***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Aharami]

"Benzinga.com ‏@Benzinga
$OCZ Spokesman Says Annual Meeting Not Cancelled"

 

[Aharami]

staying away from OCZ! almost pulled the trigger at 6.60 when I saw that false rumor that meeting cancelled

 

[chusteczka]

staying away from OCZ! almost pulled the trigger at 6.60 when I saw that false rumor that meeting cancelled

No, no, no, you are doing it wrong.
If you want to buy, then buy now as the price is dropping.
Do not purchase when everyone else is as the price increases.

An increased price is the time to sell.
Someone is playing these OCZ rumors hard and I would like to kick him in the nuts.

Do not follow the pack so easily.

 

[SunnyD]

A little breathe of life to tease everyone.

WEEEE! Throw your hands in the air like you're riding a rollercoaster!

No, no, no, you are doing it wrong.
If you want to buy, then buy now as the price is dropping.
Do not purchase when everyone else is as the price increases.

An increased price is the time to sell.
Someone is playing these OCZ rumors hard and I would like to kick him in the nuts.

Do not follow the pack so easily.

Honestly, only way I'd consider touching OCZ again at this point is in the low 5's at the earliest given its propensity to pop back up into the 6's.

 

[chusteczka]

WEEEE! Throw your hands in the air like you're riding a rollercoaster!



Honestly, only way I'd consider touching OCZ again at this point is in the low 5's at the earliest given its propensity to pop back up into the 6's.

I agree. This $6.00 - $6.50 range is a battleground no man's land. I would wait for something below $5.40, then sell at a jump like this. That move would have worked perfectly today.

It will be good to wait for the morning, anything purchased now is hoping for news tonight. When no news is provided tonight, the price will drop again in the morning, to possibly run up again later tomorrow.

All these rumors strongly discourage buy and hold. Buy low and sell high each day.

Use the volatility to your advantage but do not buy to hold unless you purchase below $5.25.

 

[chusteczka]

Here is something weird, when I was a child I would interpret all dollar amounts in terms of quarters for arcade games. $5 was 20 games at the arcade.

Now, I judge my trading by the amount of rent I pay on my apartment, which is $720.

When I sold on Friday for a $2900 gain, I gained 4 months rent.

Then I repurchased OCZ yesterday at $6.60. The current price of $6.25 has lost me one month of rent. My sell point is currently $6.97 where I will gain one month of rent.

A $700 - $1000 gain is my sell point now for each investment/trade that I make. A larger number of shares means a smaller percent gain is needed. However, the larger number of shares also increases my risk.

 

[Blades]

Got kicked off stock twits for language.. yet people were posting that guy theo's personal addy and phone #. If you want to not get kicked, I guess you're not supposed to reply to the warning message they send you. Whatever, I'm up quite a bit today from one hell of a options racketeering scenario..

sold covered calls high.. buy to close low.. sell high..

I still wish this stock didn't have all the attention it does! it has become somewhat high maintenance for either side long/short.. The people are the worst..

lah-te-dah.. Enough of it for now..

Who likes NXPI for a reason other than NFC chips? How about STM? You'd be amazed at what you can find on your average motherboard!

 

[Blades]

Here is something weird, when I was a child I would interpret all dollar amounts in terms of quarters for arcade games. $5 was 20 games at the arcade.

Now, I judge my trading by the amount of rent I pay on my apartment, which is $720.

When I sold on Friday for a $2900 gain, I gained 4 months rent.

Then I repurchased OCZ yesterday at $6.60. The current price of $6.25 has lost me one month of rent. My sell point is currently $6.97 where I will gain one month of rent.

A $700 - $1000 gain is my sell point now for each investment/trade that I make. A larger number of shares means a smaller percent gain is needed. However, the larger number of shares also increases my risk.

Yeah thats weird.. Don't get homeless on us.. Keep in mind, that some ranges - ocz might as well sell in units of Unicorns.. because people just get carried away.

