***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[The-Noid]

Look out the curve at the block put trades. The calls that are trading are already in the money, all you are buying is intrinsic value there . I'm not going to argue with you on RMBS that is fine. The next move is down.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Look out the curve at the block put trades. The calls that are trading are already in the money, all you are buying is intrinsic value there . I'm not going to argue with you on RMBS that is fine. The next move is down.

let's make a bet for shits and giggles. $50 that RMBS closes up tomorrow.

 

[The-Noid]

Done.

The only chance you have going for you is it is options ex on Friday. Guaranteed it is not up after Friday.

 

[Slew Foot]

RMBS long term outlook is decent. The MMs are trying to settle, and theyve got a favorable judge to side with them for the next trial. It may go down a bit in the short term, but by this time next year, they should be golden.

 

[JS80]

OK so official bet:
Amount: $50
Terms: RMBS closes UP on Tuesday, June 16, 2009. Tie (no change) goes to Yoxxy.

 

[Slew Foot]

Good luck to you JS80, I wouldnt make a bet for a certain day without any news due, but im on the bull train so good luck.

IMHO aside from any other news, RMBS is due for a small pullback.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Good luck to you JS80, I wouldnt make a bet for a certain day without any news due, but im on the bull train so good luck.

IMHO aside from any other news, RMBS is due for a small pullback.

i'm a degenerate gambler i will take almost any action

 

[The-Noid]

Originally posted by: JS80
OK so official bet:
Amount: $50
Terms: RMBS closes UP on Tuesday, June 16, 2009. Tie (no change) goes to Yoxxy.

This seems like a derivative you think I should report this in my outside activities as a contingent forward?

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Done.

The only chance you have going for you is it is options ex on Friday. Guaranteed it is not up after Friday.

So you're saying RMBS has no were to go but down? and whats your target rate? your prediction is purely based on technicals? What happens to the rate during september when the trials start?

 

[The-Noid]

Originally posted by: pravi333

Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Done.

The only chance you have going for you is it is options ex on Friday. Guaranteed it is not up after Friday.

So you're saying RMBS has no were to go but down? and whats your target rate? your prediction is purely based on technicals? What happens to the rate during september when the trials start?

I am not going to look at the fundamentals of the trial with a date of September.

Buying stocks based on the outcome of a trial is called a "lottery ticket." The only way you ever play these is with options chains either vertical, horizontal or diagonal.

The way you make money on court rulings is by not tying up a lot of capital and using the leverage in the option or your derivative of choice, not buy buying and holding. If you think the target is 25, buy the 23 calls and buy more of them. There is no reason to tie up the amount of capital you would need for months at a time based on what your perceive to be the expected move based on P(1). P(0) is all you should worry about, but even fundamentally at some point you need to come back to P1/S0 which is going to cause problems for any institutional or smart-money investor even with the judgment on the case.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

RMBS will not be in business in 10 years. Even if it is, are you really certain of this today? If RMBS will produce no free cash flows in 10 years time, what is todays intrinsic value.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Done.

The only chance you have going for you is it is options ex on Friday. Guaranteed it is not up after Friday.

Actually, options ex on Friday would favor you Yoxxy since max pain is $13

I won't make the day to day bet. RMBS is probably due for a pullback sooner than later, but the overall momentum is on RMBS' side unless the market keeps crashing. Long-term, I think you're wrong. Not because of lack of intelligence, but because you're basing things on short-term signals and not doing due diligence on long-term prospects given what has happened.

P.S. I replied to your PM.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Yoxxy

Originally posted by: JS80
OK so official bet:
Amount: $50
Terms: RMBS closes UP on Tuesday, June 16, 2009. Tie (no change) goes to Yoxxy.

This seems like a derivative you think I should report this in my outside activities as a contingent forward?

Treat it like a CDS, no collateral = off the books

 

[The-Noid]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Done.

The only chance you have going for you is it is options ex on Friday. Guaranteed it is not up after Friday.

Actually, options ex on Friday would favor you Yoxxy since max pain is $13

I won't make the day to day bet. RMBS is probably due for a pullback sooner than later, but the overall momentum is on RMBS' side unless the market keeps crashing. Long-term, I think you're wrong. Not because of lack of intelligence, but because you're basing things on short-term signals and not doing due diligence on long-term prospects given what has happened.

