Nvidia Kepler Yields Lower Than Expected –CEO. Fermi 2.0?

[ocre]

I hope this isn't taken the wrong way but honestly.. I think AMD is slaying Nvidia in the standalone GPU market. I've been on Radeons since the 4870 series, when they had HDMI output with audio long before Nvidia did, then the 1st DX11 card. I bought the 5870 on launch day and have never regretted it. If I needed a new card I'd pickup a 7000series Radeon hands-down, and not wait 1 day for Kepler.
While I have little interest in Nvidia anymore because AMD has been providing the goods for quite some time for me.. but they need to get something out now, not later to compete with the 7000 series. That said, who really cares anymore with the Radeon lineup as good as it is and has been for years now.

I'm more excited about the next RADEON more than what Nv has on the way. That's not fanboy speak that's just the damn truth for a lot of us anymore.

absolutely!!!!

just look at their Q4 earnings, AMD is killing nvidia for sure....hahahaha!

nvidia protfits 116 milllion dollars. AMD not even 1 dollar (-177million). How many more times is nvidias profits over AMDs? anyone?


I guess those big dies that are hard to produce are still paying off!
Its clear nvidia is doing something right, whether the majority here is capable of seeing it or not.

Some more facts, nvidia earned over 4 billion for the entire 2011 year. I dont think AMD hasnt made that if you sum up everything since they bought ATI.

Clearly nvidia could do things differently, but its just as clear they are very successful in what they are doing currently. Considering all the decks stacked against them, they seem to be able to shine through the doom just fine.

I dont see any reason why nvidia would want to change what clearly works for them. It might be a painful process, but they seem to get a lot more out of it. With each generation Nvidia isnt just designing a GPU. They are designing chips that will be successful across several markets. Wouldnt seem logical that there is extra efforts involved?

You could take a very simple minded mentality and see a fraction of what matters. Simply put: lately, AMD does appear to be getting out their smaller nodes earlier than Nvidia. But obviously that is a narrow view lacking much more than it is capable of stating. It may give AMD bragging rights, but its not been making them a lot of money. Their GPU division clearly has a long way to go before it can even be remotely close to the entire success nvidia has created. Their progress has payed off extremely well for them thus far.

 

[Jionix]

You could take a very simple minded mentality and see a fraction of what matters. Simply put: lately, AMD does appear to be getting out their smaller nodes earlier than Nvidia. But obviously that is a narrow view lacking much more than it is capable of stating. It may give AMD bragging rights, but its not been making them a lot of money. Their GPU division clearly has a long way to go before it can even be remotely close to the entire success nvidia has created. Their progress has payed off extremely well for them thus far.

I'm pretty sure the Graphics Division of AMD has been pretty successful the last 2-3 years, it's simply that AMD wrote off losses against it.

 

[Obsoleet]

NVIDIA GTX480 3/26/2010 vs ATI HD5870 9/23/2009 (AMD launched first)
NVIDIA GTX580 9/11/2010 vs AMD HD6970 12/15/2010 (NVIDIA launched first)
NVIDIA GTX680 00/00/2012 vs AMD HD7970 01/09/2012 (AMD launched first)

NVIDIA launched 5 times ahead of ATI/AMD in the last 7 GPU releases.

To bring some clarity to this, in other words-
AMD has launched ahead of Nvidia 2 out of the last 3 GPU releases.
Since the rest were before the AMD takeover.

2/3s of the time there has been superior execution by AMD. After the Radeon 8000 series is released before Nvidia wakes up from their winter slumber, it will be a 75% execution advantage for AMD.

I don't think anyone doubts AMD's approach to GPU design is superior any longer, at this point. The large complex approach has been the wrong bet.
I won't argue that since the AMD takever, the Radeon product line has really picked up in quality/execution. I wasn't really interested in what they had until the 4870 personally, and didn't bite until the 5870.

 

[AnandThenMan]

We are talking about node changes and yields, not new SKUs. It's much easier to launch a new GPU on a known and tested process, quite another to do it on a brand new node.

