***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,158
272
126
Holy Carp! SLV (silver ETF) jumps 4.375% .... silver spot price up +$1.20 from $18.20 to $19.40 an ounce on signs economy headed for recession.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
25,232
292
126
oil is rising.
time to short at end of month, just like last year (sept 2018)
 

Ken g6

Programming Moderator, Elite Member
Moderator
Dec 11, 1999
14,588
1,539
55
oil is rising.
time to short at end of month, just like last year (sept 2018)
Better hope no hurricanes shut down the Gulf of Mexico if you do that.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,158
272
126
Welp, Chairman Powell has indicated what appears to be a neutral stance on the need for more rate cuts. The metals complex (gold, silver, platinum, etc.) went into free-fall the last two trading sessions, with silver being hit the hardest. :(

I suspect now the speculation will be that there will be no unnecessary cuts in September or October, especially with continuing strong economic data coming in.

In addition, the expectation that China will reach some sort of deal in October has been priced in, when it is highly unlikely any deal will be reached. Remember, China made a concession earlier this year then walked away from it.

Finally, we have the worst month for stocks right around the corner.

Lets see what happens. :)
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
6,626
711
126
I suspect now the speculation will be that there will be no unnecessary cuts in September or October, especially with continuing strong economic data coming in.
Still 91% odds for a cut next time, and 58% for a second cut in October. You have to understand, they are cutting to prop up the stock market and not any economic reason.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
96,892
11,681
136
Welp, Chairman Powell has indicated what appears to be a neutral stance on the need for more rate cuts. The metals complex (gold, silver, platinum, etc.) went into free-fall the last two trading sessions, with silver being hit the hardest. :(

I suspect now the speculation will be that there will be no unnecessary cuts in September or October, especially with continuing strong economic data coming in.

In addition, the expectation that China will reach some sort of deal in October has been priced in, when it is highly unlikely any deal will be reached. Remember, China made a concession earlier this year then walked away from it.

Finally, we have the worst month for stocks right around the corner.

Lets see what happens. :)
Median income is flat over the last year despite previous 4 years of steady gains (what were those tax cuts supposed to do again? Oh yeah--the top 1% are vastly more wealthy! yay!).


the tariff situation is actually getting worse, because middle america is starting to take it in the chin with Trump's tariff's crushing their purchasing power. ...all this despite near record-low unemployment.

No, the data coming in is not great.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,158
272
126
Median income is flat over the last year despite previous 4 years of steady gains (what were those tax cuts supposed to do again? Oh yeah--the top 1% are vastly more wealthy! yay!).


the tariff situation is actually getting worse, because middle america is starting to take it in the chin with Trump's tariff's crushing their purchasing power. ...all this despite near record-low unemployment.

No, the data coming in is not great.
TBH there has not been much impact on the consumer. In fact, the consumer is often cited as the reason for strength in the economy. Just watch CNBC, they will tell you this. Its oft repeated by economists and big money managers.

We must make China stop its unfair trade practices. We must also also diversify supply chains AWAY from China. The only way to make this happen is by economic force. China had grown so powerful that they were able to take advantage of us at will. This must end.

Weening us off China will bring pain for sure, but the outcome will be worth it. Look at the big picture.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,158
272
126
Metals rallied bigly today on European Central Bank easing and proposed QE. However, by the end of the day metals sold off as the measures were seen as "inadequate".

$20 billion per month bond buying - "inadequate".

*eye roll*

Nothing but spoiled brats!
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
96,892
11,681
136
TBH there has not been much impact on the consumer. In fact, the consumer is often cited as the reason for strength in the economy. Just watch CNBC, they will tell you this. Its oft repeated by economists and big money managers.

We must make China stop its unfair trade practices. We must also also diversify supply chains AWAY from China. The only way to make this happen is by economic force. China had grown so powerful that they were able to take advantage of us at will. This must end.

Weening us off China will bring pain for sure, but the outcome will be worth it. Look at the big picture.
Honest question: Why is China being the USA of c. 1915-1948 a bad thing for humans?

There might be $1.2billion people that disagree with some pissant 400million people....just saying, bropants.

(not that I disagree from my perspective, but I ask from another perspective--that's one of those tools that proper education unleashes for you)
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,158
272
126
Honest question: Why is China being the USA of c. 1915-1948 a bad thing for humans?