At least you are aware of your risk.. most people only equate money lost after the fact as their rent or livelihood.

 

[darkxshade]

OCZ is getting manipulated so much with all the mis-information it's not even funny.

 

[chusteczka]

Blades, you have clearly better instincts, awareness, understanding, and experience than I do. I am here to learn and earn enough to keep paying my rent each month.

(Not saying that in a desperate way, I can always take a break from building my business to return to paid work. And my trading funds are about 1/3 of my total savings. Yes, I am pulling money out of my 401k to live right now but that is a different story. I have one more patent application to complete before I manufacture a small quantity and seek licensing, possibly as soon as this winter. I can last without a paying job until March or April.)

Your words can be harsh but I would rather have the hard truth than silence. I cannot learn from my mistakes with silence.

 

[chusteczka]

A better strategy to take advantage of this afternoon's action would have been to sell at $6.60 (short sell if needed) and then repurchase as it dropped.

I just do not think this way yet. Maybe soon I will start seeing the opportunities as they occur.

 

[Blades]

Blades, you have clearly better instincts, awareness, understanding, and experience than I do. I am here to learn and earn enough to keep paying my rent each month.

(Not saying that in a desperate way, I can always take a break from building my business to return to paid work. And my trading funds are about 1/3 of my total savings. Yes, I am pulling money out of my 401k to live right now but that is a different story. I have one more patent application to complete before I manufacture a small quantity and seek licensing, possibly as soon as this winter. I can last without a paying job until March or April.)

Your words can be harsh but I would rather have the hard truth than silence. I cannot learn from my mistakes with silence.

Get a monthly paying dividend stock that is not overpriced (difficult) and is not volatile (not that difficult).

An example would be buying 3000 shares of FULL on June 4th at 7.31 - If you reinvest dividends.. One div payment has gone by and you now have 3029.314 shares - Or an exponentially increasing payment of 231.. 233 next month..

There are far better examples.. I'll try to give you a current scenario that pays your rent with minimal investment. Just be aware that these high yield stocks are all the rage right now and a bond/safety stock bubble might be building... I'd definitely say that most high yield corp bonds are overpriced... but those have been 'famous last words' from other people in the past..

edit: Don't short sell. Use options for plays on price movements. I'm on the sell side of options. I play it safe and sell 'out of the money' puts on stocks that I'd probably buy at that price anyways. I also sell out of the money far dated calls on dividend paying stocks.

STX @ 23.67 is a 27% return.. And they just increased their dividend payout.. So theres a good chance people will start buying STX at what used to seem like high prices from now on.. I sold a Jan 19th 2013 put for $1.51 - in hindsight.. Super silly.. Because depending on who gets elected - dividends might not be as attractive as they are currently.

That said.. STX @ 23.67 (my cost basis) with a .32 quarterly payout is 1.28 annual and that is equiv to 5.4% 'interest' rate. I'll take it.. Added bonus that it has risen since then..

Thats why you saw this floor with STX.. I tried to tell people who 'announced' on stocktwits (ugh) they were short selling at mid 28s and this and that. At a price of 28, STX has a 4.57% div yield.. People like that.. Not helping that it goes ex-dividend in 10 or so days.. Silly silly.

Previous div was .25 and therefore annual div paid would be 1$ - for the stock to have a yield of 4.57% - it would have to be priced at $21.84..

That is not to say that 28$ is the new floor to the stock.. I'm saying that if you recognized this and bought when the stock was down to the low 28s.. you'd have quite the gain with a decent amount of protection.

 

[sm625]

I created my own technical indicator about 6 months ago. It had previously been accessible by googling for the JB350 Technical Indicator. But I have moved it to its own site: http://www.rsitraders.com/

If you are wondering how accurate it is, look at this and note the date.

 

[chusteczka]

Something like FULL is exactly what I need. Thank you, I will look into it.

