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Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
26,827
1,144
126
Last of the daily leveraged oil (no gas) will bite the dust next week. (sco/uco 2x)
it will now rebalance 1/3 of portfolio monthly, 1/3 every June contract, and 1/3 every Dec contract. (it will still keep the sco/uco symbols)

earlier this year, tripled leveraged oil closed down voluntarily with advanced warning.
apparently, people didnt read and lots of people got mad on the day it shut down because oil went up big that day.
(the day it shut down, it wasnt affected by oil price because the shut down price was already announced.)

2x leveraged oil short, DTO, closed down involuntarily and no warning recently.
those who bought it lost everything! :eek:
that includes those who bought the day before.
oil went up 50% during it's rebalance period thus 2x short meant it went down 100%! BOOM...automatic shutdown!
 
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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,143
197
106
Warren Buffet lose the most money for the last year than anyone from the Forbes 400. Elon Musk lose $16.3 Billion in the last few days.

I don't feel so bad about my 2%-4% return rates of my reward checking accounts now.
I would feel good getting 2-4% but I wouldn't expect those rates to last. Banks are losing money paying those rates as a 30 year mortgage is only 2.8%
My banks saving rate is down to 0.1%
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,268
407
96
The interest at the bank where I keep almost all of my savings (Regions) has been basically 0% for as long as I can remember. It bugs me but I don't feel like going through the effort to change to a different institution.

I have nothing to do but wait until next Friday when two options expire.

IQ at $20 will probably be excised but who knows.

I'll have to decided what to do with SRNE. The options are at $7 and I don't see it going back up there in a week but I guess it could. Since my cost basis is $4.77 I could either

1) sell it outright, depending on where it ends up a week from now

2) sell new options if I find a good price

3) just let it sit and hope for a new pop
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,583
2,036
126
https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/

Shortseller Hindenburg Research out with damning report on massive fraud that is Nikola. I already knew most of the stuff that's in the report as I researched the Nikola fraud and its conman Trevor Milton. I said Nikola was Theranos 2.0 and Trevor Milton was total fraud like Elizabeth Holmes. I badly wanted to buy puts on NKLA ever since they became public through that bogus reverse merger. But put premium on NKLA was insane and market can stay irrational longer than I can keep paying the put premium. But I know NKLA is worth $0 and will eventually collapse from the fraud. Just don't know when the house of cards will collapse. Timing is everything in fraud case like this. But because this is not accounting fraud, NKLA won't collapse overnight like Wildcard, Luckin Coffee, or Enron. Too many stupid people and stupid companies have vested interest in keeping this scam going so they can cash out of Nikola leaving retail holding the bag.

But the sad thing is Trevor Milton already stole hundreds of millions and cashed out. It's damn shame conman like him will get away with it and not go to jail while the clueless retail investors are left holding the bag.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,294
469
126
Last of the daily leveraged oil (no gas) will bite the dust next week. (sco/uco 2x)
it will now rebalance 1/3 of portfolio monthly, 1/3 every June contract, and 1/3 every Dec contract. (it will still keep the sco/uco symbols)

earlier this year, tripled leveraged oil closed down voluntarily with advanced warning.
apparently, people didnt read and lots of people got mad on the day it shut down because oil went up big that day.
(the day it shut down, it wasnt affected by oil price because the shut down price was already announced.)

2x leveraged oil short, DTO, closed down involuntarily and no warning recently.
those who bought it lost everything! :eek:
that includes those who bought the day before.
oil went up 50% during it's rebalance period thus 2x short meant it went down 100%! BOOM...automatic shutdown!
I dont know man. With the threat of your money disappearing in a fund overnight, I would think of something else to do. Maybe you can short oil companies outright. Here are three "winners" worth shorting, as noted by Motley Fool:


Some oil stocks fell so much harder than oil prices themselves partly because of the financial condition the companies find themselves in, which leaves them ill-prepared to withstand a prolonged period of weak oil prices. Continental, with a $5.3 billion market capitalization, is the most cash-poor of the three, with less than $7 million in the bank, but $5.8 billion in debt -- more than its own market cap.