There might be $1.2billion people that disagree with some pissant 400million people....just saying, bropants.

(not that I disagree from my perspective, but I ask from another perspective--that's one of those tools that proper education unleashes for you)
If I understand correctly, you are asking why a larger market of people should care about the actions of a smaller market of people against them? Our per economy is the biggest in the world. Besides, there are billions of other humans to trade with. Those that wish to trade fairly. Perhaps you cannot always have completely fair trade.

If you are implying that America once treated everyone else the way China treats us now (badly), then I will point you to the old addage "two wongs do not make a right".
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
6,626
711
126
Odds of a rate cut have fallen to just 80%, so there is some creeping doubt that the cut is happening. You wanna gamble that they don't cut, could buy some SPY/QQQ puts and clean up if they do indeed not cut rates.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,158
272
126
Odds of a rate cut have fallen to just 80%, so there is some creeping doubt that the cut is happening. You wanna gamble that they don't cut, could buy some SPY/QQQ puts and clean up if they do indeed not cut rates.
I suspect at least .25, with no outlook. I would have preferred none. The market is again approaching all time highs and the economy is doing quite well, thank you.

Nevertheless, nothing has been settled with China despite the market already pricing in a permanent deal.

The market is due for a pullback.

Tensions in the Middle East will be good for oil and gold. Although I think this whole thing was just a ruse to gin up oil prices. The Saudis probably signaled to the "rebels" they would allow an attack of aging equipment in need of upgrading anyway so as swing oil price momentum upwards.

Then Iran says "its ready for war!!!!" Pffft. They too want higher oil prices despite sanctions. Unfortunately they view their population as expendable whereas we do not. Despite what people think Trump has never had a taste for war, always trying to bring about peace, even with Iran.
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
6,626
711
126
So the Fed did cut rates by a quarter. No change is the favorite for next time, but only slightly. Seems more like December for another cut. One more cut might be all Wall Street gets though, so we'll have to see if they are OK with that.
 
Nov 8, 2012
12,645
1,454
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Median income is flat over the last year despite previous 4 years of steady gains (what were those tax cuts supposed to do again? Oh yeah--the top 1% are vastly more wealthy! yay!).
Globalism baby. That median income used to be something that was between the middle class of US and only that. Now you have to compete the middle-class globally.

I honestly think there is nothing that can be done there. You could try regulations (e.g. increase minimum wage) but it will only be temporary and serve to make outsourcing/automation be completed quicker.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
96,892
11,681
136
Globalism baby. That median income used to be something that was between the middle class of US and only that. Now you have to compete the middle-class globally.

I honestly think there is nothing that can be done there. You could try regulations (e.g. increase minimum wage) but it will only be temporary and serve to make outsourcing/automation be completed quicker.
I'm talking about the US median income which is only looking at US salaries. It isn't globalism (which generally makes things cheaper to buy, and for the employers, mindless automatons cheaper to employ while they generally get wealthier and wealthier).

It's explicitly the Reagan effect. No longer punish the bosses for keeping that money, no longer incentivize them to put it back into their employees pension funds and their business, just let them keep it and by the grace of their pure hearts, they will just "pay it back somehow."

George HW called it "voodoo economics" He was very much anti-Reagan, and the last real conservative that the GOP has ever seen. It's why he had to do the right thing and raise taxes during his term to buffer the blowback from that voodoo horseshit that, to this day, the GOP still worships like the fatted calf.

Your salary and my salary isn't going to newly-enriched blue collar, middle class workers on the other side of the ocean; it's just going to the same bosses that have been here all along, and they are keeping it.

The US hasn't seen this current 20% wealth gap from the top 5% to the bottom 95% since 1927-1929. This 20% gap happens all around the world, just ahead of major depressions and bloody, bloody revolutions. If one of those don't happen now, it would be the first time in human history that what we are currently experiencing doesn't lead to bloody revolution or severe, nation-crippling depression.
 
Nov 8, 2012
12,645
1,454
126
I'm talking about the US median income which is only looking at US salaries. It isn't globalism (which generally makes things cheaper to buy, and for the employers, mindless automatons cheaper to employ while they generally get wealthier and wealthier).