 

[Obsoleet]

absolutely!!!!

just look at their Q4 earnings, AMD is killing nvidia for sure....hahahaha!
<snip>

I'd give you credit for your "research", if it meant anything. AMD is killing Nvidia in GPU design, period. Keep waiting for Kepler. It'll be worth it.

Are you a stock broker or financial analyst? I'm speaking for a majority of enthusiasts, not investors and those who bring out fallacious strawman arguements pointing to financials for companies with much more diverse businesses than just GPUs.

When you are sitting on <insert any (inferior) Nvidia product here>, when your buddies are using Radeon 7970s, do profit reports make you feel better about your purchase? Just curious, because the guys here with 7970s are sh*t-stomping whatever Nvidia hardware you might be using.

 

[bryanW1995]

You are either not paying attention, or are purposely avoiding reality.

GTX 580 - $465
7950 - $449

Where is the over pricing?

I paid $182 AR for my gtx 480 last year. THAT was a great price for great performance. Even recognizing that deals like that are pretty rare, I just don't see anybody getting that much performance for that low of a price in 2012. Ergo, I AM paying attention, and I am NOT avoiding reality.

 

[SirPauly]

I think AMD is slaying Nvidia in the standalone GPU market.

I hear this a lot but discrete desktop share would disagree with you.

 

[Grooveriding]

NVIDIA 8800GTX 11/08/2006 vs ATI 2900XT 5/14/2007 (NVIDIA launched first)

NVIDIA GTX280 6/16/2008 vs ATI HD4870 6/25/2008 (NVIDIA launched first)

NVIDIA GTX480 3/26/2010 vs ATI HD5870 9/23/2009 (AMD launched first)

NVIDIA GTX680 00/00/2012 vs AMD HD7970 01/09/2012 (AMD launched first)

Had to edit that for you to just stick to what is relevant here with new node releases, not refreshes. Bolded one is also a toss-out as it is what one would expect, a close launch, 9 days later, so a tie.

We are on two consecutive nodes now with nvidia late and not ready with options for us gamers on a new node in a timely fashion. Time will tell if it is another 6 month wait or just a few months.

 

[Imouto]

Fanboyism is over 9000 in this thread already.

Cut it off lol.

 

[ocre]

.... And despite the efforts of those with preferances like sirpauly and notty, in general people did not wait, but went out and bought the 5870, enjoying 7 months of premium dx11 graphics with a low price.
....

Wow!

But not hardly true. While AMDs graphics division did better than usual in those times, at the end of the day Nvidia still did fine. They still sold enough chips to make an okay profit. Fermi being late was a small bump in the road for nvidia. it was no where near as bad as many paint it out to be. Besides, nvidia would not be where they are right now had they not been so ambitious. obviously AMD and nvidia do things differently. Nvidia had much larger goals which wasnt easy to accomplish. its work that payed off tremendously for them. They are making more money than they ever have and its all a result of these complicated designs that many fail to completely comprehend.

 

[Obsoleet]

I hear this a lot but discrete desktop share would disagree with you.

Yet again, strawman argument. When Radeons are on the top of the benchmark charts, the attention shifts to marketshare, which consists of a decade+ of GPUs sitting out on the market and integrated. Or, financials.
The fact is, they have the fastest card on the market.

It's worth repeating- when you are sitting on <insert any (inferior) Nvidia product here>, when your buddies are using Radeon 7970s, do profit reports or 10-year market desktop shares make you feel better about your purchase? Just curious, because the guys here with 7970s are sh*t-stomping whatever Nvidia hardware you might be using.

 

[Grooveriding]

I hear this a lot but discrete desktop share would disagree with you.

If you are still keeping track of people using 8800GTs then sure, but AMD has more presence in new technology; DX11, than nvidia.

A more relevant statistic than overall market share, margins, profits and revenues etc. ad nauseam. Gamers and PC enthusiasts in the past several years have picked AMD more than they have nvidia for DX11 parts. Most of us don't give a crap about either company's finances, we care about exciting new hardware and it being available to buy.

AMD executing better on new nodes since 40nm and gamer's higher adoption of DX11 cards from AMD seems to support that enthusiasts want new hardware sooner, rather than waiting till later. Take a look at any of the popular forums, lots of happy gamers with 7970x1 x2 x3 x4 and new performance levels, enjoying games - not financial analysis.