Suncor's doing a bit better. Valued at $21.3 billion in market cap, it carries "only" $16.6 billion in debt and has the biggest cash cushion of the three oil companies at $1.4 billion, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Occidental (OXY) is arguably the most vulnerable. Valued at just $10.3 billion, it's only half the size of Suncor but carries far more debt on its books ($41.7 billion) and has only $1 billion in cash.


....although they dont suggest shorting outright, just to stay the hell away from oil. That might be the best bet of all.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,294
469
126
The interest at the bank where I keep almost all of my savings (Regions) has been basically 0% for as long as I can remember. It bugs me but I don't feel like going through the effort to change to a different institution.

I have nothing to do but wait until next Friday when two options expire.

IQ at $20 will probably be excised but who knows.

I'll have to decided what to do with SRNE. The options are at $7 and I don't see it going back up there in a week but I guess it could. Since my cost basis is $4.77 I could either

1) sell it outright, depending on where it ends up a week from now

2) sell new options if I find a good price

3) just let it sit and hope for a new pop
I keep seeing savings offers all the time. Chase keeps offering me a $200 bonus to open a savings account, just deposit $15,000 for 90 days. I think if you Google it you can find the offer. For new customers only. It looks the rate is .01 to .02 after that and terms and conditions apply.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,294
469
126
I got burned the other day trying to trade a Covid stock. If you axe me, all those Covid plays are getting very risky. Too risky to short ..... too risky to own. Just like I predicted earlier this year, Covid will be a cut-throat business.

Hindenburg Research did a hit job on Sorrento, when the stock was falling from $20 all the way to $6. Then they targeted Inovio calling it the next Theranos. Stupid drama queens. It didnt matter though, the stock went up 40% two days later.

Another famous biotech short is Adam Feuerstein. He loves pulling down his pants and taking a crap on hot biotech stocks. Everybody hates him. The funny thing about his calls though is that most of the time the fall is only temporary and the stock he criticizes usually goes right back up despite his "stunning revelations".
 
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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,268
407
96
So what actually happened with SRNE's CFO? I didn't hear anything else after he was fired.

Was he maybe leaking confidential info to short sellers?
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,583
2,036
126
@FelixDeCat , I agree with you Hindenburg are scums and tactics they use should be illegal. That said, I did my own research into Nikola and Trevor Milton last year and found exact same thing Hindenburg is reporting. They actually found more stuff than I found with better details and supporting documents. I learned couple new things in that report but other stuff 100% matched what I found.

Trust me, I read and watched almost every interview on/with Elon Musk on Youtube and the internet. I read Elon Musk biography by Ashlee Vance which confirmed to me Elon Musk was the real deal. After I did my research into Elon Musk and Tesla, I knew I had found the next Steve Jobs/Apple. But because Trevor Milton sued Tesla for design infringement with Tesla Semi, I also became interested in Nikola and Trevor Milton. So I did research into Nikola and Trevor Milton and discovered Trevor was 100% liar and conman. Watch couple of interviews with Milton and it's clear as day. I've been around enough pathological liars during my business ventures that I can spot one mile away. Trevor Milton is total fraud, liar, and scam artist. Nikola is 100% fraud. You can choose to dismiss Hindenburg report because who it's from but they're spot on with this report.
 

woodman1999

Golden Member
Sep 19, 2003
1,541
38
91
So just out of curiosity, if one wanted to dip their pinky toe into trading options, where would one start? Assume minimal knowledge on the subject itself. I want to educate myself considerably before getting into it, so any "Options for Idiots" guidebooks would be real helpful. Also, does anyone have a favorite place they like to trade? I currently only JP Morgan brokerage accounts and a Schwab IRA account from my old job, so I am open to any suggestions on this.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,583
2,036
126
Bought another 1,000 shares of XPEV. I now have about 1/2 of my desired position in Xpeng. I'm putting these shares away and not touching it for like 5-10 years.
 
