***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

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E

eLiu

Diamond Member
Jun 4, 2001
6,407
1
0
Originally posted by: JS80
I bot the July 15 calls. The Aug/Nov options were too exp IMO so I decided to gamble on the July anticipating a run before the September trial date, especially considering there is a probability of settlement and never going to trial.

I also bot the August 25 calls this morning on the dip.

If you don't know what you're doing, I would recommend against buying options, although this might be a case of exception and may be a good time to "learn."
Click to expand...

Originally posted by: Azurik
Agree with what JS80 said. Options are really risky... and I know my point will be lost because of the run-up we have had, but it's a losing position to most players.

If you had to press me in a corner, and I didn't have a Rambus position at all, I'd probably initiate a position with Jan $35 calls. It's risky, but that's the one I would choose in both in price target and time to hit.

For the short-term, I have to remind people, that it could go either way. Momentum is definitely in RMBS's favor, but it is overbought at this level. The rise happened way too fast and needs to consolidate before it can sustain a healthy and steady rise. This is not to say it can't go up any further.

Any news, and that advice I gave you goes out the window.
Click to expand...

I've never invested anything before, but I am looking to learn.

I have some "book" understanding of how these things work in theory (from reading stuff on the internet), but I figure that isn't worth a whole lot. I've also had some minimal experience w/the black schols model b/c my research deals with solving pde.

anyyway, I have some money available and honestly with all the excitement here I'm finding it hard to resist following in y'alls footsteps with a thousand or two for fun.

-Eric

Also if I'm looking to make some longer term investments, is now a good time to do it? i.e. characteristically will the markets keep slipping tomorrow or should we expect a rebound? (Personally I'd vote with the latter, for what little that's worth.)
 
J

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: eLiu
Originally posted by: JS80
I bot the July 15 calls. The Aug/Nov options were too exp IMO so I decided to gamble on the July anticipating a run before the September trial date, especially considering there is a probability of settlement and never going to trial.

I also bot the August 25 calls this morning on the dip.

If you don't know what you're doing, I would recommend against buying options, although this might be a case of exception and may be a good time to "learn."
Click to expand...

Originally posted by: Azurik
Agree with what JS80 said. Options are really risky... and I know my point will be lost because of the run-up we have had, but it's a losing position to most players.

If you had to press me in a corner, and I didn't have a Rambus position at all, I'd probably initiate a position with Jan $35 calls. It's risky, but that's the one I would choose in both in price target and time to hit.

For the short-term, I have to remind people, that it could go either way. Momentum is definitely in RMBS's favor, but it is overbought at this level. The rise happened way too fast and needs to consolidate before it can sustain a healthy and steady rise. This is not to say it can't go up any further.

Any news, and that advice I gave you goes out the window.
Click to expand...

I've never invested anything before, but I am looking to learn.

I have some "book" understanding of how these things work in theory (from reading stuff on the internet), but I figure that isn't worth a whole lot. I've also had some minimal experience w/the black schols model b/c my research deals with solving pde.

anyyway, I have some money available and honestly with all the excitement here I'm finding it hard to resist following in y'alls footsteps with a thousand or two for fun.

-Eric

Also if I'm looking to make some longer term investments, is now a good time to do it? i.e. characteristically will the markets keep slipping tomorrow or should we expect a rebound? (Personally I'd vote with the latter, for what little that's worth.)
Click to expand...

Really depends on Goldman. If the King makes the call tomorrow morning then they will pump futures and feed the green shoots line to CNBC.

My guess is gap up tomorrow with choppy trading until opex.
 
L

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: eLiu
Originally posted by: JS80
I bot the July 15 calls. The Aug/Nov options were too exp IMO so I decided to gamble on the July anticipating a run before the September trial date, especially considering there is a probability of settlement and never going to trial.

I also bot the August 25 calls this morning on the dip.

If you don't know what you're doing, I would recommend against buying options, although this might be a case of exception and may be a good time to "learn."
Click to expand...

Originally posted by: Azurik
Agree with what JS80 said. Options are really risky... and I know my point will be lost because of the run-up we have had, but it's a losing position to most players.

If you had to press me in a corner, and I didn't have a Rambus position at all, I'd probably initiate a position with Jan $35 calls. It's risky, but that's the one I would choose in both in price target and time to hit.

For the short-term, I have to remind people, that it could go either way. Momentum is definitely in RMBS's favor, but it is overbought at this level. The rise happened way too fast and needs to consolidate before it can sustain a healthy and steady rise. This is not to say it can't go up any further.

Any news, and that advice I gave you goes out the window.
Click to expand...

I've never invested anything before, but I am looking to learn.

I have some "book" understanding of how these things work in theory (from reading stuff on the internet), but I figure that isn't worth a whole lot. I've also had some minimal experience w/the black schols model b/c my research deals with solving pde.

anyyway, I have some money available and honestly with all the excitement here I'm finding it hard to resist following in y'alls footsteps with a thousand or two for fun.

