***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

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rcpratt

rcpratt

Lifer
Jul 2, 2009
10,433
110
116
SunnyD said:
I think he's pulling thy leg.
Click to expand...
Thy leg doesn't really care, since thy leg has no stake.

If that's the case, I don't really think posting false news/happenings/trades to this thread is a very fun idea. Regardless of stupid, petty, emotional feelings that a bunch of people here have towards certain securities, whether positive or negative.
 
Hugo Drax

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
5,647
47
91
chusteczka said:
Yeah, I just purchased 2000 shares at $6.60 ...
at 1:19 Eastern time.
The price continues to move.

And $28 is far too much.
Click to expand...

13,200 bucks position. So what is the max loss your willing to take before folding. And max gain you are willing to take before taking your chips and cashing in?
 
T

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
4
76
Hugo should be happy. Watching Vega absolutely disappear on OCZ.

The lack of announcement today is great for the option shorts.
 
R

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
actually this drop is a good sign, if the price continue to go up all the way up to the BO announcement, what fun is that?
 
InverseOfNeo

InverseOfNeo

Diamond Member
Nov 17, 2000
3,719
0
0
In with a small position @6.67. Still somewhat kicking myself for not getting my head out of the sand last week.
 
C

chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,399
3
71
Hugo Drax said:
13,200 bucks position. So what is the max loss your willing to take before folding. And max gain you are willing to take before taking your chips and cashing in?
Click to expand...

You are correct that this is a large amount for me. This is about 2/3 of my trading funds, and I am taking a risk. It maybe a bit foolish but I am in now and had enough stability not to jump back in at $6.80.

Due to the wash rule of trading funds not yet settled, my position is stuck for the next few days. My inability to pull out may make this position even more foolish. However, now I cannot sell when I get nervous. This may be a good thing.

I typically sell at a 6-10% increase. That is mostly why I sold Friday afternoon after the 29% increase in a day.

I do not have a solid answer for your question regarding how much loss I am willing to take before selling. My plan is to hold for now.

There was an article that mentioned OCZ was worth about $300million, and OCZ declined Seagate's initial offer of $700million. Now they are back at the table ... Seagate could walk away but they have returned to negotiate.

The $700million offer / 68 million shares provides a $10.30 share price. Using that as a stable base provided the comfort to make the purchase.


Edit: Earlier this morning, I mentioned the possibility of OCZ dropping to $6.80 and possibly even down to $6.50. Apparently, the drop down to $6.55 was my buy point. I was waiting for this and when it hit, I bought.


Edit2: I actually like the products this company makes and think they are doing a good job with their investment towards growth. It will not hurt me to become a shareholder through the holiday season.


Edit3: I am aware the downside may include the share price dropping back down to $4.50 along with the possible share dilution of another 20 million shares to cover expenses. However, I see a positive holiday season for them and more possible buyers, such as Micron. Yes, they are leveraged, but I think things will go well ... mostly because I like their products and see a positive retail holiday season for them in the next 6 months.
 
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SunnyD

SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,675
146
106
www.neftastic.com
Down roughly 10% at close. 1 hour till Seagate talks.... this should be fun. Who's ready to lose their shirt?

Edit: Briefly hit $5.10/share immediately after hours...
 
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R

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
OCZ has dropped low enough that I bought some shares and a few puts. hope I'll win either way! ;)
 
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C

chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,399
3
71
SunnyD said:
Down roughly 10% at close. 1 hour till Seagate talks.... this should be fun. Who's ready to lose their shirt?

Edit: Briefly hit $5.10/share immediately after hours...
Click to expand...

After Friday's gain, $5.15 is my break even point.
That would be a hell of a way to lose a 30% gain though.

After hours trading seems to operate on different rules and assumptions. After seeing it rise to $8.50 on Friday to open at a more reasonable $7.50 today, I hold little faith in swings occurring after hours.
 
SunnyD

SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,675
146
106
www.neftastic.com
So here's a valid question that should have little impact on what happens for the next 50 minutes.

Assuming Seagate does announce a deal with OCZ - what is the SOP for OCZ shareholders at that point? Just sell? Have to wait for conversion? Seagate cuts you a check? What's the deal?
 
D

darkxshade

Lifer
Mar 31, 2001
13,749
6
81
SunnyD said:
Assuming Seagate does announce a deal with OCZ - what is the SOP for OCZ shareholders at that point? Just sell? Have to wait for conversion? Seagate cuts you a check? What's the deal?
Click to expand...

For one thing, an announcement doesn't mean anything. The [majority]shareholders still have to vote on it. I might be wrong though. I don't follow how corporate actions work but I was always under the impression that what you will get out of today is whether or not STX made an offer and its terms. No more, no less.
 
T

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
4
76
SunnyD said:
So here's a valid question that should have little impact on what happens for the next 50 minutes.

Assuming Seagate does announce a deal with OCZ - what is the SOP for OCZ shareholders at that point? Just sell? Have to wait for conversion? Seagate cuts you a check? What's the deal?
Click to expand...

Merger or acquisitions will differ based on the terms, whether it be a certain number of shares of the acquirer or cash.

If it is cash the acquiree shares will trade like a present value discount bond, with settlement date being the date of the acquisition, minus a bit of discount for a failed acquisition.

If cash the shares will trade as a discount to the acquirers do to the discount of the failed merger. Event driven hedges will make sure the premium stays close. Short the acquirer, long the acquiree.

If it is share based you will end up with shares of the acquirer.
 
SunnyD

SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,675
146
106
www.neftastic.com
The-Noid said:
Merger or acquisitions will differ based on the terms, whether it be a certain number of shares of the acquirer or cash.

If it is cash the acquiree shares will trade like a present value discount bond, with settlement date being the date of the acquisition, minus a bit of discount for a failed acquisition.

If cash the shares will trade as a discount to the acquirers do to the discount of the failed merger. Event driven hedges will make sure the premium stays close. Short the acquirer, long the acquiree.

If it is share based you will end up with shares of the acquirer.
Click to expand...

Okay, that makes sense. Mostly what I thought - I more wasn't sure on the terms of a straight cash deal than anything else.
 
SunnyD

SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,675
146
106
www.neftastic.com
Oh. I get it now. Seagate's FY12 and Q4 financials have already been released, and nobody sees anything with the letters "OCZ" in them. Doom and gloom.

What they missed in the pressers is the following:

Investor Communications

Seagate management will hold a public webcast today at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time on its Investor Relations website at www.seagate.com/investors . During today's conference call, the company will provide an outlook for its first fiscal quarter of 2013 and its view of the remainder of the calendar year, including key underlying assumptions. Seagate is planning an investor and analyst meeting on September 21, 2012 to discuss the Company's longer-term strategic plan.
Click to expand...

Man it's a pain in the ass to digest what the media throws at you.
 
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