Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Tesla Battery Day justified and gave credibility to TSLA current market cap and stock price. It was basically the official unveiling of Tesla Master Plan Part 3. It outlined clear path on how Tesla is going to get to selling 20 million vehicles a year by 2030 and how Tesla energy was going to become as big or bigger than Tesla automotive. Basically, it outlined how TSLA was going to become the world's most valuable company in the future and backed it up with science and technology they're working on. It was extremely bullish presentation but what Tesla announced is too scientific and above the understanding of the dumb short term traders. And the timeline is too far away for them. So it doesn't surprise me we're getting the sell the news. I sort of expected it which is why I sold the weekly $500 covered calls and $500/505 bear call spreads.

Today I plan to sell $350 cash covered puts to take advantage of the higher put premiums and possibly buy TSLA shares at a discount.

 

[ponyo]

Funny thing is Tesla battery suppliers like Panasonic, LG, and CATL all sold off around 5% in Asia trading following the Battery Day unveiling.

Berkshire and Warren Buffett bet on the wrong horse in BYD. Tesla is going to win the battery race and war.

 

[KB]

Tesla Battery Day justified and gave credibility to TSLA current market cap and stock price. It was basically the official unveiling of Tesla Master Plan Part 3. It outlined clear path on how Tesla is going to get to selling 20 million vehicles a year by 2030 and how Tesla energy was going to become as big or bigger than Tesla automotive. Basically, it outlined how TSLA was going to become the world's most valuable company in the future and backed it up with science and technology they're working on. It was extremely bullish presentation but what Tesla announced is too scientific and above the understanding of the dumb short term traders. And the timeline is too far away for them. So it doesn't surprise me we're getting the sell the news. I sort of expected it which is why I sold the weekly $500 covered calls and $500/505 bear call spreads.

Today I plan to sell $350 cash covered puts to take advantage of the higher put premiums and possibly buy TSLA shares at a discount.

TSLA going from < 1% to 25% of world car sales in a decade sounds a little far-fetched. I am still uncertain we can produce that many batteries in a year until we abandon all rare-earths and lithium batteries.

 

[ponyo]

TSLA going from < 1% to 25% of world car sales in a decade sounds a little far-fetched. I am still uncertain we can produce that many batteries in a year until we abandon all rare-earths and lithium batteries.

Definitely agree it's very ambitious goal. But that's what I love about Tesla. Elon Musk and Tesla are not afraid to dream big and set ultra aggressive goals. And then they work their asses off trying their best to achieve that lofty goal. Sometimes they hit it. Sometimes they fail. But they learn from their failures and work even faster and harder at the new solutions. So the pace of innovation at Tesla is actually increasing and not decreasing. Most companies slow down and become complacent when they achieve certain large scale and success. But not Tesla. And not SpaceX. Elon pushes them hard. What Tesla revealed at Battery Day makes me believe Tesla can do it. They're setting up the groundwork to make it happen. They're not waiting for others to make it happen. They're doing it even if they have to vertically integrate everything and do it themselves.

Never bet against Elon Musk.

 

[ponyo]

Sold some Oct 2 TSLA $350 and $330 cash covered puts.

 

[FelixDeCat]

^^^ careful, the QQQs are back at 266 after bouncing off the 273 avg, that might mean the retest 260 lows and maybe go lower

My longer term pick is QQQ 243...lots of downside to go. I daytraded some puts today (long).

Hold on to your butts because its going to get violent with big ups and downs.

See my prediction chart a few posts above.

 

[ponyo]

Not scared at all. I left plenty of room to average down. And any put I sell I'm willing to own stock at that price. I never sell puts without the cash to buy all the shares.

 

[cytg111]

Sup dudes and dudesses .
How would you go around investing in AR? No not the gun.

I share Marks vision for AR, wish Oculus was not bought by Facebook, dont like Face, dont like Mark too much, but money dont have feelings. His vision is good and IMO its revolutionary tech with a huuuuge impact down the road.

I am looking to get my foot in there when its still "high risc" and do a 10x payday in 10 years sort of thing (numbers variable).

Buying Facebook is one path of course BUT .. its dragging that the rest of Facebook with it.

ideas? Get into AR before it takes off. How?