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Reactions: zinfamous

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
10,886
201
106
So just out of curiosity, if one wanted to dip their pinky toe into trading options, where would one start? Assume minimal knowledge on the subject itself. I want to educate myself considerably before getting into it, so any "Options for Idiots" guidebooks would be real helpful. Also, does anyone have a favorite place they like to trade? I currently only JP Morgan brokerage accounts and a Schwab IRA account from my old job, so I am open to any suggestions on this.
I've only signed up for covered calls in my account. In that case you have to own the stock and sell options on that. Check out this for basics.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,268
407
96
So just out of curiosity, if one wanted to dip their pinky toe into trading options, where would one start? Assume minimal knowledge on the subject itself. I want to educate myself considerably before getting into it, so any "Options for Idiots" guidebooks would be real helpful. Also, does anyone have a favorite place they like to trade? I currently only JP Morgan brokerage accounts and a Schwab IRA account from my old job, so I am open to any suggestions on this.
It's just my opinion but I wouldn't be scared of selling a single contract while you learn, just to get your feet wet. Just make sure its a good stock that you don't mind holding.

Let's say the stock is at $30 and you sell a contract to buy the stock at $27 (the further out you go the more the contact will be worth). You're only on the hook for $2700. And if it drops below $27 and you do have to buy it it can introduce you to the put/call cycle. You can turn around and sell a contract on the stock at the price of your choosing.

Does danger exist? Of course. That's the market. Something catastrophic could occur and the stock could drop to $18, leaving you with a $900 loss and dead money for a while. But if its a good stock it will come back (buying options back is always an option but I don't like to take an unnecessary loss on solid stocks).

Some may (rightfully) say "Why not just invest in funds? They return an average of 10% historically". I can't argue with that.

I do it mainly for two reasons:

1) As you gain experience and learn how to find a "good thing" you can easily make more than 10%. My latest good thing is Seagate. If my math is correct I've made a little over 13% in 5 months without having to buy a single share.

2) Selling options is like getting a paycheck. The second you sell them the cash is deposited into your account and you can do what you want with it. Just don't forget about taxes.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,552
1,149
126
I would feel good getting 2-4% but I wouldn't expect those rates to last. Banks are losing money paying those rates as a 30 year mortgage is only 2.8%
My banks saving rate is down to 0.1%
I have several reward checking accounts and most of them used to pay 4% or higher. Now only two of them are paying 4% or higher. The rest are paying 2.xx% and one is paying 1.51%.

I would not put my money in a brick and mortar bank savings account. Put them in online savings accounts for about 1% or so.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,583
2,036
126
I have several reward checking accounts and most of them used to pay 4% or higher. Now only two of them are paying 4% or higher. The rest are paying 2.xx% and one is paying 1.51%.

I would not put my money in a brick and mortar bank savings account. Put them in online savings accounts for about 1% or so.
Don't most reward checking cap the maximum deposit amount to something small like $10k-$15k or so? The reward checking requirements seem like way too much work for little reward.

If you're a saver, current low interest rate environment suck so bad. You can't earn enough interest on risk free assets. So you're forced to take on risk and invest in the stock market if you want chance at any kind of decent return.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,552
1,149
126
Don't most reward checking cap the maximum deposit amount to something small like $10k-$15k or so? The reward checking requirements seem like way too much work for little reward.

If you're a saver, current low interest rate environment suck so bad. You can't earn enough interest on risk free assets. So you're forced to take on risk and invest in the stock market if you want chance at any kind of decent return.
Some do have low limits ($7.5K, $10K), some do have higher limits ($25K, $40K). That's why I have not one or two but several reward checking accounts and getting pay about $375 per month from all of them accounts. The pay out amount was a lot higher when most of them were paying about 4% but only two of them are paying that high.

Not great but not bad for something that I can't afford to lose the principal amounts as I could in the stock market (10 years or less).
 
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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,583
2,036
126
Some do have low limits ($7.5K, $10K), some do have higher limits ($25K, $40K). That's why I have not one or two but several reward checking accounts and getting pay about $375 per month from all of them accounts. The pay out amount was a lot higher when most of them were paying about 4% but only two of them are paying that high.