 

[ocre]

...

I don't think anyone doubts AMD's approach to GPU design is superior any longer, at this point. The large complex approach has been the wrong bet....

..... AMD is killing Nvidia in GPU design, period. Keep waiting for Kepler. It'll be worth it.

Are you kidding????

nvidia is making tons of money off these complex designs. Something AMD has not been able to do. Can you not wrap your heads around this? its not even remotely complex. These designs are making Nvidia cash AMD can only dream of.

AMD GPU division is not even close to matching nvidias success. Any claims of AMD doctoring the books to hide their GPU profits is completely in the imagination.

These are cold hard facts. You would have to be very irrational to see this. To not understand this really makes me wonder????

You could say you prefer AMD over nvidia but to say that its the wrong approach or a bad design? thats complete insanity. Its like a mad house!!!!

 

[SirPauly]

And despite the efforts of those with preferances like sirpauly and notty, in general people did not wait, but went out and bought the 5870, enjoying 7 months of premium dx11 graphics with a low price.

Nah, waited for a lesser price with similar performance, stronger tessellation and GPU compute, DirectX 10 and 11 TA and super-sampled, more flexibility with TA, GPU Physics and 3d stereo, with filtering that didn't suffer from broken filtering transitions, over-clocked and scaled well. Still using the product today and has GTX 570 performance with the same feature set, when over-clocked. Cool and quiet with a twin frozr 2 cooler.

 

[AnandThenMan]

Nah, waited for a lesser price with similar performance, stronger tessellation and GPU compute, DirectX 10 and 11 TA and super-sampled, more flexibility with TA, GPU Physics and 3d stereo, with filtering that didn't suffer from broken filtering transitions, over-clocked and scaled well. Still using the product today and has GTX 570 performance with the same feature set, when over-clocked. Cool and quiet with a twin frozr 2 cooler.

What monitor do you have out of curiosity.

 

[bryanW1995]

As has been stated, you won't see that much competition with production at TSMC as slow as it is. You need volume to have a price war. Also, there's no way to argue that the 79xx cards aren't a value, which is exception because they are flagship GPUs. Coming from someone with a GTX 480, which was about one of the worst value cards in generations, that's ironic.

I paid $182 AR for my gtx 480 a few months ago. How's that for value? And my value perception is slanted by that deal because I don't HAVE to upgrade for a while, anyway. I paid around $50 ($147-$100) for my gtx 460-768 usage of 15-16 months, and I'll be happy to do that again with the gtx 480, I'm just concerned that we still won't have something that's 50% faster than my card available for less than $200 in 2012 or, heaven forbid, even in 2013.

Your TSMC comments are spot-on. I do think that we'll start to see things heat up this fall, but with Read's stated goal of increasing profits and jhh's constant focus on them already, I think that we might be in for a tough row to hoe for gpu bargain-shoppers.

 

[SirPauly]

If you are still keeping track of people using 8800GTs then sure, but AMD has more presence in new technology; DX11, than nvidia.

ACtually I am talking about what the IHV's actually ship during a quarter -- have no clue where you're getting 8800 GT's from.

 

[SirPauly]

What monitor do you have out of curiosity.

120hz 1080P monitor.

 

[AnandThenMan]

120hz 1080P monitor.

Can you be slightly more specific? Like make/model? I'm asking because I know someone that has been bugging me about going 3D and I don't know much about the displays required and what is a good one to get.

 

[bryanW1995]

No doubt it has held up well, to the point with the current games on the market I am only after a marginal 20-30% increase in performance over what I have from 3 480s, but want it from 2 cards instead of 3. Pretty decent considering the resolution I play at. I bought into the 480s for the 1.5GB VRAM and SLI scaling was better than it was on the 5XXX series.

What I do see is a new pattern now of nvidia's big die strategy causing them problems in transitioning to new nodes, or perhaps it is attributable to the people who work there that are responsible for making this all happen. First we saw it on 40nm, now we're on 28nm and they're delayed again.

