***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: HopJokey

Originally posted by: Azurik
updated for June 12, 2009...

Cash and Cash Equivalents:
Cash = $49k
Fidelity Money Market = $450k

Individual Stocks:
Rambus = $246k
Dendreon = $21k
Tivo = $20k
Senesco = $16k
Tessera = $10k
United Natural Gas = $9k
Wells Fargo = $7k
Raytheon = $5k
Kraft = $4k

Bonds:
Pimco Bonds Total Return (Institutional) = $203k

Mutual Funds:
S&P 500 = $20k
Dodge & Cox International = $10k
T. Rowe Price Health Sciences = $10k
Turner Emerging Growth = $5k

If that's your portfolio you are totally into RMBS. All of your other individual stock holdings combined is less than 40% of the value of RMBS.

Do you plan on balancing it out? RMBS is cool right now though

I was going to pull the trigger and sell some of my Rambus shares last week... they were meant to be "short-term" trading shares. They're up 300%+ and some of my options are worth 500%+ right now. Then the EU settlement happened and I thought about the implications of that.

I'm torn right now. I should know better and sell back to my normal Rambus holdings, which is around 5,000 to 8,500 shares... but I'm still sitting with 13,000 shares and a bunch of options. After 10 years of Rambus, I would hate to sell half of it now and have the thing explode. So... I'm still thinking

Today's action is really good against a bad market. Shows conviction after a big run-up. I did calculations based on percentage of companies settling and the size of the DRAM market in a bad economy versus a robust one and I get a value of anywhere between $75 to $200+.

A quarter of a million dollars in one stock... I'd never thought I would do that.

 

[JS80]

lol woke up and got more options, August 25 calls.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: HopJokey

Originally posted by: Azurik
updated for June 12, 2009...

Cash and Cash Equivalents:
Cash = $49k
Fidelity Money Market = $450k

Individual Stocks:
Rambus = $246k
Dendreon = $21k
Tivo = $20k
Senesco = $16k
Tessera = $10k
United Natural Gas = $9k
Wells Fargo = $7k
Raytheon = $5k
Kraft = $4k

Bonds:
Pimco Bonds Total Return (Institutional) = $203k

Mutual Funds:
S&P 500 = $20k
Dodge & Cox International = $10k
T. Rowe Price Health Sciences = $10k
Turner Emerging Growth = $5k

If that's your portfolio you are totally into RMBS. All of your other individual stock holdings combined is less than 40% of the value of RMBS.

Do you plan on balancing it out? RMBS is cool right now though

I was going to pull the trigger and sell some of my Rambus shares last week... they were meant to be "short-term" trading shares. They're up 300%+ and some of my options are worth 500%+ right now. Then the EU settlement happened and I thought about the implications of that.

I'm torn right now. I should know better and sell back to my normal Rambus holdings, which is around 5,000 to 8,500 shares... but I'm still sitting with 13,000 shares and a bunch of options. After 10 years of Rambus, I would hate to sell half of it now and have the thing explode. So... I'm still thinking

Today's action is really good against a bad market. Shows conviction after a big run-up. I did calculations based on percentage of companies settling and the size of the DRAM market in a bad economy versus a robust one and I get a value of anywhere between $75 to $200+.

A quarter of a million dollars in one stock... I'd never thought I would do that.

don't sell. Greed is Good.

 

[AznMthr]

i love you azurik!!!!!!!!!market is crashing and rmbs up big again.

ps, i sent you a gift card and a restaurant dinner compliments of my family. thank you for taking the time the explain the story and potential of rmbs.

 

[Slew Foot]

Hey go on vacation for a couple days and my portfolio jumps. Hey Az, you havent PM'd me your address yet. Anyway, im buying in more leaps on rmbs, slightly out of the money.

 

[Slew Foot]

Looking over my portfolio RMBS has taken over the number 1 position from KFT, haha.

TSRA has dipped a bit recently, Im thinking of buying in some leaps in there soon.

 

[PimpJuice]

I didnt have anything to invest in RMBS at the time, but now that I do......whats the recommended play?

Good time to buy still or wait for a selloff?

 

[Azurik]

If we take out any potential big news that may happen to Rambus, then we're at a crucial point right now. We have resistance around $18.90 and Judge Robinson's ruling collapsed Rambus from $18.41 to $10.25 in one day. ANY close above $19 sets up the next targets of $22 and $25, just based on the charts. That close may happen this week. For today, I would like to see RMBS close near it HOD (high of day), which is a tall order considering the market is tanking = negative market psychology.

