P 500 index. The longer S&P waits, the higher price S&P indexers will pay for TSLA. S&P can't deny TSLA forever. Assholes.
 
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D

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,669
557
136
allisolm said:
Last month Apple split 4 for 1. Next month NEE, NEXTERA ENERGY INC SHS is splitting 4 for 1. I am currently up over $61K with them.Price right now 295.84 up almost $14 from yesterday.

www.fool.com

Why NextEra Energy's Stock Is Rallying Today | The Motley Fool

The utility's recent announcements were music to investors' ears.
www.fool.com www.fool.com

Just in case anyone might be interested.
Click to expand...

Looks like you made a damn good call there. What are the chances the split makes the stock pop more? I'd be a little afraid of buying at the top right now. They do pay almost 2%.

I've been sort of watching DAO out of the corner of my eye but I'm trying to break my Chinese stock habit. Would have been a great day trade today.
 
dullard

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,130
4,787
126
ponyo said:
TSLA price is now about 7% higher than when S&P snubbed them and tried to market time Tesla inclusion into S&P 500 index. The longer S&P waits, the higher price S&P indexers will pay for TSLA. S&P can't deny TSLA forever.
Click to expand...
It looks like there is a good chance that Tesla won't be profitable this quarter. That resets the clock for inclusion.
 
allisolm

allisolm

Elite Member
Administrator
Jan 2, 2001
25,342
5,010
136
dasherHampton said:
What are the chances the split makes the stock pop more?
Click to expand...

All of the articles I read today seemed to agree on this: that the stock split isn't as important as the company's expectation for 2021's earnings per share to be higher than its earlier forecast.

"While NextEra's stock split won't create any tangible value for investors, its other announcement should. The company said it now expects its 2021 earnings per share to come in $0.20 per share (pre-split) above its prior forecast. The company also anticipates growing its earnings per share in 2022 and 2023 at a 6% to 8% annual rate off that higher expected base. This updated forecast not only increases its near-term earnings outlook, but also extends it for another year.

NextEra Energy has an excellent track record for generating above-average earnings and dividend growth. That has powered a steady upward trend in its stock price, which put it out of reach for some investors. With the split, more investors will be able to afford shares. Meanwhile, with its growth forecast accelerating, it's an even better long-term opportunity for all portfolio sizes."
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
dullard said:
It looks like there is a good chance that Tesla won't be profitable this quarter. That resets the clock for inclusion.
Click to expand...
Maybe. Maybe not. You don't know with Tesla. However it doesn't matter. Tesla could have $600 billion or $1 trillion market cap in the future. Whenever S&P adds, TSLA will run up huge and S&P indexers will have to pay up big time. Delaying and trying to market time doesn't do anything but hurt S&P because they can't avoid TSLA huge run up once the official announcement is made. It doesn't matter if Tesla is added this year, next year, or 10 years from now. The longer S&P waits, the more the indexers will pay and the less upside gains the indexers will enjoy.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
brianmanahan said:
or like 100$ billion which would be more reasonable
Click to expand...
giphy.gif
 
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s0me0nesmind1

Lifer
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
allisolm said:
Last month Apple split 4 for 1. Next month NEE, NEXTERA ENERGY INC SHS is splitting 4 for 1. I am currently up over $61K with them.Price right now 295.84 up almost $14 from yesterday.

www.fool.com

Why NextEra Energy's Stock Is Rallying Today | The Motley Fool

The utility's recent announcements were music to investors' ears.
www.fool.com www.fool.com

Just in case anyone might be interested.
Click to expand...
Not a good look. NEE announces equity raise the day after announcing 4 for 1 stock split to pump up the stock price. They knew exactly what they were doing announcing that stock split.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nextera-energy-announces-sale-equity-123000542.html

No skin in the game and no plans to ever. But interesting pump and dump by the company.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
s0me0nesmind1 said:
lol Fed is apparently already declaring that rates will stay "near zero" THROUGH 2023... Christ...

Click to expand...
Which means helicopter money will continue. And plain conservative bank savers will get punished by the low near 0% interest rates and rising inflation. Cash will continue to be trash. So you have to stay invested in the stock market and real estate to generate any kind of meaningful return whether you like it or not. I highly suggest people start learning how to sell options to generate steady returns if you don't already know how. That's going to be one of the keys to surviving, beating, and thriving in this near 0% interest rate environment.
 
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