I'm not interested in how it affects them as a company, but for gamers and enthusiasts it's a letdown having to wait on their offerings. On 40nm you didn't hear as much crying over it because AMD was selling their 5870/5850 so cheap relative to the performance and there was a good option. This time round everyone is worked up because AMD is charging a price more in line with what we're used to for halo GPUs and there is this wild hope nvidia is going to undercut them

If the rumour is true that nvidia is first releasing a card with a chip that has a die size similar to Tahiti, I doubt we'll see another space heater, but I'll bet the big chip rumoured to release late this year could be a roaster

AMD has been showing a better ability to handle these new nodes than nvidia did, they did just fine with 40nm whereas nvidia didn't. Now on 28nm again they have parts out and nvidia doesn't, so I'd put the problem in nvidia's hands, not the foundry making the parts. If the first card nvidia releases on 28nm is about the same die size as Tahiti, I think that would give even more foundation to them having trouble with new nodes compared to AMD.

All good points, in fact I've made many of them over the past few years. I have a couple of comments:

1. As IDC strongly showed us on pgs1-2, a smaller die is inherently better for early adoption on a new node. This is likely why both camps used to do the original die shrink on low or mid-end cards before bringing it out to the high end. leading to:
2. If NV does that exact thing this time, aren't they just going back to what has historically worked well for them? And really, if their midrange "gtx 660ti++" or whatever they call it ends up competitive with 7970, won't that offer a viable alternative to NV fans for the early part of the year?
3. That's probably a smart strategy for NV, as instead of the "heat" that they got from rushing out gtx 480 before it was ready they would instead get lauded for competing with AMD using a midrange part. Heck, NV could even be 5-10% slower on average but still kick ass in games like civ5 and bf3 and they'd still be ok as long as the high end gets here by the fall.

 

[bryanW1995]

Link?

NewEgg has the cheapest GTX580 listed at $465, and thats for a gigantic (3 slot) Galaxy card. There are very few below $499.

I paid $479 for my 7950. And its an OC version, not the cheaper $450 reference card.

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16814162073

$423 shipped AR, that beats your card's price by $56. That cooler is ridiculous, but I'd bet that it's pretty effective. And I don't know about you, but a 3 slot cooler is no inconvenience for me, even with my mATX mobo.

 

[bryanW1995]

Because it IS a fact. Of course, you don't want to admit it because you're an "NVIDIA Focus Group Member." If I'm honest, I can't take anything you say regarding graphics cards seriously because of it.

And anyway, even though GK110 won't be here soon, GK104 will probably still be able to compete with Tahiti and Pitcairn, so y u mad?

Instead of resorting to personal attacks, why don't you provide some sort of "proof" to back up your statement?

By the way, I'm not saying that you're wrong, b/c it does make sense that they would consider bringing out gk104 first, but I just think that you're going about things the wrong way. Attack the message not the messenger.

 

[Grooveriding]

ACtually I am talking about what the IHV's actually ship during a quarter -- have no clue where you're getting 8800 GT's from.

You think they only sell DX11 cards ?

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produ...&isNodeId=1&Description=geforce+gt220&x=0&y=0
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produ...CH&N=-1&isNodeId=1&Description=9500gt&x=0&y=0
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produ...-1&isNodeId=1&Description=geforce+210&x=0&y=0
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produ...1&isNodeId=1&Description=geforce+8400&x=0&y=0

They are still pumping out plenty of DX10 stuff.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16814162073

$423 shipped AR, that beats your card's price by $56. That cooler is ridiculous, but I'd bet that it's pretty effective. And I don't know about you, but a 3 slot cooler is no inconvenience for me, even with my mATX mobo.

AR is not upfront price. You still have to pay full pricing when you buy and hope you get the rebate check two-three months later after you send it.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

Instead of resorting to personal attacks, why don't you provide some sort of "proof" to back up your statement?

By the way, I'm not saying that you're wrong, b/c it does make sense that they would consider bringing out gk104 first, but I just think that you're going about things the wrong way. Attack the message not the messenger.

I'm sorry that you haven't bothered to read news articles for... what... a month now?

GK104 in April and GK110 in Q3 or Q4 2012, simple.