For most of last year, I owned enough of Chimera Investment Corporation (CIM) in the $2.65 - $3.10 range to pay $710 every 3 months. But then the price started dropping and I sold this past March, at a share price profit. Since then they have dropped down to $2.17, so I think I did well by using that when it was useful.

I have been looking for other dividend possibilities, mostly at Vina Concha y Toro S.A. (VCO) but they have been too high priced for my needs.

Other stable companies that I have been looking at include: CAT, GLW, JCI, and RE.

But I have not yet been able to convince myself to purchase. My inability to purchase may be due to the potential volatility and opportunity to learn that we are now seeing with OCZ. I first purchased OCZ back in May when the price dropped down to $5.00 - $5.50 from the $7-$8 range.

Your help in selecting a good company is greatly appreciated but not obligated. I have been reading Smart Money magazine and investigating their tips but am admittedly behind in my reading. Smart Money introduced me to CIM that worked well for a while.

 

[Blades]

Something like FULL is exactly what I need. Thank you, I will look into it.

For most of last year, I owned enough of Chimera Investment Corporation (CIM) in the $2.65 - $3.10 range to pay $710 every 3 months. But then the price started dropping and I sold this past March, at a share price profit. Since then they have dropped down to $2.17, so I think I did well by using that when it was useful.

I have been looking for other dividend possibilities, mostly at Vina Concha y Toro S.A. (VCO) but they have been too high priced for my needs.

Other stable companies that I have been looking at include: CAT, GLW, JCI, and RE.

But I have not yet been able to convince myself to purchase. My inability to purchase may be due to the potential volatility and opportunity to learn that we are now seeing with OCZ. I first purchased OCZ back in May when the price dropped down to $5.00 - $5.50 from the $7-$8 range.

Your help in selecting a good company is greatly appreciated but not obligated. I have been reading Smart Money magazine and investigating their tips but am admittedly behind in my reading. Smart Money introduced me to CIM that worked well for a while.

I will find you a better one than FULL.. Better as in.. safer.. There are many others. Right now its so close its 52 week high.. and you'd be better off in something thats not likely to fall from profit taking or whatever.

7.60ish would be ok.. but.. not near 8s..

PSEC is a good one.. they increase their div every month.. They recently announced share offering which smacked the stock down 7%.. but it held nicely and is trading somewhat below the offering..

I recommend keeping your eye on a few high yielding CEFs that get sold off simply because people exit a position.. Most closed end funds have this happen from time to time.. Research first to see if there are any shenanigans likely to happen with unknown funds.. if its trading above NAV.. and have a look at how it behaves before/after ex-dividend.

will write more later.

 

[chusteczka]

I created my own technical indicator about 6 months ago. It had previously been accessible by googling for the JB350 Technical Indicator. But I have moved it to its own site: http://www.rsitraders.com/

If you are wondering how accurate it is, look at this and note the date.

You seem to have found a useful process to provide systematic trading. That is not easy to do. There is much behind the data you have provided, so I assume the positive numbers imply a good time to purchase while the negative values imply time to sell. Thank you for sharing.

I will find you a better one than FULL.. Better as in.. safer.. There are many others. Right now its so close its 52 week high.. and you'd be better off in something thats not likely to fall from profit taking or whatever.

For you both, the market as a whole does have a feeling of impending collapse. Any suggestion to purchase a company to hold will not be acted upon by me until the market has a stronger outlook. I do not wish to buy in only to have the market collapse shortly afterward. And I do plan to use sm625's technical indicator in this regard.

I do agree with sm625's suggestion to "get the hell out" now and have done so with everything except OCZ. Even my 401k is in a stable money market position but then it has been sitting there since 2008. :$ (I pulled out just before the collapse in 2008 and haven't gotten back in yet.)

My preference would be to get out of OCZ for safety while the market corrects itself. But if it drops while I am holding then I will continue to hold it through 4Q results. We will see what happens this week.