 

[Azurik]

I switched from USO to UNG last week. I think natural gas is a better play at this point and it's undervalued because of the discrepancy in spot prices... risky bet, but it'll pay handsomely if I got it right. Bought Oct 2009 $25 call options in UNG @ .40 cents each.

 

[Slew Foot]

From what ive seen, oil does better in the summer(gasoline), natural gas in the fall (home heating). Both i think are good for the rest of the year though and gas is probably at less of a premium right now.

Any news on new contracts for TSRA in the pipeline?

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik
I switched from USO to UNG last week. I think natural gas is a better play at this point and it's undervalued because of the discrepancy in spot prices... risky bet, but it'll pay handsomely if I got it right. Bought Oct 2009 $25 call options in UNG @ .40 cents each.

I was looking at UNG last night. Tempted to get in on it but I might pass.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Any news on new contracts for TSRA in the pipeline?

Licensing could come at any time. I sold part TSRA for a profit last week because the run-up was so big and it was hitting a wall with the $27 resistance. I feel good about the company, but the market looks a little wobbly right now. I'll buy more if it gets low enough. I still think TSRA is worth $40+.

 

[JS80]

lol check out nukejohn's sunday post. some dude on the comments totally trashing him.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80
lol check out nukejohn's sunday post. some dude on the comments totally trashing him.

That guy is an idiot. NukeJohn provides great analysis and I keep in contact with him regularly. Like I said earlier though, his views are 99.9% optimistic - one needs to keep a level eye on things. Since you guys don't have access to PACER, I would recommend just wading through Yahoo! Finance's message boards since they collect information from all the news site. You just need to skip over the BS posts that come with it.

 

[The-Noid]

Personally I think you have missed the boat on UNG after today's move.

The whole commodities market is overbought, wait until the end of July and you should get the normal move in NatGas going into hurricane season. The economic picture is also becoming more transparent on a daily basis.

Full disclosure: Long GSCI futures, closed today. Long 100 July call contracts on UNG at 15. Short Gold Futures.

My view does not necessarily represent that of my current employer and is open for change at anytime. This opinion may only be appropriate at the given time and is subject to change at anytime.

 

[The-Noid]

Find the door on RMBS too. RMBS is going to trade 5x normal volume today. This is the sell signal you have been looking for. The lots that are coming in are 100,200,300 share lots as well at this point in the day everyone is trying to find the door.

My view does not necessarily represent that of my current employer and is open for change at anytime. This opinion may only be appropriate at the given time and is subject to change at anytime.

 

[The-Noid]

Originally posted by: Azurik

My Best Investment (and why I beat the major indices again): It was still a bad year, but I still trumped all 3 major indices again by a good margin. In fact, my non-retirement accounts posted a slight gain amid one of the worst stock market years. The majority of that can be attributed to a stock that I have held on to, and have studied almost nightly on for the past decade. RMBS. As it fell with the market, I picked up more and more shares of the stock, bringing my cost average way down and acculumating more shares than I ever thought I would own. The lowest levels I bought was $5.19 ($4.95 was the intraday low), bringing my overall cost average down to $8.59 a share. In one month (from November to December), the stock has more than tripled.

I now hold 8,500 shares in RMBS, which is about $150,000 at its current price. It is by far, my biggest investment in one stock. Those who kept up with the 2008 discussion knows what my opinion of this stock is and what I think it will do once the consolidated trial starts later this month and the antitrust trial that starts in April.

It has come to my attention that there have been several investors who bought into RMBS after reading the discussions I had with other posters. While all of you are sitting on a gain right now, I also urge you to do your own due diligence and have a selling plan. My investment risks may be different than yours, and we may have different levels of how comfortable we are with volitile swings... and with RMBS you will get plenty. Having said that, after a decade of following this stock, I firmly believe the company is in its best legal position it has ever been in and intend to ride out the trials. Like I said last year, RMBS is by far the company I know the most about compared to any other individual stock I own, and it is my stock for 2009 just like it was in 2008.

Regards,
Azurik

This is called escalation and confirmation bias. Generally speaking it does not work out. In this case it did for you.

Congrats.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Find the door on RMBS too. RMBS is going to trade 5x normal volume today. This is the sell signal you have been looking for. The lots that are coming in are 100,200,300 share lots as well at this point in the day everyone is trying to find the door.

My view does not necessarily represent that of my current employer and is open for change at anytime. This opinion may only be appropriate at the given time and is subject to change at anytime.

RMBS isn't trading based on any technicals. Today's action shows that it's in it's own world and it's based on litigation value.

