Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

I think that we all knew that the market recovery was WAY ahead of the actual economic recovery, and that a correction was coming. The real question is how big it will be, and how long it will take to recover.

Dont be shocked if a bunch of herp-a-derps go right back in and start shorting market puts again and the take the indices right back up to towards all time highs as soon as tomorrow. You have to know the mind of pathological bulls.

How do you think this bubble started in the first place? It was led by big money shorting volatility, shorting puts and buying every dip on the full faith and credit of Uncle Sugar. The rest of the market followed and the millennials made it a casino.

I can see the 50 year old money manager. He was $25,000,000 to invest by EOM. He knows the market is at nosebleed levels and will average in some tomorrow. However, he already oversees $500,000,000 of money in the market now and about 20-30% of it is profit made just this year. He CANT SELL. What is he going to tell his investors? "I feared a correction so I sold you out of Apple and Tesla." No. He will purchase cheap puts just in case sh*t gets crazy election time. He will also buy VIX calls which were up nicely today.

Since nothing has fundamentally changed besides stretched valuations, he has to stay invested and buy insurance on his portfolio. The people selling that insurance have to hedge those puts by shorting indexes like QQQ, SPY, DIA and futures. Then you got the people that make money on the side shorting those puts by writing spreads, or that very same money manager trying to offset his insurance costs by selling near term put contracts against his longer term puts.

....of course I could be completely wrong......we may go down a full 10% by next week.....like I said earlier...I will stay short but I wont let my profit disappear.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Market down 9.5% in two days. Covered, sold SQQQ.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Im shocked at how fast tech has fallen. Now in hysterical mode.

The margin desks are busy all across America. Definitely a pepto bismol Friday.

"Sorry sir, we had to sell you out." - margin clerk

"Why" - random 22 year old

"Read your margin agreement" - margin clerk

"Doh!" - random 22 year old

 

[dullard]

Im shocked at how fast tech has fallen. Now in hysterical mode.

Every single bubble:
1) Bursts later than you would think
2) Reaches higher than you would think
3) Because of #1 and #2 falls faster than you would think

I partly got out of the market Aug 6 (https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/official-2020-stock-market-thread.2574789/post-40245344). I wish I had gotten out at the end of August instead (See #1 and #2). But, I'm ready for #3 with lots of cash.

 

[woodman1999]

Took my cost out of AMD and NVDA this at open as well as dumping GRUB for an 83% gain.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Every single bubble:
1) Bursts later than you would think
2) Reaches higher than you would think
3) Because of #1 and #2 falls faster than you would think

I partly got out of the market Aug 6 (https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/official-2020-stock-market-thread.2574789/post-40245344). I wish I had gotten out at the end of August instead (See #1 and #2). But, I'm ready for #3 with lots of cash.

I took my retirement money 100% out of stocks on 8/26:

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I now own short term bonds until after the election.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Took my cost out of AMD and NVDA this at open as well as dumping GRUB for an 83% gain.

No one ever went broke taking a profit!

 

[dullard]

I took my retirement money 100% out of stocks on 8/26:

Congrats! Luckily for me the funds that I was in (lots of value and mid cap) were not quite as impacted by the gains in August. But, still you did time it better than I.

 

[ponyo]

Diamond hands here. Bought more TSLA calls on that break below $380 this morning. They're not getting my TSLA shares and calls before S&P 500 inclusion.

 

[woodman1999]

No one ever went broke taking a profit!

I've always had a very hard time selling out of things. I always think it's going to rocket up right after I sell. A serious case of FOMO

 

[FelixDeCat]

I've always had a very hard time selling out of things. I always think it's going to rocket up right after I sell. A serious case of FOMO

The thing is, besides the fact that the market was overbought near term and all it took was someone buying a gigantic position in volatility to tip over the market down almost 10% in TWO DAYS. Selling begat selling which caused more selling.

I think we go right back up since nothing has fundamentally changed - yet. But later this year, watch out!!!

I bought some QQQs for a trade. Options are too expensive to buy right now.

 

[Artorias]

I always find these crashes interesting. It's like everyone woke up that day and thought "oh shit I have to sell these overvalued stocks", and boom there goes the market.

 

[Svnla]

So who in here is full speed ahead, damn the torpedo? Me. I will keep my dollar cost average investment the same no matter what. Remember 2008? My stock investment went down over 55%. March of this year? 35% off.

Now? Less then $10 a share or about 8% downward. Stay the course until the end for me.

