***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[The-Noid]

"public" webcast. I don't see any issue. It's not limited to shareholders.

edit: you probably caught that as I was posting, eh?

No I attempt to not discuss specific stocks but concepts and news. That crossed the line...

 

[JTsyo]

Nothing about OCZ, but building their own SSDs with DENSBITS.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Got out of OCZ after hours @ my cost basis. What a letdown!

Listening to STX's conference call makes me believe that these big guys are just going to wipe out the small guys like OCZ, STEC, and maybe even FIO.

 

[Blades]

Nothing about OCZ, but building their own SSDs with DENSBITS.

This was known before OCZ rumors started. There are tons of heard mentality types on stocktwits crying up a storm.. I wish these little nubbers just stayed away and let ocz find a price of its own..

They obviously knew nothing about the industry.. STX and MRVL have been symbiotic in nature for a while... Samsung owns 6% of STX.. Throw in the Micron exec leading up SSD dev at STX.. That leaves OCZ (who has also been symbiotic with MRVL) to have a go at supplying the firmware.. thats the only tiny bit of possibility I see of this 'M&A'.. but damn those 'home gamers' are shittin on that Theo guy.. I really hope its true, as I would just love for them to have another bout of crying over how they sold their shares too early..

Hell, if they get too eager in their selling, I'll probably become the next LBO 'suitor'.. just kidding.. Although it would be nice to have a meaningful stake in company

 

[JTsyo]

"We don't do any comments on official policy on M&A until it's done," - STX CFO

hope yet?

 

[Michael]

Why would Seagate buy OCZ? Why would they even need them? Why would any major, established hard drive company need OCZ? They have the channel and the name, is there some massive rocket science to making an SSD that only OCZ owns the secret sauce for it?

Michael

 

[Blades]

Why would Seagate buy OCZ? Why would they even need them? Why would any major, established hard drive company need OCZ? They have the channel and the name, is there some massive rocket science to making an SSD that only OCZ owns the secret sauce for it?

Michael

They co-developed the Vertex 4 controller with Marvell - it is supposedly strong in areas where others (lsi, vanilla Marvell ctrlr) are weak. So, yes kinda.

You should totally make your own SSD tho.

Regarding the STX CFO statement - easily the most comment loaded no comment' I've read in a while. Could've been misinterpreted/typo contextual error tho.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Anyone bored? I'm looking at FDML and it is looking good. Tell me what you all think.

 

[akshatp]

OCZ down to 5.36 AH.. yeesh what a roller coaster. I was out at $5.50 last week before the run up and kicking myself.. Now. not so much.. even tho i probably would have bailed at around 7

 

[Arachnotronic]

Looking to get back in @ $4.50 - $4.75 and then if it tests 52wk lows, get in there.

I feel like an idiot for not selling my core @ $8.85 pre-market.

 

[Blades]

Everything was fine with my OCZ position. Cost basis around 4.7.. working its way back up to upper 4s, maybe lower 5s.. Who cares where it would've gone.. Things took a turn for the worse when the short bus stopped @ OCZ station and unloaded the buy on the buyout retail investors.. Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered. What a bunch of whiny cunts, blame everyone but themselves for their loss. Complaining about market manipulation - ironically, that was them.. leave it be dammit.. Put your interweb rumor-filter glasses on and judge for yourself what you are willing to pay to be a partial (although a very miniscule part) owner of OCZ.

Hopefully some bullshit pharma company will get their attention and they can pile back into their bus and drive wherever their greed takes them... push the stock up to crazy heights, get more and more greedy, have the roof cave in on them... whine.. blame.. rinse wash repeat.

 

[Blades]

Looking to get back in @ $4.50 - $4.75 and then if it tests 52wk lows, get in there.

I feel like an idiot for not selling my core @ $8.85 pre-market.

It would be nice.. Just watch out.. Observe first.. Lately (before the STX crap), it was always testing 52 week lows.. it just hadn't gotten there yet.. As in, I thought 4.7 (4.67, 4.73) was a sensible place to buy. but it was 4.46 within 30 minutes.. Those 4.5 and 4.75 # are psychological in the way that they are a solid floor (which has a solid bounce) or creaky rotten plywood...

Captain Hindsight says.. boy I sure am glad I wrote a metric f-ton of covered calls. and I sure am silly for spending extra cash to close out the 5 strike.. I cannot believe 10$ strike was a dollar today.

 

[zimu]

OCZ has been the topic of the week on these boards!

To change the topic, anyone heard of RMBS?

