Normally that would be the case, but companies aren't using the low interest rates in expanding or the typical things that would lead to expanding the economy. They are using it to buy back stock.
Normally that would be the case, but companies aren't using the low interest rates in expanding or the typical things that would lead to expanding the economy. They are using it to buy back stock.
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,274
- 2,789
- 126
As predicted, the market is taking a dump. Hopefully it goes back up ......so I can buy more cheap puts. 
Last edited:
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,274
- 2,789
- 126
Well that was an interesting week! The next two should be interesting. My guess? Stocks down, bonds / gold up, speculation rampant!
....of course, I could be wrong.
....of course, I could be wrong.
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,274
- 2,789
- 126
If I tell you exactly what price the QQQ's will be next week (either higher or lower), wouldn't you put all your money on that trade?
Here's the problem.....just because at some point that day, the QQQs will hit that price ....and now you have 100 puts (lets say $10,000 that expire worthless if you wrong), you would be under intense pressure to ACT despite the foreknowledge of price....for fear of losing everything...if the market appears to be headed in the wrong direction. You would begin to doubt the prediction. You would take your loss, lick your wounds and move on.
Just knowing the price is not even enough. Its still very difficult to predict the reaction and free will of men, algos, fear and greed.
Here is a good video about free will and "knowing" the future:
Last edited:
- Sep 25, 2001
- 29,391
- 2,738
- 126
oil yeah..oil dropping like a rock!
sell?
or hold till after the EIA's oil report weds morning?
edit: I held
edit2: im triple shorting.
I use dwt instead of usod or oild because its so much easier to instantly google the chart.
I could also do wtid but it only tracks wti.
dwt tracks both wti and brent oil prices.
edit3:
dwt expense Ratio = 1.5%
just found out oild expense ratio is .49% (https://etfdb.com/themes/leveraged-energy-etfs/#complete-list__expenses&sort_name=assets_under_management&sort_order=desc&page=1
next time I want to play leveraged oil, i'll do OILD
edit4:
and incase anyone's curious, here' the diff between all 4 of these leveraged funds:
https://www.etftrends.com/leveraged-inverse-channel/five-3x-leveraged-oil-etfs-get-slick-trading/amp/
Last edited:
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,274
- 2,789
- 126
Predicting the price of oil is a slippery business, but I think a relief rally is around the corner.
Long term however, oil is going the way of the dinosaurs .....oh wait....
Long term however, oil is going the way of the dinosaurs .....oh wait....
I'm going to abstain from any P&N based discussion - but if you have hope for any 3rd world countries to develop..... Oil isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Thinking otherwise is crazy IMO. But hey - maybe I'm wrong.
Thinking otherwise is crazy IMO. But hey - maybe I'm wrong.
zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,994
- 31,557
- 146
sure, transporting goods there, but there's no supportable thesis that could argue that any developing nation has to start at the first technology tier in a game of Civilization, compared to their 3-era-advanced world neighbors. ...lol, the knowledge and trade is there. It's more expensive to deliver, far, far, far more complicated for many reasons, compared to what will be cheaper, portable, easy energy to the smaller towns that will make for modern developing, developed nations. Hell, transport even...so much of private business going into delivery to remote communities--drones, modern dirigibles...that the typical infrastructure development (paved roads that bring the necessary support--stations, mechanics, regular maintenance...which actually won't happen in these places) probably won't be as big a factor as many prognosticators are probably still putting into their pre-digital, last-gen predictions. ...technology has just improved so much that the math behind these classic demographic models has currently hit one of those logarithmic scales for potential....er well, except politics stifles much, haha.
But yeah, oil isn't going anywhere, it just doesn't have sustainable value as the type of commodity that it it currently categorized under. Oil is in everything, and will remain in our plastics and moving metal parts and what not, but it is not going to be a reasonable option (price competition and convenience, cleanliness) for energy by 20 years from now. (but again, material design changes as well--how often does plastic composition/design change...where does it go--I have absolutely no idea about plastics/material science, which is why I'm asking, hah...so much of the classic plastic materials (spoons and forks) are now ~corn starchy, polymer lattice something something that biodegrades? I don't get it)
Last edited:
- Sep 25, 2001
- 29,391
- 2,738
- 126
$55.60/barrel support level was breached yesterday.oil yeah..oil dropping like a rock!
sell?
or hold till after the EIA's oil report weds morning?
edit: I held
edit2: im triple shorting.
I use dwt instead of usod or oild because its so much easier to instantly google the chart.