Not great but not bad for something that I can't afford to lose the principal amounts as I could in the stock market (10 years or less).
Damn man, you're crazy risk adverse. o_O 10 years is long time. What are you saving this money for that you can't risk losing any of the principal? For house down payment?
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,552
1,149
126
Damn man, you're crazy risk adverse. o_O 10 years is long time. What are you saving this money for that you can't risk losing any of the principal? For house down payment?
Don't get me wrong, I do have my investments in the stock market, mostly in the S&P 500 index funds. I am saving these accounts when I am fully vested in retirement/pension at this current place of employment, about 5 more years or so (that's why I said in my previous post "10 years or less") and then I will head out on the road and be a free agent/travel digital nomad/self employed/work whenever I want to and not have to.

Free (literally and figuratively) at last indeed.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
104,844
19,527
136
I like how you say this:
Don't most reward checking cap the maximum deposit amount to something small like $10k-$15k or so?
and then say this!
The reward checking requirements seem like way too much work for little reward.
:D

I mean, to a lot of people, 10k-15k to lock up for 90 days in a garbage checking account is NOT SMALL. ...which is why your second statement-so much work-doesn't make sense. ...yes, tying up that amount of money is the work. It's nuts.


[ [EDIT] Oh, I just "noticed" (more like, processed) the "maximum" deposit part of your comment. this now makes more sense. anyway, yes, carry on. :D ]]



Anyway, yes, it's ridiculous in the end.

A ton of online savings accounts, like AMEX, I think, and PenFed? are still fairly decent, with no minimums and a "generous" ~1% for doing absolutely nothing. I know that 2% was the high only 2 years ago, and for at least 4 straight years--obviously, these things should tell you about where things are heading with the actual economy, not simply bullshit Wallstreet daily protestations.


....I still recall my ING (RIP) savings account from c. 2003-2006 that had 5-6% return, and a 3 and 5 year CD with, respectively, 3.5% and 8% returns, at least through the first 2 renewals at that time. ....of course that shit cratered toot-sweet (just like the rest of ING) around 2009. :D
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,552
1,149
126
A ton of online savings accounts, like AMEX, I think, and PenFed? are still fairly decent, with no minimums and a "generous" ~1% for doing absolutely nothing. I know that 2% was the high only 2 years ago, and for at least 4 straight years--obviously, these things should tell you about where things are heading with the actual economy, not simply bullshit Wallstreet daily protestations.
Nope, and dropping lower.

Amex Savings - 0.80% APY - https://www.americanexpress.com/en-us/banking/online-savings/high-yield-savings/

PenFed Savings - 0.70% APY - https://www.penfed.org/accounts/premium-online-savings
 
  • Haha
Reactions: zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
104,844
19,527
136
eh, still qualifies for my ~1% comment. :D

I know it had been dropping quickly in a short amount of time. I didn't look at it at all when I posted that; just assumed it had to be 1% or lower by now. Hence, the "~"

But damn, that blows. Still, way better than what my credit union thinks is amazeballs for a rate. (I just have a savings account in order to funnel money into car payment...they keep trying to sell me crap. I keep ignoring them)
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,583
2,036
126
I like how you say this:


and then say this!


:D

I mean, to a lot of people, 10k-15k to lock up for 90 days in a garbage checking account is NOT SMALL. ...which is why your second statement-so much work-doesn't make sense. ...yes, tying up that amount of money is the work. It's nuts.


[ [EDIT] Oh, I just "noticed" (more like, processed) the "maximum" deposit part of your comment. this now makes more sense. anyway, yes, carry on. :D ]]



Anyway, yes, it's ridiculous in the end.

A ton of online savings accounts, like AMEX, I think, and PenFed? are still fairly decent, with no minimums and a "generous" ~1% for doing absolutely nothing. I know that 2% was the high only 2 years ago, and for at least 4 straight years--obviously, these things should tell you about where things are heading with the actual economy, not simply bullshit Wallstreet daily protestations.