-Eric

Also if I'm looking to make some longer term investments, is now a good time to do it? i.e. characteristically will the markets keep slipping tomorrow or should we expect a rebound? (Personally I'd vote with the latter, for what little that's worth.)
Click to expand...

Really depends on Goldman. If the King makes the call tomorrow morning then they will pump futures and feed the green shoots line to CNBC.

My guess is gap up tomorrow with choppy trading until opex.
Click to expand...

If that situation was really happening soembody would just take the opposite side and short the hell out of the market, eventually collapsing the trade.

Seriously dude, you need to just stop with the politically charged conspiracy theories.
 
J

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
If that situation was really happening soembody would just take the opposite side and short the hell out of the market, eventually collapsing the trade.

Seriously dude, you need to just stop with the politically charged conspiracy theories.
Click to expand...

haha too easy to place blame on PPT, especially now with Goldman owning 70% of the market. but for now the tinfoil hat is stapled to my head.
 
J

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Well, the Bus is on the move again, when will it stop? Nobody knows!
Click to expand...

hah effin T3 trader is shorting RMBS. that's causing the ticks down right now as we speak.

edit: these are the T3 traders i was referring to https://t3live.com/index.php

i guess they can move individual stocks. All 3 of the traders went short right before the mini sell off.
 
T

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
4
76
DISCLOSURE TIME! I stayed up all night reading the case and this thread in its entirety. Although I don't completely agree with the short term prospects. My personal 52w target is 31 based on a perceived expected cash flow and current multiplier. It is hard to put any kind of intrinsic value on a company that is receiving its multiple from a lawsuit, but I will try.

At the open I acquired a 22,000 share interest in RMBS using options of varying maturities and strike price. First call comes up in June last in Jan of 2010. 3/4 are in the money currently.
 
J

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: Yoxxy
DISCLOSURE TIME! I stayed up all night reading the case and this thread in its entirety. Although I don't completely agree with the short term prospects. My personal 52w target is 31.

At the open I acquired a 22,000 share interest in RMBS using options of varying maturities and strike price. First call comes up in June last in Jan of 2010. 3/4 are in the money currently.
Click to expand...

well then the $50 you're going to lose to me is a drop in the bucket
 
Slew Foot

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Originally posted by: Yoxxy
DISCLOSURE TIME! I stayed up all night reading the case and this thread in its entirety. Although I don't completely agree with the short term prospects. My personal 52w target is 31 based on a perceived expected cash flow and current multiplier. It is hard to put any kind of intrinsic value on a company that is receiving its multiple from a lawsuit, but I will try.

At the open I acquired a 22,000 share interest in RMBS using options of varying maturities and strike price. First call comes up in June last in Jan of 2010. 3/4 are in the money currently.
Click to expand...

Thats about where I stand, Im buying up leap calls from jan to sept of next year with targets between 20 and 30.
 
J

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Originally posted by: JS80
OK so official bet:
Amount: $50
Terms: RMBS closes UP on Tuesday, June 16, 2009. Tie (no change) goes to Yoxxy.
Click to expand...

This seems like a derivative you think I should report this in my outside activities as a contingent forward?
Click to expand...

alright. how do you want your payment? cash? something from amazon? charitable donation?
 
T

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
4
76
Charitable donation is great, Plant a Row for the hungry is a great cause otherwise any local food shelf.
 
Azurik

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Honorable move JS80!

...must be rich from finally following one of my picks. What's $50 when your the calls you made have gone up 4x-5x fold ;)

I'm still waiting for the NYC party when you come over to the East Coast, although I'm located in MA so a Boston party would be even better!
 
J

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: Azurik
Honorable move JS80!

...must be rich from finally following one of my picks. What's $50 when your the calls you made have gone up 4x-5x fold ;)

I'm still waiting for the NYC party when you come over to the East Coast, although I'm located in MA so a Boston party would be even better!
Click to expand...

5x

i rolled my july 15 to july 20s near end of market. we'll see if i'll be buying you drinks or buying a table.
 
E

eLiu

Diamond Member
Jun 4, 2001
6,407
1
0
Originally posted by: Yoxxy
DISCLOSURE TIME! I stayed up all night reading the case and this thread in its entirety. Although I don't completely agree with the short term prospects. My personal 52w target is 31 based on a perceived expected cash flow and current multiplier. It is hard to put any kind of intrinsic value on a company that is receiving its multiple from a lawsuit, but I will try.

At the open I acquired a 22,000 share interest in RMBS using options of varying maturities and strike price. First call comes up in June last in Jan of 2010. 3/4 are in the money currently.
Click to expand...

Mind sharing what options you hold/held?
 
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