***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

[Charmonium]

As long as inflation remains low, I don't think there is a problem with cutting rates. It's an economic stimulus and that's what you're supposed to feed the economy when you're heading for the down phase of the business cycle.

Everybody knows about typical Keynesian stimulus. When the economy is growing govt is supposed to bank the excess revenue and spend it to pump up the economy during downturns.

Unfortunately, govt doesn't actually work that way. So we have to settle for monetary stimulus instead.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So the only thing left to discover is how much Powell is going to dash any rate cut hopes. The Fed minutes already revealed no appetite for such.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sure enough, two fed officials have come out opposing further rate cuts at this time. I am GLAD to hear of this. It is TOO SOON to be stimulating.

Tomorrow Powell speaks. Could go either way. He usually sticks his foot in his mouth though, so we will see.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/22/man...-nearly-a-decade-according-to-ihs-markit.html

• The U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) was 49.9 in August, below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the first time since September 2009, according to IHS Markit.
• New orders received by manufacturers dropped the most in 10 years, while the data also showed export sales tanked to the lowest level since August 2009, the data shows.
• The survey is an initial reading for the month of August. The final figure will be released Sept. 3.

Gold $1600, says Goldman Sachs. Even if the Fed is slow to react, stimulus abroad will push gold to new highs this year or early next.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Really wish I held on to my CMG a bit longer... Oh well, it's overall like crying over spilled milk. I made double, but not 2.3 double!

I'm honestly hoping for a recession because it will be the first one where I am
1. Employed
2. Employed with a sustainable career with sustainable experience
3. Tons of extra capital to invest after it happens. I have an HSA, 401k, and ROTH IRA to throw into Index funds.... Thati s on top of actual cash sitting in the bank.

 

[Amol S.]

Today.

 

[Amol S.]

Really wish I held on to my CMG a bit longer... Oh well, it's overall like crying over spilled milk. I made double, but not 2.3 double!

I'm honestly hoping for a recession because it will be the first one where I am
1. Employed
2. Employed with a sustainable career with sustainable experience
3. Tons of extra capital to invest after it happens. I have an HSA, 401k, and ROTH IRA to throw into Index funds.... Thati s on top of actual cash sitting in the bank.

I don't want ressesion, I don't have a job right now, nor internship. No work experience yet as I never did a internship up to now. Starting 2nd semester of,grad school.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I don't want ressesion, I don't have a job right now, nor internship. No work experience yet as I never did a internship up to now. Starting 2nd semester of,grad school.

2 things matter in life:
1) Location
2) People, people, and people. You can have straight A's, 20 internships, etc... It's all about who you know and how you network. Majority of people get promoted in life for rubbing the right balls, not working the hardest. My biggest progress in life was getting my 2nd job - which was 100% through a connection unlike my first job which was entirely on my own out of college.

Oh yeah, I guess there is also luck.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Told you guys this was going to happen.

Next week people start wading back into market and looking for bargains.

Lots of economic data next week that will point to where rates go next.

 

[jpiniero]

Lots of economic data next week that will point to where rates go next.

Rate odds briefly jumped a bit yesterday to the point where no cut was up to 10%... and now it's back to 0% with a single cut next time at 95%.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Futures dropping....

....gold popping!

 

[IronWing]

I guess the question is, "will Trump continue with his trade tantrums all the way through the 2020 election?" The Fed doesn't have much to work with here as the discount rate is below inflation.

 

[jpiniero]

I guess the question is, "will Trump continue with his trade tantrums all the way through the 2020 election?" The Fed doesn't have much to work with here as the discount rate is below inflation.

Inflation doesn't matter anymore. It's all about propping up the stock market until the recession comes, at which time they will immediately cut to zero, or maybe less than zero.

 

[FelixDeCat]

We are nothing crack by addicted pussywillows. We are addicted to below market rates, we cant suffer any hickup or even a little economic cough. And any slow down simply cannot be tolerated!!

When men were MEN.....even just 25 years ago....we suffered a lot before the Fed even considered a rate cut. The Fed quickly raised rates at any hint of a recovery and it was not uncommon to set RAISES of 1% or more.

Our economy was STRONG!

Now all we have are a bunch of crybabies, pussywillows, and wankers.

The Fed needs to just say no. No more crack from papa Fed. No medicine until you get sick. And you have to go to bed with a fever for night or two to see if you dont snap out of it on your OWN. If it persists, you get some penicillin rate cuts.