 

[ultimatebob]

Sup dudes and dudesses .
How would you go around investing in AR? No not the gun.

I share Marks vision for AR, wish Oculus was not bought by Facebook, dont like Face, dont like Mark too much, but money dont have feelings. His vision is good and IMO its revolutionary tech with a huuuuge impact down the road.

I am looking to get my foot in there when its still "high risc" and do a 10x payday in 10 years sort of thing (numbers variable).

Buying Facebook is one path of course BUT .. its dragging that the rest of Facebook with it.

ideas? Get into AR before it takes off. How?

It could have been worse... Google could have bought it, and then stopped development of the product after it being unprofitable for 18 months. They've done it with many products before.

 

[ponyo]

Sold more Oct 2 TSLA $350 and $330 puts.

 

[cytg111]

Sold more Oct 2 TSLA $350 and $330 puts.

Dude, how would you get into AR ?

 

[ponyo]

Dude, how would you get into AR ?

Facebook or Apple. But FB has market cap of $700 billion and AAPL has market cap of over $1.84 trillion. So AR isn't going to move the needle much for both companies. It will probably help FB more and that's what I would buy if I was buying for AR. You want to buy the leader and the leader of AR space is Oculus.

Facebook and Apple stocks don't interest me. When I invest, I look for potential 5x-10x future winners. FB would be lucky to double from current level to $1.4 trillion and APPL is not doubling. If Apple doubles, it would be close to $4 trillion dollar company. That's not happening. Apple is dead weight and dividend play for the foreseeable future.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Facebook or Apple. But FB has market cap of $700 billion and AAPL has market cap of over $1.84 trillion. So AR isn't going to move the needle much for both companies. It will probably help FB more and that's what I would buy if I was buying for AR. You want to buy the leader and the leader of AR space is Oculus.

Facebook and Apple stocks don't interest me. When I invest, I look for potential 5x-10x future winners. FB would be lucky to double from current level to $1.4 trillion and APPL is not doubling. If Apple doubles, it would be close to $4 trillion dollar company. That's not happening. Apple is dead weight and dividend play for the foreseeable future.

Pretty much. If you want "slow and steady" then just buy some Index funds in S&P. You're basically buying 30% FAANG stocks anyway.

If you want any sort of real gain it only comes from investing in something smaller and Oculus seems like the only real option.

 

[ponyo]

Pretty much. If you want "slow and steady" then just buy some Index funds in S&P. You're basically buying 30% FAANG stocks anyway.

If you want any sort of real gain it only comes from investing in something smaller and Oculus seems like the only real option.

Facebook owns Oculus.

FAANG is yesterday's news. FAANG stocks had terrific run the past decade. But if you want future outsized gains, you have to find this decade's new leaders. And it's not going to be FAANG because those stocks are now close to fully valued for their future potential. I'm not buying any FAANG stocks.

 

[cytg111]

Looking at IMMR, MVIS, VUZI, LITE, you know something in the supply chain to AR, cause yea, AAPL, FB is not gonna move that 10x needle.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sava was a very nice flip today. Picked up @9.15, sold 9.85.

I think it may see $20+ one day but its so far away, Ive chosen just to trade it. I do own a tiny position in my HSA just in case it takes off sooner rather than later.

 

[ponyo]

Looking at IMMR, MVIS, VUZI, LITE, you know something in the supply chain to AR, cause yea, AAPL, FB is not gonna move that 10x needle.

I don't like playing supply chain stocks because while rising tides can lift all boats, you can get screwed badly if the supply company lose major contract. And margins are constantly under pressure since they're supplying big customer. The big customers will constantly demand lower prices in order to drive down costs and increase their own margin.

Anytime I think of danger of investing in supply chain stock, I think of GT Advanced. They were supposed to supply sapphire glass for Apple iPhone and Apple Watch but filed for bankruptcy instead. People lost their life savings betting on GT Advanced would ride the iPhone and Apple Watch wave with Apple.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gt-advanced-files-bankruptcy-141250486.html

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

lol wonky volatile day. Stocks down... then DOW up 500... now back to negative for closing.

Tons of shit news from Washington. Crap jobless claims. Congress is about to go home again without passing stimulus.