....I still recall my ING (RIP) savings account from c. 2003-2006 that had 5-6% return, and a 3 and 5 year CD with, respectively, 3.5% and 8% returns, at least through the first 2 renewals at that time. ....of course that shit cratered toot-sweet (just like the rest of ING) around 2009. :D
Most of the reward checking is not simply just deposit your money and do nothing. You have to have direct deposit and also do like 5-10 debit card transactions each month in order to collect that 2-4% interest. Basically, they make you jump through hoops to get that reward. So it's not passive interest income. It's work.

Sorry about the $10k-$15k being small comment. It's not small to most people. Sometimes I say stupid things.

I remember the good old days of 5-6% CD rates back in 2000. But current environment just sucks for cash. Cash is trash it seems. I have some cash I need to park somewhere for the short term like 6 months. Best I've found is JPMorgan Chase $2,500 bonus promotion for new private banking clients who deposit $250k into new checking account. I think I have to leave the money in there for 90 days. Then I could close the account and transfer to some online savings account that pays like 1% interest. If anyone knows something better, that would be great.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,552
1,149
126
Most of the reward checking is not simply just deposit your money and do nothing. You have to have direct deposit and also do like 5-10 debit card transactions each month in order to collect that 2-4% interest. Basically, they make you jump through hoops to get that reward. So it's not passive interest income. It's work.

Sorry about the $10k-$15k being small comment. It's not small to most people. Sometimes I say stupid things.

I remember the good old days of 5-6% CD rates back in 2000. But current environment just sucks for cash. Cash is trash it seems. I have some cash I need to park somewhere for the short term like 6 months. Best I've found is JPMorgan Chase $2,500 bonus promotion for new private banking clients who deposit $250k into new checking account. I think I have to leave the money in there for 90 days. Then I could close the account and transfer to some online savings account that pays like 1% interest. If anyone knows something better, that would be great.
All, and I mean ALL as in 100% of my reward checking accounts require over 10 debit transactions (none of them are below 10) or more (one even requires 20 debit transaction) per month PLUS log into your account at least once per month PLUS receive e-statement per month PLUS at least 1 ACH (e-deposit or bill paying) per month into the account. Yup. have to work to earn those higher rates. I have to do over 120 debits per month for all my reward checking accounts.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
104,844
19,527
136
Most of the reward checking is not simply just deposit your money and do nothing. You have to have direct deposit and also do like 5-10 debit card transactions each month in order to collect that 2-4% interest. Basically, they make you jump through hoops to get that reward. So it's not passive interest income. It's work.

Sorry about the $10k-$15k being small comment. It's not small to most people. Sometimes I say stupid things.

I remember the good old days of 5-6% CD rates back in 2000. But current environment just sucks for cash. Cash is trash it seems. I have some cash I need to park somewhere for the short term like 6 months. Best I've found is JPMorgan Chase $2,500 bonus promotion for new private banking clients who deposit $250k into new checking account. I think I have to leave the money in there for 90 days. Then I could close the account and transfer to some online savings account that pays like 1% interest. If anyone knows something better, that would be great.
yeah, you're right, I forgot all of the direct deposit requirements and as SVNLA mentioned, all of the online check-ins and button pushing. I get one or two of those in the snail mail every month and I laugh and toss them out. I mean...wtf?

I'm still stuck on the --very temporary-- reality of my 7% whatever no requirements ING savings and CDs from years ago, so I look at all this other stuff and just dismiss it because "I can do better!" (loo, I now understand that reality).
It was the first thing I knew, really, because someone told me about it. I didn't really get it at the time, but I just parked money that suddenly came to me there, because I asked someone what I should do with money, suddenly, because I had no idea what to do with it at the time. He was like, "Bro...this ING account gives 7%, no questions, and their CDs are bonkers."

"What's a CD?"

It's a thing that gives you 9% for 5 years locked...theirs does, anyway.

Is that good?

Bro, do it.


...I tend to trust reasonably confident people, in the right situation. :D
 

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