The majority of my net worth is already in multiple reward checking accounts with 2% - 4% interest so no poor house for me.

 

[dasherHampton]

I finally decided to go in on O. Bought 500 shares a few days ago when it was around 60.

I'm targeting O as one of the replacements for my energy stocks over the next decade. I'm going to try to add every time it gets under a certain level. When I retire I hope to be up to a few thousand shares.

I've been waffling for a long time but was finally convinced when I read an article praising how well they got through this vicious downturn. Seems to be a very well run REIT.

 

[ponyo]

Crap! This was totally unexpected. S&P did not choose TSLA for the inclusion. That was my whole thesis why I stayed in TSLA.

 

[ultimatebob]

Crap! This was totally unexpected. S&P did not choose TSLA for the inclusion. That was my whole thesis why I stayed in TSLA.

Don't say that I didn't tell ya so...

I think that they are waiting for the valuation on the stock to cool down a bit before making it a staple of everyone's retirement funds.

Be patient, it will happen soon enough!

 

[ponyo]

Don't say that I didn't tell ya so...

I think that they are waiting for the valuation on the stock to cool down a bit before making it a staple of everyone's retirement funds.

Be patient, it will happen soon enough!

I will revenge trade. I'm buying puts on S&P.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Its hard to say what impact this will have on the market, which is already skittish. I was hoping the market would go right back up but now we have another question mark. And now that TSLA has grown so large, its one of the top ten holdings of the QQQ which I own.

Might be flat to lower on Tuesday. Its not easy to guess when the herd is going to get greedy or fearful.

 

[ultimatebob]

Grr... TSLA is tanking hard. Sometimes I don't like being right

Where do you think that buy back point is, Ponyo? 240?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Grr... TSLA is tanking hard. Sometimes I don't like being right

Where do you think that buy back point is, Ponyo? 240?

With the stock split they still have a looooooooooong way to go.

 

[ultimatebob]

With the stock split they still have a looooooooooong way to go.

I'm just trying to follow the patterns in the TSLA stock chart. It seems to skyrocket upwards, and then quickly loses half of its gains. Rinse, lather, repeat.

The last time it plummeted in value, it dropped by almost 2/3rds. That seemed like an overcorrection to me, so I bought some. I might have to buy some more if it gets below 180, although I don't think that's going to happen unless something crazy happens.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I'm just trying to follow the patterns in the TSLA stock chart. It seems to skyrocket upwards, and then quickly loses half of its gains. Rinse, lather, repeat.

The last time it plummeted in value, it dropped by 2/3rds. That seemed like an overcorrection to me, so I bought some. I might have to buy some more if it gets below 180, although I don't think that's going to happen unless something crazy happens.

I'm honestly cheering a "Come back to reality" correction where the entire market drops 20%+.

 

[Bitek]

The "get rich quick" appeal is far too strong for humanity. History is littered with the bones of those people who died in absolute poverty because of it.

I'm much more of a slow and steady person. I'm pretty much guaranteed to retire wealthy because of it, barring some major health disaster or civil war. Yes, I will work for years. But, I'm halfway through and could retire at any time if I truly wished. There was almost no risk for me. Just get a decent degree and invest in index funds.

More my speed. I have a good job I enjoy, and it pays well. I also don't live very fancy, so I don't need a lot of money. A large portion of my income goes to saving.

I also hate losing money, so what joy I'd get out of making more on risky trades gets swamped out by the times I lose.

Couple that with my very limited amount of time to follow and learn this stuff usually means I'd lose more than win. I'll play around with some side cash here and there, but happy and rich enough as I am, so I don't need to blow that up.

Best of luck to the rest of you, fun to follow

 

[Brainonska511]

I'm many, many years from retirement. But, I cashed out a small index fund I was carrying in mid August to have some more cash on hand to buy more with an inevitable drop. Looking like a good decision.

As for my other funds: I'm just leaving those alone. They are sitting for the long term (20-40+ years horizon).

Wrt individual stocks: I just don't bother. Most of what's mentioned here are already carried in funds I've invested in. Sure, the gains aren't as glamorous, but I'm perfectly happy to take the slow and steady approach to investing.

 

[Svnla]

Warren Buffet lose the most money for the last year than anyone from the Forbes 400. Elon Musk lose $16.3 Billion in the last few days.

I don't feel so bad about my 2%-4% return rates of my reward checking accounts now.