I could also do wtid but it only tracks wti.
dwt tracks both wti and brent oil prices.
edit3:
dwt expense Ratio = 1.5%
just found out oild expense ratio is .49% (https://etfdb.com/themes/leveraged-energy-etfs/#complete-list__expenses&sort_name=assets_under_management&sort_order=desc&page=1
next time I want to play leveraged oil, i'll do OILD
edit4:
and incase anyone's curious, here' the diff between all 4 of these leveraged funds:
https://www.etftrends.com/leveraged-inverse-channel/five-3x-leveraged-oil-etfs-get-slick-trading/amp/
next support levels 53.93, 52.71, and 50.48.
right now oil is at 53.69!
drop baby drop!!!
edit:
tomorrow is EIA's report on oil stockpiles.
analysts consensus is 1.1 million bpd build for crude for the week ended Sept. 27, which is on top of the nearly 3.5 million barrels over the past two weeks.
sweet.. oil surplus is building which should mean oil dropping even more tomorrow.
will hold overnight and probably sell tommorow
Last edited:
- Sep 25, 2001
- 29,391
- 2,738
- 126
Schwab to drop commissions on U.S. stock, ETF and options trades
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/schwab-shares-slide-premarket-after-news-it-will-drop-commissions-on-us-stock-etf-and-options-trades-2019-10-01
Rival brokerages stocks got slammed.
td ameritrade down -25%!!!
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/schwab-shares-slide-premarket-after-news-it-will-drop-commissions-on-us-stock-etf-and-options-trades-2019-10-01
Rival brokerages stocks got slammed.
td ameritrade down -25%!!!
Schwab to drop commissions on U.S. stock, ETF and options trades
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/schwab-shares-slide-premarket-after-news-it-will-drop-commissions-on-us-stock-etf-and-options-trades-2019-10-01
Rival brokerages stocks got slammed.
td ameritrade down -25%!!!
Hmmm - Is this a first from the major investment companies? Places like Vanguard and Fidelity have commission free trades for THEIR equity funds, but for random corporate stocks there are still fees.
The only exception are the likes of Robinhood.
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,274
- 2,789
- 126
- Sep 25, 2001
- 29,391
- 2,738
- 126
EIA's report says stockpiles were double analyst predictions.
oil tumbles to 52.38.
52.71 support line breached.
next support level 50.48.
drop baby drop!
PlanetJosh
Golden Member
- May 6, 2013
- 1,814
- 143
- 106
So is the shorting in general by the posters here working out today or yesterday? Looks like some of it is. I guess bragging about any money you made shorting stocks today is no big deal because it seems easy to successfully short during such a big market decline.
So for what's it's worth I shorted Apple today and made a little over $180. Didn't borrow shares, I sold all the Apple shares I've owned for years. Sold at $220.40 and about half an hour later bought the same number of Apple shares at $219.80. So the total value doesn't make me rich.
That was the first time I ever shorted anything. I don't plan on shorting again, I'll just day trade long on Apple with my margin account at Well Fargo brokerage. Preferably buying with cash as soon as I can deposit enough in my brokerage cash.
Edit - well I could've made an easy $500+ if I had the balls to hang on for another 2 or 3 hours.
So for what's it's worth I shorted Apple today and made a little over $180. Didn't borrow shares, I sold all the Apple shares I've owned for years. Sold at $220.40 and about half an hour later bought the same number of Apple shares at $219.80. So the total value doesn't make me rich.
That was the first time I ever shorted anything. I don't plan on shorting again, I'll just day trade long on Apple with my margin account at Well Fargo brokerage. Preferably buying with cash as soon as I can deposit enough in my brokerage cash.
Edit - well I could've made an easy $500+ if I had the balls to hang on for another 2 or 3 hours.
Last edited:
Tesla delivered 97k vehicles last quarter which is more than the previous quarter but less than expectations. Stock down 4% after hours.
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,274
- 2,789
- 126
Posted September 20th:
....and its only October 2nd.
Next time you listen to Felix!
....and its only October 2nd.
Next time you listen to Felix!
- Sep 25, 2001
- 29,391
- 2,738
- 126
psst.. look at my posts.
I started shorting oil LAST WEEK!
and oil opened down -1% this morning.
sweet!
but selling dwt when it hits $6.70.
I think the $50.48/barrel support line will hold
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,274
- 2,789
- 126
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,274
- 2,789
- 126
On average, markets lose 1% in October over the last 100 years. We spent part of the week bombing and the last part rallying.
zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,994
- 31,557
- 146
serious question: how many of those Octobers also saw POTUS impeachment investigations and hearings? Generally, this is the kind of unicorn situation that I think will throw any normal seasonal movement or predictability out of whack.
...conversely, I wonder if there is market data for the last 2 big POTUS impeachment periods? Wonder if that is worth looking into. I'm legit curious.
On the other hand, it's been chaotic but overall quite stagnant over the last two years, so maybe not much will really change in the end. I wonder if a potential 2 following months of chaos will actually be distinguishable over the last 2 years' window? :\
TRENDING THREADS
-
Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)- Started by DisEnchantment
- Replies: 25K
-
Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes + WCL Discussion Threads
- Started by Tigerick
- Replies: 24K
-
Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread- Started by TheF34RChannel
- Replies: 23K
-
-
Facebook
Twitter