 

[Blades]

Cool.. Observation mode never lost anyone money.. cept people holding their euros 'on the sideline' a year ago. Just wanted to share the rent paying guesstimate..

6800 PSEC at 10.96 (my own cost basis) would cost 74k and at first would pay out $690 a month, which if reinvested would get that payout to 720 a month by Dec.. That assumes the price was flat at 11.. so the shares were repurchased at 11..

Not a way to forecast shit or anything.. just saying.. compounded div/interest is great stuff.. Don't look for nonsense high yield.. CEL, RSH, SVU, NOK are classic examples of where the initial investment needed to generate div returns of xyz was lower than most.. but you would've lost quite a bit of it..

When you decide its time to buy.. Look for something that is steady and has a very tight range between the 52 week high and low.. The price action should put you to sleep.. The yield should be decent, but nothing that is 'smoke to the hidden fire'

PS: CIM is an excellent excellent example of this. That is a horror story. They also delayed to file more than a few times.... Total shenanigans

PSEC increases their div payed by .000025$ a month.. they paid annualized 1.64$ back in 2008 craziness. 10.1016 a month is sensible for the time being..

 

[chusteczka]

Thank you for the introduction to the capital appreciation stocks. Now I understand them a little more and realize that I have seen recommendations for a couple of them in Smart Money; specifically ARCC and PNNT. These appear to be similar to Low and Mid Cap Funds but in a slightly different market. Thank you even more for providing the things to look for with these. That is much appreciated.

Do not worry about my 401k. I have mutual funds under control. No problem there. The surprising aspect that has really stopped me from putting my 401k money back into the mutual funds is that somehow, the funds that I had did not crash like the market in 2009. I would actually be buying back fewer shares than I had originally before 2009. School is expensive. I decided to keep it completely safe with my 401k by keeping it all in the money market while I experiment with higher risk by picking individual stocks.

Anyway, thank you. I am going to go back through my old issues of Smart Money to find the articles discussing capital appreciation stocks and see what they have to say. Then I will review any that Smart Money recommended along with the two you recommended, and probably a few others in the competition list on the Google Finance page.

 

[chusteczka]

Required reading on OCZ.

Barrons.com - Tech Trader Daily
STX: No Deal, OCZ Falls, Street Waits For Further Direction

That blogger Theo Valich, needs to be ostracized for not knowing the difference between writing an opinion piece and creating a rumor that upsets the market. Seriously, he needs to be ousted from a career in journalism. His name and articles will forever be on my ignore list.

 

[kevman]

Cool.. Observation mode never lost anyone money.. cept people holding their euros 'on the sideline' a year ago. Just wanted to share the rent paying guesstimate..

6800 PSEC at 10.96 (my own cost basis) would cost 74k and at first would pay out $690 a month, which if reinvested would get that payout to 720 a month by Dec.. That assumes the price was flat at 11.. so the shares were repurchased at 11..

Not a way to forecast shit or anything.. just saying.. compounded div/interest is great stuff.. Don't look for nonsense high yield.. CEL, RSH, SVU, NOK are classic examples of where the initial investment needed to generate div returns of xyz was lower than most.. but you would've lost quite a bit of it..

When you decide its time to buy.. Look for something that is steady and has a very tight range between the 52 week high and low.. The price action should put you to sleep.. The yield should be decent, but nothing that is 'smoke to the hidden fire'

PS: CIM is an excellent excellent example of this. That is a horror story. They also delayed to file more than a few times.... Total shenanigans

PSEC increases their div payed by .000025$ a month.. they paid annualized 1.64$ back in 2008 craziness. 10.1016 a month is sensible for the time being..

What do you think of AWF?

 

[Blades]

Got that yesterday at 15.72, 1k shares. Still evaluating its 'behavior'. I had AVK at 15.48 and it dropped to 15.20ish in 2 days. Then it spiked up and away. My cost basis is now 15.26 after reducing on the way up.