P.S. I replied to your PM.

With the volumes of calls out though in the current month compared to the curve, I think you could still see some short term buying to get the calls into the money. The amount of float that changes hands really isn't that big on a normal day +-2.2MM on and off exchange. A couple of 50,000 share blocks, which is only 2MM out of pocket can make a lot of the calls you own go into the money. I think it depends on many factors. Short-term it is a wild card. For someone who has done the due diligence and thinks the case is a slam dunk commit more capital over the long term.

 

[Azurik]

Ok folks... to end this little quibble (if you want to call it that).

I've had several private discussions with Yoxxy and him and I are on the same page. I think we just explain it differently.

He has no vested interested in RMBS. His concern is to the recent RMBS share buyers. He sees short-term a pullback in the stock so he is recommending a sell and states that if people are convinced that the court rulings are favorable, then to buy options because you risk less capital and have better leverage. Fair enough.

It goes along to what I was comtemplating before with my 13,000 shares and Jan $25 & $30 call options. I was planning to take some profit on maybe half the shares while letting the rest ride with the options I have.

I disagree in that I think we may see $19+ before under $17... but this is why we have the discussion board - to debate back and forth on the merit of each strategy.

He's a lot better than the trolls that come out of the woodwork to bash stocks when it falls, but no where to be seen on its rise (bunch of Yahoo! posters come to mind).

 

[The-Noid]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Ok folks... to end this little quibble (if you want to call it that).

I've had several private discussions with Yoxxy and him and I are on the same page. I think we just explain it differently.

He has no vested interested in RMBS. His concern is to the recent RMBS share buyers. He sees short-term a pullback in the stock so he is recommending a sell and states that if people are convinced that the court rulings are favorable, then to buy options because you risk less capital and have better leverage. Fair enough.

It goes along to what I was comtemplating before with my 13,000 shares and Jan $25 & $30 call options. I was planning to take some profit on maybe half the shares while letting the rest ride with the options I have.

I disagree in that I think we may see $19+ before under $17... but this is why we have the discussion board - to debate back and forth on the merit of each strategy.

100% correct.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Ok folks... to end this little quibble (if you want to call it that).

I've had several private discussions with Yoxxy and him and I are on the same page. I think we just explain it differently.

He has no vested interested in RMBS. His concern is to the recent RMBS share buyers. He sees short-term a pullback in the stock so he is recommending a sell and states that if people are convinced that the court rulings are favorable, then to buy options because you risk less capital and have better leverage. Fair enough.

It goes along to what I was comtemplating before with my 13,000 shares and Jan $25 & $30 call options. I was planning to take some profit on maybe half the shares while letting the rest ride with the options I have.

I disagree in that I think we may see $19+ before under $17... but this is why we have the discussion board - to debate back and forth on the merit of each strategy.

Should hit 19 soon. PPT should show up anytime now but they might be scared of the dollar.

 

[The-Noid]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik
Ok folks... to end this little quibble (if you want to call it that).

I've had several private discussions with Yoxxy and him and I are on the same page. I think we just explain it differently.

He has no vested interested in RMBS. His concern is to the recent RMBS share buyers. He sees short-term a pullback in the stock so he is recommending a sell and states that if people are convinced that the court rulings are favorable, then to buy options because you risk less capital and have better leverage. Fair enough.

It goes along to what I was comtemplating before with my 13,000 shares and Jan $25 & $30 call options. I was planning to take some profit on maybe half the shares while letting the rest ride with the options I have.

I disagree in that I think we may see $19+ before under $17... but this is why we have the discussion board - to debate back and forth on the merit of each strategy.

Should hit 19 soon. PPT should show up anytime now but they might be scared of the dollar.

200 DOW points on low volume brings in the Plunge Protection Team now?

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Yoxxy

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik
Ok folks... to end this little quibble (if you want to call it that).

I've had several private discussions with Yoxxy and him and I are on the same page. I think we just explain it differently.