It's explicitly the Reagan effect. No longer punish the bosses for keeping that money, no longer incentivize them to put it back into their employees pension funds and their business, just let them keep it and by the grace of their pure hearts, they will just "pay it back somehow."

George HW called it "voodoo economics" He was very much anti-Reagan, and the last real conservative that the GOP has ever seen. It's why he had to do the right thing and raise taxes during his term to buffer the blowback from that voodoo horseshit that, to this day, the GOP still worships like the fatted calf.

Your salary and my salary isn't going to newly-enriched blue collar, middle class workers on the other side of the ocean; it's just going to the same bosses that have been here all along, and they are keeping it.

The US hasn't seen this current 20% wealth gap from the top 5% to the bottom 95% since 1927-1929. This 20% gap happens all around the world, just ahead of major depressions and bloody, bloody revolutions. If one of those don't happen now, it would be the first time in human history that what we are currently experiencing doesn't lead to bloody revolution or severe, nation-crippling depression.
Right - and I'm saying that unlike 30+ years ago, the median income of americans is now based on not just the competition of other americans with your skills - but also the skills of foreign labor.

Anyone that simply goes to work and just "does work" with little to no interaction with others outside of some emails is at a high risk of outsource/automation. My first job out of college that paid around $45k was outsourced 2.5 years after I started it. I had to pick myself up and switch industries + skills. Side note: The more I've moved in life the more I've noticed that the more my job interacts with other jobs the safer it is. The job I was outsourced for was a "sit at your desk and do work" kind of job. All my follow-up positions have been much higher paying, but also I have to deal with a lot more people with calls, in-person, etc...


This isn't a reagan-economics, it's a few things:

1. Corporations are global now. They aren't "American companies" anymore. This is sad, but it's just the way it is. What incentive does any company have to stay in one country? Through acquisitions, mergers, buy-outs, etc... over the years, all countries (as far as companies are concerned) are in bed with eachother.

2. Profit and competition says you must perform that work by the cheapest means necessary. Otherwise, your at a high risk of losing because your competition will do it and you will end up bankrupt from losing.


the fact is that management jobs are generally safer because it's hard to outsource management. It's also hard to outsource things like people-facing jobs because...well.... It's kind of hard to talk professionally with an Indian accent over the phone when everyone is saying "What?" and "Can you please repeat that?" a bunch of times heh. Something tells me that there will come a day for that as well though heh.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
5,798
424
126

This is a column worth subscribing to. I get emails from them but they also have an rss feed.

Here's a blurb about the author

"
John Authers is a senior editor for markets. Before Bloomberg, he spent 29 years with the Financial Times, where he was head of the Lex Column and chief markets commentator. He is the author of “The Fearful Rise of Markets” and other books."
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,158
272
126
Im guessing that this Chinese delegation visit will not result in much progress.

...and the stock market mistakingly priced a deal into market.

If no progress is made, watch out! October is right around the corner.

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jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
6,626
711
126
Im guessing that this Chinese delegation visit will not result in much progress.

...and the stock market mistakingly priced a deal into market.

If no progress is made, watch out! October is right around the corner.
There is no reason for China to make a deal. They can't be pricing that in, that would be silly. I guess it's more good business for the vol bots.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,158
272
126
There is no reason for China to make a deal. They can't be pricing that in, that would be silly. I guess it's more good business for the vol bots.
We were near all time highs again and gold, silver and miners sold off bigly the last two weeks. Now the opposite is about to happen - the market will now have to discount hopes for at least a partial deal and gold / silver will go back up to all time highs.

No deal progress is bad news for ETF indexes the DIA, QQQ and SPDR and great news for metal ETF's like NUGT, GLD, GDX, SLV. Now that the Chinese delagation cancelled the trip to the farm belt in hopes of buidling good will and instead flew back to China, that spooked the sh*t out of the markets on Friday.
 
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jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
6,626
711
126
FWIW, I went to a mall late Friday night and the Apple store was so packed, they had a line setup to get into the store. A small line, but still, it was like 8:30.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
5,798
424
126
If interest rates are going to zero or below (like say Germany), that means there's still plenty of headroom in the bond market.

Plus, low rates stimulate the economy. So even if there's a recession, it should theoretically be mitigated to some degree.
 

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