Check out dividend.com, and use the screener. Its a slightly annoying site sometimes, but it does let you see the big picture and where various funds fit in. I hate quarterly divs. As I said, CIM was a nightmare. PGH was an example of a monthly div payer that had teeth. Captain hindsight says "Dividend payouts that rely on fluctuating prices of certain commodities (ahem natgas) are bad news bears"

 

[Blades]

What do you think of AWF?

Its hit its 52week high and it trades in AH. Seems like too many people are in that boat.

AOD @ 4.18 - 4.2
Smallish amount at first. Think of it as lending money to a stranger (because it is). .055 cents per share a month is upper 15% - that said, don't go all in until you get to know it. I'd make a joke about dating sketchy females, and I think I just did.

You're payment schedule had been set for the next 2 months, so no worries about chopped divs. They announce 3months ahead.. so...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alpine-total-dynamic-dividend-fund-203000754.html

Again, don't go all in on the first date.

I like AOD because its easy to liquidate if needed. As opposed to, say, .... crt . Yikes 11k avg volume. (Up 4+%, bought Thurs! )

edit:
Check out CRT 1 year for a nice example of the knee jerk reactions to divs dropping, People tend to get rid of it after it goes ex div.. This is also awful low volume.. So if you had a good amount of shares, you'd be the bull in the china shop..

http://www.google.com/finance?q=crt

Then PGH (I was a "victim" of mid july, how low can it go drop). I literally bought and sold all the way down.. My cost basis on the tiny bit of shares that I still have is literally the 52 week low.. Theres a lesson.. Never try to satiate your curiosity with "oh man, how low can it go - I will be the one to find the bottom". Its bad.. mmkay.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=pgh

Finally, CIM - Chimera... destroyer of savings.. the anti-midas. Everytime I buy.. poof. goes down 5%

http://www.google.com/finance?q=cim

Have a look at july 26th starting from 2.21 for my last adventure with this junk.. If you ever notice it is lower than what you sold it for last time u traded it.... its for a reason..

 

[Arachnotronic]

Any thoughts on DNDN, anyone?

That stock has been getting kicked in the nads, and I'm wondering if this represents a good opportunity. Or is JNJ's competing product just leaving them in the dust?

 

[Blades]

http://www.google.com/finance?q=svu
http://www.google.com/finance?q=rsh
http://www.google.com/finance?q=hgg

Learn from the recent 'history' of kicked in the balls stocks.. After the first hard kick.. theres always a couple more kicks to make sure its nice and... kicked.. I guess short sellers like to play games with people who find the recent 50% off discount a decent value play.

and then there is the other estimate misser. AMZN. serial offender of logic/reasoning - shenannigans

http://www.google.com/finance?q=amzn



the best estimate misser is STX.. when it dropped to low 27s (23s a couple weeks ago when it preannounced earnings would be gloomy).. it then raised its dividend.. and that was a great value play because it bounced back to 30...

Don't be the first one to run into the burning building.. Wait, study the structural integrity, assess the damage and evaluate if the burning roof is likely to cave in on you... if u get my analogy.

 

[lothar]

Required reading on OCZ.

Barrons.com - Tech Trader Daily
STX: No Deal, OCZ Falls, Street Waits For Further Direction

That blogger Theo Valich, needs to be ostracized for not knowing the difference between writing an opinion piece and creating a rumor that upsets the market. Seriously, he needs to be ousted from a career in journalism. His name and articles will forever be on my ignore list.

More like the investors that bought his words hook, line, and sinker.
Ask anyone in the Anandtech CPU/Overclocking subforum about the reputation of Fudzilla/TheInquirer and they will tell you what it is.

Fudzilla is a sister site of "TheInquirer". That junk technical site a decade ago that reported every false prediction.
You can tell because they are always talking in code words like "Itanic", "Longhorn", "Wintel" alliance, etc...

It wouldn't surprise me that this was all a sham for them to sell their stock.
There's no securities law against reporting false technological rumors on a technology site that I know off.