 

[Blades]

OCZ has been the topic of the week on these boards!

To change the topic, anyone heard of RMBS?

RMBS is the magical land where patent trolls are born, some say aapl got their start there. It stands for Rape Mothers, Brothers, Sisters (etc). They'll screw anyone over for a buck

OCZ<> Patent Trolls

 

[Arachnotronic]

In 500 FIO @ $18.92

 

[HybridSquirrel]

Apple stock split?

 

[Arachnotronic]

Out of FIO @ $19.12. I'll buy back on another dip (hopefully) to ride into the earnings report. But this earnings play, I'll protect myself with some puts.

This stock is very predictable and quickly becoming one of my favorite to trade. Under $19, you're pretty safe, and under $17, you should have no compunctions buying a significant amount for a short term run back up. I would have issues going in for a short term trade @ $20.

Long term, I don't recommend it on a valuation basis: P/E is ultra high, margins, while high, are contracting as enterprise flash storage becomes a more crowded play. Revenue growth isn't particularly impressive, either.

 

[chusteczka]

Lessons Learned from OCZ

• There was a similarity between OCZ and RMBS that involved a wild and crazy runup with a conclusive loss. My lesson learned here is to ride the runup but do not stay in for the conclusion. By "ride the runup", I mean to get in early with a low cost basis and just sit on it until just before the conclusion and then sell. That would be a "core" amount. Then take another "daily trading" group of funds to purchase at the 10% daily drops and sell before the end of the day.
  
• When purchasing for the core group, hold it. When purchasing for the daily trading group, sell it by the end of the day. It is so very important to maintain this distinction and not get it mixed in my head. Especially when my past experience has been to buy and hold for years.
• When purchasing for the core group, be willing to become a longterm shareholder if the price drops. Or be willing to sell at a loss (for a tax deduction). If unwilling to become a longterm shareholder of a company, then stick to day trading.
  
• Never trade when home sick with a fever. The fever interferes with all attempts at logical thinking.
  
• When the price gets to an amount that seems ungodly high, that is the time to sell, not hold.
  
• When a professional displays annoyance at my trades, that is his way of communicating that I made a bad move.
  
• Do not get scared or overly greedy by after hours trading. The small number of active trades allow individual emotions to cause wild price swings.
  
• This may be an indication of a bear rally, where institutions short sell the stock enough to cause a price drop. The price drop cascades down by forcing the sale of those who have set stop limits. This is a quick way for institutions to acquire the shares of overly cautious individuals. This implies institutions believe the price will jump soon. If this is recognized, it is time to buy. It is important to note the cost of borrowing the shares across a time period to determine if a bear raid is actually happening.
  
  
  
  
• This is algorithmic trading to quietly sell shares while maintaining the price. The small bumps in a general downward direction. If this is recognized, it is time to sell. Notice the volume and compare it with the bear rally.
  
  

Personal Results
I sold OCZ on Friday for a $2900 gain. My motivations to sell are described here.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=33749479&postcount=2120

I then stupidly purchased back in on Monday as the institutions started selling out, and this time it was mostly buying back into the game (gambling). My motivations were mixed and this caused inaction. A part of me wanted to ride it out to the end in a blaze of glory. Another part of me wanted to sell after the next bump as a day trade.

So far, my personal basis or break even point is $5.15. Anything over that means an overall profit for me. I am actually surprised the stock price seems to be recovering today.

For now I plan to continue holding my 2,000 shares, possibly through the holiday season after the fourth quarter results are provided in January.

Possible shareholder dilution may occur during this time, in an amount up to 20 million more shares. This could mean a 1/3 price drop.

 

[SunnyD]

FYI: OCZ is sitting at ~$6.30$6.70/share right now.

Making for some pretty nice gains on the day if you bought in on the dump off.

 

[chusteczka]

Yes, there is a crazy buy-up on OCZ happening now at the end of the day. I may sell before today is over, if the price gets close to $7. Definitely if the price goes over $7.

 

[Doodoo]

Crazy...roller coaster continues...more rumors are coming out...cancelled annual meeting...samsung getting thrown in the mix???

 

[Aharami]

i just read on twitter that OAZ cancelled it next shareholder meeting

 

[chusteczka]

People are selling what they bought yesterday, before the price drop. And more people are selling their day trade purchases from this morning. We are going to sit in this $6.50 - $6.75 range for a while.

We should have known the game wasn't over. There was no conclusive end.

 

[rcpratt]

This OCZ thing isn't done yet.

 

[chusteczka]

A little breathe of life to tease everyone.