***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

[s0me0nesmind1]

serious question: how many of those Octobers also saw POTUS impeachment investigations and hearings? Generally, this is the kind of unicorn situation that I think will throw any normal seasonal movement or predictability out of whack.

...conversely, I wonder if there is market data for the last 2 big POTUS impeachment periods? Wonder if that is worth looking into. I'm legit curious.

On the other hand, it's been chaotic but overall quite stagnant over the last two years, so maybe not much will really change in the end. I wonder if a potential 2 following months of chaos will actually be distinguishable over the last 2 years' window? :\

On a serious note, I honestly think nothing will happen in October. If anything some random economical based news will pop up on some random month in the next 6 months. When or what that is? No clue.

I would like to believe that what I perceive will become fact, but even for myself it's not enough to put all my 401k assets into cash or anything.

 

[jpiniero]

serious question: how many of those Octobers also saw POTUS impeachment investigations and hearings? Generally, this is the kind of unicorn situation that I think will throw any normal seasonal movement or predictability out of whack.

IMO, the thing to think about would be if the Fed/Wall Street decide now is the time to get stock market valuations back in order and stop pumping. Especially since Trump has been the biggest cheerleader for the pumping.

 

[zinfamous]

IMO, the thing to think about would be if the Fed/Wall Street decide now is the time to get stock market valuations back in order and stop pumping. Especially since Trump has been the biggest cheerleader for the pumping.

hmm, yeah that would be a good indicator if this "stuff" has an observable effect on the way the market moves in the short term.

 

[jpiniero]

On a serious note, I honestly think nothing will happen in October. If anything some random economical based news will pop up on some random month in the next 6 months. When or what that is? No clue.

Yeah, Nixon's took several months. But the Nixon hearings were at the beginning of a term and not the end.

 

[FelixDeCat]

serious question: how many of those Octobers also saw POTUS impeachment investigations and hearings? Generally, this is the kind of unicorn situation that I think will throw any normal seasonal movement or predictability out of whack.

...conversely, I wonder if there is market data for the last 2 big POTUS impeachment periods? Wonder if that is worth looking into. I'm legit curious.

On the other hand, it's been chaotic but overall quite stagnant over the last two years, so maybe not much will really change in the end. I wonder if a potential 2 following months of chaos will actually be distinguishable over the last 2 years' window? :\

When you take a long term average, anything outside the norm is weighted back to normal with the accumulation of typical annual movements. I think they call this "reversion to the mean".

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sadly, all this political nonsense is distracting from the important mission of putting America back in a favorable trade position with China who has had the better side of most deals for a very long time since Globalists wanted it that way.

Sure, America's growth into a service economy vs. manufacturing with CEOs reaping the most the benefit with outrageous pay, stock options and perks has been great for 1%'ers. But there is a large amount of Americans who would make more money if production were brought back here, who might have better wages and longer term opportunities.

Not everyone is smart enough to get a degree in IT or business that benefits from a job in the service sector. But they might earn a very good salary in a skilled trade. When all the manufacturing was farmed out to China a long time ago it strengthened their hand, because now they leveraged their power to demand tecnhology transfers, forced partnerships with majority local ownership, and now spying by the PLA. Not to mentioned the giant trade imbalance that has gone on for decades.

Trust me, there will be NO DEAL (excepting a token one) mid October. The reason is that America is slowly adapting to life without China, which is a good thing. And China thinks it can outlive Trump despite being on the very bad end of the stick in the meantime. Trump will also not give up any gains he has made in weening America off China.

It was time to tame the Dragon.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Cramer says sell, S&P due for a pullback to 2600 (%10 sell off imminent)....or is it?!

 

[JEDI]

Cramer says sell, S&P due for a pullback to 2600 (%10 sell off imminent)....or is it?!

how do I use options to short the S&P?
I have $100k...

or practice 1st with a play acct and wait till next opportunity?

 

[Sgt. York]

There's no thrill if you don't jump in with real money.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Cramer says sell, S&P due for a pullback to 2600 (%10 sell off imminent)....or is it?!

I would be willing to wager money that if one does the opposite of what Cramer says you would be better off monetarily.


That guy is koo-koo for cocopuffs.

 

[FelixDeCat]

how do I use options to short the S&P?
I have $100k...

or practice 1st with a play acct and wait till next opportunity?

Wisdom says to take anyone else's words with a grain of salt. If you can access the show from last night, then you can hear the reasoning for the down call on the S&P. He uses the analysis performed by an expert who has been right more often than wrong. Also a rally is not out of the question, so use your own judgement.

As I mentioned in a previous post, nothing is ever guaranteed nor certain because its hard to guess the reactions of the free will of men (or their algorithms), which is I guess is why God gave us free will. Kind of like when Noah built The Ark because God warned him of a flood and the entire city ridiculed him endlessly for a long time while he built it. When the rain started, it was just rain. Then it would not stop raining and the flooding started. Only his faith in God kept him on course despite what Im sure were many self doubts and hardships along the way.

