Nvidia Kepler Yields Lower Than Expected –CEO. Fermi 2.0?

[Silverforce11]

No demos, no architecture briefings, not even ES running a canned benchmark..

Sad panda.

 

[Arkadrel]

No demos, no architecture briefings, not even ES running a canned benchmark..

Sad panda.

Wasnt there one of Tegra3 there?

 

[DeeJayeS]

As of 18th February 2012,

GK100 being scrap = rumor
GK104 being the GTX680 = rumor
GK104 faster than Tahiti = rumor
Kepler desktop launch = unknown
Kepler in production = confirmed
Which Kepler in production = unknown

+

No demos, no architecture briefings, not even ES running a canned benchmark..

Sad panda.

but then

Word is now that Nvidia is sending out NDA documents to review sites.

Assuming Kepler is this close, why haven't we heard anything concrete from NV? Every day NV loses potential Kepler customers to the 7000 series. Wouldn't they want to rain on AMD's parade? I don't get it...the silence is deafening.

 

[badb0y]

If they are releasing the mid range card first they don't have to say anything yet.

 

[sontin]

Assuming Kepler is this close, why haven't we heard anything concrete from NV? Every day NV loses potential Kepler customers to the 7000 series. Wouldn't they want to rain on AMD's parade? I don't get it...the silence is deafening.

AMD's Lineup is a little bit subpar for this. They selling card for over $400 and between $100-$160. There is no need for them to announce something.

 

[blackened23]

If NDA is being passed around to reviewers, possibly a late march launch? and whats with kyle?

So who got a NDA from nvidia? So apparently apoppin at ABT posted a cryptic message that "he had to sign some legal documents". Nowhere did he say that he received a NDA from nvidia. I'm hesitant to read into his statement that much because it sounded mostly like a witty retort to what Kyle Bennett posted on [H]. In fact, Kyle posted that no one in his immediate circle received an NDA -- and Kyle definitely is on nvidia's list of websites for reviews.

So stating that NDAs went out is probably stretching things a bit, but if they are thats great too.

 

[Lonyo]

Word is now that Nvidia is sending out NDA documents to review sites.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/2977/...-gtx-470-6-months-late-was-it-worth-the-wait-

Review of GTX480/470 by Ryan Smith on 3/26/2010 7:00:00 PM

http://alienbabeltech.com/main/fermi-gf-100-nda-ends-tomorrow-at-9-pm-sunday-1172010
"Fermi GF-100 NDA Ends Tomorrow at 9 PM – Sunday, 1/17/2010"
http://www.anandtech.com/show/2918

There was a Fermi NDA which ended TWO MONTHS before actual reviews of the cards were up.
NDA documents don't necessarily mean reviews of real cards, let alone a launch.

And I'm letting NV off the "technology preview" that most sites had up in September 2009, over 3 months before the first NDA was up, and over 5 months before cards were reviewed or available, because I assume that wasn't something covered under NDA.

 

[DeeJayeS]

If they are releasing the mid range card first they don't have to say anything yet.

AMD's Lineup is a little bit subpar for this. They selling card for over $400 and between $100-$160. There is no need for them to announce something.

If I was in the video card business and had a card that beat my competitor on price and/or performance and its release was imminent, I would let my potential customers know. Particularly when my competitor had been in the market with new technology ahead of me for 2+ months and counting. Call me crazy...

 

[Lonyo]

If I was in the video card business and had a card that beat my competitor on price and/or performance and its release was imminent, I would let my customers know. Particularly when my competitor had been in the market with new technology ahead of me for 2+ months and counting. Call me crazy...

Like NV did with Fermi? Tech preview at the end of September, architecture reveal in mid January, release in late March.

There's pretty much no reason not to do it, except for the fact you'd be killing your own sales...
Since AMD have priced according to NV pricing, more or less, NV have only had to drop the GTX580 price by ~10%. The rest of their cards are pretty much priced as they were 2 months ago. If they revealed details of their upcoming cards early, then they would be pressured into dropping their current prices, or people would just stop buying. They would hurt their competitor's sales, but they may also harm their own sales.

 

[tviceman]

http://www.anandtech.com/show/2977/...-gtx-470-6-months-late-was-it-worth-the-wait-

Review of GTX480/470 by Ryan Smith on 3/26/2010 7:00:00 PM

http://alienbabeltech.com/main/fermi-gf-100-nda-ends-tomorrow-at-9-pm-sunday-1172010
"Fermi GF-100 NDA Ends Tomorrow at 9 PM – Sunday, 1/17/2010"
http://www.anandtech.com/show/2918

There was a Fermi NDA which ended TWO MONTHS before actual reviews of the cards were up.
NDA documents don't necessarily mean reviews of real cards, let alone a launch.

And I'm letting NV off the "technology preview" that most sites had up in September 2009, over 3 months before the first NDA was up, and over 5 months before cards were reviewed or available, because I assume that wasn't something covered under NDA.

It could be a technical NDA. I don't know what it is about / involves. I should have worded my original statement better by saying "hardware sites" instead of "review sites".

 

[formulav8]

Alot of nvidia defense it seems. Everything so far points to no real kepler anytime soon. No known sampling, possibly just now ramping which would mean months away. No real specs. No nvidia confirmation. Hardly a stinking thing from nvidia except yields aren't good. (Unless something new has happened or I overlooked something?) Even Fermi had architecture previews well before release.

Hopefully they will release soon. But as of now, its looks very unlikely. So just enjoy you got something new this year so far even if its only the mean ole price happy AMD stuff .

 

[mkmitch]

Couldn't wait any longer as previous card died 4 months ago so purchased a 2Gb 6870 to tide me over, couldn't resist $163.00AR. Never read so much speculating in my life, ain't it fun though. Well anyway for some of us to read its fun. LOL

 

[gladiatorua]

I think a lot of people who bash AMD for high prices misunderstood one small detail. Current 7950 cards compete with 580gtx cards only temporary. Their actual competitor is 580gtx 3gb that costs 100$ more. Typical users with one(or even two) 1080p monitor doesn't need this much memory. So these cards are niche products with limited demand targeted at enthusiast that use eyefinity, enthusiasts who want top card, and people who love big numbers.
We can expect that cards with 1, 1,5 and/or 2 Gb memory to arrive shortly and cost at least 50$ less. Why would AMD&co release niche product? The obvious reason would be low yields and inability to satisfy higher demand.

I seriously doubt we will see kepler soon... Or it will be rushed roll-out with obvious consequences such as bugginess, short supply etc.

 

[lavaheadache]

Alot of nvidia defense it seems. Everything so far points to no real kepler anytime soon. No known sampling, possibly just now ramping which would mean months away. No real specs. No nvidia confirmation. Hardly a stinking thing from nvidia except yields aren't good. (Unless something new has happened or I overlooked something?) Even Fermi had architecture previews well before release.

Hopefully they will release soon. But as of now, its looks very unlikely. So just enjoy you got something new this year so far even if its only the mean ole price happy AMD stuff .

and I think they also pretty much laughed at the 7970 saying that they expected more from their competitor or something to that effect


edit** lol, i googled "nvidia we expected more" and the first hit was it

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/...cted-more-from-radeon-hd-7900q-exclusive.html


"Honestly, we expected more from our competitor’s new architecture."

 

[DeeJayeS]

Like NV did with Fermi? Tech preview at the end of September, architecture reveal in mid January, release in late March.

There's pretty much no reason not to do it, except for the fact you'd be killing your own sales...
Since AMD have priced according to NV pricing, more or less, NV have only had to drop the GTX580 price by ~10%. The rest of their cards are pretty much priced as they were 2 months ago. If they revealed details of their upcoming cards early, then they would be pressured into dropping their current prices, or people would just stop buying. They would hurt their competitor's sales, but they may also harm their own sales.

My example clearly assumed that the release of Kepler was "imminent." Obviously releasing details too "early" (however you want to define it) doesn't make sense.

Assuming an early April release of NV's first Kepler product (as some are speculating), how soon is too soon to start marketing efforts? Now? Next week? Mid March?

 

[mak360]

What was let out at the conference call is now being cushioned (Damage Control).

 

[Keysplayr]

What was let out at the conference call is now being cushioned (Damage Control).

LOL, there isn't any damage to control my friend. :thumbsup:

 

[Arzachel]

Couldn't wait any longer as previous card died 4 months ago so purchased a 2Gb 6870 to tide me over, couldn't resist $163.00AR. Never read so much speculating in my life, ain't it fun though. Well anyway for some of us to read its fun. LOL

This is the best case scenario for AMD. If you want to get the fastest, you go for Tahiti. If you're an OEM or just want a bit more powerful GPU for your HTPC you get Cape Verde. If you want performance/$ you get Barts or Cayman. Either AMD gets a price premium or they can clean out their last gen cards, both work well when you don't have enough wafers to push for volume.

 

[IlllI]

if release was soon, shouldn't we at least be getting some crappy, graininy pictures from some obscure chinese website of a 'naked' card? usually that happens, doesn't it?

 

[Jionix]

LOL, there isn't any damage to control my friend. :thumbsup:

You're living in the a dream world (or, maybe a just focus group haze). There is plenty damage right now for Nvidia to control --- The evidence that they haven't been able to grasp new nodes like the competition, the stigma of being late to market, "less than expected" yields, lack of 28nm production lines... Delays, delays, delays, changing roadmaps..

Does anyone remember this fiasco --- Where Nvidia said Kepler in 2011, everyone bought it, and then Nvidia backtracked?

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/graphi...o_Start_Shipping_Kepler_GPUs_by_Year_End.html

So don't tell me "Nvidia works on their own timeline, not that of the competition". Nvidia has had Kepler on their 2011 roadmaps. Nvidia has been saying Kepler was coming. They simply quietly change said roadmaps without explaination, and try and pass it off as if they have never announced anything.

 

[Keysplayr]

You're living in the a dream world (or, maybe a just focus group haze). There is plenty damage right now for Nvidia to control --- The evidence that they haven't been able to grasp new nodes like the competition, the stigma of being late to market, "less than expected" yields, lack of 28nm production lines... Delays, delays, delays, changing roadmaps..

Does anyone remember this fiasco --- Where Nvidia said Kepler in 2011, everyone bought it, and then Nvidia backtracked?

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/graphi...o_Start_Shipping_Kepler_GPUs_by_Year_End.html

So don't tell me "Nvidia works on their own timeline, not that of the competition". Nvidia has had Kepler on their 2011 roadmaps. Nvidia has been saying Kepler was coming. They simply quietly change said roadmaps without explaination, and try and pass it off as if they have never announced anything.

Then I'm dreaming. Because as far as I could see, you, like many others are basing all your ideas on..... wait for it..................not a damn thing. hehe.
You have no information and I think that is what is driving all you guys to madness right now.
All we have is a comment from folks attending CES Vegas that Nvidia expected more. I have to admit that would drive me nuts to. Not knowing.

 

[Jionix]

Then I'm dreaming. Because as far as I could see, you, like many others are basing all your ideas on..... wait for it..................not a damn thing. hehe.

Hey, you said it brother! Nvidia doesn't have a damn thing!

 

[thilanliyan]

Not sure if I missed it but what happened to the Borderlands 2 demo at PDXLan? I had read that it was supposed to run on Kepler, did that happen?

 

[MrK6]

and I think they also pretty much laughed at the 7970 saying that they expected more from their competitor or something to that effect

edit** lol, i googled "nvidia we expected more" and the first hit was it

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/...cted-more-from-radeon-hd-7900q-exclusive.html

"Honestly, we expected more from our competitor’s new architecture."

What would you expect them to say? "Our competitor released a solid product that blows away anything we're currently offering and we have nothing to respond with for the foreseeable future. Oh, and we're suffering from engineering and design oversights, again."

Then I'm dreaming. Because as far as I could see, you, like many others are basing all your ideas on..... wait for it..................not a damn thing. hehe.
You have no information and I think that is what is driving all you guys to madness right now.
All we have is a comment from folks attending CES Vegas that Nvidia expected more. I have to admit that would drive me nuts to. Not knowing.

Seems to me that the only thing driving anyone "nuts" is that AMD is completely dominating right now, and NVIDIA has nothing with which to respond. Engage full throttle damage control, amirite?

 

[3DVagabond]

Then I'm dreaming. Because as far as I could see, you, like many others are basing all your ideas on..... wait for it..................not a damn thing. hehe.
You have no information and I think that is what is driving all you guys to madness right now.
All we have is a comment from folks attending CES Vegas that Nvidia expected more. I have to admit that would drive me nuts to. Not knowing.

Who's being driven to madness? A bit dramatic, don't you think?

Most people are just disappointed that nVidia hasn't been able to compete, so far, and they are paying more for their cards because of it. Even if all they can muster up is a performance level response at $300.00, that should bring prices for AMD's big guns down by ~10%, maybe even a bit more. Anything positive would be good.