 

[The-Noid]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Find the door on RMBS too. RMBS is going to trade 5x normal volume today. This is the sell signal you have been looking for. The lots that are coming in are 100,200,300 share lots as well at this point in the day everyone is trying to find the door.

My view does not necessarily represent that of my current employer and is open for change at anytime. This opinion may only be appropriate at the given time and is subject to change at anytime.

RMBS isn't trading based on any technicals. Today's action shows that it's in it's own world and it's based on litigation value.

That is why you find the door on a 28% move in 2 trading days.

What is your advantage to hold at this point? You have a lottery ticket if you are waiting for litigation value. With the amount of puts that are trading now you have quite a few people hedging. It is time to sell if you are holding this stock, the leverage in the stock is gone and at some point you have to realize you are buying a stock that is trading at 15x SALES!

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Find the door on RMBS too. RMBS is going to trade 5x normal volume today. This is the sell signal you have been looking for. The lots that are coming in are 100,200,300 share lots as well at this point in the day everyone is trying to find the door.

My view does not necessarily represent that of my current employer and is open for change at anytime. This opinion may only be appropriate at the given time and is subject to change at anytime.

Hi yoxxy,

First, you don't need to add a disclaimer to every post of yours. I get your point

Regarding RMBS, I see over 10+ block trades today already and back to back big volume on up days that I haven't seen in a while. It represents net buying and accumulation. This signals a bullish momentum, not a sell signal.

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: Yoxxy

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Find the door on RMBS too. RMBS is going to trade 5x normal volume today. This is the sell signal you have been looking for. The lots that are coming in are 100,200,300 share lots as well at this point in the day everyone is trying to find the door.

My view does not necessarily represent that of my current employer and is open for change at anytime. This opinion may only be appropriate at the given time and is subject to change at anytime.

RMBS isn't trading based on any technicals. Today's action shows that it's in it's own world and it's based on litigation value.

That is why you find the door on a 28% move in 2 trading days.

What is your advantage to hold at this point? You have a lottery ticket if you are waiting for litigation value. With the amount of puts that are trading now you have quite a few people hedging. It is time to sell if you are holding this stock, the leverage in the stock is gone and at some point you have to realize you are buying a stock that is trading at 15x SALES!

what do you do for living? Havent seen you post before in this thread, but right of the bat you rated RMBS to sell, so i am curious as to why.

 

[The-Noid]

Look at the put option volume. That is the sell signal. It is ok to buy if you are going to cover. Also, anyone that is accumulating at this point is going to do it on the third or fourth market to mask. Those block trades are fast money that wants you to see it, not accumulation. Sigma lists 3,500,000 shares available off exchange so any big block is not going to be on exchange.

Full disclosure: I also have no interest in RMBS (unless we are talking residential mortgage backed securities ) and I have adopted the CFA institutes code of conduct and professional standards.

 

[The-Noid]

LAST 10 TRADES
TIME PRICE SHARES
14:38:25 18.75 100
14:38:05 18.75 100
14:37:43 18.76 100
14:37:34 18.74 52
14:37:34 18.74 48
14:37:34 18.74 52
14:37:25 18.72 300
14:37:25 18.72 100
14:37:24 18.72 100
14:37:23 18.72 100

Looks like smart money to me

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Look at the put option volume. That is the sell signal. It is ok to buy if you are going to cover. Also, anyone that is accumulating at this point is going to do it on the third or fourth market to mask. Those block trades are fast money that wants you to see it, not accumulation. Sigma lists 3,500,000 shares available off exchange so any big block is not going to be on exchange.

Full disclosure: I also have no interest in RMBS (unless we are talking residential mortgage backed securities ) and I have adopted the CFA institutes code of conduct and professional standards.

Yoxxy, since Friday, call options have been hammering put options by a wide margin. Regardless of that, call/put volume doesn't say anything in itself otherwise we'd all be investing geniuses. Go read the last few hundred posts. A prime example of this was TSRA when it was in the low teens and there was a 2 to 1 put volume advantage when I called for a positive court decision. The majority option betters were wrong.

With RMBS, it is never about why it's trading 15x sales or that the P/E is out of whack. It's not about losing money every quarter due to increased litigation costs. You need to think outside the box and evaluate what is happening right now and how it could change the company's future earnings and value. You're thinking too conventional, which is fine, but you're better at buying Coke and McDonald if that's your mindset. Your stock screener would have never picked up on DNDN, TSRA, TIVO, RMBS, ELN, etc. These kind of stocks aren't for you.

 

[ivan2]

i donno where you look for your option at ameritrade im looking at at least a 2:1 call vs put for june for rambus.

disclaimer: i gamble, don't follow.