Smellin' some doom n' gloom.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I don't like playing supply chain stocks because while rising tides can lift all boats, you can get screwed badly if the supply company lose major contract. And margins are constantly under pressure since they're supplying big customer. The big customers will constantly demand lower prices in order to drive down costs and increase their own margin.

Anytime I think of danger of investing in supply chain stock, I think of GT Advanced. They were supposed to supply sapphire glass for Apple iPhone and Apple Watch but filed for bankruptcy instead. People lost their life savings betting on GT Advanced would ride the iPhone and Apple Watch wave with Apple.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gt-advanced-files-bankruptcy-141250486.html

I completely forgot about GTAT. Its hard to believe they went belly up 6 years ago now. What a fiasco!

Shareholders were thinking they would sue the pants off Apple, which is nigh impossible since they can fight forever. Apple finally settled 5 YEARS later for a paltry couple million, which was probably barely enough to cover GTAT's atty fees:

Apple agrees to settle GT Advanced Technologies lawsuit for $3.5 million - NH Business Review

Pending deal would end litigation surrounding New Hampshire firm’s 2014 bankruptcy

www.nhbr.com

 

[ponyo]

I don't know how many of you are aware of "The Wheel" strategy for options but this is good primer post on WallStreetBets on Reddit on the topic.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/iz68r4

 

[ponyo]

I use modified form of above which I call the "The Tricycle" strategy for Tesla where I often sell both covered calls and cash secured puts while holding TSLA stock position. My view is TSLA stock can only finish up or down. It can't be both up and down at the same time. So I will often win on 2 out of 3 positions and often on all 3. And unlike the traditional wheel I sell both weekly and leap puts on TSLA rather than selling 30 to 45 days out.

I love trading TSLA options because I know the company and the stock well. I'm supremely confident in the longterm success of Tesla as a company. And TSLA is extremely volatile which makes for great trading as the movement ranges are wide and the stock often moves quick. And because TSLA stock moves so much, the IV is extremely high which makes selling options on TSLA very lucrative. And the most important, TSLA stock along with the market have been in an uptrend for the past year which makes trading options for profit little easier. But like any trading strategy, there is time and place to use "The Wheel" and sell options. I don't sell calls close to Tesla earning season even though the calls at that time are the most expensive since IV is elevated. Rather I play the long side and buy calls for the earnings run. But I do sell put options to capture the premiums during the earning run period as I'm expecting the TSLA stock price to move up and put options I sold to expire worthless. Everything has time and place and you have to know when to use certain strategy for higher likely success. Most important skill to learn is when not to trade and just hold stock.

Here are some Sept 25 TSLA $500 calls I sold like week ago. I sold 20 call contracts for average of $23.55 each and collected $47,100 in total premium. Those calls will expire worthless today, and I will keep and bank the full $47,100. Not bad for week's work of doing nothing. Which is why I love being part of the Theta gang. Selling options give me consistent weekly paycheck. And in this near zero interest rate environment, you need all the returns you can get. Hope this helps someone to get started learning about options and how to supplement their trading.

 

[IEC]

I sold a TSLA CSP today. Worst case, I acquire 100 shares at my desired buy-in price. Best case, I walk away with a paycheck's worth of money in premium.

I do a similar strategy for ETFs/index funds.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I don't know how many of you are aware of "The Wheel" strategy for options but this is good primer post on WallStreetBets on Reddit on the topic.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/iz68r4

Thanks for the link - looks intriguing given that they boast that it's just as safe as buy/hold Index funds (which is easy to understand - the worst that can happen is you hold instead of continuously buying/selling)

Overall though, what I could really use is an options trading for dummies guide. Happen to have a good guide/video on just learning the ropes of all the confusing terms they use?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sava $12.00, long 2000 @ 10, short 12.50s

 

[Tweak155]

Thanks for the link - looks intriguing given that they boast that it's just as safe as buy/hold Index funds (which is easy to understand - the worst that can happen is you hold instead of continuously buying/selling)

Overall though, what I could really use is an options trading for dummies guide. Happen to have a good guide/video on just learning the ropes of all the confusing terms they use?

I watched this one a while ago now. It's overly long IMO but he has a lot of good videos to learn options: