All good points, in fact I've made many of them over the past few years. I have a couple of comments:
1. As IDC strongly showed us on pgs1-2, a smaller die is inherently better for early adoption on a new node. This is likely why both camps used to do the original die shrink on low or mid-end cards before bringing it out to the high end. leading to:
2. If NV does that exact thing this time, aren't they just going back to what has historically worked well for them? And really, if their midrange "gtx 660ti++" or whatever they call it ends up competitive with 7970, won't that offer a viable alternative to NV fans for the early part of the year?
3. That's probably a smart strategy for NV, as instead of the "heat" that they got from rushing out gtx 480 before it was ready they would instead get lauded for competing with AMD using a midrange part. Heck, NV could even be 5-10% slower on average but still kick ass in games like civ5 and bf3 and they'd still be ok as long as the high end gets here by the fall.
I believe they'll put out a mid-range, or rather a mid die sized card(for nvidia), first. Every meager scrap of a rumour has stated it's a 3XXmm2 sized die and their big chip is going to be late this year.
I think it will compete with 7970 going on the rumoured die size being accurate. This is not necessarily always going to be true though, GTX 460 was almost the same size as 5870, but noticeably slower. It will at least be in the ballpark one way or the other I would think. I don't think we'll be lauding them for competing with a midrange card, likely just for bringing prices down on halo cards by $50 or so.
I think the actual mid-range will be AMD's 7870/7850 and some iteration of the GK104 from nvidia with disabled areas, with the full version being called a 680.
I think the card will come out as a 680 and be aimed squarely at the 7950 or the 7970. I doubt they will want to just release a card that amounts to a GTX 580 with a better price on a new process. I mean, they want to release a mid-range card and make money with it of course, but I can't see them wanting to play second fiddle right out the gate and not be seen as a performance contender.
I'm wagering we will see another 480 to 580 type situation with a 6 month window between the two. Release the 'GK104' we've all been hearing about as a 680 and a few scaled back versions - 670/660?, then six months later when they are ready, drop the big die chip as a 780/770. The difference this time being it is more of a chip unto its self, rather than a corrected and mildly improved chip - think GF104 to GF100 happening in reverse, similar chip but not one being the same as the other with disabled areas.
All guesswork of course. I want to see the 450-500mm2 monster die. Going on what AMD is doing with 350mm2 in the 7970, another 100-150mm2 is going to bring a heap of performance if the card can still be clocked fast without getting too hot. I just don't think we are seeing it until the fall though.
Right now the 7970 is sitting on 30% more performance just by turning up the clock speeds. I want to know what AMD is going to do with it, just go for a 7970 'ultra' and put out a highly clocked version of Tahiti or actually increase die size/shaders and a higher clock speed to boot. The more I think on it, the more I am inclined to wait until Nov/Dec of this year and see what is going on then. I don't even really need an upgrade, I just want to use less than three cards, I think I can wait to do that.
I just don't have much faith in nvidia on new nodes after 40nm, especially as they are delayed again and not ready to compete against AMD. I think they'll play it smart and put out this small die 'mid-range' card, but it sure is not going to wow anyone but fanboys performance wise compared to the 7970. My bet is that if they pushed for their large chip we'd see GTX 480 all over again, so they are aiming to in effect if we use their 40nm cards; release the GTX 460 first and then release the GTX 580 six months later without ever having released the 480. Smart, but it sure does suck if you want some options in the high end.
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