He has no vested interested in RMBS. His concern is to the recent RMBS share buyers. He sees short-term a pullback in the stock so he is recommending a sell and states that if people are convinced that the court rulings are favorable, then to buy options because you risk less capital and have better leverage. Fair enough.

It goes along to what I was comtemplating before with my 13,000 shares and Jan $25 & $30 call options. I was planning to take some profit on maybe half the shares while letting the rest ride with the options I have.

I disagree in that I think we may see $19+ before under $17... but this is why we have the discussion board - to debate back and forth on the merit of each strategy.

Should hit 19 soon. PPT should show up anytime now but they might be scared of the dollar.

200 DOW points on low volume brings in the Plunge Protection Team now?

Yes, Goldman doesn't want to disappoint the King.

 

[The-Noid]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Yoxxy

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik
Ok folks... to end this little quibble (if you want to call it that).

I've had several private discussions with Yoxxy and him and I are on the same page. I think we just explain it differently.

He has no vested interested in RMBS. His concern is to the recent RMBS share buyers. He sees short-term a pullback in the stock so he is recommending a sell and states that if people are convinced that the court rulings are favorable, then to buy options because you risk less capital and have better leverage. Fair enough.

It goes along to what I was comtemplating before with my 13,000 shares and Jan $25 & $30 call options. I was planning to take some profit on maybe half the shares while letting the rest ride with the options I have.

I disagree in that I think we may see $19+ before under $17... but this is why we have the discussion board - to debate back and forth on the merit of each strategy.

Should hit 19 soon. PPT should show up anytime now but they might be scared of the dollar.

200 DOW points on low volume brings in the Plunge Protection Team now?

Yes, Goldman doesn't want to disappoint the King.

Sweet, I picked the right job then. WE CAN ONLY GO UP FROM HERE! I honestly have felt like that though recently. My personal book is as small as it has been since Lehman as of 5 minutes ago.

PPT seems to buy overnight futures as well. I would hope and don't believe they buy stocks. PPT has virtually unlimited capital, but it is a lot easier to move futures pre-market then it is to move stocks during market. Personally I think the PPT bought futures 6-9 times last year just based on the volume pre-market.

 

[JS80]

lol yea we all feel the same. can't get the damn tin foil hat off my head though.

for the record i am ONLY long rmbs and some other penny stock. i am out of the market, i don't believe in it right now.

 

[Azurik]

Forgot to mention, why it's wise to own some shares and not just all options...

A person I knew lost $2 million dollars on RMBS options. Court cases, license signings, unexpected surprises often delays what we think should happen by a certain time frame. By using options exclusively, you risk everything even if end up being right. Maybe RMBS ends up winning, but not by the timeframe you bet on. You not only lost your gamble, but you missed the boat by not having any shares.

 

[The-Noid]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Forgot to mention, why it's wise to own some shares and not just all options...

A person I knew lost $2 million dollars on RMBS options. Court cases, license signings, unexpected surprises often delays what we think should happen by a certain time frame. By using options exclusively, you risk everything even if end up being right. Maybe RMBS ends up winning, but not by the timeframe you bet on. You not only lost your gamble, but you missed the boat by not having any shares.

Wow, what a nutter. Just as it is important to buy it also important to sell. I would have at least had some sort of strategy in place to protect this, whether it be a stop loss or selling every out of the money call that the specialist could create, this guy did not follow good practices.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Forgot to mention, why it's wise to own some shares and not just all options...

A person I knew lost $2 million dollars on RMBS options. Court cases, license signings, unexpected surprises often delays what we think should happen by a certain time frame. By using options exclusively, you risk everything even if end up being right. Maybe RMBS ends up winning, but not by the timeframe you bet on. You not only lost your gamble, but you missed the boat by not having any shares.

Ill say it again, lesson #1 of options trading. Take the timeframe you expect something to happen, then double it. I learned this the hard way in my first foray into options. I knew GM would go into the tank, but I was off by a year or so.

You can guess too long and still make money, but if you guess to short, youre hosed.

Also considered with RMBS that Whyte tends to take his time, which is why my time frame extends into next year.

 

[The-Noid]

19.18 in real-time on RMBS.