And as soon as you get better we take every thing away from and jack up the prime rate to 10%.

 

[IronWing]

We are nothing crack by addicted pussywillows. We are addicted to below market rates, we cant suffer any hickup or even a little economic cough. And any slow down simply cannot be tolerated!!

We men were MEN.....even just 25 years ago....we suffered a lot before the Fed even considered a rate cut. The Fed quickly raised rates at any hint of a recovery and it was not uncommon to set RAISES of 1% or more.

Our economy was STRONG!

Now all we have are a bunch of crybabies, pussywillows, and wankers.

The Fed needs to just say no. No more crack from papa Fed. No medicine until you get sick. And you have to go to bed with a fever for night or two to see if you dont snap out of it on your OWN. If it persists, you get some penicillin rate cuts.

And as soon as you get better we take every thing away from and jack up the prime rate to 10%.

There's no "we" here.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

We are nothing crack by addicted pussywillows. We are addicted to below market rates, we cant suffer any hickup or even a little economic cough. And any slow down simply cannot be tolerated!!

When men were MEN.....even just 25 years ago....we suffered a lot before the Fed even considered a rate cut. The Fed quickly raised rates at any hint of a recovery and it was not uncommon to set RAISES of 1% or more.

Our economy was STRONG!

Now all we have are a bunch of crybabies, pussywillows, and wankers.

The Fed needs to just say no. No more crack from papa Fed. No medicine until you get sick. And you have to go to bed with a fever for night or two to see if you dont snap out of it on your OWN. If it persists, you get some penicillin rate cuts.

And as soon as you get better we take every thing away from and jack up the prime rate to 10%.

So... you're against our current president that wants to reduce rates by another 1% from the sounds of it?

 

[FelixDeCat]

So... you're against our current president that wants to reduce rates by another 1% from the sounds of it?

I dont have to agree with everything he says. He has been rather unhinged lately saying all sorts of wacky things, insisting the Fed do what he says and they should co-ordinate with him. Thats not what they do. They are supposed to be independent. He was actually expecting a rate cut on Friday - during a normal Powell speech (not a Fed meeting, which does not happen until next month). When he did not get it he criticized Powell harshly.

Then he flew off the handle and "ordered" American companies not to do business with China. That can only be done with the cooperation of Congress, and only after sanctions are passed, which will not likely happen.

 

[zinfamous]

I dont have to agree with everything he says. He has been rather unhinged lately

lol @ "lately."

 

[jpiniero]

So apparently we are at the "Trade Talks are going well" part of the cycle.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So apparently we are at the "Trade Talks are going well" part of the cycle.

Yeah no. The Chinese have effectively called Trump a liar. Gold / Silver rallies on a question of credibility along with record low on 10 year bond, yeilding much lower than the 2 year bond......the "inverted yield curve".

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Run Felix! Gold is fake, prices will plummet!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VI0DD

 

[FelixDeCat]

Run Felix! Gold is fake, prices will plummet!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VI0DD

What the article was about was real gold being stamped with reputable producers credentials, who guarantee content, purity and weight. Therefore you might not get what one of those producers stand behind. Although its pretty easy to test quality and content.

 

[FelixDeCat]

lol @ the stupid stock market

"the Chinese want a trade deal!!!!"

This is like the 30th time this year we have played this stupid game.

Deal? No deal. Ok...tariffs! Deal? No deal. More tariffs!! Deal? Lets talk! Market rallies. No deal, and we retaliate! Market tanks.
Deal? No deal. Lets talk next month. Ok. Deal? Ok heres a deal....no wait, we changed our mind. More tariffs then.

Deal?

Its like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. He falls for it every fucking time.

 

[KB]

The algos are running wall street. They buy the market up until they reluctantly drag retail investors in, then sell until retail investors flee. Rinse and repeat.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The algos are running wall street. They buy the market up until they reluctantly drag retail investors in, then sell until retail investors flee. Rinse and repeat.

So far its looking like another up day for metals and a tiny downtick for stocks tomorrow.

We shall see.

 

[dasherHampton]

The algos are running wall street. They buy the market up until they reluctantly drag retail investors in, then sell until retail investors flee. Rinse and repeat.

Machines are controlling the options market as well. It's changed drastically in the past year.