See the video regarding free will vs. foreknowledge.

 

[FelixDeCat]

You dont have to trade options. You can simply buy inverse ETF and be done with it.

 

[zinfamous]

Wisdom says to take anyone else's words with a grain of salt. If you can access the show from last night, then you can hear the reasoning for the down call on the S&P. He uses the analysis performed by an expert who has been right more often than wrong. Also a rally is not out of the question, so use your own judgement.

As I mentioned in a previous post, nothing is ever guaranteed nor certain because its hard to guess the reactions of the free will of men (or their algorithms), which is I guess is why God gave us free will. Kind of like when Noah built The Ark because God warned him of a flood and the entire city ridiculed him endlessly for a long time while he built it. When the rain started, it was just rain. Then it would not stop raining and the flooding started. Only his faith in God kept him on course despite what Im sure were many self doubts and hardships along the way.

See the video regarding free will vs. foreknowledge.

No, you are not Noah, my dude.

 

[FelixDeCat]

No, you are not Noah, my dude.

There is a little bit of Noah in all of us, just waiting to come out. Foreknowledge and faith is everywhere although not all of it is spiritually based. For example, I think gold will ultimately hit $2,000 an ounce (current spot $1510). Back in January I was having dinner with my brother and a little birdy told me to start buying gold, so I began taking a position in the $1275 range. Its been a very bumpy ride and I have sold all the early purchases. Will it dip down to $1,450 or lower before going back up towards $2,000? Hmmm....

Another example would be peoples faith in AMD when it rose from $7 per share to $35 based on their product development and new leader a couple of years ago. It was a bumpy ride, but those fortunate enough to ride it from the low to the recent high were rewarded. Question is - do you keep holding? Will it hit $99 one day but fall 30% in the meatime? Do you keep the faith? Hmmm......

Last week I bought three 1oz Aussie 'Roos for $1529 after dealer markup (dealers have to eat too). I used a card that gave me 1.5%, a 200 bonus and 0% for 15 months. The final purchase price was $1432 / oz.

 

[JEDI]

Cramer says sell, S&P due for a pullback to 2600 (%10 sell off imminent)....or is it?!

glad I didn't start shorting the s&p 500 yesterday.
it's still climbing today

 

[Sgt. York]

Isn't Cramer wrong 99% of the time?

 

[zinfamous]

There is a little bit of Noah in all of us, just waiting to come out. Foreknowledge and faith is everywhere although not all of it is spiritually based. For example, I think gold will ultimately hit $2,000 an ounce (current spot $1510). Back in January I was having dinner with my brother and a little birdy told me to start buying gold, so I began taking a position in the $1275 range. Its been a very bumpy ride and I have sold all the early purchases. Will it dip down to $1,450 or lower before going back up towards $2,000? Hmmm....

Another example would be peoples faith in AMD when it rose from $7 per share to $35 based on their product development and new leader a couple of years ago. It was a bumpy ride, but those fortunate enough to ride it from the low to the recent high were rewarded. Question is - do you keep holding? Will it hit $99 one day but fall 30% in the meatime? Do you keep the faith? Hmmm......

Last week I bought three 1oz Aussie 'Roos for $1529 after dealer markup (dealers have to eat too). I used a card that gave me 1.5%, a 200 bonus and 0% for 15 months. The final purchase price was $1432 / oz.

I kept my faith until the $35 mark and sold half of my shares (initial, only purchase). It got me a 300%+ turn on my total initial purpose (so on half of the investment; so share-share gain was about 700% when I sold those).

for the remaining half, well it's all just profit at this point. Maybe sell next year.

 

[zinfamous]

Isn't Cramer wrong 99% of the time?

yeah, but that 1% is so so so sweet!

Also the cocaine.

 

[KB]

Trade optimism has the DOW up again today. I don't think we get a trade deal, but I know if I sell longs and start shorting, the trade deal will happen.

 

[JEDI]

Trade optimism has the DOW up again today. I don't think we get a trade deal, but I know if I sell longs and start shorting, the trade deal will happen.

oil going up, again.
I got stopped out of my $100k short.

oh well, more $ for shorting the S&P 500...

 

[jpiniero]

Trade optimism has the DOW up again today. I don't think we get a trade deal, but I know if I sell longs and start shorting, the trade deal will happen.

I don't know why the PRC continues to play along, unless they are making $$$$ on the vol trade.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The market appears to be counting its trade chickens before a deal is hatched.

 

[IronWing]

Waiting for the Friday afternoon pissing in the punch bowl by Trump.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Waiting for the Friday afternoon pissing in the punch bowl by Trump.

Its Chinas intransigence that is the source of consternation. And Trump is like bulldog. So yes, he has no fear kicking ass and taking names in support of our righteous cause against trade injustice.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Interesting... Just got this news headline

Trump says US.. China have reached substantial phase-1 trade deal

That was quick.... but a certain president has been known to exaggerate things.... so... yeaaaah, we will see? Anyone have anything else?